How long the era of electric cars will last ?

How long the era of electric cars will last ?

Era of benzin cars was about 100 years, era of electric cars will be around 10 years, what do you think will be next ?

ENGINEER | 2013年6月28日

I read something about Fuel Cells becoming more of a reality, and that uses Hydrogen and Oxygen to create electricity, with water as a byproduct. I also remember Atmospheric Electricity from Atlas Shrugged, but Fuel Cells are probably next. Either way it'll still take a while.

Brian H | 2013年6月28日

Fuel cells for cars are not happening. Transporting/transferring hydrogen into a small vehicle like a car is a beast. Using the CH4 methane molecule is more efficient than compressed hydrogen. Which leaks out of just about any container.

Tslarevolution | 2013年6月28日

Fuel cells also use platinum as a catalyst for the reaction of H and O, which is expensive and rare.

Benz | 2013年6月29日

People shall still be driving ICE vehicles in the next few decades, although in steadily decreasing numbers.

And on the other hand, people shall keep on driving EV's in steadily increasing numbers.

At the moment the marketshare of EV's is 0.5% of total sales.

The era of EV's has just started, and it will not end anytime soon, at least not in the next few centuries.

Brian H | 2013年6月29日

Predicting centuries of technology is a) science fiction, and b) un-testable. Not usable for any kind of decision-making.

SamO | 2013年6月29日

Increasing share of cars produced will happen until 2030 when (minimum) half of all new cars produced will be electric.

ENGINEER | 2013年6月29日

@Tslarevolution I read an article at Yahoo! that commented about platinum being substituted. The forum won't let me share the link, but it's from ConsumerReports.

lph | 2013年6月29日

I believe electric vehicles will be around for a long time now that we are starting to have better batteries (and getting better). It is the most efficient and versitile means of powered transportationwe have at the moment. With the possibility of room temp superconductors (or at least very low resistance wireing) in the future, the energy transportation costs could drop to almost zero. This will make the power plant to wheel efficency so good that the possibility of another technology in the near future supplanting electric very unlikely. The electric revolution is just begining!
Fuel cell tech IMO is a joke (although it will continue to serve a niche market) that has been played on the public for too long mostly by car companies trying to stall the progress of better tech. Due to its use of hydrogen it is also inherently inefficent, leaky and dangerous. But it is complicated so that like hybrid cars it makes a bigger industry (more people employed) to make and service.
For me simple is better, however we can expect far fewer people employed in the electric car industry of the future.

ENGINEER | 2013年6月29日

And I'm definitely not expecting fuel cell over electric, just something I read around. In my opinion Tesla and other electric companies are showing that electric power is the next big thing.

CalDreamin | 2013年6月29日

Fuel cell cars are electric cars, they are FCEVs. Fuel cell EVs use hydrogen to store energy and produce electricity instead of batteries in BEVs. Unlike electric power, there is no network for producing and distributing the hydrogen needed in FCEVs. Combined with problems associated with storing hydrogen that others have mentioned here, along with continuing advances in battery technology, I'm not expecting FCEVs to be practical any time soon, if ever.

ian | 2013年6月29日

10 years for EV's? I think our thread starter left a 0 off that number. True, it's very hard to predict what the future may hold but electric is looking good for what's foreseeable.

baku | 2013年6月30日

Electric battery car era will continue not for the next 10 year, but likely for the at least next 500 years.

Benz | 2013年6月30日

@ baku

Indeed, it's not a matter of years, instead it's a matter of centuries!

Brian H | 2013年6月30日

What, have you no faith in future transporter tech? >:P

TeslaWestCoast | 2013年6月30日

EV's are far-and-away the most efficient form of personal transportation technology available today, and it is constantly improving.

Equally as important as the advent of electric vehicles is the increasingly speedy development of electric charging infrastructure. Just a few months ago, Tesla Superchargers were capable of delivering 160 miles of charge in 30 minutes. Today, that figure has improved to 200 miles of charge in 30 minutes. At this rate, Tesla stations may be able to deliver 300 miles of charge in 10-15 minutes by the time Gen III is rolled out.

I'm not sure how long the EV era will last, but I am definitely looking forward to seeing just how efficient Tesla and EVs can become.

Benz | 2013年6月30日

@ TeslaSomeday

At the moment it's still 90 kWh per hour.
In (roundabout) September 2013 it's going to be 120 kWh per hour.

And JB Straubel has mentioned that even faster charging will be possible. Maybe next year already?

TeslaWestCoast | 2013年6月30日


Thank you for the correction.

TeslaWestCoast | 2013年6月30日

Maybe I'm just excited for Tesla to prove all the doubters wrong, but I think the completion of new charging stations across the country is even more exciting than the upgrades to the existing stations.

The increase in the number of charging stations should be the final dagger in the range anxiety doubter debate. I can't wait for that day to come.

ttoomm1 | 2013年7月2日

It is no doubt that Tesla S model is the most desirable car on the world today, I am just saying that technology changes so fastly that today's novelty will looks old within 20 years, I mean in technological sense.
Within 20 years a huge accumulators in the cars will looks primitive. Each car will have their own source of energy and technology which will provide this, will be so small and light that you could put it into the passanger side dash.

Benz | 2013年7月2日

Anyhow, burning gas (oil) will be history.

jen123 | 2013年7月2日

HMMM. Electric car would be more technological and modern. After one decade will never know a flying car would be invented.

Friends, visit my club:

roseland67 | 2013年7月2日

Oh I dunno,
The electric motor industry lasted pretty long.

Probably not in my lifetime, but certainly in my children's,
I would expect that urban transportation will no longer
be using internal combustion engines.

EvaP | 2013年7月2日

I think it will last until something more advanced comes along. Like using sun energy only or some other energy source that we have not discovered yet. My guess is that it will outlive our generation.

DavidDC | 2013年7月5日

I think we also need to think about the fun possibility of riding electric scooters to work. It seems practical if it is under 10 miles. My handicapped co-worker lets me ride in her chair scooter here at work and it is a blast. Why can't we drive things like this on local streets maybe in the bike lane? Trust me, if you try one you will want one for commuting or shopping.