OLD THREAD; DO NOT USE (was "Post Your Newly Assigned VINs Here")

OLD THREAD; DO NOT USE (was "Post Your Newly Assigned VINs Here")


A lot depends on Tesla Motors being able to produce enough cars; it keeps cash flowing, the stock price up, critics at bay, employees & equipment busy, and suppliers happy. Also, Elon Musk often states projections for how many cars the company will be producing.

To get a rough estimate of Tesla's Model S production, we ask new customers to post your VINs on this thread (which replaced this thread). I then update the spreadsheet graphic below to reflect the past 2 months' production rate estimates.

To post your VIN, leave a comment with the following information:
A) Your VIN:
B) The date you finalized your order (see below if that's not clear):
C) The date your VIN was issued to you (appeared on your "My Tesla" web dashboard):

Your "finalized" date is the date that your order was submitted into production. This is, by default, 2 weeks after you place your deposit, but you can waive that 2-week period if you want your car to enter production sooner. Once your order has been finalized, your status on your "My Tesla" web dashboard will be updated to reflect that.

IMPORTANT: If you do NOT want your name/user ID or VIN shown on the spreadsheet, I can black it out to protect your privacy, but still be reflected in the data. If that's the case, feel free to email me your information at I will never share it with anyone.

The latest version of the spreadsheet will always be visible below. VINs issued more than 2 months ago will fall off as they are replaced by newer ones.

Click image for full-sized chart.

Questions or suggestions about the analysis are welcome. Thanks for posting your VINs and relevant dates.
- Craig

Dripps | 27 luglio 2013

Thanks Craig. Love watching the progress.

Zero EV | 27 luglio 2013

Another data point that would be nice is the delivery date. I know this will vary by location, but that is one thing I have spent a lot of time on the forums trying to figure out: When will I get my hands on it based on others that confirmed around the same time (VIN close in number).

Just a thought...

Benz | 27 luglio 2013

@ Zero EV

I don't think that is a good idea, at least not in this thread.

Let Craig do it as he has mentioned it in his first post in this thread.

cfOH | 27 luglio 2013

@ZeroEV: The problem with the delivery date is that it can vary tremendously based on numerous factors that may be impossible to determine for any particular customer. For example, some people delay their deliveries due to travel. Others, who are located near Fremont, pick them up directly at the factory, saving up to a week of shipping time, if not more. Also, there is the whole batching phenomenon, which I believe advances some orders ahead of others due to production convenience. This obviates the FCFS rule regularly. So, while it could be useful, I doubt you'd get much better accuracy than a general sense from posters' anecdotes. And then the whole EU production thing throws a lot of our old estimates out the window.

unleashthesun | 27 luglio 2013

Vin 17324
Finalized 7/15/2013
Vin Issued 7/18/2013

cfOH | 27 luglio 2013

Perfect, @unleashthesun...greatly appreciated!

Carefree | 27 luglio 2013

I would make this a private posting. You don't want every idiot wall street analyst to have access to this data. There is a reason Tesla no longer assigns a sequential number when you reserve a car!

Benz | 27 luglio 2013

@ Carefree

That is not a good idea.

The flow of higher VIN numbers will shut the mouth of people who are against EV's.

Even if only 1 VIN number is posted in this thread (out of every 100 Tesla Model S EV's that are produced) is enough to get a good picture of what is going on at the Tesla Fremont factory.

llyee | 27 luglio 2013

That's an impressive chart. During our factory tour earlier this week, we noticed a video screen congratulating the employees on 517. I think this may be the number of cars produced a week. I also believe the factory is idle on weekends, which is why we decided to have delivery on a weekday in Fremont. We wanted to see the factory in action. Also, does anyone know if cars shipped to Europe or Asia have a different VIN sequence? Thanks. The future looks great.

lissalovestesla | 27 luglio 2013

VIN 17889
Finalized July 23
Vin Issued July 26

ThorensP | 27 luglio 2013

Finalized July 20
Vin Issued July 23

cfOH | 27 luglio 2013

Thanks. The graph has been updated.

To anyone else, if you finalized your order in the last two months and your VIN doesn't appear on the first page of this thread, please post your info or email it to me. Thanks.

Cattledog | 27 luglio 2013

They are really smashing it out of the park right now compared to official guidance at Q1 conference call. Buckle up.

SamO | 27 luglio 2013

7/8 finalized
Pickup scheduled 8/15 Fremont
Vin 16927

Reilly McHugh | 27 luglio 2013

It doesn't affect much but my vin is 4 digits too high. 14061

Brian H | 27 luglio 2013

This is now Q3, and the Euro sales are distorting things.

Cindy I II III | 27 luglio 2013

Impressive and clever analysis. I was wondering about it too. Just emailed you mine, no posting of my info please.

The store person told me to expect 8 weeks lead time for 85. To my delight, the delivery guy asked for an appointment in 4 weeks 2 days after my order. When asked what happened, he listed the following reasons for the lead time delta in disproving my concern of potential ordering slow down:

- supply chain improvement reduced parts wait time
- euro final assembly in place, relieving US assembly load from ~500 to 300 in the US and 250 in EU

Assuming theses were the weekly targets in 3Q, my very rough calculation = 4750 + (4750+ 550 x 52/4)/2 + 550 x 52/2 = 25,000. This is to assume that 4Q sales = that of 3Q, which is conservative. Amazingly, my number is not too different from yours :-). Does this mean that the 21,000 2013 target is going to be hit out of the park? Guess we'll know more after Aug 7?

Brian H | 27 luglio 2013

Yep, production closing in on demand, but demand still growing. "Every delivered car generates 2-3 more sales." Elon.

Cattledog | 27 luglio 2013

I was one of the guys who saw '5,454 cars produced 2nd quarter' on a monitor at the factory tour during Teslive. That's only slightly over 400/week. Elon, Gilbert, (others?) in video segments have said they are producing over 500/week. That's at least 6,500/quarter. Yeah, they'll get to 21,000 in 2013...around Halloween.

Brian H | 27 luglio 2013

500/wk by the end of the quarter, not necessarily throughout.

Benz | 28 luglio 2013

I think we might see some postings of higher VIN numbers in the coming week or two.

Craig, thanks for updating the info in the spreadsheet in this thread. Cheers mate.

lolachampcar | 28 luglio 2013

18201 Ordered and finalized on this last friday (7.26). ViN on My Tesla page today.

irradiator | 28 luglio 2013

18030. Just got a vin last Thursday, finalized 7/11. Had a significant delay between finalizing and vin assignment nobody else seems to have, mine is a p85 without plus.

lolachampcar | 28 luglio 2013

169 ViN jump... Orders are looking good.

Benz | 28 luglio 2013

In September 2013 somebody will post the first VIN number beyond the 20000 VIN.

oildeathspiral | 28 luglio 2013

From Yahoo MB so take it with a few grains of salt but a 20000 VIN could show up well before the end of this qtr.

"Production switching to 70% Europe 30% US in August according to Tesla sales rep"
"I was in store yesterday and overheard sales rep tell customer that waiting time in US may go from 4 to 8 weeks now to 4 to 6 months in next few months. When I asked why she said that in August they are going to start producing 70% of the cars for Europe in August."

"I was skeptical as well so I quizzed the sales rep a little and she said that they had all just recieved an email instructing them to notify U.S customer to expect longer delays. She said that they are going to focus on European countries where steering wheel is on left side first. I guess 4 month delays are feasible if they cut production for Us customers down to 30%. I was actually a little concerned that demand was low enough in U.S. that they could cut production for us that much."

Koz | 29 luglio 2013

Sounds like they want to catch up on European backlog and then fit production to combined demand as they clear the resulting US bottleneck.

cfOH | 29 luglio 2013

Advance notice: the VIN graph may go offline for a while today. It's served from my personal webserver, which is in my house, and my house may be getting its main service wiring upgraded today. Nothing permanent.

eplaza | 29 luglio 2013

17149 left the factory this am en route to the chicago area!

sriramv | 29 luglio 2013

18170 Finalized 07/26

dfritz | 29 luglio 2013

17809 Finalized 7/12 P85

Brian H | 29 luglio 2013

Hilarious. Germany killed its greenest power source, nuclear, for fear of tsunamis and the Tesla Tsunami is about to inundate Europe.

wolfpet | 29 luglio 2013

Finalized June 19, 2013

wolfpet | 29 luglio 2013

oops... July 19th, sorry

paulkva | 29 luglio 2013

18317, finalized the order around 10pm Eastern Time on July 29, noticed the VIN shortly after midnight July 30.

For what it's worth, the first time I clicked the Confirm button the site just hung for several minutes, never worked. I was a little concerned about trying again -- I joked with my wife that I didn't want to accidentally buy two cars! -- but the second time it worked just fine and finished within a few seconds. As far as I can tell I'm buying "only" one. :-)

tobi_ger | 29 luglio 2013

Brian H
Hilarious. Germany killed its greenest power source, nuclear, for fear of tsunamis[...]

Ok, I get the pun (tsunamis), but
a) cheap, yes, but only "green" as to CO2, we do not have a long-term final storage for waste that keeps on radiating for millenia
b) there have been accidents in the history of nuclear power and if sh*t hits the fan, in a densly populated country, it's a desaster
c) the Rhine Rift Valley is still a somewhat seismicly active region, though no major damages happened... yet; all of the nuclear plants are dozens of years old

portia | 29 luglio 2013

@lola, car #3 for you?

Brian H | 30 luglio 2013

Nuclear waste is called "fuel" by contemporary reactors.

Navi | 30 luglio 2013

I confirmed on July 23rd but i only have a RN7xxx83 number, and it's saying sourcing parts.

When will i get a VIN? (Europe)

Navi | 30 luglio 2013

BTW, i ordered on July 30th.

Navi | 30 luglio 2013

20th July...

lolachampcar | 30 luglio 2013


Yes, it's number 3. I am a glutton for pleasure.

Extended US delivery times must not have started as this latest reservation is looking like a five week delivery.

Renegade | 30 luglio 2013

VIN: 18314, for S60
Finalized: 28 July
VIN Received: 30 July

Says delivery expected late August. This seems pretty fast, is it not? I was expected September...

Brian H | 30 luglio 2013

The RN is meaningless, not sequential.

emoflash | 30 luglio 2013


tesla has ramped up production to 500+ cars a week. I received my VIN 16080 on June 26th and picked up my new car on July 26th

Benz | 31 luglio 2013

I have read that 70% of the weekly production in August is for Europe.

Mathew98 | 31 luglio 2013

Renegade could be part of the 30% US production... Seriously, 500 per week production is so six weeks ago. Is it hitting close to 600/week yet?

Notre | 31 luglio 2013

VIN nos 18401 and 18479 reported in Norway today.

Notre | 31 luglio 2013

.. and 18513

Benz | 31 luglio 2013

Getting closer to VIN number 20,000