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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

Brian H | 10 settembre 2012

Yow, down $2 today, to about $27.50! Any news or explanation? The ramp looks like it's getting good, so nothing occurs to me.

Jhall118 | 11 settembre 2012

This article might help:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/10/mondays-big-manufacturing-movers/

At least we can rule out the announcement of maintenance prices :) I hope it drops a little more tomorrow and I will buy more (I'm 24, which means I will have to spend my beer money, but pretty sure it will be worth it) .

Brian H | 11 settembre 2012

I'll drink to that!
Or not...

Brian H | 17 settembre 2012

Up $1.50 so far today, to $31.90. Is the "ramp up" getting results?

DanielR | 17 settembre 2012

Morgan Stanley is one reason for today's bump up:
Morgan Stanley weighed in on TSLA this morning, upgrading the stock to "overweight" from "underweight" and lifting its price target by $5 to $50. The brokerage firm said analysts' overall expectations have been dampened by delivery delays, leaving the door wide open for TSLA to outperform. "We expect the Model S to be a commercially successful product that can trigger even greater volumes of Model X and its derivatives," Morgan Stanley wrote.

Volker.Berlin | 25 settembre 2012

"Sell on news" is the name of the game... again. Nice buying opportunity before it goes back up (and beyond)! :-)

Volker.Berlin | 25 settembre 2012

"Tesla Motors Announces Follow-on Offering"
http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=709221

"Ahead of the Bell: Tesla shares fall on outlook"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49162131

mrspaghetti | 25 settembre 2012

I wonder if Elon timed the supercharger announcement to counter the negative effect of the SEC filing. Seems like the stock is hanging in there despite some analysts trying to beat it down.

kent | 25 settembre 2012

The strategy of announcing the Super Charger Network and the additional shares simultaneously is simply brilliant. Stock is getting hammered, but focus on the future is helping it recover.

Brian H | 25 settembre 2012

It's now official; the filing says the ramp back of projections is:

"We now anticipate that we will deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles to customers in the third quarter and between 2,500 and 3,000 Model S vehicles in the fourth quarter. As such, we believe we will be approximately four to five weeks behind our previously announced Model S delivery goals as of the end of 2012. As of September 23, 2012, we have delivered 132 Model S vehicles to customers which includes 42 vehicles delivered during the week ended September 23, 2012."

The critical issue is the ability to produce at the desired rate (400/wk) without blowing up! So that's what TM aims to establish.

But it's doubtful anything but 85kWh cars will get delivered this year, it seems.

David70 | 25 settembre 2012

At first on reading this I thought "Oh no. It's going to dilute the stock too much." But then, it's less than 15% of the existing stock and will probably guarantee the supercharger network and continued viability of Tesla until enough sales have been made.

GoTeslaChicago | 25 settembre 2012

Hi David,

With 105 million shares outstanding, the new stock is less than 5% dilution.

"David70 | SEPTEMBER 25, 2012
At first on reading this I thought "Oh no. It's going to dilute the stock too much." But then, it's less than 15% of the existing stock "

GoTeslaChicago | 25 settembre 2012

As I posted on August 2, if there is a secondary you should buy the news, as the rumor has already been sold.

I did my 2 cents worth and bought 360 (more) shares today.

kalikgod | 25 settembre 2012

I too picked up some extra stock today on the dip. I was kicking myself for not buying before the Supercharger announcement last night. Just finished a Refi yesterday, so I could finally touch my accounts again.

Elon and company definitely timed their Supercharger/SEC announcement well. If today's news came with no positives from the SC announcement, the shorts would be pounding their chests.

The production news is actually in line with the Morgan Stanley numbers in their upgrade last week, so that news is probably exaggerated right now.

GoTeslaChicago | 25 settembre 2012

As of 9/14/2012 the short interest has risen to a new all time high of 30,079,911 shares.
This is an increase of almost 4 million shares sold short in 2 months time.

A secondary of about 5 million shares including the 10% over allotment will not help the shorts that much.

Obviously somebody, or a lot of somebodies has a big incentive to talk the stock down.

Not saying it is John Petersen, but maybe somebody he knows....

KevinR.co.us | 25 settembre 2012

I was sort of hoping for a short squeeze by the end of the year. I'm thinking this is looking less likely for this year. Any predictions from those more knowledgable?

GoTeslaChicago | 25 settembre 2012

nobody knows the day or the hour.....

My guess- about 5-6 months from now. Several thousand S's will be on the streets, the supercharger network will be building out at a rapid pace, the reservation list will be exploding, spring will be in the air, the sap will be rising... You get the idea.

By the way the chart doesn't look that promising yet. Several more month of base building will result in the proper conditions for a sustained breakout.

My 2 cents.

KevinR.co.us | 25 settembre 2012

@GoTeslaChicago
Thanks

Brian H | 25 settembre 2012

It will be very interesting/relevant to observe what happens to reservations after this SC announcement. If there are, as I suspect, a fairly large # of prospects who backed off from range anxiety, and are still enough in touch to hear of the development, there could be some many changed minds coming on board.

Then there is the segment that tracks "auto news", or dips into it now that the "2013 model year" announcements and reviews are picking up, and were unaware of Tesla previously. "Free intercity refueling? Wassup with that?"

Etc.

Sudre_ | 27 settembre 2012

Darn I have a few more days before I have another $24K available to invest and Tesla's stock is going back up already!

Brian H | 27 settembre 2012

Write a post-dated check (cheque) to your broker ...
;)

Brian H | 27 settembre 2012

Or buy a few options for cheap.

ramymora | 27 settembre 2012

I heard on the news that 1,200 Model S reservation holders cancelled their reservation after this week's production delay announcment. If this is true, will everyone else automatically move up in the queue? Will we be notified by Tesla or see the change on the site when we log in?

Brian H | 27 settembre 2012

RU sure they weren't just doing some bad math, and totalling cancellations to date?

sergiyz | 27 settembre 2012

From TSLA's SEC filing:
"As of September 23, 2012, our Model S reservations, after subtracting deliveries, were approximately 13,000, up from approximately 11,500 at June 30, 2012. The third quarter has been the strongest quarter in our history for new Model S reservations, totaling more than 2,600 to date. We expect that our quarter-on-quarter new reservations will continue to grow as we open new stores and services centers worldwide, have more Model S vehicles available for customer viewing and test drives, launch our Supercharger network, make lower priced versions of Model S available, launch Model S in Europe and Asia and as consumer familiarity with Tesla and the Model S continues to grow. Our new reservations for the quarter were partially offset by cancellations which increased as we asked the first several thousand customers on our reservation list to configure their cars for delivery or risk losing their production slot. As a result, we expect that total net reservations for the quarter will increase by approximately 1,600. We expect the cancellation rate to decrease after we work through the older reservations on our list and there is less of a gap between a customer placing a reservation, configuring the car and receiving delivery. "

Brian H | 27 settembre 2012

Yes, I refiggered things on the other thread. Total cancellations to date are about 4K, since raw reservations are about 17K.

Volker.Berlin | 28 settembre 2012

I heard on the news that 1,200 Model S reservation holders cancelled their reservation after this week's production delay announcment. (ramymora)

It's being discussed in this thread:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/stupid-bloomberg-video-1200-mode...

GoTeslaChicago | 28 settembre 2012

Hot dog it!! Tesla increased the size of the secondary offering by 50% to 6.9 million shares. Priced this morning at $28.25. The stock is currently trading $1.40 above the offering price.

This is a tremendous vote of confidence on the part of investors in Elon Musk's vision and Tesla's business plan.

Way to go! Tesla!

PS Can't wait for John Petersen's next article.

lajollan | 28 settembre 2012

I love Tesla, but I am puzzled by that. Offering at $28.25 yet stock UP over 1.3 points to $29.72? Can one of you wall street finance guys explain that? Stock gets diluted, offer for less than it is trading at yet goes UP! Please tell me!

Sudre_ | 28 settembre 2012

It means the supercharger announcement must have been a big hit :-)

KevinR.co.us | 28 settembre 2012
GoTeslaChicago | 28 settembre 2012

lajollan,

Not a stockbroker, but here's my (simplified) take an how a secondary offering is done.

The underwriter "shops" the stock around to funds and other likely buyers, taking expressions of interest, to get an idea of how many shares it can place, and at what prices. As the offering date nears, these expressions of interest are converted into firm bids for so many shares within the likely offering range, which is nearly always at a discount to the price existing before the offering announcement, and at a small discount to the close the day before the offering happens.

Meanwhile the underwriter is also likely building up a short position so it can be ready to stabilize the price, if need be, by buying shares on the day of the offering. If the market rises on the day of the offering, and no stabilizing purchases are necessary, then the underwriter exercises the 10% over allotment option, thereby obtaining enough stock to offsets its shorts, at no risk to the underwriter.

On the morning of the offering, most all of the stock offering is pre sold, and the market opens higher, allowing some buyers to flip their shares. If, like Facebook too many buyers try to flip their shares the stock will fall. However, hopefully most of the shares are sold into the hands of long term holders. Now that the fear of the depressing effect of a big stock sale is past, and assuming the company continues to perform, the way is clear for higher prices.

A word about dilution. My take is that dilution occurs when the offering is priced below book. In this case it is way above book, so dilution, if any is more psychological than real. If the additional funds helps the company better achieve is ramp up to profitability, then it is a win for both the new and existing shareholders.

lajollan | 28 settembre 2012

Thank you, GoTeslaChicago. I knew that the buyers were in place, most likely, I do worry about flippers. I guess we will know by this time next week. I am looking for a price point to get back in. Bought some shares day before the delivery event and made some good money. I want to buy for the long term, as we all should. By the way, where are you in Chicago? I'm here too.

GoTeslaChicago | 28 settembre 2012

lajollan,

I'm on the South Side, Hyde Park-Woodlawn area. I will be finalizing my paperwork in the next few days for reservation # 5520.

Hoping there will be a Chicago Tesla club and we can have get to gathers. I don't go out that much, but plan on doing so much more, once my Model S arrives. It will be fun to see 10 or 20 parked in front of some restaurant or other event. Sometimes I imagine we'll just drive around Ontario street and up and down Michigan ave on Friday or Saturday nights. I sure we'll make a big impression where ever we go.

All my friends know I'm a big evangelist for Tesla. I have had (since 2007) the environmental vanity plate TESLA 1.

Looking forward to meeting you.

Mike

lajollan | 28 settembre 2012

Hi Mike, I'm in Riverwoods. The club would be great. With the $2k supercharging cost I just read about 1/2 hour ago, and 4 year maintenance cost, I am not as sure as I once was about getting this car, unfortunately. I still love the car. The escalating add-on costs worry me.

GoTeslaChicago | 28 settembre 2012

lajollan,

I know we should try to stay on the thread topic so I just started a new thread in the Clubs section of the forums: MEETING FELLOW MODEL S OWNERS IN THE CHICAGO AREA.

Surprised there isn't a similar one already.

About the 2K supercharger cost, I hadn't heard anything about that. I'l have to go back to the SUPERCHARGING HIDDEN CHARGE FOR 60 KWH S'S? thread and see what's up.

I'm getting the 85 kWh battery, so I can be sure to be able to make a round trip to my Mom's in Milwaukee without the need for a charge.

Mike

Brian H | 29 settembre 2012

Ya, another change! The SC is now "optional" again for 60kWh batteries, and $2000 is shown as the cost on the Options and Pricing page. Edit missed this statement still there, just above it though:
"Cars equipped with a 60 or 85 kWh battery can take advantage of Tesla's growing network of Supercharger stations." For certain meanings of the word "can".

Brian H | 29 settembre 2012

BTW, the increase in the size of the offering bumped the gross proceeds to $194 million.

nickjhowe | 29 settembre 2012

@brian H - gross proceeds are $225m - Goldman has a optional allocation of just over 1m shares that takes the gross to exactly $225m at $28.50.

GoTeslaChicago | 29 settembre 2012

Yes, but the offering was at $28.25.

nickjhowe | 29 settembre 2012

I mis-stated the price, but the math still stands. Net proceeds are expected to be $221.6m (see this article) Gross is $225m

Brian H | 29 settembre 2012

Yeah, but I assumed the GS extras were a contingency to cover their own shorts used in marketing, sort of the other side of their hedge.

JoeFee | 29 settembre 2012

The cash infusion has snuffed out the ‘cash burn” concern and thus moves to the next catalyst: production ramp to 20K run rate by the of 2012 = $30 − 34 range.

Brian H | 5 novembre 2012

After Q3 report, up about $2. Bumped along <$30 for a while, now nearly $31.

mrspaghetti | 12 novembre 2012

So what's the prediction for tomorrow's action in TSLA now that it won MotorTrend Car Of The Year? Are we about to see a short squeeze?

David70 | 12 novembre 2012

Oh yes. Please, please, please. May the market gods shine their blessings down on us.

pvenkate | 12 novembre 2012

I would be wary of another significant "news" item being reported as a foregone conclusion. US domestic Oil production will be overtake Saudi's by 2020 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-12/u-s-to-overtake-saudi-arabia-s-...

What that will do to gas prices here is anyone's guess but is this likely put a damper on the enthusiasm for EVs and Tesla by association?

Runar | 12 novembre 2012

I dont think a "slight chance that gas prices may stabilized/reduce" will have any significant impact.

Tesla Model S it the best car out there at the moment.

Doesnt matter if you use gas, hydrogen, electricity, ethanol or anything else.. :-)

Tesla will sell due to performance, safety and its technology advantage.

Docrob | 13 novembre 2012

The idea that increasing supply will drop prices is a myth. The projects that are coming online include deep water projects, oil shale projects etc which have much higher capital development costs then traditional oil projects. These new sources rely on higher prices to remain economically viable, if oil prices begin to fall they will simply stop developing them and prices will rise again. New supply will not lower prices, only significant demand erosion will do that.

Brian H | 13 novembre 2012

Runar +1
It's the best car, and offers things none other can.

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