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October-December estimated customers

October-December estimated customers

I would be really grateful if you are one of the customers that have oct-dec delivery estimate and have heard anything from Tesla ? Please let us know. I am not sure what is happening with production at this time. Thank you in advance.

amraki | 12 ottobre 2017

Have not heard anything so far. Non-owner.

2015P90DI | 13 ottobre 2017

Hmm, lets see if you get bashed like I did when I brought up the subject. LOL, LOL :-)

I previously posted that mine had changed from October to November as the early possible date. I posted that I thought it was a sign of delays in production. I got bashed by the Tesla faithful (as usual, LOL), for even suggesting it. Only to have it come out a week later from Elon himself, that production was in fact delayed! However, after my post, my estimate mysteriously changed back to October as the early estimate date and the thread was mysteriously deleted. Apparently Tesla didn't like the truth!! LOL

I wasn't bashing Tesla, just stating facts. Car production is not easy. For a small company to ramp up to large volume is going to take some time. There are going to be unexpected obstacles that come up only by doing it. Those obstacles however cause delays. I stated then and still believe it, that any non-employee (or related) customers would be very lucky to receive their cars before the end of the year. That's only 2 1/2 months away.

Clearly October is not happening for anyone. As far as I can tell, nobody (in the public) has been invited to configure their cars yet. Considering a 1 week confirmation period, unlikely they're going to build a car, ship and deliver it in 10 days!!!

If you're not familiar with Elon Standard Time, do your own research on Tesla's history. I don't say that in a bad way, but for those not used to EST, they could get discouraged and give up, feeling like they've been burned by missed deadlines. If you can let it go from your mind, that will be best. Then just be pleasantly surprised whenever the day comes that you're invited to configure your car. At that time, based on history, you should be close and can start planning accordingly for your new car. Once they actually take orders, they've been pretty good about meeting delivery estimates at that time. Reservations come EST, actual orders come with more realistic ETA's.

Just guessing that may 50,000 existing owners reserved a Model 3, if you're not a current owner, that's a lot of cars they have to get through before they get to you. Last I read, I think only a few hundred have been delivered or completed so far. Again, production is not easy and it's going to take some time. Their goal is to get to 5,000 cars per week. Since July, they're still in the hundreds. Last I read, while much of the car is built in the production line, glitches are preventing full completion in the automated production line. So they still need to get all the glitches worked out. Then regular production can begin at a slow pace to check and double check for quality (Elon said, machines have been slowed down to 10% speed to allow humans time to intervene if something screws up). The Model X was delayed by 2 years. I don't believe the Model 3 will be that delayed.

But it will be (already is) delayed. Be patient. It will be worth the wait. My guess, for existing owners and first day reservation holders, most should have their cars by April-June, 2018 (several will put off ordering to wait for AWD or Performance versions). My reservation still says Oct-Dec, 2017. But June-Aug, 2018 if I want the AWD. No reference to Performance models. If I get my car by June, I'll be satisfied. Although I may still opt for the AWD. I think it's a safe bet to assume that won't happen before the end of 2018.

I'm sure I'll get bashed by the Tesla faithful, sorry. Just being realistic based on reality. I don't have blinders on and I think it's better for customers to have realistic expectations so they don't get discouraged and give up. Bottom line is, until they free up the "bottleneck" and get production working as it should, nobody knows for certain. The Falcon Wing doors took two years to figure out. Again, shouldn't be the case with Model 3. But all issues have to be resolved before mass production begins. Hopefully that's soon. You can bet Elon will post it on Twitter once that's been accomplished.

dyefrog | 13 ottobre 2017

2015;
You weren't bashed for predicting a delay in production AFAIK, it was because you claimed your reservation was moved back a month. Only two people on this forum have made such a claim, you and another less then credible poster.

KP in NPT | 13 ottobre 2017

OP - when the first non-employees are asked to configure, you will almost certainly know right away, assuming it doesn't break the internet. ;-)

KP in NPT | 13 ottobre 2017

Also, don't listen to guesses from anyone here when you will get your car. No one here knows when the S curve of the production ramp will start it's climb. We are all just trying to be patient and wait for official announcements from Tesla.

2015 - the last we heard from Tesla is that 7% of existing owners worldwide reserved a model 3. Even if that number is low, I seriously doubt it is anywhere near the 50K you guess. That would be closer to 20%.

Shock | 13 ottobre 2017

Fanboys fan, it's just in their nature.

Clearly no non-employees on the "October-November" are going to be seeing their cars this month. Oh, sure, it's possible Tesla sneaks 1-2 out, like chum to sharks, to watch the forums alight in renewed bowing and gushing by the acolytes, but it's clear the time frame outlined in July is already long since dead. Receipt of vehicle by non-employees in November is essentially a no-go and there may not even be a significant ramp this year at all.

Nobody here believes Tesla will produce 5,000 vehicles/week in December, per original estimates. Not a single person.

Sandy’s 3 | 13 ottobre 2017

‘Nobody here believes Tesla will produce 5,000 vehicles/week in December, per original estimates. Not a single person.’

Not that I disagree but please speak for yourself, not others.

Shock | 13 ottobre 2017

"Not that I disagree but please speak for yourself, not others."

LOL

PhillyGal | 13 ottobre 2017

@KP +1

When non-employees start being asked to configure/order, you'll certainly hear about it. Check back on this page regularly. I'm still showing Oct-December (current owner, east coast, 3/31 pre reveal reservation) but there's no way in heck I get my car in October or November.

yaheya | 13 ottobre 2017

Ok sorry folks looks like I got only couple of response that was along the line of my request. The rest is stone throwing at each other. Please stop this. Again if you have heard anything from Tesla and you are between oct-dec delivery estimate let us know.

topher | 13 ottobre 2017

" the last we heard from Tesla is that 7% of existing owners worldwide reserved a model 3. "

No, that isn't what they said. They said that 7% of reservationists were previous customers (not even implying that they bought a car, just took a test drive, or such). This was early on, so probably between 5,000 and 20,000.

Thank you kindly.

KP in NPT | 13 ottobre 2017

Hmm I didn't take it that way Topher...but regardless, doubtful it's 50K.

JAD | 13 ottobre 2017

I have heard 6-8 weeks from early October to configure, so mid-November, which would put delivery in the estimated window of Oct-Dec. Why do people feel a window is missed if the first part is missed? A delivery on Dec 31 means Oct-Dec was correct.

yaheya | 13 ottobre 2017

JAD good point. I am just curious, because it is absolutely quiet from Tesla. If you do Google Search, on Model 3 news, you don't get any result on additional car delivery beyond 300. So I was curious what is happening. At the end, I must say, Tesla should be grateful to its loyal fans, I am not aware of any other car manufacturing company that enjoys this much loyalty. I will continue to support them, because I believe in them. Hopefully, loyalty exists on both sides.

Frank99 | 13 ottobre 2017

I agree - Tesla has gone remarkably silent on the Model 3. In addition, we've heard about very few new deliveries, and haven't seen any new VINs in a while. As a non-owner, my estimated delivery still shows Nov-Jan, and I'm waiting (not quite patiently) for the first reports of owners being asked to configure. I figure it's gotta be SamO.

stevenmaifert | 13 ottobre 2017

My delivery window estimate is still Oct - Dec 2017. The operative word is estimate. I don't consider that to be a hard and fast commitment on the part of Tesla because it is just an "estimate". If it slips because of unexpected "bottlenecks" in production dynamics; No biggie. It will still be an awesome car when it gets here.

gar1116 | 13 ottobre 2017

"Clearly no non-employees on the "October-November" are going to be seeing their cars this month. Oh, sure, it's possible Tesla sneaks 1-2 out, like chum to sharks, to watch the forums alight in renewed bowing and gushing by the acolytes, but it's clear the time frame outlined in July is already long since dead. Receipt of vehicle by non-employees in November is essentially a no-go and there may not even be a significant ramp this year at all.

Nobody here believes Tesla will produce 5,000 vehicles/week in December, per original estimates. Not a single person."

Not with that attitude!

Garyeop | 13 ottobre 2017

Tesla has gone wiiet because they have grown up. They are publicly traded and are about to go into a very volitile trading time. They may go to 0 or 2000 and either direction someone will sue because they lost money. All Tesla should say over next 6 months is "We have done..." not "We will do...".

Garyeop | 13 ottobre 2017

Quiet ^^

KP in NPT | 13 ottobre 2017

VIN 516 was spotted in Palo Alto. (thread today on reddit.)

phil | 13 ottobre 2017

Too late for that, unfortunately. Would have been great advice a year ago or even 6 months ago.

But now Tesla/Musk have expressed "confidence" in 5,000 per week and 10,000 per week. If that confidence wanes or disappears, they now have an obligation to apprise investors and prospective customers. The obligation is at least moral, and probably at some point, legal with respect to investors.

SamO | 13 ottobre 2017

I am the first owner reservation at the Santa Monica store (as of 3/31/16). That status could change, with the 6 non-owners in front of me buying a Model S or X.

I have heard NOTHING from Tesla.

noleaf4me | 13 ottobre 2017

We have heard a lot from you SamO....

SamO | 13 ottobre 2017

Busy making rocket parts :-)

Xerogas | 13 ottobre 2017

Sat in VIN 506 in San Diego today

ReD eXiLe ms us | 13 ottobre 2017

Clearly, none of us replying to this thread have any inside information or insight whatsoever. So attempts at either realistic or optimistic predictions have the same weight. Past performance is not indicative of future blah, blah-blah, blah, blah-blah, and stuff.

Cclcal | 13 ottobre 2017

I was Oct-Dec 2017 and it got changed to Nov-Jan 2018.

Where in SD did you see the M3?

PHXeV8tr | 14 ottobre 2017

Current S owner and ours still says OCT-DEC, which I take to be DEC at the earliest. However, I don't want a black interior, and since Elon has suggested the only choice is paint color, I will probably wait for more choices, might even wait for dual motor, if it isn't going to cost me the tax credit.

Pankajkchhabra | 14 ottobre 2017

I was Oct-Dec 2017 and it got changed to Nov-Jan 2018.

2015P90DI | 14 ottobre 2017

Just checked, mine still says Oct-Dec. Assuming it will change for everyone soon enough as it will look silly to have an possible "Oct" deliver estimate come November. I guess the more relevant figure is the end date of the range. That's probably the date people should focus on and hope is met and just ignore the early date of the range. If they surprise you, then great, but if you're planning on the early date, you'll almost certainly be disappointed.

I had a saying with one of my suppliers back in the day that was always late on delivering....."Take whatever delivery time (in months) he gives, double it and add 2, then you'll know how long it's actually going to take". In 8 years, he surprised us once!! LOL. Seems to apply well to Tesla :-). Take the original 3-5 month time frame (July to Oct or Dec), double it (6-10 months) and add 2. Early estimate based on that method should have my car arriving as soon as March, 2018 or as late as July. Personally, I hope it takes till November for my own personal situation!! But any time sooner would be welcomed as well.

dd.micsol | 14 ottobre 2017

What would be a smart move by Tesla right now is to change the wording to 'invited to configure' rather than 'delivery'.
You will be invited to configure your car during that date line.
It will take at least a month to get your car after that between configure - grace period - close config - into production - quality control check - boarding the shipping truck and commute across the country-especially during winter months.

As for poster who says 50k employee reservations-my god he's horrific at math.
257k x 5% = what? 50k? He's nuts. Can I invest my money with you? (jokingly)
There are another 5% that are owners now-maybe 7%.
12% of now 379k= about 5k cars.
And I'm probably not completely correct to exactness.

david_gelfand | 14 ottobre 2017

Model S owner with 31 March reservation who lives ~32 miles from factory. "My Tesla" still advises Oct - Dec Delivery.

JAD | 14 ottobre 2017

Anyone who is a current owner and has the delivery window of Oct-Dec should be familiar enough with Tesla to KNOW that means December, NOT October. So far, nothing has changed in my expectations, and I still expect my car in December. A red sleigh to deliver packages :)

Mozart | 14 ottobre 2017

Mine is still Oct-Dec delivery. Current Tesla owner, stood in line at Corte Medera, CA on 3/31/16.

Bluesday Afternoon | 14 ottobre 2017

Same as @byrned for Oct-Dec, 2017, based on early March 31 in store reservation and Model S owner (First Production). Our 2nd Model 3 reserved on April 13, 2017, has not changed from Mar-May (First Production). Not sure why the 2nd Model 3 is also called First Production.

lyncoln66 | 14 ottobre 2017

In my Tesla account it says estimated delivery is April or may. I reserved on April 1, 2016 and I am a non owner.

DMSDesign | 14 ottobre 2017

I am patient with respect to when I get mine. However, for me, I have some strategic planning to do prior to receiving my Model 3. I would like Tesla to update realistically my ETA Currently it i October to December. Would be nice to see an update

FifthOnLeft | 14 ottobre 2017

Both my reservations say "Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation" - virtually unchanged since day 1. I stood in line early morning at Santana Row store in San Jose.

How did you guys from other cities / states get an estimate ? I live only a stone's throw from the Fremont factory.

M3forMe | 14 ottobre 2017

@HenrySJ - click on Manage then "Learn More" next to the Delivery Estimator on the right hand side.

Xerogas | 14 ottobre 2017
Rutrow | 15 ottobre 2017

The early end of the delivery window should be seen as the most optimistic of estimates. Tesla wouldn't want to surprise customers with a delivery ahead of their estimate. Although many would welcome an early delivery it could cause difficulty for some.

drbob | 16 ottobre 2017

I'm on the Oct-Dec schedule and I think optimistic would be Christmas - fingers crossed as my lease on my Model S ends on 12/26!