Bankwupcy for sure

Bankwupcy for sure

jordanrichard | 21 febbraio 2020

Ok, so here is what I don't understand. Why does everyone equate bankruptcy with a company completely shutting down and turning the lights off. GM and Chrysler both filed for bankruptcy and they are still here. There are hundreds if not thousands of companies that go bankrupt, restructure and press on.

andy.connor.e | 21 febbraio 2020

Its what people equate Tesla as. Thats @jim's joke.

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

Great point Jordan.

Tesla is to the point someone would pick up the pieces and put it back together, and I think it is exciting to envision in three years FSD will be a thing. I am not so sure it would be in a Tesla and would rather side on waymo's part, but still, very neat.

andy.connor.e | 21 febbraio 2020

Tesla miles of data - over 1 billion
Waymo miles of data - 15 million

Waymo better grow at an exponentially faster rate than Tesla.

jimglas | 21 febbraio 2020

@jordan: it was a snark
I know what bankruptcy is.
It’s just the number of times I have read that Tesla was going to fail

jordanrichard | 21 febbraio 2020

jimglas, gothcha, nevermind...... :-)

mabuck, no, Tesla is way ahead of Waymo and that it is not just my opinion. Ark Investments among others that do extensive research on this for the purposes for establishing stock price predictions, has said the same. Waymo has nowhere near the amount of data that Tesla has and continues to have. Their data is from a relative few number of vehicles is relative few locations. Tesla has about 600,000 cars around the world with AP, collection data.

Now, will FSD be legal everywhere when it is technically possible, no. This is one thing that many people keep forgetting or not think about. A company can build whatever it wants, doesn't mean it will be legal on the roads. Here is one of many basic blocks to FSD. Name one legislator that will put their name/political future on a bill that allows robo cars on the road, knowing that there is even a remote chance of a kid running into the road, out from between two cars, getting hurt or worse? Yes, that kid would probably get hit if a human was driving, but that human will feel remorse while they are sitting in prison if the kid got killed. Where will the parents get justice, from a robo car? Is it rational to freak out more about someone getting hit by a robo car versus a human driven car, no. The end result is someone got hurt. The reality is people will go absolutely bat shit crazy when a robot hurt/kills a human. Cue up ANY robot-science fiction movie.

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

I disagree Jordan,

You can ride in a WAYMO FSD level 5 vehicle today, it is just geofenced to an area. Tesla does not do this to my knowledge.

Data means nothing to me if it doesn't produce results. The car still has to think on it's own and adapt dynamically to it's surroundings.

jordanrichard | 21 febbraio 2020

So you consider riding around in the neighborhood, as being way ahead of Tesla? Tesla has already demonstrated that they can do 100% hands free Nav to AP they are just continuing to gather more data to "cover the 9's".

Besides, Waymo aka Google, doesn't make cars. Also unless you know something we don't, there is no car company out there that is putting Waymo's tech in any of their cars. By what you are saying, nothing should be stopping them because they are ahead of Tesla and have Level 5 tech working.

Tropopause | 21 febbraio 2020

Seems like Waymo simply has to expand their FSD outside the geofenced area and its game over.

Watch out Tesla! Waymo is merely giving you the gentlemanly jump.

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

No, but I think Elon is underplaying the use of LIDAR with cameras. The biggest hurdle with LIDAR is that it can't see through dust, fog, smoke, etc. but the positioning of objects in a 3 dimensional world is extremely precise. Much more precise than cameras.

Cameras will rely on machine learning to recognize objects, vehicles, people, foreign objects, and measuring distance by object tracking. LIDAR maps out the world around the car so the car knows every small detail of what is around it without errors much more accurately.

I always thought LIDAR was too expensive and one of the bigger reasons Elon musk avoided it, but from my limited knowledge Ford is putting LIDAR and a camera based system in the Mach E at an affordable price point. If that is the case, I think Tesla can do the same and will end up doing it to push their FSD to the next level.

All I have to go off of is what exists already in the marketplace, and base my judgement off the current AP updates and see how Tesla's Neural network has improve my Model 3's autopilot over time. Objectively, many owners that use AP see it being many many years out from Level 5 such as a waymo system.

I think it just requires way more data than people realize due to the limitations of a camera system, and processing power. LIDAR coming in a mass market car shows promise that this technology can be produced cheaply and we will see what effects it has.

andy.connor.e | 21 febbraio 2020

Wow its like having all the same fish arguments all over again. First its ford, now its LIDAR, whats next?

Am i the only one feeling hefty servings of Déjà Vu??

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

And LIDAR can experience blind spots camera's would help with. I think a dual system of LIDAR/Cameras will bring FSD to level 5.

TabascoGuy | 21 febbraio 2020

@andy, looks like they upped the payroll at the FUD farm.

jordanrichard | 21 febbraio 2020

so if LIDAR can't be used in real world conditions like fog, heavy snow, dust, presumably heavy rain, in other words real world, then what's the point.

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

Then you fall back to say a level 3 autonomous vehicle where you rely on the Camera system.

It is a stretch for Tesla to level 5 FSD with cameras. It is the slowest method. I think it can do a good job with level 3, and possibly in the next 10 years get to level 4. But why not have 1 LIDAR sensor in the forward direction, so it can more accurately map debris on roads and object distances to reduce phantom breaking? | 21 febbraio 2020

I see Waymo cars daily. I've never seen one on the freeway. It seems they are limited to 40 mph or so right now. They do work quite well in the limited environment they run. They are not L5 today. L5 has no restrictions. I'm not sure anyone will get to L5 in the next 5 years.

Now an L4 car with restrictions will happen soon and Waymo in this category. The number of restrictions will be both regulatory, geofenced, functional, and situational. Over time they will improve with fewer limitations.

Geico | 21 febbraio 2020

Yeah I mispoke, Waymo is level 4