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Projected Delivery Dates

Projected Delivery Dates

Based on announced 5000 unit production run* from June 2012 to December 2012 (avg. 833 per month): June/July for R & S reservations = first 1,666 cars; Aug rest of 230-300mi packs = 2,500 cars; Sept 160mi packs up to P 833; Oct 160mi packs up to P 1,666; Nov/Dec 160mi packs up to P 2500.

Of course the sequence numbers we all have are bogus since no one knows what the drop out rate will be at the time of delivery (it would be nice if they gave us an ETA delivery date now (based on real data) or did a “re-sequencing” of reservation numbers.

P.S. the fact that the larger packs got moved to the front of the line really burns me since I hold P 469 and this policy was not announced up-front. Still, I can’t wait …

* http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2011/03/tesla-sets-price-production-plan...

VolkerP | 17 maggio 2011

Tesla intends to "ramp up" production. Starting at zero cars per year and reaching 20'000 cars/year within half a year results in 5'000 cars. Monthly car production will increase by 278 cars per month. So there will be no 833 cars produced in the first month. Waiting will be a bit longer but at least we know that production has started. Makes it a lot easier for me.

JoeFee | 17 maggio 2011

My numbers are only an off-the cuff example based on "I wonder when I'm going to get my car" (P 469)? If they start at only 278 units per month that would be a heck of a ram up to reach 5000 by the end of 2012. Us poor folk with low P #s would be lucky to get something by Thanksgiving!

Thanks for your input VolkerP. Anybody else want to take a crack at doing a model time table for delivery?

David M. | 18 maggio 2011

I'll bet you the production line begins before summer 2012. If it were me, I would give everyone a conservative date and then exceed expectations.

ncn | 18 maggio 2011

Hooray. If Vollker is right, then my Signature #101 (US) reservation will most likely get me one of the first month's cars. :-)

Volker.Berlin | 19 maggio 2011

If it were me, I would give everyone a conservative date and then exceed expectations. (David M.)

That's precisely what Tesla has been doing consistently so far. Problem with this strategy is: If you apply it too often, people's expectations rise and it will be more and more difficult to exceed them. :-)

ckessel | 19 maggio 2011

Typically, the "right thing" to do from a schedule publishing viewpoint is to pick the 90% mark. By which I mean the date you're 90% confident you'll be ready by. There are very valid statistical ways to determine 90% confidence if you've kept a history of how things have gone so far in a project. That said, most companies (particularly software companies) suck at doing the "right thing".

What 90% does mean though is there is a decent chance you'll come in ahead of that by some amount. That doesn't mean you're sandbagging to exceed the conservative date, it's just good planning. You want every confidence your product is going to be ready to go when your marketing campaigns kick off, when you've scheduled to build/open stores, etc. It's very expensive to be late in far more ways than just delayed sales. Being early can also have costs as some folks sit around waiting for the other items to take off, but being early is better than late by several orders of magnitude.

At #2840, I'm expecting late fall, but hoping for early fall.

Volker.Berlin | 22 maggio 2011

Today at Challenge Bibendum in Berlin Tempelhof Airport, I talked to an RWE-representative.
http://www.michelinchallengebibendum.com/en/Berlin-2011

RWE is one of the 4 big players in Germany's energy/electricity market. They have been running a big campaign for EVs for quite a while now, which comes across a bit funny and pointless with almost no EVs available to the general public. They were among the first to show off a Tesla Roadster in Germany, and the guy told me they are expecting their Model S before the end of this(!) year. He told me that they will not receive their unit through the regular reservation queue, but rather as part of the first batch of vehicles (others go to Tesla show rooms).

I found that very interesting and will try to stay up-to-date on the topic. Maybe it will be possible to see and even test drive a real Model S (beta build??) in Germany still this year.

Nicu | 22 maggio 2011

Yep, betas are going to showrooms this summer :)

JoeFee | 3 agosto 2011

On today's 8/3/11 conference call 160 battery was "maybe we will throw a few in by December" So most 160 battery packs will be in 2013 as it stands now!

Nicu | 3 agosto 2011

Big event Oct. 1st for those who put down a deposit; will be driven in betas (no time for everyone to drive); will visit the factory.

No reasons to think there will be delays. All goals on schedule (5* safety etc.). Mid-2012 is to be conservative / sure it will be met.

jomo25 | 3 agosto 2011

Is there audio recording of this conf call somewhere?

JoeFee | 3 agosto 2011

yes, tsla on yahoo finance look for link

jomo25 | 3 agosto 2011

Thanks for that. Here's a transcript of it also: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284453-tesla-motors-ceo-discusses-q2-201...

Brian H | 4 agosto 2011

All I can find there is the trandcript of Elon's remarks. Is there an actual audio link of the Q&A? Please post it if you have it.

Daxz | 4 agosto 2011

Audio and shareholder letter are here:
http://ir.teslamotors.com or http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=99574
Transcript above is a bit off in some places.

Based on the 10 per week increase stated in call to reach 5K units, they would need to start ~32 weeks before end of year (not counting down time).
@14 weeks 1050 units
@20 weeks 2100 units
@24 weeks 3000 units
@28 weeks 4060 units
@32 weeks 5280 units

Volker.Berlin | 4 agosto 2011

Daxz, I would not take that "10 per week" at face value. The increase is most probably not linear, more like exponential. When starting at 10, then going to 20, 30, 40 is each a remarkable step. And Elon did (I guess: deliberately) not state that they would increase by 10 every week. More like: We'll increase by 10 when we are satisfied with the process so far. The step from 10 to 20 may take a couple of weeks actually. But then again, when you are already at a rate of 200 per week, there is probably no use in waiting another week before increasing to 210. Keep in mind that at 400 units/week they already have the targeted 20,000 units/year.

What I want to say is: Elon wanted to illustrate with some concrete numbers, but I would not take these numbers literally and apply a formula to extrapolate the time for 5K units.

JoeFee | 15 agosto 2011

It would be nice to know the battery pack preference of the P order holders. If most hold to the standard pack then the <1000 P's have a better chance of getting a car in 2012.

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Volker.Berlin | 16 agosto 2011

joefiorelli, I don't really get the logic in your argument, but you can get an idea of forum members' battery pack preferences here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/which-battery-300-230-or-160

There seems to be a strong tendency towards the 300 pack (though I suspect that some of them will turn to 230 when the time comes to put actual money on the table), and there are also some folks already decided to go with the 160 pack. At least from today's perspective, and among the members of this forum, the 230 pack is by far the option with the least support.

David M. | 16 agosto 2011

Interesting. If a very small percentage of customers opt for the 230. Tesla might decide to not offer a middle pack in future years.

@Volker.B, I think you are right - when it's time for us all to actually order our cars, some of the folks wanting the 300mi battery, will back off and get the 230mi battery.

Seeing the price rolled up with other options, delivery charges and taxes, (and no immediate $7,500 rebate), will be a shocker. The easiest way to get the price down substantially is to order a smaller battery.

JoeFee | 17 agosto 2011

Your right, most "say" they want a 300 pack:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/5690-Poll-on-battery-size.

but I agree with above post that the total price "out the door" will make many people drop back to the 240/160. If that happens and the first 4000-4500 are S, P-240 and P-300 packs, then there maybe room for the low P 160 packs at yearend …. if this does not happen then I don't see many P-160 pack reservation holders getting their cars in 2012 given what was said in the last investor call:

"maybe we will throw in a few 160 packs in December."

JoeFee | 17 agosto 2011

Sorry, 230 pack not 240 above ...

Brant | 18 agosto 2011

I am P# 4510 and planning on a 300mile pack
I spoke with a store rep who estimated delivery around Oct/Nov 2012
And yes, I understand they don't know much more about this than we do
Just offering my small amount of insight

Soflauthor | 18 agosto 2011

The first questions that have to be answered: how many beta cars will be produced? when will the last beta car be ready for testing?

Next, how long will beta testing last? I'm assuming that beta testing includes crash and safety testing, functional testing of all important systems, endurance testing in varying climate and weather conditions, final performance testing, and overall system testing under actual user/driving conditions. Some of these tests can be conducted in parallel if enough beta cars are available.

At the same time vehicle tests are being conducted for betas, the production environment must be finalized, fully implemented and tested/debugged.

In addition, the results of beta testing will result in (hopefully) small tweaks to the production version of the Model S. Supply chains must be finalized, QA/QC must be established, etc.

Can all of this (and probably a lot more that I've left out) be accomplished over the next 8 months? If so, production could commence by 1 June 2012. Personally, that's very aggressive, but Tesla may alrahead be ahead of the curve in some of the testing/production steps. I hope so.

Anyone who takes the factory tour (I cannot attend) should ask a lot of questions and report back. If the production line is comings together, the Model S just might be on the road by mid-summer.

VolkerP | 19 agosto 2011

Volker.Berlin,

you should really try to get license plate B-AT 300!

Volker.Berlin | 19 agosto 2011

Great idea. I was already thinking about license plates. B-EV would be nice but will probably be hard to get -- and a little bit too platitudinous (nice word, looked it up). B-US, B-IG and B-MW are very popular here, but irrelevant in my case. I did not think of B-AT before, but I'll have to decide on the battery first. B-AT 160 may be less spectacular... ;-)

David M. | 19 agosto 2011

I thought I heard or read that the head of Tesla manufacturing is planning to have the production line finalized around April 1. But that doesn't mean that production will begin at that time.

VolkerP | 19 agosto 2011

David,

1st April sounds plausible to me. Can you link the source?

Several times a number of 300 cars was mentioned to come off a new line, before the bugs are worked out. And that number usually is put in context with an experienced car manufacturer and not-so-drastic technology shifts (e.g. first model with hybrid drive train). Opposed to that, Tesla is starting its first production line at all, with a car that is like no other ever built before (as we all hope).

Running the production line from April 1st to - lets say - June 1st would allow to produce a number of "release candidate" cars and work on these bugs. Tesla probably targets to stay well under 300 RCs since this is quite an invest.
I assume that "real production" has to start early in June, as the first customers expect to take delivery in July.

Volker.Berlin | 19 agosto 2011

Several times a number of 300 cars was mentioned to come off a new line, before the bugs are worked out. (VolkerP)

Maybe I should be glad that I cannot afford a Signature, after all... :-P

michiganmodels | 19 agosto 2011

I am Signature Reservation 249.

My Tesla rep said I can anticipate delivery by mid to late April 2012.

VolkerP | 21 agosto 2011

So, "production line finalized at April 1st" is equivalent to "All tests finished, car production running and producing US signature cars."? Great!

Brian H | 21 agosto 2011

I heard/read somewhere that ~80 betas would be produced, in the NUMMI factory (the alphas were hand-made offsite by subcontractors for about $1 million each). So the betas will also be the near-final stage of refining tooling and processes.

Nicu | 21 agosto 2011

michiganmodels,

when did the Tesla rep said that? If it's one year old info, it may not hold much value.

Volker.Berlin | 29 agosto 2011

There is an interesting post over in the Netherlands section of this forum. The comments were made in the context of the October 1 Freemont event, so the information can be considered recent:

[A Tesla representative said that] Specs, pricing etc will be expected around the summer of 2012. I earlier got information that the signatures for Europe will be delivered at the start of 2013. (Han-Paul)
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/netherlands?page=1

I may be wrong but I seem to remember that at some point options and prices were announced to be published this (2011) summer, at least for the US. Anyway, 6 months in advance should be plenty of time to make decisions, but it means that we will have to wait another year from now for this information. And it is probably unrealistic to hope that anyone in Europe receives their Model S still in 2012.

Brad Holt | 29 agosto 2011

If I get mine by this time next year (P-4559), I will squeal like a little girl. Here's hoping though.

michiganmodels | 29 agosto 2011

@Nicu - I was told at the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder meeting in May of this year.

Soflauthor | 29 agosto 2011

@michiganmodels - was the rep you mentioned a sales rep or someone from the company who might actually have some insight into the status of production preparations?

The April, 2012 is the most optimistic I've read, and as much as I'd love to see it happen, I'm skeptical.

michiganmodels | 29 agosto 2011

@Sofiauthor -

It was Dustin Krause (I believe that is his last name) manager of the Chicago Store and another manager from the Colorado store (his name escapes me).

I'm cautiously optimistic. However, I have a feeling Tesla wants to get the Signature Series out in Q2 of 2012, so they can finally book the reservation deposits as revenue. We'll see...

Soflauthor | 30 agosto 2011

@michiganmodels -- I was on the Fisker list for about three years before deciding that the Model S was a much better option for me and a better car overall. As a result of my time on the Fisker list, I'm a bit jaded. They missed three implied delivery dates over two years.

I know Fisker is not Tesla, and I do think Tesla does many things better. They're a more mature company. But they, like Fisker, are stingy with information when it comes to folks who have put down serious money to buy their product (I'm a signature series customer, #422). For example, scan the Questions forum -- most questions posed have not been answered by Tesla, and if delivery is only six months away, Tesla certainly has most answers at this point.

I understand that Tesla does not want to miss an announced production start date, so they keep that information proprietary in case it slips. But other info (e.g., options, hard pricing, colors, etc.) should be available if we're only six months out.

Your comment about the company wanting to book revenue in 2Q12 makes a lot of sense, but if that's the case, why don't we know a lot more about the production version of the Model S at this point?

The lack of info says to me that an April 1st production start is bogus. I truly do hope I'm wrong.

michiganmodels | 30 agosto 2011

@Sofiauthor - Glad to see you made the switch. I can't give you the details, so I apologize in advance. Living in Michigan, I can tell you this: you made the right choice switching to Tesla from Fisker. If nothing else, you will see the difference between a vertically integrated company that is developing its own technology and partnering with Toyota, Dailmer, and Panasonic compared to a company that outsourced the most vital components and technology(ies) necessary for a high quality, high performance EV. Again, I don't mean to sound cryptic, but I knew in January 2011 that Fisker would not meet it's 2nd and 3rd "drop dead deliveries dates." And I know this today: Fisker will not deliver near the quality product to justify its price tag.

I'm remaining cautiously optimistic on a April delivery date for Signature Series reservation holders for this reason: during the August conference call, Elon Mush eluded to another agreement with Toyota. He said he couldn't go into the details, but the deal would be big. The exact quote is: "And we've also signed the $100 million deal with Toyota. We're actually in discussions with them for a deal that is in order of 90 or larger than that." My speculation is this: Toyota will be involved in the manufacturing process with Tesla for Toyota (RAV4) vehicles and Tesla vehicles (Model S, Model X, etc.) as there partnership continues to grow. This is a very good thing for future Tesla and Toyota EV owners. If Toyota could turn the NUMMI plant around with the TPS when GM was at the helm in just over a year - it had the fewest defects per hundred than any plant in the US or Japan. The Alphas were built by hand, the Betas are using the same production processes as the production vehicles we will be driving. And I firmly believe Toyota is working with Tesla.

Again, this is my speculation. But, I believe Tesla is under promising and setting itself up to over deliver. Unlike Fisker that promised dropped dead delivery dates and had much less control of it's production schedule and technology, Tesla has a firm(er) understanding of its production capabilities. And Toyota has a huge interest to ensure Tesla can seamlessly manufacture a complete EV car, not just the EV power trains. In other words, (like Apple Computer with software and Hardware), Toyota understands the quality of the product comes from a seamless integration of EV technology and the automobile.

I know your jaded, and you should be. However, Fisker never invited you to their plant 6 months prior to delivery to view the goods :-)

Again, it's my speculation. I do not know anymore more (regarding Tesla) than the information available. But, I believe in Toyota's production system. I've watched GM fail to adopt it, which contributed to its demise. And I believe in Tesla. I'd go as far as saying anyone that drives a Roadster, will to.

If you have not had a chance to listen to this, you'll find it interesting:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/403/nummi

Soflauthor | 30 agosto 2011

@michiganmodels --

Thanks for the insight -- very interesting, indeed. I'm relatively new to Tesla culture, so I'm playing catch-up. If, in fact, Tesla is "under promising and setting itself up to over deliver" I'll be a very happy customer.

I wasn't aware that the Model S betas are actually beingmanufactured at the NUMMI plant (as opposed to custom assembled in a jury-rigged manner). That means that Tesla is debugging production processes right now. That's very encouraging. A Toyota/Tesla 'partnership' is even more encouraging, and if, as you say, there's more to it than the $100M deal, you've got my attention. Having owned a number of Lexuses over the years, I know Toyota understands quality and production processes.

Enjoyed the Ira Glass piece. Thx for the pointer. Makes you wonder why the taxpayers bailed out GM to the tune of $30B.

Let's both hope it's April!

Sofla

Brad Holt | 30 agosto 2011

@michiganmodels: Brilliant! I think some great points are being made here.

I have a feeling the October 1st event could be a prime opportunity for Tesla to share some of this information with us, yeah?

They do keep going on about how unforgettable it's gonna be, right?
#hoping

Nicu | 31 agosto 2011

The deal with Toyota could an order of magnitude larger than the $100M one. That's what they said.

Volker.Berlin | 31 agosto 2011

I have a feeling the October 1st event could be a prime opportunity for Tesla to share some of this information with us, yeah? (Brad Holt)

Precisely my thought. It would make sense to hold back the key information Soflauthor (like all of us) is missing, until some major press event. Revealing the Betas to the public will lend a lot of additional credibility to any other announcements they have to make.

And in turn, any additional information announced at that event will make the revelation of the Betas an even bigger bang. That October 1st will create repercussions in all kinds of media that may dramatically increase the brand awareness for Tesla around the globe.

Volker.Berlin | 31 agosto 2011

Also, publishing prices and options on October 1st would still kind of deliver on the promise that this information would be available "this summer".

We are currently working on final pricing and options for Model S, including the Signature Series. We expect to have updates on Model S pricing worldwide this summer. (George Blankenship, March 7, 2011)
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/quick-update-model-s

Brian H | 31 agosto 2011

"in order of 90 more than that" is not good English. "an order of 90 more than that" would be. But it's ambiguous -- it could be short for "90%" or "90X". If the latter, that's $9 billion.

If something like that is in the works, "amazing" doesn't begin to cover it.

Volker.Berlin | 31 agosto 2011

Brian, it's good to know that this ambiguous statement confuses you just as much as me. If you like you could try and listen to the original audio, maybe you can discern what was actually said:
http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?eventid=99574

Larry Chanin | 31 agosto 2011

Hi Guys,

Do you think it was a mere coincidence that Toyota issued a press release just two days after Elon's "order of magnitude" statement in which they emphasized that the RAV4 EV would be built at "Toyota's Woodstock, Ontario Production Facility", and that "Tesla to Ship Electric Powertrains from California"? It takes a helva lot of powertrains to get to $ 1billion. ;-)

Toyota and Tesla Announce Decision to Build RAV4 Electric Vehicle at Toyota's Woodstock, Ontario Production Facility

Larry Chanin | 31 agosto 2011

It seems my link in the previous posting doesn't work.

Perhaps this link will work:

http://pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+tesla+build+rav4+ev+woodstoc...

Brad Holt | 31 agosto 2011

I just listened to the clip. He definitely says "an order of magnitude". SO, what this would mean is that at the time of that call he was working one deal with Toyota for $100M, while simultaneously working a deal for an order of magnitude (basically adding a zero, if I'm not mistaken) larger: $1B.

Somebody check my math here, but I think that's right.

michiganmodels | 31 agosto 2011

@Larry Chanin - It's all speculation at this point.

But, I'm bored. So, here's my speculation. Lets say Toyota wanted to convert an existing product line to 100% electric. For arguments sake, lets say Toyota wanted to make an EV Corrolla. Why not partner with a company that is an industry leader in EV power trains and why not manufacture the EV Corrolla at your former plant that produced 6,000 UNITS PER WEEK as recently as a year ago? That is one way to bring a relatively affordable EV to market. Is this speculation: Yes. However, that is one scenario that is an order of magnitude larger than 100 Million dollars.

However, to make this post germane to the thread: if Tesla and Toyota's partnership includes a collaborate effort on the manufacturing process for all known EVs (RAV4 and Model S), I believe it is possible the projected delivery dates will begin sometime in Q2 2012.

We'll have to continue to wait and see....

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