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Standard battery delivery delayed?

Standard battery delivery delayed?

I made my Model 3 reservation on the first day and have been (not so) patiently awaiting its delivery. The Tesla site says if I want the standard battery, which I do, delivery is expected “early 2018.” I’m willing to be generous and say any time before July fits that definition. But lately I’ve heard rumors that Tesla is going to only fill orders for the extended range battery for the foreseeable future and anyone who wants a standard battery is likely going to have to wait until 2019. Has anyone else heard this or better yet does anyone know if there is an official word from Tesla on it? I would love some reassurance that standard batteries really are going to be available in the near future.

stevea137 | 16 gennaio 2018

Welcome to Tesla and welcome to "coming soon" ;)

I'm guessing you're new to these parts and must be completely oblivious to the production delays Tesla went through in late 2017 (and is still recovering from). I suggest reading some other threads on this and other forums as we are getting tired of retyping the same info over and over again. You can search tesla forums using these sites: http://www.volkerize.com/ and http://www.janeen.com/tmfans

In short, you're suspicions are probably correct. Standard range M3's probably won't even start production until the second half of the year. And if you haven't gotten a config invite yet, you can assume you are not near the front of any lines.

andy.connor.e | 16 gennaio 2018

Everything was delayed. Imagine their goal of 5k/wk as the day when standard is available. If their goal was pushed from Dec to March, expect standard battery to start being made around then. And, additionally, all of the current reservations that are waiting for standard will have to be filled prior to new reservations.

KP in NPT | 16 gennaio 2018

I would be very surprised if the standard battery was pushed to 2019. I don't know where you hear your rumors but that one sounds like it was pulled out of someone's posterior.

No one knows when it will come but all we can go on is the delivery estimates. While I don't think July fits the definition of "early" 2018, there is nothing wrong with setting expectations and being pleasantly surprised if they are beat.

burdogg | 16 gennaio 2018

KP - there are some that are adamant that Tesla has no desire to even do the standard range battery. I have had some debates on here and one on facebook. It seems there are many that think Tesla will do what is best for their pockets and screw the fact that they have always promised this $35,000 car and that we estimate Early 2018.

I don't know what they will do, but I do believe there will be huge uproar among customers AND media if Tesla does not produce the standard range before 2019. Yet there are still those that act like they know best - maybe they do, but to put it out there as fact just bugs the crap out of me.

dsvick | 16 gennaio 2018

I think they're going to have to start SR sooner rather than later, certainly before they make all the LR cars. Right now, when you get invited to configure, you can either configure and order or delay for some other option/time frame.

They have a rough idea of how many people are holding out for SR, I think they'll open it up for that when that number hits what they think they can produce in a reasonable amount of time. At that point there won't be any more invites sent until they clear them out.

andy.connor.e | 16 gennaio 2018

I've covered this thought in another topic. Im pretty sure that the availability date for the SR is not a 'date-based' availability. Im pretty sure the SR is a 'production-rate' availability. In the sense that their initial goal was to have production speed at 5k/wk by the end of 2017. So you could infer that SR would start production shortly after hitting 5k/wk. It seems pretty likely that all of the options that are "coming soon" are going to be available based on production speed.

cbardeen | 16 gennaio 2018

The initial production problems were with the assembly of battery modules and they had to rewrite all of the software controlling the robotics to get the LR modules produced. Assume they will also have to rewrite the software to produce the SR battery modules, and if they are on the same machines, it could mean that testing SR manufacture would impair LR production. Anyone know if LR and SR will share the same line at the Gigafactory? This could delay the relative timing of SR start relative to original ramp plans.

andy.connor.e | 16 gennaio 2018

Lets not get worked up with speculation on how delays could form. This is unnecessary stress.

weluvm3 | 16 gennaio 2018

They still have a massive backlog of people wanting LR Model 3's, and the LR is apparently more profitable.

Draw your own conclusions from that.

Bri | 16 gennaio 2018

If in fact the LR is more profitable it would fit with EMs strategy (which he has been very upfront about from the beginning) of having more expensive cars generate the cash flow to produce more affordable cars, “weluvm3”.

burdogg | 16 gennaio 2018

If that is the case - why did they say the standard range would come before AWD - which, AWD ups the profitability?

I get what you are all saying, but Tesla has set up the delivery dates estimates (yes they are estimates), knowing full well that there would always be demand for the long range battery. Before the initial delay, they had a three month window for the standard range. After the delay, they changed it to early 2018 (which still fell in the 1st delivery window they had for the standard range). Sure, there has been even another slip of when the 5,000 per week is, but originally that was end of Dec - and the standard range was to come out right around that time. SO, if following andy's thought process - would still make the standard range around end of Q2.

Now, what Tesla does? We don't know and all have opinions. Again, my personal opinion is, Tesla will put themselves in a very bad position if they choose to delay the standard range until 2019 :)

I will go out on a limb and say, they will start delivering standard range by July 2018.

Does anyone think they will deliver all wheel drive before they do the standard range? Curious...

KP in NPT | 16 gennaio 2018

I wouldn't be surprised if AWD and SR come at the same time.

weluvm3 | 16 gennaio 2018

If AWD was available today, I'd buy it.

JuJo0 | 16 gennaio 2018

I wouldn't be surprised either if they came out at the same time, but I would imagine that they would push out SR first if they weren't.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 16 gennaio 2018

burdogg: It was precisely because of that potential media uproar that I hoped Tesla would only release the base version of Model 3 for reviews prior to the availability of the Performance edition that is sure to come. Even if 90% or better of initial orders placed for Model 3 were for the Long Range version (instead of 100% as is the case now) it would have been good to allow people the opportunity to Configure the base car with no options. Going the way Tesla did, with a 'First Production' setup would have worked far better if they had reached their Production levels in 2017 as expected. Since they didn't, it appears that strategy was ineffective.

There is the point that a maxed out BMW M3 or Mercedes-AMG C63 can clear $95,000 with an Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio right behind them. I still expect a Performance edition of Model 3 to be a bargain compared to those cars.

jthors | 16 gennaio 2018

Thanks. I'm well aware of the production delays but it seemed like things just got pushed back 3 months and then 6 months. I read thru quite a few posts before asking my question, but none of them seemed to address this specific question. I certainly understand the "production hell" explanations but I've yet to hear anyone really address whether they will simply divide the production (and customers) in two and not even pretend there is going to be a standard battery available for a year beyond the delays they already have.

There are delays, and then there's bait and switch.

Uncle Paul | 16 gennaio 2018

Historically Tesla has released their larger battery line first. Gives owners maximum range and Tesla maximum profit.

As soon as they can ramp up for more variety in their production offerings, lower range/lower priced models are worked into the assembly line.

It would be worse if early adopters, who wanted the maximum range, were forced into accepting the small batteries just to get their deliveries earlier.

Believe Tesla has choosen to go down the wiser path.

jthors | 16 gennaio 2018

I can live with it if they take a while to ramp up and fit the shorter range batteries into the process. But if they plan to fulfill ALL their long range orders before ANY short range ones I will be very unhappy. That was my point in starting this thread: the possibility that they aren't really putting any shorter range batteries into the mix until next year.

PhillyGal | 16 gennaio 2018

No known intel but I wouldn't be surprised if SR was pushed back really far. It annoys me that we don't know because I don't feel like we can all make informed decisions about which to choose if we don't know how much time waiting will cost. But I digress, as I've all but made my final decision to pay the $9k to get it earlier.... if I ever get invited to configure.

KP in NPT | 16 gennaio 2018

Haha PG I knew it. :) But I don't think you'll regret it. Not only for not waiting but because more range is always good. :)

Tesla has never announced in advance when exactly new options would be available, AFAIK. At least during my time of ownership (2.5 years) it's always been announced in principle (like the D, or AP,) and then one day it's online...and now this new thing is in the configurator. So while I am extremely frustrated we don't have a more firm timeline, since I'm waiting myself, this is typical. So I'm trying to just go with it. :(

jthors | 16 gennaio 2018

I think a lot of people will be upset, and justifiably, if they were told there would be a $35k Tesla and a $7500 tax credit, but the company then by choice doesn't offer the $35k model until well after the rebate has expired while instead offering a $49k model. A lot of those people will still buy a Model 3 but their fondness for the company will have taken a real hit. Maybe Tesla doesn't care, but they should.

weluvm3 | 16 gennaio 2018

@jthors I feel your pain, but if you want to better understand the current situation, I suggest you google "Seinfeld No Soup for you." Better yet, watch the episode. It should be required viewing for anyone who has reserved a Model 3.

jthors | 16 gennaio 2018

No, I get it. And I was a huge Seinfeld fan. No one owes me anything and Tesla can sell whatever they think will make them the most money. And I will likely bite the bullet and get the extended range battery. But if Tesla wants to play fair with their customers and encourage the kind of loyalty companies like Apple have they should not move the goal posts for people who lined up that first day to help make EVs a success.

KP in NPT | 16 gennaio 2018

Well, they haven't really moved the goal posts, have they? other than everything being delayed - for everyone. It was never said that the SR would be first (though some assumed) and it was always an estimate when it would be available. That estimate got moved when all estimates got moved after the delay.

I firmly believe they are doing all they can to do right by their day 1 reservers. Obviously had the ramp gone without a hitch none of us would be having this conversation. (well, maybe we would, because some people will always complain.) And I think day one reservers will still be fine. At least, that's my optimistic outlook as of today.

burdogg | 16 gennaio 2018

Loyalty begets loyalty - those are Elon's words and I think jthors is on to something a little. Not that Tesla ever promised a $35,000 car and still get the $7500 tax credit - but they never hinted the opposite either. Loyalty begets loyalty goes both ways. Sometimes you do something to develop good loyalty, even if it means pushing higher profits off a little. The company will more than compensate for that through the loyalty they earn.

But that is just me and my thoughts. We all don't know and are speculating, but I just think that Elon has a lot more loyalty to his base to try to make it all work out for everyone that was there the first day - yes many of those were there for a $35,000 car, or maybe pup included so $40,000 car. To not give it to those loyal first line customers until well into the late part of 2018, or even not until 2019 does not express the same level of loyalty back. Again, just my thoughts ;)

burdogg | 16 gennaio 2018

KP - we were on the same wavelength, you just beat me to it.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 16 gennaio 2018

jthors wrote, "...if they were told..."

Elon Musk has said since 2013 that no one should expect to see any incentives at all for Tesla Generation III vehicles. He pointed out that in the worst case, they would go away due to the political winds of change, and that in the best case they would expire because Tesla cars sold very well. Either way, the announced base price was $35,000 -- without incentives.

Someone might have assumed that incentives would be available in time to get their own Model 3, sure. That may have contributed to the long, long lines on March 31, 2016. It would have been a poor assumption to make. Plenty of evidence has been available over the past 18 months or so to make an educated guess that the $7,500 Federal EV Tax Credit would expire on/about June 30, 2018; would be reduced to $3,750 through December 31, 2018; and be at $1,875 until June 30, 2019 in the U.S.

No one at Tesla will tell anyone that they should expect that benefit.

metzger.bob | 16 gennaio 2018

jthors, I'm with you, although I understand the profitability issue, I will not be happy if any LR cars of non-owners who reserved LATER than me, receive their cars BEFORE me. I think the right thing to do, is to deliver cars in the order they were received unless you are a previous owner. I'm really looking forward to receiving my car in mid 2018 as the Tesla estimator states.

metzger.bob | 17 gennaio 2018

One more thing on the profitability issue. I think an extremely small percentage of customers who reserved the standard battery car will configure it with NO ADD ON OPTIONS. I'm sure those options will add significantly to the profitability of the car. This really is not a $35,000 car for most people who have reserved it.

PhillyGal | 17 gennaio 2018

@KP - These days I have an acute awareness of the passage of time (in days and weeks specifically) so I've found it harder by the day to imagine voluntarily waiting for the short range. My better half doesn't help much, as he's wanted long range from jump street.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 17 gennaio 2018

metzger.bob: Is the Acura TLX ~*really*~ a $33,000 car?

Is the Alfa Romeo Giulia ~*really*~ a $38,195 car?

Is the AUDI A4 ~*really*~ a $36,000 car?

Is the BMW 3-Series ~*really*~ a $34,900 car?

Is the Cadillac ATS ~*really*~ a $35,495 car?

Is the Infiniti Q50 ~*really*~ a $34,200 car?

Is the Jaguar XE ~*really*~ a $35,750 car?

Is the Lexus IS ~*really*~ a $38,200 car?

Is the Mercedes-Benz C-Class ~*really*~ a $40,200 car.

~*sigh*~ Some will argue about the availability of leasing, or discounts, or negotiable 'deals' on those cars... I feel those show they aren't actually worth the sticker price displayed anyway, because they represent ancient technology gussied up with window dressing emoted as 'craftsmanship quality materials' or whatever. Fact of the matter is that all that stuff can be done in any Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, or Mazda.

I argue that it is more likely you will NEVER find a 'base' version of those cars on the lot for an 'independent franchised dealership' anyway. Mechanically, it may be a base BMW 320i, but the application of aftermarket wheels and tires plus pinstriping, blackout chrome & taillights, tinted windows, and a rear decklid spoiler with 'ground effects' offered as a 'service' for a 5,000% markup means your negotiating position is rather addled from the start. Yes, even if you manage to 'talk them down' to 'only' a 300% markup on those accessories that were added without your request. Plus, getting such a 'deal' on a 'new' 2015 car in early 2018... isn't, once you consider model year depreciation. That car SHOULD have been discounted anyway. Many people are not aware of such things at all when they go to buy.

Difference being that with other brands, all that 'exta profit' goes to the 'independent franchised dealership', not the manufacturer.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

A company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company making a profit off of a company.

So why exactly was that marked up 5000% from the initial manufacturing cost? Yea, thats why.

deezeela | 17 gennaio 2018

Not official, but I heard M3 basic version will be start being produced at August this year.

bayareakid2008 | 17 gennaio 2018

Stating that Tesla never promised the tax credit is simply being dishonest. The company factors in the tax rebate (and gas savings) on the cost of their cars, on the Tesla website! The bait and switch for the $35k + full credit is in. Get used to it.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

@bayareakid

They show on the Tesla website because thats whats available right now. Its your responsibility to understand how it works if you are not going to actually take delivery of the car for a year. Its up to you, to know if that tax credit will apply for you a year later. Tesla is not going to do the research for you.

bayareakid2008 | 17 gennaio 2018

Andy, continue to excuse shady business practices. That's a great way to hold companies responsible!

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

@bayareakid

And thats a good excuse to not have to put in any effort. Put it on the companies, and hold them accountable for your lack of willingness to put extra energy into understanding something.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 17 gennaio 2018

bayareakid2008: Congratulations! With that idiotic statement you have earned... [IGNORED] status! Enjoy the view!

Tesla has not promised incentives to anyone, anywhere, ever. Damn.

andy.connor.e: +21! Precisely. Personal Responsibility for the WIN!

bayareakid2008 | 17 gennaio 2018

I personally know how the credit works. But Tesla advertises their vehicles as getting the full $7,500, without any sort of disclaimer. Nobody will receive the base mode + full tax rebate. The bait and switch is in. Make all the excuses you want, but it's happening.

Red, you're one of the most unpleasant people on these forums. We'd all be better off without your posts. :)

KP in NPT | 17 gennaio 2018

+1 Andy

It is not referenced at all on the model 3 section of this website, which says "35K before incentives" - it doesn't say which incentives, which would also include any state incentives offered.

It is referenced for the S/X because those cars can be configured by anyone and it's available to those cars now. So how exactly is that dishonest?

If you're configuring now, it applies. when it's gone, it will also be gone from the website. Jeezus some people will bitch about anything.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

Anyone can be considered unpleasant if they make derogatory or facetious statements towards people who do not have a real basis for what they say. "I want" or "I dont want to" are not valid arguments.

"I dont want to research the details on the Federal Tax Credit".
"Tesla needs to put a disclaimer statement to compensate for my ignorance".

Something like that can only be addressed with the most appropriate amount of sarcastic and/or derogatory remarks.

finman100 | 17 gennaio 2018

yes! another ignore goes out to the bay. it gets so tiresome to hear people complain about nothing. get over yourself and grow up.

thanks red for the heads up.

bait and switch...i do not think u know what that means.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 17 gennaio 2018

Tesla does not advertise.

All 'disclaimers' regarding the Federal EV Tax Credit are available at the website for the IRS...

https://www.irs
.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

There is no Federal 'tax rebate' for electric vehicles.

There is no 'bait and switch'.

Elon has repeatedly stated that NO ONE should expect any government incentives for the purchase of a Model 3.

Damn.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

@ReD

I thought for sure this would be worthy of the "God...3...2...1...Damn"

bayareakid2008 | 17 gennaio 2018

Andy, another severely unpleasant person who trolls these forums. Gotta figure out how to block the unpleasant douches.

You can excuse Tesla's bait and switching all you want, but many people aren't so forgiving of such shady business practices.

finman100 | 17 gennaio 2018

just. stop. it. and. go. away. you. are. not. helping. at. all.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

@bayareakid

Yes i am the troll. I just called you out, and pointed out the truth behind what you claim to be "shady business practice". Truth hurts. If truth is trolling, then i will gladly be the biggest troll on the forums. Sad when the ignorance escalates to this point. Bye.

KP in NPT | 17 gennaio 2018

I repeat: the federal tax credit is referenced nowhere on the model 3 page of Tesla.com

If anyone is "baited and switched" by that, they're an idiot.

andy.connor.e | 17 gennaio 2018

@KP

Thats what is referred to a liar. Or perhaps, a 'fuder'(?)

But the funny part is that he comes to these forums to say something thats not true, as if the people on the M3 forums are uneducated.

bayareakid2008 | 17 gennaio 2018

What truths have you pointed out? The only truth is that nobody is going to be getting the $35k + full rebate (if any rebate). That rebate factored VERY heavily into Tesla's promotion of the Model 3. You can throw the word "ignorant" around, but it doesn't make it so. I'm very aware of how the rebate will work, but I'm guessing there are thousands of reservation holders who are counting on that rebate to buy the car.

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