An Open Letter to Tesla Naysayers

An Open Letter to Tesla Naysayers

Tesla Motors expected to sell on the order of 15,000 Model S per year. The first full calendar year they exceeded that target, reaching around 22,000 Customers. The following year they sold 31,000 Model S. And last year they sold over 50,000. They are expected to sell 60,000 Model S this year. Thus, they will have sold on the order of 11 years worth of Model S in only 4-1/2 years -- for a car with an 8-year product cycle. That is vastly more than Naysayers claimed was possible and is a fact that is constantly ignored, even by Tesla Enthusiasts who claim to be 'realistic' while stating pessimistic 'achievable' goals for the company. Anything and everything that is sold of this version of Model S through June/July 2020 is pure gravy at this point. That car has paid for itself multiple times already. That is why Tesla has no concerns whatsoever of the Model ☰ 'cannibalizing' sales of Model S.

From my perspective, the singular biggest cause of 'delay' for the Model X was the unprecedented success of Model S. The biggest cause of 'delay' for Deliveries to RHD territories is that those buyers were vastly outnumbered by new owners in LHD nations. If Tesla Motors had never progressed beyond ~300 units per week with Model S Production, you would have seen the Model X come to market in 2012 as planned, but it would not have been as good a car as debuted in 2015. If everyone and their Grandmother's Sister Sarah had done as Tesla expected and chosen the Model S 40 on the vast majority of orders instead of the Model S 85, they still might have managed to squeeze out a handful of RWD Model X way back in 2013. But it turned out that instead people wanted to get as much range and performance as possible instead of being frugal and 'saving money' by getting a less expensive car. If Naysayers had been correct and there had been a 'limited market' for 'expensive electric cars' the Model S would not have outsold Porsche Panamera, AUDI A8, and BMW 7-Series going on four calendar years straight in the US. Oh, and the Mercedes-Benz S-Class would have been swept too, but managed to secure the #1 spot in 2014, while Model S claimed #2.

Tesla Motors has already accelerated their plans for Model ☰ Production. When the first Model S Deliveries were made, there were 10,000 outstanding Reservations for it. Six months later, after 2,500 had been Delivered, there were 13,000 outstanding Reservations. By the time the first Model X Deliveries were made over 25,000 Reservations were in place. Elon Musk has stated he and Tesla were surprised by the number of Reservations from the Model ☰ Reveal Part I. So in preparation for an expected onslaught of new Reservations following the Model ☰ Reveal Part II, the Gigafactory will be enlarged to a higher maximum capacity -- three times the original total. Tesla is targeting 2018 to reach 500,000 total units from Fremont. Even if they 'only' reach 60% of that goal, that would be perhaps 100,000 of the Generation II vehicles and 200,000 Model 3. If 60% of those go to US Customers, that would be 120,000 Model ☰ sold in 2018. For comparison, the BMW 3-Series sold about 95,000 units in the US during 2015.

I say all this to point out that the 'history' of Tesla Motors is more than just 'having a late start'. The actual history also includes the fact that no matter their Production targets, interest in their vehicles tends to be higher than expected. I believe the preparations that Tesla is doing ahead of Model ☰ Production are meant to diminish these concerns as best as possible. Thus, predictions of a relative 'handful' of Model ☰ reaching Customers during 2018 goes beyond pessimistic, is nowhere near realistic, and ventures into the realm of the ridiculous -- likely fueled by generous helpings of HaterAde.

Tiebreaker | 25 settembre 2016


Badbot | 25 settembre 2016

Very well put

JeffreyR | 25 settembre 2016

What Has Slowed Tesla Down?

Their Own Success
As @Red Sage points out the overwhelming popularity of the large, high-power battery of the first Model S had an enormous impact on Tesla. First it meant that they had a major influx of high-end sales to rival and surpass their competition. Second, it meant that they had a tragic scarcity of battery cells. Third, it meant that the Model S had appeal beyond early adopters, techies, and EV fans; The Model S had appeal to driving enthusiasts.
There are countless stories of people on this forum who have purchased the Model S in spite of never having bought an expensive car before, let alone a very expensive one. Many have "stretched" to make the purchase. There are a lot of former Prius drivers sporting the Tesla Grin.
Because of aiming so high, and achieving the goal of being "much better than the competition" Tesla has achieved many awards and accolades. EV instant torque was grin-inducing and head-snapping long before Ludicrous Mode put Tesla in the rarefied air of the super car. Tesla focused on high-end deliveries to cover the R&D costs and maximize profits. There was a one-year wait for the MS-40. That combined w/ the unmitigated success of the MS-85, MS-P85 and MS-P85+ assured that Tesla would struggle to get enough batteries to meet early demand.

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt
Whether the bears and shorts prevailed and the "death watch" clock struck was a rational concern to many would-be Tesla owners and investors. Elon's habit of hyping stretch goals did nothing to dissuade those hell bent on bringing Tesla down to size.
Many early adopters bought sight unseen w/ only vague promises of Service Centers appearing nearby. The earliest did not even have the promise of Supercharging to fall back on let alone actual charging stations. But, despite the FUD cast at Tesla people were taken in by the Tesla Grin or even the dream of it. Once the tide of FUD became less and less rational, many more followed. The first coast-to-coast trip was taken by a Tesla fan who believed that the final gap would be closed by the time that they reached it.
It is because of those early buyers who rose above the FUD that we have 400K reservations for the Model ≡.

Got Juice?
There is no Model ≡ w/o the Gigafactory. There is no Gigafactory w/o the Model ≡. If it were not for those that stood in line and ordered online early on we would not have The Great Ramp Up to look forward to. Panasonic and the rest of the world could no longer call Tesla a builder of "toys for the rich." Sure a $35K car is not for the poor, but many folks were able to stretch for the Model S. Many, many more will stretch for the Model ≡.
If you could wave your magic wand and have GF-01 finished and producing 1.5M vehicle's worth of battery packs, how many cars do you think Tesla would be producing? Of course that same magic wand would come in handy to finish the other factory upgrades necessary to fulfill those orders. But, we know Tesla is pushing to reach those goals and keep pushing beyond them.
If Tesla had GM's factory capacity, how many EVs would be being built right now? Without the Gigafactory the number would be the same. Because there would not be enough batteries to go around.

The Long Tail
There is a huge amount of work to bring any product to a mass market. You need the requisite supply chain, financial resources, production capacity, and distribution channel. You need a product that is a good fit for the market. You need to be able to produce that product profitably. You need to be able to advertise/market it. And, finally you need to be able to service and support it.
When you are talking about an automobile, there are additional hurdles, especially in the U.S. market. Laws and regulations both direct and tangential conspire against you. The stranglehold that third-party franchise dealers have on distribution and strong influence on service and support are obvious.
Part of the reason that The Great Ramp Up needs to take so long is that Tesla needs to more than double their Service Centers and Galleries. W/o that infrastructure in place, even a small number of obscure problems can impact demand and good will. In addition, Tesla needs a means to distribute their vehicles. These "stores" are the primary way they have done it up to now. It will be interesting to see how that evolves going forward.
Finally, part of the reason Tesla is a good fit in the market is the availability of Supercharging and Destination Charging. By doubling the number of Superchargers and quadrupling the number of Destination Chargers, Tesla ensures that people will be able to travel as they have before. That does not mean that some SC sites won't be overwhelmed by holiday traffic. It does not mean that all areas on the map will be accessible, even if they are contained by a SC site "coverage" bubble. It does mean that many, many more people will be able to drive where they want pretty much when they want using only sunshine to get there.

@Red Sage +1 well put as always

Designed and written in California

tigardspaz | 25 settembre 2016

I'm not sure I agree with the statement, "There is no Gigafactory without the Model ≡." Recent events have shown that there is demand for residential, commercial, and grid level energy storage solutions.

Even if there was no Model ≡ in the pipeline, the Model S and X would arguably continue to grow in sales. However, I don't think most people really can appreciate what Tesla has hit upon with the energy storage business. If that was all they were doing, they still would have a very lucrative market ahead of them. I'm sure most readers of this blog are aware of the recent contract with the California Grid for $100,000,000 to build an 80 kilo-watt hour storage facility. When you look into the potential this emerging industry has, you will understand why Elon Musk is already scouting sites for the Gigafactory 2.

tigardspaz | 25 settembre 2016

* I said "kilo-watt hour. That should have read, "80 MWh."

SamO | 25 settembre 2016


JeffreyR | 25 settembre 2016

Without the wild success of the Model S there would be no GF too. But without the Model ≡ there would not be a Gigafactory because there would not be the proof that Tesla can drive billions of dollars in sales into the mid-market. I think Panasonic knew that the M≡ was the primary reason for GF-01. The Plan B business w/ stationary storage helps to drive down costs by increasing the scale. It also helps to even out any drops in the economy as projects like the one you site have long lead times and are funded by gov't or utilities or both.

There are only so many people that can afford a MS/MX. So Tesla's mission to make a more affordable vehicle is also partially a requirement. It's the tremendous scale of the GF that is required by the M≡. If all Tesla were doing was building out stationary storage, then they could have had Panasonic expand to meet that need. But to sell hundreds of thousands of big-battery, long-range vehicles Tesla needed to double the supply of Li-ion batteries. That's what I mean by GF needs the M≡ as much as the M≡ needs the GF. Otherwise the GF would just be another big battery factory. Instead it is the factory of all factories.

Haggy | 25 settembre 2016

I don't think that's quite right about the Model X. Tesla could have gotten it out much sooner. I think that people who look at the delays for the X and assume it will mean delays for the Model 3 are way off base though. The design for the X wasn't done until way past when people originally thought the car would be delivered. With the Model 3, the design finished on time. With the X, they are still finishing up the door software and I don't know if that's perfect yet.

I think the biggest advantage of the falcon wing doors aren't as big as they would be without summon. With summon, it's easy to get around the issue of spaces that are too tight to open the doors. It's not as if that happens all the time. I'm not knocking the idea of the doors. But it put the X in a unique position in terms of complexity and the need for delays to get it right. The X was announced way before autopilot was announced and had the doors from the beginning. It's not as if Tesla could have shifted people from the door team to the software team for summon, but it's not as if they could have told everybody who had put a reservation deposit down that they changed their mind on such a prominent feature.

Red Sage ca us | 26 settembre 2016

Haggy: +21! It could have been done, but would not have been advisable. I believe it was a matter of priorities. Elon Musk wanted to get delivery times in North America to less than three months from the date of order placement. He also wanted to get delivery times in Europe to less than six months and then down to under three months as well. Plus he wanted to get cars to the Right Hand Drive territories. If they had decided to bring out the Model X in rear wheel drive format, while the Model S orders were steadily growing worldwide, then it could have potentially pushed every delivery of either vehicle to any territory that much closer to the six month lead time, where it probably would have stayed until Q3 or Q4 of 2015. And guys like dborn would not have got their cars Down Under until maybe Q1 2016. And the first 'D' cars would probably have been the Model S 70D, Model S 90D, and Model S P90D first shown around Christmas 2015. And the Model ☰ would have been set for mid-2018, and then would have slipped to late 2018. And that would have been bad.

lar_lef | 26 settembre 2016

Red Sage right on as usual. Jeffrey +1.

bj | 26 settembre 2016

@Red Sage ca us @Haggy - pretty much spot on! I am not a Tesla doubter, I will get my RHD Model 3 in 1Q 2018. Previous delays are no guide to future delays.

After Model X, making Model 3 will be a cinch, they'll pump 'em out like there's no tomorrow, RHD will be a very simple change with the bare minimum of mirror-image components.

GF is the biggest risk to serious Model 3 volume deliveries. GF ramp up goes to plan, all will be sweet. | 26 settembre 2016

What is a Tesla "naysayer"?

Bob Lutz might be considered to be one. As an analyst for MSNBC, he routinely predicts that Tesla is doomed to fail. I think the latest prediction is next year.

Tesla is a remarkable company but not perfect. They are doing a marvelous thing, taking the lead in pioneering the 21st Century version of the BEV, a version that will stick, IMO. BEVs are the right thing going forward. Sustainable energy generation and storage are the right things. The execution has been spotty at times but good enough to keep going. The $100,000,000 storage deal in LA is nice but peanuts compared to the car business. (A couple of days worth of cars maybe).

The X was late because they overcomplicated the design and spent a year straightening that out and another year figuring out how to manufacture it. But they did it, albeit ending up with a somewhat less useful version than the one promised in 2012. So what?

Here is what has been brilliant: 1. the modular, skateboard battery pack design enabling expansion to 100 kWh in the same box while taming the unruly Li-ion cells. 2. The Model S design with variations-a fabulous driving, beautiful car., 3. The free Supercharger design and execution-work like a charm and make road trips relatively painless, 4. The gigafactory that will produce Li-ion cells for half the cost (my guess) and will lock in the steady supply of cells for a rapidly growing company in America not subject to the vagaries of international politics 5. The software architecture that enables periodic OTA downloads for fixes and enhancements--works great, 6. The software execution, especially for the SW that runs the car, more stable and reliable than any Apple product.

Things that need fixing: 1. The order to delivery experience, 2. The parts availability to service center experience, 3. The proximity of service centers to owners,

Things that remain to be seen: 1. The efficacy of the energy storage business, 2. The viability of the solar cell business as an integral part of a car company, 3. The execution of the Model ≡ , 4. The successful transition from a cash eating incredibly fast-growing tech company to a sustainably profitable business with a complete portfolio of products.

If I were younger and more risk-tolerant, I would go long on as much Tesla stock as I could afford every time it takes a dip and hang on for dear life through the wild future ride. It could be another Apple success story or it will get bought out for big bucks is by someone. Either way, you win. Bob Lutz is wrong. | 26 settembre 2016

Oh, the nav system and the browser and the entertainment system and the voice input system and the phone interface could use some tweaking and a pen integrated dash cam would be nice and autopilot could be improved and..... | 26 settembre 2016

An integrated, that is

JeffreyR | 26 settembre 2016

@georgehawley +1
Their focus on quickly building "the machine that builds the machine" is important. If capital remains cheap and the economy keeps on the rails, they should be in good shape. The opportunity costs of slow and steady are too high.

PhillyGal | 26 settembre 2016

@Red and Jeffrey - Amazing!

makobill | 26 settembre 2016

+1000 Red...

I'd also argue that if the headwinds of cheap gas weren't there, they'd be that much farther along in unseating some of those ICE comparable. Its very interesting how EV's are starting to make headlines and grab interest WHILE gas is so cheap. The tide is turning, slowly but surely....

Tesla Naysayer's? A fool and their money are soon parted Shorts....

28delayslater | 26 settembre 2016

Very well put. If Tesla has made any errors, it has been underestimating the incredible demand for their products. Other car companies would love to be in that position. It's also amazing that this American car company continues to fight states in order to sell their cars here. Those lawyer fees could be used to build my Model 3! Somehow capitalism breaks down if your innovation scares oil companies/car dealerships.

JeffreyR | 26 settembre 2016

@28delayslater wrote, "Those lawyer fees could be used to build my Model 3!"

So true. A big shame. Dealers are trying to protect their way of doing things w/ special laws. History shows when you finally lose that battle things go wrong quickly.

David N | 26 settembre 2016

it was Elon himself who has said many times that Model 3 and Gigafactory are closely tied together.
Model 3 needs the Gigafactory, Gigafactory needs Model 3. They do not exist without each other.
Because of the dollars involved, you can't have a multi billion dollar battery plant running "under capacity". On the flip side, you can't plan on producing 300,000 Model 3's if you don't have batteries for them.
So just to be clear, Elon is the one who said they are tied together.

tigardspaz | 26 settembre 2016

@ David. I'm sure you're right. My point is that Tesla has a gigantic growth potential with these commercial and grid level battery packs which I think a lot of people may be overlooking. And while their recent contract with the California grid worth $100 million may only represent a week's worth of Model S production, I'm sure it's just the tip of the iceberg.

tigardspaz | 26 settembre 2016

Regarding the price of crude oil, I would look for the price to work its way back up sometime towards the end of 2018 going into 2019. At least among US producers, exploration projects have dropped by up to 75% due to the heavy supply. This could all change if OPEC could get Iran to play ball and cut production.

Badbot | 27 settembre 2016

every so often a minor accident happens and the oil industry jacks oil prices 20% or more.

Red Sage ca us | 27 settembre 2016

President georgehawley: Tesla Naysayers are those who adopt the Ford Prefect position of, "I don't believe it! Prove it to me, and I still won't believe it!" They cast Doubt on anything that Elon Musk says, and everything that Tesla Motors plans. They want Uncertainty to reign among concerns for Tesla's actions. They promote Fear as the proper stance in regard to Elon's vision. FOXTROT. UNIFORM. DELTA. FUD.

Jim Cramer and Cory Johnson are two of the loudest Tesla Naysayers. The two of them have apparently convinced themselves that there is no substance to Tesla Motors and that the company deserves neither the accolades over their cars nor the fervor over their stock on Wall Street. They believe that Tesla's supporters are somehow brainwashed and irrational. They refer to the Cult of Elon, or the Cult of Tesla, as if that would be a bad thing. They believe that TSLA would be overpriced at 1/100,000th of BRK-A, and they are astounded that TSLA is instead around 1/1000th of BRK-A instead. I'll be happy to watch their heads explode on television when TSLA is some day at about 1/100th of BRK-A.

Bob Lutz has stated his personal distaste for Tesla Motors before, but I think that for him it is an honest philosophical disagreement. I do not believe he wishes any ill will to Tesla, he just believes there is another way to reach The GOAL. He believes that cars are and should continue to be primarily motivated by gasoline. He sees electrification as a means to preserve ICE in modern society, not as a means to replace it. He thinks that cannot happen right now, and that no one should try to make it happen before its time. And he hopes like [HECK] that its time is far enough into the future that he never has to lay eyes on it himself. I expect he will hold that position, even when the Model ☰ outnumbers the Prius on the streets of Detroit and surrounding areas. He will never admit to being 'WRONG' no matter how much evidence is presented to him. Naysayer? Maybe more of a Soothsayer, or even a DOOMSAYER, when it comes to Tesla Motors, I'd say.

Red Sage ca us | 27 settembre 2016

Badbot: Isn't it interesting how a quantity of oil 'lost' in one of those 'accidents' that represents at most one-bazillionth of one hour's worth of revenue requires upteen gozillion buckadollars be earned at the pump to enable the market to 'recover' from such a blow? Wait... Maybe 'recover' isn't quite the right word... Hmmm... Howzabout... "...exploit such an opportunity?" That's IT!

Red Sage ca us | 27 settembre 2016

gregcropper: I believe that JB Straubel would like to see their Stationary Storage systems become just as ubiquitous as Elon Musk wants Electric Vehicles to be. Standard issue, not exotic. Available everywhere, not rare. It is going to be fun watching their dreams come true.

Red Sage ca us | 27 settembre 2016

28delayslater: +21! Very well stated! Can you imagine the sheer outrage if a particular State had decided to block sales of Ford, Dodge, or Chevrolet vehicles? That would be a bad thing, I think. Unless it turned out they made the least fuel efficient, highest polluting vehicles or something. Oh, wait...

Red Sage ca us | 27 settembre 2016

makobill: I have visions of tumbleweeds rolling through gas stations with signage placards that read '$5.99 REGULAR -- $6.39 MIDGRADE -- $6.79 PREMIUM'

andy.connor.e | 29 settembre 2016

Important thing to point out, Gas prices can only go up, because supplies will only last so long. What you dont have with an electric car is the maintenance cost that you have with a gasoline car. No oil, no hydraulic systems - which means no fluid in the car (except the windshieldwasher liquid). So its very inexpensive to own. Someone who can afford $350/mo of financing can easily afford $500-$550/mo of electric car, because you're not paying for gas or oil changes. That raises the bar for the amount of people that can afford it. They may not realize it yet, but they will.

Red Sage ca us | 29 settembre 2016

andy.connor.e: The most vital 'hydraulic' system in a Tesla is the coolant system (it uses Glycol-somethingeth-or-other, AKA anti-freeze) that maintains a stable operating temperature for the battery pack and motor. But where the similar system in an ICE must keep temperatures between 200 degrees Fahrenheit and 500 degrees Fahrenheit before 'overheating'... The battery pack must be kept between 35 degrees Fahrenheit and 95 degrees Fahrenheit for optimal operation, and below about 120 degrees Fahrenheit to prevent overheating. The much narrower range of operation is the gift of higher overall efficiency as compared to ICE. But no, there is no fuel pump, oil pump, pressure pump, turbopump, etc. to worry about. That is a good thing. (smileyfacegrin)

Red Sage ca us | 3 ottobre 2016

Why Good Suggestions... Aren't

One of the biggest issues that faced Preston Tucker was that for all the funds he got from investors, and spent on advertising and marketing, and got from 'independent franchised dealerships', and got from potential Customers, and got from government programs, and all the work that was done on paper to design the Tucker '48... There was still enough of a question mark hanging over the firm that trumped up charges of securities fraud and whatnot could be brought against him to ruin his reputation and halt the progress and momentum he was building up.

I'm certain that Tesla Motors is full of people who are entirely aware of what happened to Tucker, and later, DeLorean. Tesla has to be incredibly careful to have something concrete to show for their efforts at every stage of the game. Because Naysayers and their 'questions' will be there every step of the way, just waiting for anything at all to use as an excuse to move for injunctions and sanctions and inspections and fines in order to make their lame accusations have the faintest appearance of legitimacy.

Some have been making suggestions, that Tesla should be 'all about the money'... That Tesla should have people purchase accessories without a car... That they should let people pay higher deposit amounts in order to move up in line... That they should pay higher deposit amounts to get 'FREE (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car)!' Supercharger access. And though there is probably nothing actually wrong with any of that...? It wouldn't matter one whit, because Naysayers would claim there were 'bad optics' or that something 'smelled fishy' anyway and would thereby demand investigations and hearings anyway. And all that would lead to proclamations of, "I told you so!" all over the place.

Tesla has been working very hard to avoid such roadblocks and must continue to do so for probably another ten years at least. Because there are Naysayers who have been claiming that Tesla is a fake company with fake goals and fake philosophies for the past ten years at least. There are those who are absolutely certain that Elon Musk is a charlatan, a flim-flam man, a swindler, or someone else without an ounce of integrity or an iota of sincerity. And they are constantly snooping for the slightest bit of information that will bear those thoughts out as truth.

The slightest misstep at any point can and will open the floodgates of intense scrutiny beyond any level that Tesla has had to endure thus far. The propagation of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt without factual support can be easily exposed for the [BOLSHEVIK] it is. But anything that results in Regulatory or Legal restrictions could obscure the truth just long enough to have a lasting ill effect on the progress of Tesla Motors going forward. So please, pretty please, with sugar on top, keep your helpful suggestions and incessant demands to yourself for a while. Maybe three to five years, just to make sure. Thanks.

makobill | 3 ottobre 2016

@Red Sage ca us - you reveal your talents as a chess player and applaud this latest addition. Well played, sir... | 3 ottobre 2016

Perhaps California (with 1/6 of the nation's car purchases) should provide a 100% tax on all vehicles produced in a state that does not allow direct sales and support of cars made in California. I wonder how quickly Michigan would change their laws.

sp_tesla | 3 ottobre 2016

" | October 3, 2016
I wonder how quickly Michigan would change their laws."

Michigan legislators would run in ludicrous mode & achieve new quick law change world record.

sp_tesla | 3 ottobre 2016

" | October 3, 2016
Perhaps California (with 1/6 of the nation's car purchases) should provide a 100% tax on all vehicles produced in a state that does not allow direct sales and support of cars made in California."

Please start gathering signatures votes for the next possible CA ballot.

sp_tesla | 3 ottobre 2016

" | October 3, 2016
Perhaps California (with 1/6 of the nation's car purchases) should provide a 100% tax on all vehicles produced in a state that does not allow direct sales and support of cars made in California."

Please start gathering signatures votes for the next possible CA ballot.

Red Sage ca us | 3 ottobre 2016

I came across another Tesla Naysayer today. His name is Keith Crain. He wrote an article that claims 'Tesla's Elon Musk is Simply Wrong'. Luckily, it is short, and filled with trite phrases that have no original content or factual basis whatsoever. Methinks that members of NADA helped to craft it. Yes, it is entirely FUD filled, and it sucks to give him clicks on his site, but you can Google it if you want to. I found out about it by making my way to another article that is a rebuttal to it:

Tesla, Michigan, and How to Save the American Car Industry -- The DRIVE
I shall now explain how to save the American car industry.
We begin with Keith Crain — Editor-In-Chief of Automotive News and Autoweek — who is simply wrong.
So wrong that I've written 2000+ words in response to his 419.
I don’t normally read The Onion for political commentary, nor do I read anything published by Crain’s for comedy, but it’s an election year. Traditional roles, expectations, acceptable language and even the definitions of words have been wildly subverted, and all of this is on display in the latest op-ed by Crain, whose latest “column” highlights everything that is contemptible about journalism and politics in this country, and why “wisdom” such as his spells doom for the American car industry.

Jcastillo18 | 4 ottobre 2016

Yes I'm one of those you have a Prius and am ungrading to a model 3! My problem is I have to wait for the Model 3 , I am trying to figure out my budget to see if the Model S is attainable? From why I read it's worth it but let's see

Jcastillo18 | 4 ottobre 2016

Yes I'm one of those you have a Prius and am ungrading to a model 3! My problem is I have to wait for the Model 3 , I am trying to figure out my budget to see if the Model S is attainable? From why I read it's worth it but let's see

SUN 2 DRV | 4 ottobre 2016

Again Haggy is the voice of measured reason!

Too much cool aid driving in the thread. The Model X was late because Elon got carried away and over engineered it...simple as that...even he admits it. It has NOTHING to to with the desire to shorten Model S wait times.

Yes it was a great thing that Model S demand could fill in the huge hole in the manufacturing schedule and revenue plans created by the late Model X. But there's really no chicken and egg questions here. The lateness of the Model X caused the hole that fortunately was able to be plugged by increased Model S sales.

SUN 2 DRV | 4 ottobre 2016


Red Sage ca us | 4 ottobre 2016

joehuber: It's not about Kool-Aid or Flav-O-Rite or even Crystal Light... But it ain't about HaterAde either. The Model X would not have been as good a car had it come out in 2013 instead of 2015. TSLA would have dropped below $100 and stayed there if the Model X had come out in 2013. The Model ☰ wouldn't have even been revealed until 2020. The initial delays were about the batteries, whether you believe it or not. So there.

SUN 2 DRV | 5 ottobre 2016

Red: I don't disagree with anything in your last post....

It's this line from your original post that doesn't ring right to me.. "the singular biggest cause of 'delay' for the Model X was the unprecedented success of Model S"

IHMO That delay was primarily because Elon and team over engineered the Model X.

Red Sage ca us | 5 ottobre 2016

joehuber: OK. So, you believe there were plenty of battery cells on hand from Q3 2013 through Q4 2015 and that Tesla Motors could have dropped the Model X with dual motor all wheel drive at any point during that time period if they had just gone ahead and built it with either 'regular swinging' or sliding doors? Cool. That's... an opinion. An entirely incorrect one, but it works for a lot of guys. Excelsior!

CraigW | 7 ottobre 2016

There is no question the Model X was somewhat over-engineered. Even Elon has admitted as much. That may have contributed to the introduction delay, but it is inarguably true that Tesla was in a severe crunch to supply batteries for its cars. The Model S was so far ahead of initial projections that neither Tesla nor Panasonic were prepared to ramp up quickly. This simply had to be worked out first, before Tesla could introduce the Model X. To do otherwise would have been irresponsible and put a cap on the stock price - something other naysayers were trying to do to Tesla over all this time.

JeffreyR | 25 febbraio 2017

@Red Sage in rare form. Take the time to read this thread.

Red Sage ca us | 26 febbraio 2017

There are those that urge caution. They point out that those among the Teslarati are perhaps more ambitious than they should be. They note that the dangers of wearing Tesla tinted goggles keeps us from seeing the realities that face Tesla in the mass market. And in particular they claim in a familiar fashion that the current popularity of the Tesla Model ☰ , may actually be an illusion, that you cannot predict a similar arc of success for it as what took place for Model S. Because, they say, it is a different market segment where buyers have different priorities. So, Tesla cannot hope to be granted the same level of patience and understanding for missteps on the low end as they were granted on the high end. Also, they continue, the initial onrush of reservations is mostly just pent up demand by those who could not afford Model S or Model X. Thus, it does not represent a true market of constant Customers that can support sales in a broader marketplace where there is even more competition and wider distribution of sales and service locations. All this and more they say as if no one here or at Tesla has the slightest clue about these issues or has made any effort to examine them or attempt to propose solutions at all. And that attitude, they fear, may well lead to the downfall of Tesla and the utter failure of Model ☰ in the narketplace.


Tesla's primary competitors with the Model ☰ are basically the same American, European, and Japanese competitors they currently pummel with the Model S. Acura, AUDI, BMW, Cadillac, Infiniti, Jaguar, Lexus, and Mercedes-Benz all have vehicles that will face up against Model ☰ among 'entry level luxury' just as their flagship vehicles may have been cross-shopped with Model S. Porsche, Maserati, and some others don't offer a competitor in the $35,000 range, though. Not that it matters, because the Model S alone outsold the entire Porsche passenger car lineup by itself in 2016. Oh, and the Model X alone outsold the entire Maserati brand by 43.8% in 2016. And one more thing...? The Model S outsold every individual passenger car offered by Cadillac (including the ATS) during 2016 -- despite being 'banned' in 24 States and having 800+ fewer locations.

So, yeah... The Tesla Model ☰ is going to wipe the floor with the 'competition'. No doubt. Those guys don't know what 'pent up demand' truly is... But they'll find out soon enough. Because when Model ☰ arrives it will be just like Model S -- the more people that experience it, the more will want to buy it.

Meanwhile... Sales of 'entry level luxury' cars for other brands will continue to dwindle so that everyone else is just fighting for second place. It will be a more attainable goal. Because the Mercedes-Benz C-Class took first place in 2016 despite selling 10.4% fewer cars than 2015... Because the BMW 3-Series sold 25.5% fewer cars than in 2015. Because traditional automobile manufacturers have no answer for Tesla Model ☰ just as they had no answer (and still don't) for Model S. Heck, they still don't have an answer for the Tesla Roadster, some 8+ years later.

dd.micsol | 26 febbraio 2017

RS - I can't stress this enough either:
The Tesla Model ☰ is going to wipe the floor with the 'competition'. No doubt. Those guys don't know what 'pent up demand' truly is... But they'll find out soon enough. Because when Model ☰ arrives it will be just like Model S -- the more people that experience it, the more will want to buy it.

yes yes yes.
+100 for correct foresight.

Red Sage ca us | 26 febbraio 2017

There are some that very seriously hope and pray that interest in Tesla is 'just a passing fad'. That is wishful thinking.

So they imagine a scenario where only treehuggers, or trendies, or techies want these cars and that Tesla is bound to run out of these Customers... Eventually. That is just wishful thinking.

It would be like Ford wanting everyone in the world to forget about that upstart Italian race car company... Certain that any day now that niche car manufacturer will fade away as a distant memory. And the bedroom walls of red blooded American boys will be adorned with posters of the Mustang only -- with no mindshare or wallspace allotted to Ferrari. That is just wishful thinking.

Red Sage ca us | 26 febbraio 2017

A similar post at TMC:

https://teslamotorsclub .com/tmc/posts/1988132/

And another:

https://teslamotorsclub .com/tmc/posts/1988179/