Forums

Model 3 used will be a great commuter

Model 3 used will be a great commuter

- I imagine that a number of early adopters will want to replace their first generation Model 3 with the AWD version and more interior options.

- There are good chances that a HUD should be needed. If so, the price for the first gen Model 3 would drop.

- There are also rumours that in a couple of years, side mirrors should be replaced with cameras. You will not want to miss that one.

- If we experience typical 40% at 20K miles, in 2019 you could be getting a Model 3 under $30K. Great commuter.

Conclusion: for those of us looking for a car with low operational costs, stylish and fun to drive, it seems a Model 3 certified pre-owned will be a killer.

Carl Thompson | 8 dicembre 2017

It totally would be a great deal at that time. But I'm impatient and don't want to wait so I'll pay the penalty.

SamO | 8 dicembre 2017

Agree with AWD.

Don't agree with HUD. Unless we are talking far enough ahead for the steering wheel to be gone. Not 2019.

Side mirrors don't matter if current cars are Full Self Driving. Just a lower coefficient of drag, so slightly longer range.

andy.connor.e | 8 dicembre 2017

Also dont agree with HUD. Unless we are going to start implementing the holographic display INSIDE the windshield similar to that of fighter jets. Then im all for it.

TeslaTap.com | 8 dicembre 2017

Sounds like a lot of hopeful thinking (nothing wrong with that).

I don't think many S owners went out and dumped their old S RWD with the S AWD came out. The RWD S drove better than many AWD competitors, due to Tesla's instant EV traction control that's not possible in any ICE car.

I suspect less than 1% of cars made today have a HUD, and most cars even costing 5 times as much don't have HUD. Not saying it isn't a nice to have, but even the Semi and Roadster prototypes don't have HUD. Seems very unlikely to appear, despite a few thinking it is the end of the world without it.

As for side mirrors, I'd also think that would be cool, but the glacial pace of regulatory change means it could be 20+ years before they are allowed.

A few days ago, I did an analysis of what a Model S depreciates too in 2 years (if in Excellent condition, < 20K miles). KKB.com had It depreciating from 5% to 20%. I didn't check one in poorer condition with higher milage. It might be in the 40% area so this number is possible.

Sorry to say, I don't think there will be a large used or CPO Model 3 market in 2 years. More like 3-4 years. Few owners dump a car in 2 years, especially ones they like.

Rutrow | 8 dicembre 2017

Way to go TeslaTap. :-(

Why don't you tell OP that there's no Santa Claus while you're at it.

gar1116 | 8 dicembre 2017

Wait. What! No Santa Claus?!? What?
How am I supposed to get a M3 in my driveway this year WITHOUT Santa?

This changes everything.....

Yodrak. | 8 dicembre 2017

I understand that Santa and Christmas will both be revoked in the tax reform reconciliation process.

andy.connor.e | 8 dicembre 2017

Federal government has overruled Santa.

Syruspicarus2016 | 8 dicembre 2017

Yodrak, are you serious about your claim about tax credits? The tax credit is coming to and end to Tesla buyers relatively soon with or without a much needed tax reform. That said, it is more likely killing the EV fed tax credit sooner will benefit Tesla. It means all other companies will have a harder time bringing their junk to market.

Syruspicarus2016 | 8 dicembre 2017

Andy, no, I think you and many others think Robin Hood is Santa. Millions of tax payers could welcome a tax reduction so that they can purchase whatever they want. I dont think it is necessary to make the rest of the country pay $7,500 for you and few others buy a $50K+ car.

andy.connor.e | 8 dicembre 2017

Way to take it completely over the cliff, and then chase after it all the way down to the bottom.

And btw, i've covered this previously. In total after the 200,000th EV Tesla sells, ~250 million taxpayers only end up taking $6 each out of their pocket. Thats a pretty small price to pay, compared to the other programs in effect. Like welfare, giving people free money. Calm down.

andy.connor.e | 8 dicembre 2017

And dipstick. Its not a $50k+ car. Its a $35k car. If you choose to add extra optional addons thats on you. In comparison, a desktop computer is not a $3000 computer (at base price) because you decided to add a bunch of unnecessary hardware. Why do people keep saying this.

Carl Thompson | 8 dicembre 2017

@andy.connor.e:
"Its not a $50k+ car. Its a $35k car. ... Why do people keep saying this."

Because Tesla won't sell you a $35k Model 3 right now? And quite possibly they won't until _after_ the rebate is gone? After all it's easier to force-upsell $14k worth of options to people if you can get the government to pay for half.

andy.connor.e | 8 dicembre 2017

And if you choose to not wait until the $35k is available, thats your choice to accept the extra addons. Should you not want the extra addons you may find unnecessary, then wait. Dont buy the $49k version. Accepting the extra addons to get it now, doesnt automatically make it "a $50k+ car". Thats why they're options. It seems we are all STILL stuck on this aspect of understanding. #StepsBackwards (or did we ever move forward)

Yodrak. | 8 dicembre 2017

"Yodrak, are you serious about your claim about tax credits?"

I have made no claim about tax credits.

giskard | 8 dicembre 2017

Back to the OP ...

I think it will be a few years yet before there is a healthy used Model 3 market. The big thing that has to happen first is Tesla has to produce enough cars to meet demand. Until that happens I expect depreciation to be pretty darn low.

And it's not just the current reservation list they have to get through but the additional reservations that pop up after more people see them in the real world. It could be a very long time before someone could walk into a Tesla delivery center, order a car, and take delivery in a few weeks (without a pre-reservation). Only then do I expect used prices to be significantly lower than new.

I could be wrong though. Maybe the Model Y (or upcoming pickup truck) will be so awesome that a huge number of Model 3 owners/reservation holders will switch en masse. Or mayber one of the traditional automakers will wave a magic wand and a compelling car + fast charging network will materialize out of thin air. I certainly wouldn't bet on the last one :)

Carl Thompson | 8 dicembre 2017

"Accepting the extra addons to get it now, doesnt automatically make it 'a $50k+ car'."

Yes, it does. If the version you _must_ buy to get the car is $50k+ then it's a $50k+ car. Sure Tesla will add a different $35k version _later_. But right now all Tesla Model 3s are $50k+ cars.

mos6507 | 8 dicembre 2017

"Also dont agree with HUD."

That's why there are things called options.

mos6507 | 8 dicembre 2017

"Also dont agree with HUD."

That's why there are things called options.

noleaf4me | 8 dicembre 2017

A HUD will come to the S/X before the 3 -- you can bet on that one.