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How much will model S sales drop after M3 arrives?

How much will model S sales drop after M3 arrives?

What will happen to happen to number of S's sold if the price stays the same and you can get a loaded m3 for about the same as a base MS? Unless you literally need six or seven seats, I don't see what the point of paying about double the price or more would be. I feel like the sales will go down. I'm sure they were many people that bought the S only because that was all that was available from Tesla to start with.

cpmarino | 1 dicembre 2016

I agree that many S owners probably stretched to get in the S and would likely have gone with a 3 if that was available. Fundamentally, we don't know what the final product will look like. For example, if the maximum 3 range is 200 or 215, there will still be those who choose S to get the additional range. Now, if the 3 has 250 or 300, which is perfectly reasonable by the time it is launched, then will the S bump up to 350 or 400 to keep pace? Point being that if range is equivalent, and if the S remains unchanged in terms of quality & luxury appointments, there will be cannibalization.

If you look at MB, many C, E and S class models share engines, with the only differences being larger sizes, more roomy, more luxury features, the prestige of owning a higher model, etc.

Some people just want bigger cars, or more expensive cars, but yes I do see many S-owners "downsizing" to a 3 for economic reasons, especially if the ranges and features are similar.

gavinolukoju | 1 dicembre 2016

I disagree, sales should go up in all cases for all models. More people will see 'Tesla's' and will be curious. If they have the means and or the requirement for a larger car, they will buy a larger car (S/X). If they have a budget or requirement for a smaller car they will buy a smaller car (3). Once people learn that these cars have great performance, technology, build quality and range and are cheaper to run and cleaner, than a fossil fuel based vehicles word will spread and the public will buy more. At this point (2016), a majority of the public still don't know about EV's or Tesla and the benefits of EV's, also a majority of the public a car is a utility and don't know or care what they drive so long as it works if a Tesla meets a customer's needs and they can afford it they will buy it. In summary more Tesla's on the road low or high end will sell more Tesla's because they'll be seen more.

akgolf | 1 dicembre 2016

The Model S was going to be my retirement gift to myself. I only put a reservation down on the Model 3, just in case I liked it. I do.

jefjes | 1 dicembre 2016

If money or parking space were no object, I'd probably cancel my reservation and be driving a MS today. Having seen MS on the road and up close, that is the car of my dreams. The problem is, my financial situation doesn't justify owning a car worth almost as much as I paid for my house a few years ago. Not saying I couldn't swing it, if I really pushed for it, but like most people- needs out weigh wants. As far as the M3 affecting the sale of the MS, I'm undecided after reading the above opinions. I still think that for those that money is no object, they will still want the biggest, fastest, most expensive things no matter what else is out there so the MS will continue to do well.

PhillyGal | 1 dicembre 2016

Different strokes...

Some people like a bigger car, period.
7-series sales aren't dependent upon the availability of 3-series BMWs for the same reason.

jordanrichard | 1 dicembre 2016

and yet again a question based on the assumption that people base their car buying purely off cost and acceleration times.

The stuff that I have been able to haul around in my MS could never have been done in the M≡. Why buy a M≡ when for less money you could buy a Mazda Miata....?

SamO | 1 dicembre 2016

Sales of S and X increase with the introduction of the 3.

TeslaTap.com | 1 dicembre 2016

I expect the 3 to outsell the S by at least 5 to 1 as Tesla gets to the high-volume phase. That means increased sales for the S and X. No different than any other automaker - BMW, Lexus, etc - the low cost cars sell in much higher volumes than the high-end cars.

topher | 2 dicembre 2016

Model S orders have gone up since the introduction of the Model 3. I expect that trend to continue. I *don't* expect anyone to be considering both.

Thank you kindly.

dsvick | 2 dicembre 2016

There will be a drop off in Model S orders as people that wanted an EV and would normally have stretched for an S can now comfortably get into a Model 3.

There will be an increase in Model S orders as people that had never heard of Tesla or known that EVs were in wide production, discover them.

When all is said and done, there will probably be more Model S orders.

JeffreyR | 2 dicembre 2016

Here is one of the older threads on this topic. It's an important topic and the convo stays on point well into the thread:
"Model 3 vs. Model S: How will they be different?"
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/model-3-vs-model-s-how-will-they-b...

jordanrichard | 2 dicembre 2016

dsvick +1. We all know that there are people that need to have the top of the line car. Once the M≡ comes out, there are people who will be drawn to the brand and want the best the company has to offer.

Badbot | 2 dicembre 2016

The life cycle of car models will continue for a while the S will do fine.

the Y suv will be next then the truck and I think the roadster 2.0.

After that the S & X will get a full redesign to make them quick and easy to build and to add the new battery tech at that time. the new S & X will have new record sales numbers for full size cars.

Followed by the full size truck and city van.

The question I have is when the semi will be built. It might be next to allow delivery trucks built by tesla to autonomously deliver to service centers where the cars will unload the same way and park. I know that the delivery trucks will not look like the ones in iRobot dropping off robots, but I wish they did. Fully covered trailers designed to allow the maximum number of cars to fit inside.

Red Sage ca us | 2 dicembre 2016

There won't be a drop in Model S or Model X sales because those vehicles will be too busy causing their direct competitors' sales to wither, dry up, and blow away in the wind. Model S has outsold all direct competitors cumulatively since 2013. Model X already outsells the Porsche Cayenne and will likely surpass AUDI Q7, BMW X5, and Mercedes-Benz GLE/GLS in the U.S. during 2017.

Haggy | 2 dicembre 2016

As long as there's a waiting list for the S, it's not going to affect how many are sold, but how long the wait is. In my case, I didn't have to stretch to get the Model S, but it was near twice what I paid for any car before it. Gasoline was expensive at the time, and with the tax credits and rebates, the base price of the car was more attractive than something $20K less. It would have been like getting a Model S for the price of something I might have gotten anyway. Gasoline prices went down since then, but that didn't mean it cost me more. It still would have cost me more for gasoline, but would have been harder to justify on cost alone. That being said, I might have gotten a Model 3 had it been an option, assuming I drove it and didn't see the need for anything more. Also, I didn't buy a bare minimum Model S. Once I could justify getting one, I could justify getting options for it, but things like a pano roof (more expensive back then), the tech package (no longer an option), an upgraded sound system, leather seats, a bigger battery meant it wouldn't be a matter of comparing a base Model S to a fully loaded Model 3. I wouldn't get a Model S devoid of options. That doesn't mean it's a bad car that way. The base is more of a car than it used to be. The 60 was risky back then because there was no upgrade path. The tech package was needed. For day to day use, the 60 battery wouldn't make a difference and for long trips it wouldn't be a major inconvenience. So the base Model S is still a pretty nice car, and the Model 3 won't match it.

So yes, there will be some people who will buy a Model 3 instead of a Model S. But it will be because they will be happy with a car that's more than good enough, not because it will be as good as a Model S.

I think the reverse is true too and there have already been quite a few who dropped their Model 3 reservations and went for a Model S. Even though I'm getting a Model 3, when the day comes to replace the S, I'll look at what Tesla has at the time and decide then, and it might be a Model S or something in that range, depending on what they have.

bgbythsea | 3 dicembre 2016

The market for EV's is growing, so sales of S's and X's will likely go up. The Model 3 for the most part, won't take away from the existing EV market, it will take part of the ICE market. The higher-end EV's will also continue to garner greater portions of the higher-end ICE market.

David N | 3 dicembre 2016

"How much will model S sales drop after M3 arrives?"

Model S sales will continue to grow as more and more people become aware of Tesla.

EaglesPDX | 5 dicembre 2016

@PhillyGal "Some people like a bigger car, period. 7-series sales aren't dependent upon the availability of 3-series BMWs for the same reason."

True to a point, probably for 30% of Tesla sales that are status based. But 70% of Tesla customers are buying because they are zero emissions vehicles and driving a smaller car is part of that and there's a bit of reverse status going on, like Paul Newman pulling up to the Academy Awards in a VW bug or Will Smith driving a Prius.

When one can get a smaller luxury car, loaded with latest tech and every option for $70K vs. $150K for a maxed out TS, TS sales will drop likely by 70% if the T3 is as available.

jordanrichard | 5 dicembre 2016

Eagles, who often want people to cite where they got their data to support their claims. Where do you get that 30% of Tesla sales are "status based"?

Also as far as smaller cars (smaller engines) means lower emissions, not true. With that logic than a motorcycle would be absolutely great for the environment, but as was sown on the Mythbusters, though motorcycles get great MPG, their actual emissions per mile are horrible and worse than a car.

CraigW | 5 dicembre 2016

I don't expect the Model S/X sales to decline - due to the increased exposure of the Model 3 - but I do expect Tesla to drop the S60/S60D from the model lineup.

JeffreyR | 5 dicembre 2016

@CraigW wrote, "I do expect Tesla to drop the S60/S60D from the model lineup."

Not sure I can go that far. At some point batteries will be cheap enough that the packs will get an upgrade. I don't think we've reached that point yet. Do you think they'll just expect folks to get a smaller car to be cheaper? It seems that range will not be the primary difference between MS and M≡.

SamO | 5 dicembre 2016

250-350 is the ideal range per Elon. If that is true, CraigW is probably correct.

Red Sage ca us | 5 dicembre 2016

JeffreyR: I think that at some point, Tesla Motors will decide that none of their vehicles should have a range less than 250 miles, just as they have already done so at the 200 mile range mark. When that happens, the Model S 60 and Model S 60D will go away. I think it has more to do with the status of the transition to electric vehicles, than the status one holds in society. This has to do with the 'carrot and stick' philosophy. Traditional automobile manufacturers will be lead first to the 200 mile range mark, then 250, then 300... and possibly further. Because they'll know full well that 'The STICK' will be Tesla kicking their butts in the market if they don't keep up with 'The CARROT'.

JeffreyR | 5 dicembre 2016

I agree that smaller battery packs will go away. I'm just not convinced we are there yet. GF-01 needs to be in full swing before The Great Ramp Up can finish. It will be interesting to see if the MS-60 can last that long.

On a side note, the $2K bump in MS-60 price is interesting. Part of what may have been missed is that getting to 80% of 75 kWh fast being equal to 100% of 60 kWh w/ equal performance allowed folks to get the MS-60 w/o regret. Also, it could have been the plan all along.

SamO | 5 dicembre 2016

@JR,

My guess is that it will be dropped when deliveries of Model 3 arrives to differentiate by cost.

Lowest cost S becomes $75,000.

Most expensive Model 3 is $65,000.

Buyers have an easy decision to make. Same with BMW and Benz. But better because even the most basic version is essentially the best version.

EaglesPDX | 5 dicembre 2016

@jordanrichard "Also as far as smaller cars (smaller engines) means lower emissions, not true."

It is true for ICE vehicles, nothing improves mpg more than less weight and less hp but EV's have motors not engines. Not sure that has any relevance to TS sales dropping when T3 is equally available.

CraigW | 6 dicembre 2016

IMO - SamO has the take on the S60 that I was really trying to refer to.

The S60 was only reintroduced to the world because it allowed people wanting a Model 3 now to upgrade to a Model S. This reduces unmet Model 3 demand and increases profit in Tesla's pocket now. Once the Model 3 is out, it is probably in Tesla's interest to have a reasonable price differentiation between the cars, to maintain the status-value of the Model S. Thus the obvious probable decision to again drop the S60/60D.

However, the increased exposure of a car (Model 3) that will sell 5-10 times the number of Model Ss sold, will certainly drive the luxury demand up - not down. My guess is that BMW is a bit 'edgy' right about now, in that they can only count on continued increasing demand for their Minis.

SamO | 6 dicembre 2016

+1 CraigW

Maybe only current/previous owners of the S60 should be allowed to comment ;-)

Bighorn | 6 dicembre 2016

I expect the sales of the Model S to continue to grow as people learn of its existence.

KP in NPT | 6 dicembre 2016

If the S60 keeps selling, I don't think they will discontinue it. It is possible there will be enough people who look at the 3/S60 price difference and say "for X more I could get a base 60" - as long as Tesla is still making the profit they desire off the 60, why wouldn't they keep it? They might actually sell more than they do now with the increased exposure.

carlk | 6 dicembre 2016

I don't think sale of S will drop much if at all. The 3 is going to be more or less like S today, but only smaller, and the S in the future will be a much better car than even the S today. Every car company knows how to make several model lines at different price points to serve different market segments. People are still buying S/E classes, 5/6/7 series or A7/A8 even though there are cheaper models from the same company. Those who could afford a $80K car rarely will be interested in buying a $40K one. There could be some competition between lowest priced S and highly optioned 3 at $60K~70K though. The S will be just pushed more upscale.

jordanrichard | 6 dicembre 2016

Eagles, my point was in reference to your remark, "True to a point, probably for 30% of Tesla sales that are status based. But 70% of Tesla customers are buying because they are zero emissions vehicles and driving a smaller car is part of that" your inference is that smaller cars means lower emissions. Well, can't get much smaller than a motorcycle and as I pointed out, smaller doesn't necessarily mean better for the environment..

JeffreyR | 6 dicembre 2016

Definitely see your points about the MS-60, and conceed you may be right. How about this question, will M3 be sw-limited to 60 kWh? If not than the MS-60 will actually be a better pack. Still may not matter. But an interesting variable.

freeewilly | 6 dicembre 2016

At least 25% drop on Model S.

Rocky_H | 6 dicembre 2016

I'm rather disappointed that no one else countered @jordanrichard's pile of false B.S. about smaller engines/motorcycles. You left it to @TrumpEagles, where it can unfortunately be dismissed because he is usually untrustworthy.

@jordanrichard, Quote: "Also as far as smaller cars (smaller engines) means lower emissions, not true. With that logic than a motorcycle would be absolutely great for the environment, but as was sown on the Mythbusters, though motorcycles get great MPG, their actual emissions per mile are horrible and worse than a car. [...] your inference is that smaller cars means lower emissions. Well, can't get much smaller than a motorcycle and as I pointed out, smaller doesn't necessarily mean better for the environment.."

Could you get more dishonest?

I haven't seen the Mythbusters episode, but I am familiar with the emissions studies about motorcycles having worse emissions than cars. That is because of motorcycles not having catalytic converters to neutralize some of the really bad stuff in the exhaust. If they were similar technology, then yes, the smaller vehicle / smaller engine would be burning less fuel and creating less exhaust. For you to claim otherwise is ridiculous. You are making an apples to oranges comparison on purpose of a vehicle with a catalytic converter to one without.

@Eagles was saying that for choices of Tesla models a smaller lighter Model 3 would be cleaner than moving the bigger weight of a Model S. That is clearly true, because with the same motor technology it will take less energy to move the smaller car, yielding less emissions. Did you actually not understand that, @jordanrichard, or was this some kind of weird object lesson about how irritating it is to argue just for argument's sake?

Red Sage ca us | 6 dicembre 2016

Rocky_H: +1! Apples, oranges, grapes, and strawberries...? Well stated. I cannot see posts by The [IGNORED] and just decided to leave those points about motorcycles alone. But you are correct, the emissions controls required for automobiles tend to not be applied to motorcycles in a one-to-one basis. A 600cc inline 3-cylinder or 1200cc inline 6-cylinder for a bike is not likely to meet the emissions qualifications of a 1.7 liter 4-cylinder or 2.2 liter 4-cylinder car. If someone could figure out a way to make a 1.5 liter V12 that got 100+ MPG while emitting Zero Harmful Emissions and yielding 400 HP output, I'd probably go bananas.

Badbot | 10 dicembre 2016

I could see S sales rising as 3 owners income increases or their family grows.

andy.connor.e | 12 dicembre 2016

Model S sales will probably not drop, because if you can afford the S, why would you get the 3.

topher | 12 dicembre 2016

Because the Model 3 meets your needs?

Thank you kindly.

Rocky_H | 12 dicembre 2016

@andy.connor.e, Quote: "Model S sales will probably not drop, because if you can afford the S, why would you get the 3."

(1) Fitting in garage
(2) Turning radius
(3) Maneuverability
(4) Parking spaces
(5) Efficiency
(6) Don't want to waste a bunch of extra money
(7) Cheaper maintenance
(8) Probably more reliable, as it's not their first model and was designed to be simpler

Need any other reasons?

scott | 15 ottobre 2019

One thing for sure, Tesla will screw you if you wait, like I did, for 2 1/2 years for my M3 and then as soon as tax credit drops, they drop the price! I tried to sell mine for what I owed after a $3500 down payment and a full year of $800 month payments and everyone who looked at my car said "I can buy a new one, have it in a month and it is faster than yours and included self driving.....same price, why would I buy yours.
I am super disappointed Tesla did this and feel completely betrayed by them!!!
Buyer of new Tesla beware - they show NO loyalty.

rtshefe | 15 ottobre 2019

thats the most hilarious post ive read in a very long time..
HOW DARE THEY RUIN YOUR RESALE VALUE!!

lbowroom | 15 ottobre 2019

Seems to me that if you actually owned one you'd be able to post a new thread yourself and not have to dig one up that's 3 years old

dallinjhales | 15 ottobre 2019

@scott

You show no loyalty.