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Amazing article to read

Amazing article to read

I am not easily impressed by articles, but this one was really a mix of emotions for me

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/the-mystery-of-tesla-model-3-demand/

Carl Thompson | 15 aprile 2019

Meh. Nothing particularly insightful in my opinion.

Carl Thompson | 15 aprile 2019

And I disagree with a central theme. Electric cars aren't really a completely different form of transportation compared to ICE cars. They're really closer to being just a "faster horse." There is no huge stretch or rethinking required from going an ICE vehicle to an EV. They're both just cars. You just refuel them differently.

Fredvanngo | 15 aprile 2019

Agree: The best car and technology ! No matter ICE or electric.

TeslaMarque | 15 aprile 2019

To me the main theme of this article can just as easily (if not more so) apply to Bitcoin. I believe those that ignore it, and believe the mainstream analysts are doing so at their own peril. I’m an early adopter of a lot of technology, I have a P3D, but I see BTC changing life more than EVs (and consider me sold on EVs.) But good read, thanks for posting!

82bert | 15 aprile 2019

Agree with OP. Disagree with Carl. To say that there’s no radical change going from ICE to EV is ignoring just how foreign it seems and feels to the lay public. All you have to do is sit and talk with a group of people who don’t have direct familiarity with an EV to know just how large of a shift it requires in most people’s thinking. The questions, concerns, thoughts that come up are astounding.

Driving an EV is far more than just driving a faster horse. You’re taking for granted where you are now and/or just how different the general public is from most that have bought an EV thus far. There are many misconceptions out there that make it feel like a very radical change AND there are some very real differences in driving an EV that require a current change in your normal behavior.

Magic 8 Ball | 15 aprile 2019

All of Carl's posts are born from jealousy that he cannot walk Elon's talk or his own talk. All talk talk talk with nothing to show he can do better.

Atom12 | 15 aprile 2019

@Carl Thompson: "They're both just cars."

I disagree. I obey the speed limit much more than when driving ICE. Downhill in particular. The function of the go pedal is so much closer to a speed setting than an accelerator. One pedal control to lock in the speed.

Bighorn | 15 aprile 2019

If they were both just cars, OEMs would not be at risk of going bankrupt making the change over.

finman100 | 15 aprile 2019

bitcoin? now there's a fantasy.
Tesla? as real as it gets.

reality is hard for some.

Carl Thompson | 15 aprile 2019

@82bert , @Atom12

All I'm saying is that driving an EV does not require much retraining or a complete change in lifestyle the way the move from horses to cars did.

To go from a horse to a car you had to change your life. No longer were you taking care of and feeding a companion that you might feel qualms about pushing to the limit if you needed to be someplace in a hurry. But a car is just a tool; if you destroy one no one is going to thing you're a bad person. Very different thinking involved.

The transition from ICE cars to EVs is nowhere near that big. If you've driven an ICE car you can drive an EV. A car is a car. An EV usually has better performance, needs less maintenance, costs less to operate and is better for the environment. Nevertheless it's not a major change in how you think about getting around town.

Neither of you has given any concrete reasons why an EV isn't fundamentally just a better car! How does it change the manner in which people experience and think about transportation?

@Bighorn:
"If they were both just cars, OEMs would not be at risk of going bankrupt making the change over."

Your logic escapes me. Which OEMs are going bankrupt? What do you mean?

jimglas | 15 aprile 2019

@Carl: As you say, not a big change. I remember asking the salesman what I had to do to drive a prius during a test drive. He said "press on the gas pedal"

TeslaEdison | 15 aprile 2019

It is indeed a very nice article, well written, put things in perspective, historical, contemporary and future ...

BobDobbs | 15 aprile 2019

Carl, your need for logic in TESLA-related discussions escapes me. Surely it's self-evident that comparing a TESLA to a car is outrageous and stupid.

Here is one ass, please place on head. Then all will be clear.

rxlawdude | 15 aprile 2019

Clearly, you've used your magic. Every time you write something, you make an ass of yourself.

BobDobbs | 15 aprile 2019

rxlawdude, truer words were never spoken, friend. I am the purest distillation of asshat.

JAD | 15 aprile 2019

My stock investment in TSLA shows I agree and hope the author is correct!

Kary993 | 15 aprile 2019

@finman100 - I agree that bitcoin appears to be fantasy, but there are some key events that are beginning to take place that are going to make digital currency mainstream. Forget the hundreds of coins out there that were merely created so the founders could make a ton of money for themselves. There have been some fantastic articles written about why the Apple Card is going to drive digital currency all over the world. Yes we still have to overcome fiat currencies, but those will just be in the background while we transact digitally leaving countries playing with their currencies and gold behind the scenes.

Tesla is a disruptor and will continue to be that. Apple is a disruptor and will continue doing so. I loved the Henry Ford statement about the horses. Tesla is saying the same thing. I see people on here complaining about the new model 3 lease terms. Why complain? Don't like it, buy then? Don't want to buy it or lease it don't get one, but I am guessing plenty of people will get a model 3 one way or other because it is a game changer. What other company is now going down the road of allowing you as an individual the ability to make money with your car and you don't have to be present to make that money? FSD isn't here yet but it will be and the other big players who are still operating like big ICE manufacturer will likely never catch up....their stocks will plummet when earning reports hit because their products will stink....really just over 200 miles range for the Audi eTron? What a joke and they are going to lose a ton of money for quite a while as they try and catch up, if they ever do. I believe this article hit it right on the head, those companies are going to have to collaborate and likely merge!

@Carl - If you think a model 3 is just like an ICE car I am not sure what planet you are from....maybe you are one of those ICE manufacturers trying to game us with some BS stories that aren't true just as the article said ;)

lbowroom | 15 aprile 2019

Paraphrased conversation from one soccer mom to another when I dropped the kids at school. "We considered getting a Tesla but decided not to. I don't know, I just wasn't willing to learn how to drive it an electric car, it's so different"

TranzNDance | 15 aprile 2019

Since the horse could leave a smelly mess behind it, it has more similarity to ICEV.

82bert | 15 aprile 2019

@Carl. As I said it’s not only concrete differences between an EV and an ICE, it’s also about overcoming perceived differences among the lay public. Ultimately, those are just as real to them and even harder to overcome.

But for concrete differences:
-No gas station
-Filling up each night at home
-No oil changes or transmission fluid maintenance or any of a number of other ICE maintenance checklists.
-regen breaking
-1 pedal (or close to it) driving
-commercial charging
-supercharging
-trip planning with superchargers
-longer, more relaxed trips
-faster preheating
-need to preheat the battery
-different language and way of thinking in regards to your vehicle (IE SOC, range, wh/mi, kWh, cells, battery degradation, etc)
-Model 3 specific, but spartan interior with 99% controls from tablet-like screen

These are just the ones that quickly rolled off my brain in 2 minutes, while I typed from my iPhone.

Magic 8 Ball | 15 aprile 2019

Yep, elephant in room. They are ELECTRIC.
Sell me some panels I can put on my roof that gives me 98+ octane and you will get closer to switching back but the real shift is in the fuel source and potential to eliminate a lot of waste/pollution/costs etc. associated with fuel delivery and distribution.

Carl Thompson | 15 aprile 2019

@Kary993:
"Carl - If you think a model 3 is just like an ICE car I am not sure what planet you are from ..."

I've owned 5 electric cars so far. I did not need to get a different type of driver's license for them. I did not need to relearn how to drive. They've all had steering wheels, an accelerator pedal and a brake pedal-- same as my ICE cars.

They are CARS and nothing more. Sure, EVs are BETTER cars and I buy them because they're better for the planet, but they're still just cars.

.

@TranzNDance:
"Since the horse could leave a smelly mess behind it, it has more similarity to ICEV."

That makes the most sense out of everything else written here! I agree!

.

@82bert:
"But for concrete differences: No gas station - Filling up each night at home - No oil changes or transmission fluid maintenance or any of a number of other ICE maintenance checklists - regen breaking -1 pedal (or close to it) driving - commercial charging - supercharging - trip planning with superchargers - longer, more relaxed trips - faster preheating - need to preheat the battery - different language and way of thinking in regards to your vehicle (IE SOC, range, wh/mi, kWh, cells, battery degradation, etc) - Model 3 specific, but spartan interior with 99% controls from tablet-like screen

Those are small differences many of which are not at all dependent on being a Tesla or even being an EV. I could come up with a much more significant and meaningful list of differences by comparing a Posche 911 Carrera S and a Honda Odyssey.

They're all just cars. The work the same way and fulfill the same role in a person's life in largely the same way regardless of the powertrain.The design / role of the car is a much more important difference. A track car is a much bigger difference vs. a family road trip car than EV vs ICE.

Bighorn | 15 aprile 2019

@Carl
Many economists believe that OEM manufacturers are severely hogtied by their investments in ICE which could not withstand internal competition for a new production line.

https://insideevs.com/oems-cant-overtake-tesla-ev-race/

82bert | 15 aprile 2019

To each their own, Carl. We clearly have differing opinions.

lbowroom | 15 aprile 2019

Carl, to me this is about the buying publics perception of electric cars and how different they are. Once you get them inside the response is usually along the lines of, "this isn't what I expected" whatever that may have been.

ALDONY | 16 aprile 2019

@carl
Correct me if wrong...

So, basically you are saying that the telephone invented in early 1800 serve the same purpose of a iPhone today.

I didn't need to go to school or take a license to operate it.
When I call, someone pick up on the other end.

Tesla is a car, agreed, but I bet that if someone told Ford that he could engage AP or FSD himself home, or even recharge the car with solar power at home he would have laughed (or maybe not)

I think you only see the small tree and didn't pay attention to the forest growing around it

Bighorn | 16 aprile 2019

@ALDONY
Excellent analogy

George with SacEV | 16 aprile 2019

I agree this article is a most persuasive and thoughtful presentation of the impact of Tesla on changing the "vehicle paradigm."

It IS MORE than ICE vs EV that Tesla is driving (pun intended) to change how we look at vehicles. It is much broader than that including significantly improved passenger safety, improved overall safety via "smarter cars" (smarter cars than human drivers), and the environmental benefits of electrification on SO MANY levels (e.g. not having to drill, pipeline, refine, and transport explosive fuel). That every EV, and Teslas in particular, are also MORE FUN to actually drive is just the frosting on the cake.

That Tesla had the foresight to build out their proprietary charging network is core evidence that their management truly understands what is REQUIRED to make EVs fully functional TO THE CONSUMER, every consumer including the single car household!

EVERY other major car company, even Porsche and the VW group with some impressive concept cars, will be selling EVs that are still only "city and limited range" travel options for at least 3-5 years as it will take AT LEAST that long for even a basic FAST charging network to evolve for those cars to be used for real "road trips." (IMHO, of course)

Zeus140 | 16 aprile 2019

As EVs become more popular than APEs (Awful Polluting Engines), the game changer will be to owners and franchisees of 1) Gas Stations 2) Muffler shops 3) Transmission shops 4) Oil change shops 5) Auto accessory shops 6) Emission testing shops for vehicle registrations 7) Real Estate sales of these sites 8) Oil tank remediation companies (although they will probably see an amazing uptick for years). That's all I can think of at the moment...
Definitely a paradigm shift, not only for drivers, but for many others.

burdogg | 16 aprile 2019

ok, I have stayed out as long as I can - I see both sides here but come on.... Lets back away and see what one is saying.

Reality - If I gave someone my key to my S and said, put your foot on the brake and shift it into drive and go - would they be able to drive my S without me there to tell them anything??

If I handed someone my Samsung who only had a rotary phone and told them my password, would they be able to make a phone call without me around, or would I have to give them more directions on how to even get to the phone to use it??

Reality is this - when I went and test drove an S back in the day - the salesperson with us did just what I said above - he said put your foot on the brake, put it in drive and away we went. As we drove - he didn't have to give me pointers on how to drive the car - which is ALL Carl is trying to say. We SO over complicate it and don't help out the situation when we tout how different it is to drive an electric car.

Now as far as HOW they feel when they are driven - sure there is a difference - hence why I have 3 of them.

Is there things to learn about? Sure, like long distance travel - how you plan a trip is different and charge - but they are working on trying to make it very similar to gas.

Sure the "perception" out there is that they are so different and must "learn" how to drive one - but that is not true - one can hop in an electric and take off driving just like they can in an ICE - if you really want to be honest about that.

82bert said things like this "-longer, more relaxed trips
-faster preheating
-need to preheat the battery"

That has nothing to do with what Carl was talking about - he was talking about how to drive an electric vs ICE - and no - you do not "NEED" to preheat the battery - that makes it sound like I have to do something special before I ever can drive my car - not true - I rarely preheat the battery :)

Again - sure there are things that are different - but not so much that one that has never drove one couldn't hop in one and drive off today and not know how to do it. Lets not over complicate this and make others so leery of EV's that they have no desire to even try to make the change - ie if I gave a 100 year old and iPhone 10 years ago - you think they would have any desire to use it? (a few would, but most would be overwhelmed by it and ask for their regular phone back)

hokiegir1 | 16 aprile 2019

Yes, the act of driving an EV is very similar to that of driving an ICE, and almost identical to going from one ICE to another (as in, you may have to re-learn where some controls are on the new car, but they are all basically there with maybe a few extras).

But the other aspects of converting to an EV are the parts people have trouble wrapping their head around. Things like long distance driving, where to charge, etc. And while, as a long time owner, these seem like nothing because they are in fact easy adjustments once you try them, getting people to take that leap is very difficult. Most people don't think of charging at home because they don't have a charger there. Yes -- it's an easy fix -- get an outlet or a connector installed. But people don't realize that it's just that simple. They also think about the fact that it takes "hours" to fill the car, and don't take into account that on a normal basis, this happens while they sleep. It's something that you can explain until you are blue in the face, but until someone tries it, it's a foreign concept. They don't consider that they don't fill their ICE every day -- so the fact that you can easily do so with an EV isn't something they would consider a benefit -- until they try it.

And planning a road trip isn't overly difficult, but there are some differences between getting in the car, popping a destination into the nav or google and going versus plotting a route with charging stops. They don't realize (because they haven't seen) that the car will tell you where to stop and charge and for how long. And while that route may only take a little longer (if at all) in an EV, the perception is that it will take a SIGNIFICANT amount of time more because of the charging. Until one sees how long a supercharger actually takes and does a trip using a series of them, it's another unknown -- and perception is that "30 minutes is such a long time when I can just stop for 5 minutes at a gas station!" Well, first, not all charging stops require 30 minutes, and second, I'd bet most gas stops actually take longer than 5 minutes if they include things like bathroom breaks. But again -- perception vs. reality.

hokiegir1 | 16 aprile 2019

sniped by @burdogg -- but similar points. :)

Bighorn | 16 aprile 2019

Do the steering wheel and pedal behave similarly? Yes, but driving is more than piloting from point A to point B. It's turning on the wipers or defroster when you can't see or adjusting the radio or the side view mirrors and host of other things that are no longer accomplished without a touchscreen. Like the phone, the car has gone from analog buttons and dials to a digital screen interface. Great analogy.

burdogg | 16 aprile 2019

Very true Bighorn - at least on the 3 :) The wipers and mirrors are still the same on the S and X as an ICE.

There are differences that need to be learned, especially the 3. But they are not so different that one can't pick it up pretty quickly and easily. It is the perception and we are not helping with that perception if we argue how different an EV is than an ICE :)

Sure - there are HUGE differences - combustible engine vs electric motor :) Huge. But for the consumer who knows nothing about cars...yeah, neither one makes sense to them - they just want to be able to hop in the car and have it get them from point A to point B.

But the difference is this - in an Electric - at least Tesla - one is LOOKING for reasons to go from point A to point B - whereas in an ICE - most dread going from point A to point B (many have commented on this - they hate going to the grocery store, but since getting their Tesla, they are volunteering to go to the grocery store)

Bighorn | 16 aprile 2019

A Tesla is intentionally dumbed down to seem like an analog device, for the transition. There are plenty of people intimidated by the big screen--the folks who have eschewed a smart phone, most likely. Tesla is working in baby steps in taking the car to where turning a key, pressing the brake and keeping your hands at 10 and 2 on the steering wheel will be relics of the past. To say that it's like a Model T for all intents and purposes is missing what's behind the curtain and what's been retro-designed to make people feel like not much has changed.

JAD | 16 aprile 2019

The nose cone on early Model S's is a perfect example of transition. It was only there to help transition from the grill of ICE cars. After awhile it wasn't needed and went away.

burdogg | 16 aprile 2019

ok - I will bite JAD - do we know that it was for that purpose?? They had the nose cone for some time - then the X came out without the nose cone and could it have been to the popular response to that look? As the Model S changed the front shortly thereafter.

I have a hard time believing the nose cone look was purely to "transition" as people got "used to " electric :) As people buy a car based on looks and you make a great looking front end and people will buy it - they don't look at the grill and go - hm, no grill, I won't buy it :)

Just throwing that out there - as we are putting a lot of speculation into saying it IS this way when Tesla has never said that was why they did it ;) So more opinion than anything.

Kary993 | 16 aprile 2019

Looking at the grill thing a bit differently, why do people buy Lexus cars with grill's that are so massive and frankly not really very attractive? bMW i3 kept a solid grill for the affect.....I think JAD has a point as I have heard many people say they hated the Model X front end and thought it looked stupid. I think people have been trained that a car needs a grill.

burdogg | 16 aprile 2019

True - but if people didn't like the front end of the Model X - why in the world did they move the S to that same front end 2 months later?

I don't know their reasons for the nose cone design - but I think it was just that - a design choice, as to me - it does NOT look like a grill either, so not sure how it resembles one :)

But again - those are just my opinions and may be completely wrong :) It is the factual statement that I was more or less playing devils advocate with - as I have never seen Telsa say that is why they had the nose cone - but reread JAD's statement and it sounds like Tesla made it very clear that was their reason as opposed to an opinion. :)

Kary993 | 16 aprile 2019

Having a solid nose that is smooth is also optimally aerodynamic.......

JAD | 16 aprile 2019

Sorry burdogg, it has been so many years I don't have my sources on that handy, but it clearly served no other purpose besides design as it can be removed or replaced by the current front. They also moved away from it with all new designs after the initial release of the S, so I don't see how it was anything but a transition design?

I will try to look for the source, but it may have been on the factory tour.

JAD | 16 aprile 2019

Burdogg, I think we may both be right, per Franz, he wanted to created a Tesla design element like other cars had with the nose cone, but make it unique to Tesla. So a bit of both:

“If you see the car, it has broad shoulders, a wide stance, and a purposeful built body,” said von Holzhausen. “Our goal was to create a face for a vehicle–a character or face that is recognizable–the eyes of a headlight. Many brands have evolved their faces over time. We were starting with nothing. It was very important to get the eyes correct. We also have a nose cone on the car, chosen so that if you see a Model S from afar now it is instantly recognizable.”

burdogg | 16 aprile 2019

Thanks for that JAD :)

Although it seems like the nose cone was not to make it like other cars - but to actually make it stand OUT from other cars :)

Carl Thompson | 16 aprile 2019

@George with SacEV:
"EVERY other major car company, even Porsche and the VW group with some impressive concept cars, will be selling EVs that are still only "city and limited range" travel options for at least 3-5 years as it will take AT LEAST that long for even a basic FAST charging network to evolve for those cars to be used for real 'road trips.' (IMHO, of course)"

I don't think it will be that long. There are already lot's of non-Tesla L3 charging stations in the world and of course Electrify America should have hundreds more here in the US by next year. I'd be surprised if you can't drive coast-to-coast on non-Tesla L3 chargers _now_.

Carl Thompson | 16 aprile 2019

@ALDONY:
"So, basically you are saying that the telephone invented in early 1800 [CT- actually late 1800s] serve the same purpose of a iPhone today. I didn't need to go to school or take a license to operate it. When I call, someone pick up on the other end."

No, that's not a good analogy. You almost certainly have no idea how to operate an early telephone. There was no such thing as "dialing" a number. You had to physically connect wired circuits together using a patch panel to call someone. Or your phone was directly connected to only one other phone and that's the only phone you could call. Or your town had a technician (operator) to manage a central patch panel. Would you know how to operate that panel? Would you know how to signal the operator to let them know you wanted to make a call? Would you even know which part of the early phone you talk into and which part is for listening? Doubtful.

Carl Thompson | 16 aprile 2019

That is absolutely nothing like how your iPhone operates. You iPhone doesn't need wires to make a call and does far, far more than any late 1800s phone. Making phone calls is now only a secondary feature of your iPhone and having phone service at all isn't even needed to use one. A person from the 1800s would have zero idea how to operate and no frame of reference to understand its features.

Not so for EV vs ICE car. You drive both the same way on the same roads and both serve the same purposes. Both can be used to drive to the store, both can be used to take your family to a relative's house, both can be used to go to work, etc.

Both are just cars. And remember EVs have been around _longer_ than ICE cars. People moved to ICE cars originally simply because they were more convenient overall. And people will move to EVs simply because they'll better meet the overall needs (including environmental) of modern drivers.

EVs simply are _not_ a huge paradigm shift. They're a better way of doing what we're already doing.

Magic 8 Ball | 16 aprile 2019

Ho hum more goal post moves by CT. Went from different form of transportation to "all I am saying driving....". Slippery little greased pig.

The pairofdimes shifts are more like flip phone to smartphone or Steamer to ICE. Once the benefits of one vs the other become apparent the market for the old goes away.

JAD | 16 aprile 2019

I always use blackberry to iPhone. Works on several levels.

Carl Thompson | 16 aprile 2019

@Magic 8 Ball:
"Ho hum more goal post moves by CT. Went from different form of transportation to 'all I am saying driving....'. Slippery little greased pig."

I am making the exact same point in both posts you reference. Sorry if you couldn't understand that but I can only dumb down so much.

Magic 8 Ball | 16 aprile 2019

Your point is nonsense which is the point I am making. You are continually trying to tear down (dumb down) TESLA. You have great issue with people praising TESLA for things that are not to your standards, your record is broken it keeps playing the same song.

All personal transportation is the same if we want to extend your initial point further. If we control the direction and speed of a machine it is all the same in your point. The point I, and I think others are trying to make, is that the long range BEV is an automobile displacement technology different enough from ICE to make ICE obsolete.

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