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Delivery estimate

Delivery estimate

Just did a mental calculation. If I order a Model S now, it will be delivered "Late March". Call it April by Tesla standard. From another Factory Tour post, it seems they are producing more S than X, so that means if your MX is not currently in production, you likely won't see your cars until April or May. So here's my guesstimate on the range of delivery schedule, assuming Tesla has already resolved their whatever design/manufacturing/supply chain problems now (big if):

-Remaining confirmed signature orders: Feb-March
-Production orders with VIN (P90D with premium): April - June
-Rest of P90D orders without VIN currently (me!): June - August
-90D orders: Sept- Dec
-70D orders: 2017
-Model 3: 2019

I hope I am wrong with this estimate. When I ordered the P90D it was misleading for the order page to say "early 2016". That was one of my reasons I "upgraded" to the P. I hope I am also wrong that P90D orders will be produced in the sequence of wait list instead of priority for premium package--slap in the face for those of us who waited 2-3 years to get their cars after people with premium orders several thousand spots behind on the "waiting list". I have to reset my expectations of Tesla.

mercc3650 | 30 gennaio 2016

@DarthB: Good estimates in my opinion.

I understand your frustration. Disappointed in Tesla myself. Sure they make awesome cars, and sure they will "fix" the problems, and sure there will be cheerleaders like Ankit saying all good things and using other peoples money to tell them what to do, and making others with FWD that hit the garage and get damage say no big deal, Tesla will fix it (which doesn't help anyone, especially the person it happened to). Hard to change peoples idea/mind that don't use logic and that don't have insight to realize that when people spend a lot of money, expectations are "expected" and should be met and problems should be fixed instead of delaying deliveries. Better to be a realist than a cheerleader in my opinion as some people are on these forums. Waiting patiently with you...

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

You are wrong. Tesla will clear the backlog in this year only. And 3 is coming in late 2017. But hey, its my opinion. I could be wrong.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@Elguapo: Looks reasonable/ realistic. The optimist would say they will deliver 80,000 units, 85 produced 50:50 split S:X;
The realist: 70-75 delivered; 80 produced. The pessimist: 65 delivered ;70 produced

I hope for the optimistic numbers; doubt the pessimistic numbers and accept the most likely path is the realistic numbers.

We all state our opinions as facts with these numbers. Just like we all say someone else's opinion is wrong because ours must be right.

elguapo | 30 gennaio 2016

@AIMc Agreed.

@DarthB I think you're probably really close. I'd move everything after the Sigs up a month. That is, I do think some production P90Ds will deliver in March, 90s in July/August and I do believe 70s will be delivered latter half of Q4.

How's that for a bit of optimism, @AIMc? :-)

I hope these estimates are off, but I do want the best product ultimately.

Blue X | 30 gennaio 2016

Over at TMC, someone remarked that an engineer at the exclusive viewing event said 90Ds would start in June. Add 50% Tesla delay factor and you get August.

OP is probably pretty close to accurate....hoping I see mine before October.

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

@AIMc
How did you replied to @elguapo before he made his comment? I think it's a forum error.

NumberOne | 30 gennaio 2016

@ Everyone. If you order a Model S today and the wait is almost 60 days (There has been times where the wait was close to 30 days), it points to one of two things. A significant increase in Model S orders, or stable S orders and increased X production. Only time will tell. I am somewhat tired of waiting, but I look forward to getting my car. I would not take any stock in anything any Tesla employee says about the production schedule. Only a select few people actually have those details.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@Ankit: No error...did you not know that I am the 'X forum moderator'? Thus, I can interweave my posts anywhere I wish? Delete posts and hand out 'time outs'.....

Oh, wait, that is the TMC forum....

No wait....That was a dream/nightmare :)

carlk | 30 gennaio 2016

A long time Tesla employee whom I have met at friend's house many times over the years just offered to help check the status of my order for me. I did not ask for any details but it does not sound like there is a significant production problem or he would not even volunteer to do that. He also said that X a great car he wish he could afford one. I take it as another good sign.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@CarlK: Good to hear! Hope that is accurate

speyerj | 30 gennaio 2016

I'd kill for an insider straight answer. My DS told me that we were in pre-production and so we got our NEMA installed and locked our loan rate...and now we're back into "no idea when delivery will be" land.

johnse | 30 gennaio 2016

OP estimates are based on the implied assumptions that:
The current mix of Model X vs Model S on the line are indicative of the future mix.
The projection of a late March Model S delivery for new orders is based on a steady state of Model S production numbers.

However, we know that the plan (however well it is being executed) is to increase Model X production rapidly. That will certainly change the mix of models on the line. Also Elon stated in the Q3 earnings call that they will probably push Model X production to a higher rate than Model S when they get to the point that is feasible so as to more quickly work through the Model X backlog.

I don't have any predictions. However, I do not see the items which the OP referenced as being any indicator that the plan is being pushed out. In fact, if the X production is ramping they way they want, and to a mix favoring the X production, I would expect Model S latency to increase--exactly what the OP stated.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@johnse: Excellent post, as usual. The event in Fremont last night had one person indicating that the mix he saw on the line as 10:1 (S/X). That can change at any given moment but it the most recent small data point.

I do not agree with your statement that 'the model X production is ramping the way they want'. It is a very poorly kept secret that at the time of the reveal in late September that it was TM's intention to have all Sigs delivered by Dec 31st. I was personally told this at the reveal by a TM staffer who was in a position to know (the policy) as were other people at the event.

I am confident that once whatever issues are eliminated that there will be a quick ramp and that at one point the Xs on the assembly line will be greater than the Ss.

I also have no predictions when that will happen.

elguapo | 30 gennaio 2016

Okay, here's a more optimistic take on some of my prior posts. My reason for this post has to do solely with the fact that at the Fremont event (as can be seen by the TMC link posted by @AIMc - thank you!), there were production VINs in the 440s. That's like 30-40 away from my VIN yet I am not supposed to expect mine until late March.

I am going to guess TM wouldn't demo those cars if they had issues with the doors, etc. That said, it looks like it was a wide open space, so some of the previously reported issues may not have been noticeable. Regardless, here goes...

It is possible that there was some issue (general consensus on that, I believe), but it's been fixed (I believe it has) and they're ramping up BUT, the hold up is there are a bunch of a) delivered sigs that must be retrofitted and b) undelivered sigs that are either at factory or SC and must be retrofitted. It probably takes much longer to take something apart and put it back together again than to put it together on the line.

So the delay now could simply be the need to deliver sigs before production vehicles and some of those sigs aren't ready due to whatever the "issues" were.

The point is, I am beginning to think they've got production figured out now, but the sigs are the hold up.

scotteeboy71 | 30 gennaio 2016

Shortly before confirming my X I switched from a 90d to a 70d. I'm hoping mid-late 2016 as TM has indicated. Sucks because I placed my order back in '14 but it is what it is. It's either that or go with Model S..

carlk | 30 gennaio 2016

He called me when he heard from my friend that I'm waiting for my X order. I did not want to ask him anything he should not say but my feeling is he wouldn't have called me just to give me disappoint news later if production is stalling. That is actually good enough for me already.

dortor | 30 gennaio 2016

Pre-production is a BS status - All Model X's that will ever be produced are currently in pre-production. It's what DS's tell you when they have nothing to share that us meaningful.

Tesla is fail and they don't know how to make this SUV.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@dortor and @CarlK: I do believe TM will get the X 'right' and start to produce them in quantity. The question in my mine is not *IF* but *WHEN*?

I do believe production has slowed/stalled (completely stopped: NO)

How much? I do not know

What I can say with certainty is that the plan was to deliver ALL Sigs before Dec 31st. There is firm evidence this has not happened.

Beyond that...we are all guessing/giving opinions.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

mine id mind :) (Hope the closing of the forum is to reopen with 'EDIT')

mbergen21 | 30 gennaio 2016

Pre-production means they are sourcing parts for your vehicle. Pre-production seems to last 1-2 weeks. My P90D with everything except Ludi and tow left the factory about a week ago, and is on a train bound for Milford CT. They prep the car there and I am picking up at the Mt. Kisco, NY SC. My DS says to expect a longer than norman prep time, but I am still thinking a February delivery. It will likely come before some Sigs. I am not sure why. I confirmed 12/2.

vperl | 30 gennaio 2016

Care not.

I want a job that has no repercussions for failure to produce.

I work cheap.

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

I think companies like BMW, Audi will be forced to adopt features like FWD, panoramic windshield, electric seats after Model X damages their sales to a huge extent.

NumberOne | 30 gennaio 2016

I think Sigs have less to do with being first and more to do with having all the options except Ludi mode, and the ability to choose sig red as a color option. Naturally most sigs came first, but there were procrastinators amongst the sigs that will get their cars after non sig deliveries started. There may be a few exceptions but for the most part it has to do with people delaying their configuration. Either way, thank you for great news @mbergen21.

AlMc | 30 gennaio 2016

@Ankit: You may be right..BUT...Before we (and they) decide on those features, let us make sure that all those new things work well consistently on the X....OK?

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

Okay.

elguapo | 30 gennaio 2016

@mbergen21 Thanks for the info. This is the first I've heard of anyone with a production model getting a concrete (relatively) delivery date. What's the general range of your VIN?

speyerj | 30 gennaio 2016

Tesla cannot damage anyone's sales to a significant extent if they can't deliver vehicles in quantity. If 500,000 want to buy a luxury car and there are only 65,000 Tesla's made this year, the majority of those buyers will buy something else. It is, in general, rare for someone to delay a purchase by >1 year due to order backlog.

That's not to say that Tesla can't be a mover in the market, but don't kid yourself in thinking that they're hurting BMW's bottom line yet with the quantities they are producing.

georgehawley.fl.us | 30 gennaio 2016

@AlMc: I think your "realistic" estimates are, well, er realistic. :-))

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

It's not about only this year. Year after year damage is accumulating for companies like BMW and Audi. A company that innovates has the luxury to demand premium price for its products. Model S is a common car (no offense, in comparison to X). But X is an extraordinary achievement. Once its superiority is established by real market feedback, Tesla can bump up its price. On the other hand, BMW and Audi will feel the heat on their margins as their image suffers due to rehashing same stuff and again. It's not enough to sell a product in huge numbers to make good profit. People should be ready to pay a premium.
It's already a common phenomena with Model S. People sell their recent Model S to get the latest Model S. In my knowledge, this doesn't happen with any other company. (my humble opinion which can be wrong).

carlk | 30 gennaio 2016

@speyerj

There might be 500,000 people who want a luxury car but I don't think there are that many who could afford an $100K car. Porsche sells how many Cayennes in the US in a year? 40K? 50K? Tesla just need to take 10~20K away from it to make Porsche to feel some real pain. Imo I can't think of a reason anyone would want to buy a Cayenne when there is the X. OK Cayenne does not have a falcon wing door that could fail but so is my bicycle.

paradis | 30 gennaio 2016

Not sure this lends any clarity to the topic but I have been speaking or emailing to my DS every week for the past month. 3 weeks ago, my Production Vin # 21X was "in early production". 2 weeks ago it was "on the assembly line in the later stages of production" and today it is still "in late stage of production" and my hope for February is fast fading to March. Since my Swapalease is up March 1st, and can't be extended, I'm now in limbo. My DS said I am welcome to check in with him but the next notification I will get is when it arrives at the DS. I asked him to at least let me know when it ships - we'll see.

paradis | 30 gennaio 2016

Not sure this lends any clarity to the topic but I have been speaking or emailing to my DS every week for the past month. 3 weeks ago, my Production Vin # 21X was "in early production". 2 weeks ago it was "on the assembly line in the later stages of production" and today it is still "in late stage of production" and my hope for February is fast fading to March. Since my Swapalease is up March 1st, and can't be extended, I'm now in limbo. My DS said I am welcome to check in with him but the next notification I will get is when it arrives at the SC. I asked him to at least let me know when it ships - we'll see.

paradis | 30 gennaio 2016

Sorry - don't know what happened with the double post. Thought I was just changing DS to SC and would up with 2. Maybe the new upgrade will allow editing and deletion.

c3 | 30 gennaio 2016

@Ankit

According to Musk, Tesla will not turn profitable until 2020. They will not do that without the Model 3, which, if history is any predictor, is not going to happen until 2018. I am a fan of Tesla, but make no mistake, this is a company that has to focus on execution if it is going to be around five years from now, let alone be challenging the large established players. The market for $100K plus luxury SUVs is not big enough to sustain Tesla if this is all they have. Bumping up the price of MX will only further reduce the available market size.

BMW already has the i3 which is 3 years ahead of the Model S at a price point that is within reach of the masses. They reportedly will increase range by 50% this year and one can imagine they will do so again by the time the M3 is out. They are profitable and very committed to making electric vehicles. Drive one before you dismiss it. It is a great little commuter car.

Audi has announced the Q6 e-tron for 2018. On paper it looks to be a very interesting car that will come in under the MX price point and be appealing to those who don't need more than 4 seats. I think the MX will still reign supreme as the ultimate luxury SUV in that time frame, but I predict that Audi is going to do very well in the market segment just below the MX.

I believe Tesla has done a great job of showing the world that electric propulsion is superior to the ICE at a time when emissions is on everyone's minds. My concern for them is that their desire to innovate on non-critical things like doors and seats is slowing them down and allowing the competition to catch up in the areas that matter to most buyers (range, safety, performance).

When the dust settles, I believe that Tesla will continue to grow and become an important player in the automotive field. I don't see them displacing either BMW or Audi anytime soon, however.

Ankit Mishra | 30 gennaio 2016

Tesla can be profitable now but it chooses to reinvest its profits into growth. It is because they want to make Model 3 that they are not profitable now. As the prices of batteries falls their profits are going to increase more and more. Execution of Tesla is just fine. Look at the continuous growth it is making. About 17000 Model were delivered in last quarter. Cars based on technology that was non existent few years ago. It built its market out of nowhere just because of the hard work it puts in car.
In my opinion BMW and Audi etc should get there act together if they want to around in next 5 years. You choose to trust what BMW will "reportedly" do but don't acknowledge the execution and word of Tesla and doubt its future. They are profitable because they are just mass producing same stuff over and over again. Committed to making electric vehicles? Are you sure?
Thank You for at least accepting the possibility that X is going to do fine. I hope Audi also does fine with its E-tron.
Now, Tesla is the defining factor in EV revolution. Not Audi. Not BMW. Tesla needs to make extraordinary cars and damage sales of BMW and Audi so that they are forced to make innovative electric cars. These doors and seats are part of that plan. If an EV is just as good as an ICE, most of people wont buy the EV. It is a developing technology and cant fight with combustion engine technology on which decades of research and billions of dollars have been spent.
BMW and Audi cant match Tesla if they don't start to innovate. Its just a matter of time when they realise Tesla has destroyed them.
(my humble opinion. I can be wrong)

c3 | 31 gennaio 2016

@Ankit

Not worth debating hypotheticals. Only time will tell how these companies fare with respect to each other in the future. I am certainly hoping that Tesla does well.

You make assertions about what the market wants which I cannot debate since I do not have the research to say one way or the other. I can only say with 100% certainty what has motivated my decision to purchase a Tesla. Please believe me when I tell you that I am buying the MX in spite of the FWDs and non traditional rear seats, not because of them. The same was true of my BMW i3 purchase which was made in spite of their ill conceived coach style doors. I don't buy things because they are cool. I buy things because they serve my needs. From my perspective FWDs offer better access to 3rd row seats for the 7s configuration (only) and less back breaking insertion and removal of babies into car seats. My kids are grown and I don't need seating for seven. I don't care if they open in tight parking situations since the front doors will not. I would prefer that they open fully when parked in my garage which they will not. I would prefer not to have to worry about the sensors failing to detect unusual obstacles (diagonal wire anchoring a telephone pole, sprinkler head in a low parking garage, etc) resulting in scratched paint. For those that value the cool factor or find other utility in the design, I respect your opinions and am making no effort to change your view. I am simply saying that FWDs are a negative for me. If they are reliable and don't dump rain water or snow on my passengers, I will learn to live with them. If I start in on the lack of folding second row seats, this reply will get very long. Suffice it to say, I find the tilting 2nd row seats to be a step backward in automotive interior design, especially in a sport UTILITY vehicle.

Please realize that I am a fan of Tesla and am voting with my dollars to purchase an MX. My admiration for what I value in the design, however, will not moderate what I find deficient in the design. Similarly, my admiration for the innovation Tesla has brought to the market, will not prevent me from admiring the innovation other brands have delivered.

nachiappan | 31 gennaio 2016

I have confirmed order for a 90D on Jan 17. My friend has a ordered a P90D and has a delivery date of Feb 7, but is going to take delivery on valentines day for his wife. It is not a signature series . Its a regular P90D.

AlMc | 31 gennaio 2016

@c3: I am going to paste and copy your posts and put my 'name' on them (j/k).

Seriously: You articulate the feeling of many people here that as I have indicated can be 'loyal' to TM (and the mission statement) and still have constructive criticism about their time frames estimates and decisions about certain design choices/lack of options.

paradis | 31 gennaio 2016

@nachiappan - What is your friend's Vin and location?

Ankit Mishra | 31 gennaio 2016

I can't find any assertions that I have made. I have surely said Tesla is more innovative than other companies. I have also assumed people like innovation. If you were pointing this out, then its fine. I have assumed that people like innovation.
I want to clear my stand about FWD and pedestal seats. My point of view comes from the goal that Tesla designed them with and from owner feedback. I would like to point out that I am not an owner not I have seen a X.
I have read owner feedbacks about those doors. They have said the are extremely useful. In fact, almost all of them have said to love them. You are free to check their posts. And not only with 7 row seats, even in the six seat if you enter through middle instead of moving seats ahead you will have bend down because of low space available in the middle of car.
I have listened carefully to what Elon has said about these doors. The goal was unprecedented access, the other option was sliding doors. Sliding doors damage the aesthetics of the car. Now you can say that I am assuming this but my opinions are based in my understanding of the world. I understand that to some people aesthetics won't matter or the contraption of sliding doors doesn't diminish the aesthetics for them. But to most people, a good looking car matters. And those doors look good.
Now about seats. Almost none of them have talked about their non folding capability. I will assume worse and say they have accepted this limitation as there is nothing they can do about it. They would love to have folding capability but they are happy about the car.
I can understand that you might desire folding seats but may still buy the car. I won't defend the non folding seats and would understand if you consider them as a drawback of X. But I disagree with your opinion of FWD.
Also, I disagree with your fear about these doors hitting stuff. I would like to use an analogy here in hope of making my point easily. They are just like autopilot. A piece of machinery.

DarthB | 31 gennaio 2016

@nachiappan that's great news that there's finally a delivery for a production P90D! May I know what is your wait list #/reservation date?

carlk | 31 gennaio 2016

@nachiappan Is there any details you know of your friend's order, VIN and ordering date?

drajaydas | 31 gennaio 2016

All eager to hear Nachiappan's reply :D
Mishra Ji, I agree with you on your comments.
The only thing I believe that is going wrong is Tesla not sticking to it's dates.
If you say delivery by July, make sure it is done by July. If you have don't know for sure, just don't say anything.

AlMc | 31 gennaio 2016

Hopefully all the Sigs that have configured and confirmed will get their vehicles before production reservation holders. It does not affect me personally but I know that was a point of contention with the S roll out.

As far as I am personally concerned....any X delivered is good news.

carlk | 31 gennaio 2016

@drajaydas

If you say delivery by July, make sure it is done by July. If you have don't know for sure, just don't say anything.

I think Tesla has tried both. Neither worked for this crowed.

AlMc | 31 gennaio 2016

@CarlK: It would have worked for *this* crowd or any crowd IF TM/EM could meet their self imposed deadlines.

Yes, it would be a point of contention IF TM/EM gave out NO info but if they had done that consistently throughout their history it would be easy to accept.

However, when half the time they give out dates that they don't meet, then when they don't meet them they go 'radio silent' the *crowd* (not some, like yourself) has every right to voice their opinion (constructive criticism) about how communication is a short coming of the company.

vperl | 31 gennaio 2016

Meanwhile in Fremont, radio silence.

(Insert appropriate cliché here)

elguapo | 31 gennaio 2016

@AIMc While I'd love to see production deliveries start, I fear it will start another uproar from both sig holders who don't have their cars yet and production holders when the VINs are all delivered out of order without an explanation. I am a huge supporter and very patient, but it could turn into a real mess soon.

vperl | 31 gennaio 2016

What is happening, poor planning .

If the had a plan.

Like I have mentioned before, I never had a position that allowed me to make multiple blunders without consequences.

elguapo | 31 gennaio 2016

@vperl Clearly, you've never been a meteorologist!

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