Forums

possible delays due to vendors not able to produce fast enough

possible delays due to vendors not able to produce fast enough

Barrons article - model 3 may be not produced as fast as tesla wants due to parts from vendors. Evidence is showing in the hiring pages on tesla's website.
We believe production might be half of what they want due to this production issue. Not confirmed either way but the hiring page looks really fishy.
Must be able to work until project is finished-24/7.

Captain_Zap | 10 maggio 2017

Still short?

KP in NPT | 10 maggio 2017

Still a hot mess.

Red Sage ca us | 10 maggio 2017

Heh. Production is going to be 'half of what they want' for the next five-to-ten years. What else is new? Luckily, $#0r+ interest will be just dumb enough to continue pushing the stock upward even after Tesla surpasses both BMW and Honda in worldwide Production.

mntlvr23 | 10 maggio 2017

Evidence?
..... that they are already working hard on the Y in the Semi and beyond?

mntlvr23 | 10 maggio 2017

and the Semi

bj | 10 maggio 2017

This might be more credible if the article explains exactly what is "fishy" about the hiring pages (is working "24/7" all they've got? That won't fix supplier issues if that's a real problem), and why that means there could be delays, joining the dots with other independent sources of verifiable information and a logical, cogent and coherent argument. Otherwise, it's just more useless FUD.

SamO | 10 maggio 2017

Time to call Elon.

M3forMe | 10 maggio 2017

oh no, the sky is falling.

Red Sage ca us | 10 maggio 2017

And... another post that was on the front page this morning, somehow pushed all the way back to page 5ive...?

JayInJapan | 10 maggio 2017

FUD Master

dd.micsol | 11 maggio 2017
dd.micsol | 11 maggio 2017
Red Sage ca us | 11 maggio 2017

Speaking of $#0r+ Interest...

Short Interest in TSLA
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

Never below 26,000,000 shares since May 2016. As high as 35,600,000 in late-November 2016. Over 31,000,000 shares since mid-November 2016. An average of 10.5 Days to Cover in September 2016. An average of 3.6 Days to Cover in February 2017.

--------

Short Interest in NVDA
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nvda/short-interest

As high as 71,400,000 shares in mid-December 2016. That has fallen back considerably since, to only 28,600,000 shares, and 3.0 Days to Cover, in late-April 2017. I guess a lot of guys got sorely burned, with Days to Cover as low as 1.2 in Mid-February 2017 -- when $#0r+ Interest was a 'lowly' 22,200,000 shares. But, the $#0r+s appear to be coming back for more of a beating. Cool.

PhillyGal | 11 maggio 2017

Not as long as there are still people in the world who try to manipulate stock prices by spreading garbage...

Haggy | 11 maggio 2017

Barrons is full of fake news about the Model 3. They are citing reliability problems for a car that doesn't yet exist, when the rest of us know that there have been huge strides in manufacturing capability and the Model S is a reliable car.

carlk | 11 maggio 2017

Rumor like that starts every time before a new iPhone comes out but it has never happened. No supplier dares to offend Apple by not pulling all stops to make the schedule. With Model 3's volume no supplier would dare not to make Tesla happy either. Tesla is no long a small niche car makers it used to be.

Red Sage ca us | 11 maggio 2017

Possible (probable?) suicides by $#0r+s too dumb to pull out before TSLA reaches $500.

carlk | 13 maggio 2017

Yeah really dumb but they can always dream.

SamO | 13 maggio 2017

Yup delays are imminent. That's GM's entire 5 year plan: hope Tesla has delays with seatbelts.

LULZ

SamO | 13 maggio 2017

Tesla has been open and honest. There are no delays.

Can that change? Yes.

Red Sage ca us | 13 maggio 2017

I'm sure there are Chief Editors from coast-to-coast that commissioned articles telling of the imminent DOOM of Tesla missing their expected window for delivery of Model ☰ months ago, and have had them on the backburner for months, just awaiting word of the perceived unavoidable occurrence and have been waiting ever-so-impatiently for the other shoe to drop with the specific details so that they can fill in the blanks and get a 'scoop'. The smart ones may have even had a secondary article written that told of the amazing move to almost overnight profitability that Tesla has enjoyed since the unprecedented wide release of Model ☰ to extreme accolades, incredibly sales levels, and all without delays that had plagued earlier releases as they had learned how to become a car company. In other news, NADA has found their political pull has diminished somewhat as their membership levels have dropped significantly in these past months -- more at eleven.

Red Sage ca us | 15 maggio 2017

dd.micsol: This is standard issue 'Cover Your @$s' (CYA) at work. Just as it was during an earlier supposed 'downgrade' by the same analyst.l It was simply a list of "I think I'm right, but what the heck do I know.' could be, what if, maybe, sort of situations that investors should be aware of, and nothing more. The analyst has to say these things, instead of assuming his subscribers have already seen the same 'concerns' elsewhere. Ultimately, this is no different than the 'RISK FACTORS' section of Tesla's SEC filings.

Efontana | 17 maggio 2017

I would expect Tesla is going to ask suppliers to carry inventory as a requirement to keep the business. Maybe as much as six weeks, depending on how fragile the suppliers process is.

This cushion on the suppliers end of the supply line should avoid shortages at the cost of possible recalls. The early sorting is aimed at making.sure the parts in the buffer are good.

Red Sage ca us | 18 maggio 2017

Efontana: Well, maybe not 'carry inventory' so much as being able to 'throttle up' manufacturing, fabrication, and shipments on short notice to meet Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery requirements.

At 500,000 units per year, that is essentially 10,000 units per week for components that are needed on every car. If Tesla keeps the 5% minimum threshold for options before they are eliminated, then the baseline order for such items might be as little as 500 units per week, 2,000 per month, and 24,000 per year.

My guess is that upon simplifying the order process and contracting the number of available options, the threshold may well be raised to 10% for most things and 20% take up rate for high end options. So, the ability to supply anywhere from 1,000 to 4,000 units per week, with no more than three months notice and possibly with as little as two weeks notice might be necessary. Having multiple suppliers, each with that level of ability, should be enough to cover without significant delay if one option suddenly becomes more popular than expected.

Efontana | 18 maggio 2017

Red: Yeah, I was not clear. The risk people seem to harp on is early. The first 3 months: July, August, September.

After that I am all for Just in Time with 10% per week adjustment flexibility vs forecast. That pushes the inventory burden to supplier inventory, but leaves flexibility to accommodate demand changes. - with the order deck Tesla has, I am not sure the adjustment flexibility is even needed for the first year.

So yes, supplier raw material and responsive processes is the right way.

Somehow I want to brute force the first three months to avoid the rocket roulette psychology (i.e. someone else will fall down first and I can hide behind their mistake while they take the blame for delaying the launch).

Even if some parts are bought twice, the money at stake would drive physical inventory until things get sorted.

This way the "most likely outcome" is success. Human nature is subordinated.

Red Sage ca us | 18 maggio 2017

Efontana: Yup.

Badbot | 19 maggio 2017

Everyone loves Mexican made stuff, right?
it is right up there with Chinese and Indian crap.
if you get lucky it will just poison your kids.

SamO | 20 maggio 2017

VW is getting pushback from stealerships due to attempted implementation of Over the Air (OTA) updates.

Good thing Tesla doesn't have such a backwards and awful system where sellers hate their customers so much.

Thanks Tesla.

#DriveFreeAgain

tstolz | 20 maggio 2017

It's weird to think how regular OEMs and dealerships did so well these past couple of years only to be quite possibly completely eliminated within 4 years due to EVs and TaaS.

tstolz | 20 maggio 2017
Red Sage ca us | 21 maggio 2017

tstolz: That report opens with a nuclear explosion and continues to blow the minds of the traditional automobile manufacturers' prospects from there!

"By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of fully autonomous vehicles, 95% of all U.S. passenger miles will be served by transport-asa-service (TaaS) providers who will own and operate fleets of autonomous electric vehicles providing passengers with higher levels of service, faster rides and vastly increased safety at a cost up to 10 times cheaper than today’s individually owned (IO) vehicles. These fleets will include a wide variety of vehicle types, sizes and configurations that meet every kind of consumer need, from driving children to hauling equipment."

That PDF file seems to be a bit larger than the version I saved to my computer on May 5, 2017 though, by around 1.7 MB. Not sure what the differences are, if any, each is 77 pages long. Maybe one is slightly more compressed than the other.

tstolz | 21 maggio 2017

Weird how anyone could focus on suppliers as an issue unique to Tesla ... managing a supply my chain is a fact of life for all manufacturers. M3 will ramp up just fine ... certainly better than the compliance Bolt

Red Sage ca us | 21 maggio 2017

tstolz: Yes. Reminds me of certain rumors regarding the Clintons... as if they were the sole politicians to have ever interacted with people who died. I'm pretty sure that a cross-reference would show several other associations, loose and otherwise. Liars often fail to see the cracks in their stories.

SamO | 22 maggio 2017

When Tesla is building at 500,000/year run rate, GM will be heading to bankruptcy. Again.

Soon my precious. Soon . . .