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No public preview of the X

No public preview of the X

Musk just said there will be no public preview of the X. It will not be on display at any auto shows prior to the launch. The X will be revealed when the deliveries start. Not sure how this is going to work with reservation holders.

He also said there are features that no one knows about and will not be revealed until launch.

aljjr2 | 2015年2月11日

Truly an "ah ha" moment on the Model X from the shareholder call. I took the comment not just auto shows, but in the larger context of a "reveal event" as something NOT planned for the Model X.

Conjecture: Possible implications to the base platform that can effect the Model S. Therefore no prior announcements.

speyerj | 2015年2月11日

I assume that when he says it will be revealed when deliveries start that he means it will be revealed and they will start allowing reservation orders to spec their orders at the same time. I don't think he means that reservation holders will somehow receive the car without seeing its specs.

NumberOne | 2015年2月11日

I agree. The reveal event will be when the first few Model X cars are delivered. That is likely when the order page will go live. The first 100 signature reservation holders are will likely be the only ones who get to pre order before the event, and the worst part is that they will not know what (new) features their cars will have until they get the cars. I am quite sure that they will be very pleased with what they get. Signatures typically come with all available options, so the only real choices will be interior and exterior colors, and possibly performance or standard motors.

The first few thousand reservation holders will not have to wait very long, because the total production time is likely less than 30 days. Tesla also has the option to build Model X battery packs in advance to expedite things once the production ramp up begins.

It is very exiting to know that we will see the car in just six months, and I will be driving mine in as little as 8 months!

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月11日

Surprise! Your Model X is in production. You'll be delighted when you get the car and find out what it is. You will especially like the second row seats. Oh, you get to pick the color and whether or not there is a third row. Here's your VIN. With your color selection, performance and seating choices it will cost $99,900. Delivery estinate is August, 2015.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月11日

Estimate, that is. This truly "exiting"...

vandacca | 2015年2月11日

That's not how I heard it. It sounded to me that:
(a) The Model-X will not be shown at any auto shows
(b) There will be some new features that won't be revealed until deliveries start

I don't believe he specifically stated that there wasn't going to be a dedicated event (as they have done before) for the Model-X prior to delivery starting.

Therefore, I'm still assuming that there will be some sort of production reveal in the next few months.

aljjr2 | 2015年2月11日

@LeonardD hope you're are right. It seems no "reveal" earlier in the year, but cars will be delivered much quicker. I can't even imagine what "The second row seats are link nothing seen before" even means. Wow. New excitement.

AlMc | 2015年2月11日
Gen3Joe | 2015年2月11日

The X looks really good!

All my fears of it looking like a Prius just vanished. This shows how good of a camo job they did for testing.

paradis | 2015年2月11日

It looked to me like there is still some modest camo on this one. Rear end, tail lights, no badging, nose???

ian t.wa.us | 2015年2月11日

That was a bit disappointing to hear him say. I think LeonardD's prediction will be pretty much exactly how it plays out.

Great picture indeed! Thanks for the link AIMc!

gerardP | 2015年2月12日

I wonder, isn't that one the old prototype just repainted and with a few minor additions ,like the towing bulb?

NumberOne | 2015年2月12日

The nose is different also, so it really looks like a new one.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

@AIMc: could you please have a couple of those photos taken with a better exposure setting? Seriously, great find. Big honkin' side mirrors tell the tale.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

Also FW doors look like I glued them in...

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

Come to think of it, maybe they are afraid of "Model S envy" and are going to try to minimize the overhang of the Model S sales when the X is at last revealed. If a lot of folks cancel S orders and add to the X backlog, that will play hob with production. How's that for wishful thinking?

raffael s. | 2015年2月12日

I know we had lots of speculation about this but, could it be because of a new battery?
Pros:
-Model X site changed to multiple battery options from 60kwh and 85kwh
-stats remain unknown until the release
-More ZEV credits for 300+ mile car
Cons
-No change to the drivetrain for about a year ( was it november 14?)
-costs of implementing a new battery

If this would be the case it would make sense not to tell everyone about it, because nobody would buy a S if you could wait for 5 month to buy one with more range. On the other hand: some very angry Model S85 owners

Lucythesplainer | 2015年2月12日

IMHO, Rafael & George are all over this like a rash. Company is keeping details quiet to suppress additional pre-orders of MX, keep S, SD hot. MX teases we have seen so far are not butt-ugly like most utes, so why not have the advantages MX offers?

ICE car sites are reveling in the financials & delays. Green with envy, soon to be greener!

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

I was told by a reliable source this week that the 18650 cells in the 85 kwh pack now run at a nominal 4 volts instead of the former 3.7 volts. All else being equal, the 85 pack may actually have 92 kWh capacity now, unannounced for the time being.

raffael s. | 2015年2月12日

@george: really reliable source? This would be great! Since when do they use those? And is the Capacity in Ah unchanged? Hard to believe you can leave the Capacity the same but pull up the potential. Would you be so kind to ask your source again? But then why not make it public if lets say 90-100 kwh already happened?

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

@raffael: I can't ask the guy again. It would be too obvious that I am pumping him for information. The 4 volt figure was volunteered. I did not ask about the aH capacity, just guessing that it goes up in proportion to the voltage because the dimensions of the cells are unchanged which means cross-section for current flow is the same. I am also wondering why it has been kept a secret. Maybe the company wants to wait a considerable length of time before revealing it to reduce the backlash from havenots. It's a mystery but I trust the source, a person in a position to have intimate knowledge of MS HW and SW details.

jjs | 2015年2月12日

george - If they do have a considerably better battery and 85-92 is definitely considerably better, I think they must be very careful on how they introduce it. You will definitely have those who got the last of the 85s upset.

A question for the EEs out there. Could Tesla mix and match cells. If so they could very slowly ramp up the capacity. Going from 85-86-87, etc over a year. That would help quell some of the backlash.

jjs | 2015年2月12日

....although the more likely scenario would simply be to offer a 92 at a premium price. Then slowly discontinue the 85s.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月12日

Can only mix and match by group. In the 85 they have 6 groups of 74 cells in parallel in each of 16 modules. The 6 groups are connected in series. You could theoretically mix groups of 74 but I doubt that would be the case. The assertion made to me that they use 4 volt cells now suugests a wholesale substitution. Why this has been done and for what application is a mystery to me. By the way, I was also told that, when hooked to a Supercharger there is a communications interchange that lets the supercharger know the serial number and design specs. of the battery pack in the car being charged. That's how the Supercharger can differentiate between 60 and 85 kWh packs, charging the 14 module 60 at 337 volts and the 16 module 85 at something greater than 377 volts.

jjs | 2015年2月12日

Pretty much as I suspected. Possible, but highly complicated and probably not worth the risk. Simple premium pricing would be a better option. Those that have speculated as much for the X may indeed be proven right.

AA_4_Tesla | 2015年2月12日

@georgehawley.fl.us- Maybe the extra voltage counteracts the higher weight of the model X? Squeeze a little more range for those anxious folks driving their new crossover.

In any case, extra features are nice as long as they don't cause more delays.

raffael s. | 2015年2月13日

If they have improved it the number of cells have to stay the same, the output in
Volt is not really the problem because normally the inverter can or should handle more or less Voltage.
A higher Potential could also bring losses due to internal resistance down. I have been searching a litte on the internet for upcoming Panasonic cells.There has been lots of rumors about the NCR18650C having more than 4 Ah and more than 4 Volt. What do the Model S cells have 3200-3600 mAh?
This would improve overall Capacity by at least 23% and would push even the P85D over 300 miles.
BUT this is all rumors! I have no inside information at all! But 100+ kWh is what i am guessing. Elon and JB said for 2019/20 they expect a 400 mile battery. But you can not sell 270 miles to everyone and then make a huge leap to 400. If you would buy a Tesla a half year before it would be worthless. You can't just jump from 85 to 150 kWh over night but you can take two smaller steps to make it more acceptable.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2015年2月13日

@raffael: probably not worthless. The nice thing about the battery pack is that it can be changed out in a matter of a couple of minutes. Tesla could always offer a battery pack upgrade for sale. If new cars come with the upgraded pack, then comparable model older cars might be discounted by something around the cost of the battery pack.

jjs | 2015年2月13日

@george - The upgrade would be a very good way to go. The old batteries actually have a long life ahead of them in a secondary usage as home batteries for Solar/Wind electrical storage. In a static use like home/commercial energy storage size/weight are less a concern than cost.

raffael s. | 2015年2月13日

Not worthless but imagine this: 50% more energy per cell
-you bought half year before the release
-you decided to pay an extra, what is it 8000$ for the 85kwh, compared to the 60 kWh
-The new battery comes out (Elon said same price more range in 2019/20) in two types:
-60*1.5=90 and 85*1.5=128 (Range 300 and 400 on a normal S, without D)
So you bought a car for 8000$ more and 5kWh less than a half year later.
If you want to resell the car is has to compare to cars that where 10% cheaper with 15% more range
That are faster chargeable. Even if you can upgrade you would loose some money and I would be pissed. This would not be as drastic if you would divide this big leap into tow smaller steps. And you can give customers that want to upgrade better prices for their used battery because they would not be that much out of date. The price of a battery is determined by the cost of producing it so a better battery should not be more expensive in the long run. But by selling the new one with more kWhs per cell the kWh/dollar rate drops making the old battery worth less, so if tell would buy back your old battery for a fair cost they would buy energy storage at a higher rate than they can produce, making it a loss for Tesla.
In conclusion i assume 2 to 3 steps would be better for tesla and the consumer, whilst making the car more and more competitive over time. and if they start to sell the new battery and therefore an upgrade in a half year they can use the used ones for the home storage systems they reported to sell half year from now.
If I might have any flaws in my logic, please tell me straightforward, but in my mind a new battery for mid 2015 just makes sense

vandacca | 2015年2月13日

@raffael_s., the only thing I disagree with you on is the cost to Tesla with a staged increases of the battery packs.

There is a lot of research & design that goes into these battery packs and that costs money. It would be more fiscally responsible for Tesla to re-design the pack every few years when there is a significant improvement in battery technology.

Besides, if you purchased a new vehicle and in 4-5 years there is a significant improvement in battery technology, you can decide whether to pay for an upgrade fee to get the new pack or stick with your original one. It should only take minutes to swap out, and I'll assume Tesla will give you a fair trade-in value.

I would guess that most people would ride out the life of their battery and when it's 10 years old, they can benefit from a next-gen battery, thereby skipping one generation. That's what I do with the iPhone today. :) I think most people are used to technology improving at a faster rate than batteries and are okay not having the latest and greatest as soon as it comes out.

bobsiopener | 2015年2月13日

I agree that people will be upset if they just bought a car and then it's upgraded right after they buy it, but how is this different that how EVERYTHING is right now. You could have just bought the Ferrari 458 Italia and the next week Ferrari announced the 488GTB with 70 more hp, better looks, better MPG, etc... or you buy a Xbox 360 and they announce the Xbox One. This is just the way of things. I don't think Tesla should have to do anything special in releasing upgrades or technology. The only thing that would be great is if they offered the ability for existing owners to upgrade their models for a fee.

paradis | 2015年2月13日

@Raphael - Not really a flaw in your logic, but why is this situation any different than the rest of the electronics world? The computer, tv, graphics card, tablet, phone, etc, etc, etc that you buy today is obsolete 6 months later and replaced by a bigger, faster or more functional model at the same or lower cost. This is the risk/price an early adopter pays. He who waits for the final latest and greatest will never be able to pull the trigger.

raffael s. | 2015年2月14日

Ah you misunderstood me, i said steps forward are ok, as long as they are small enough. And because production/invention cycles strongly resemble consumer electronics one big step in 19/20 would be too big. And Batteries would cost the same that is what Elon said at q4 conference call. I just wanted to point out that there has to be al least one step and mid 2015 would be the best time in my opinion.

paradis | 2015年2月14日

Raff -I agree with that. I'm hoping for October-November delivery and significantly reduced range could be a deal breaker for me.

Red Sage ca us | 2015年2月14日

People seem to have varied definitions of what represents a 'big step' and what is an example of 'too soon' or 'too late' or 'too much at a time'... Since there is absolutely no way that Tesla Motors will be able to satisfy all those parameters, they shouldn't bother trying. Do as much as you can, as soon as you can, so that you can move on to the next challenge. Crybabies be [DURNED]. You want a good buying experience? Wait until 2020 to buy. Then don't follow any Tesla Motors news for a good six to eight years before thinking about buying again.

Sorted.

raffael s. | 2015年2月15日

@Red no you can not just make every possible improvement, when it is possible. Big things like the Battery have to be done in steps because implementing them stops production and costs money. A 2 year cycle would, in my opinion, be the best, that is what the whole consumer electronics industry is doing. With other improvements(motors, interior, entertainment...) in the years between. It would be like with the iPhoneX and Xs

Red Sage ca us | 2015年2月15日

Offering a higher capacity battery pack would stop exactly... nothing.

Tesla Motors does not have time to wait two years between revisions of its vehicles. That is the same traditional thinking that made it so Hyundai and Kia took over two decades to reach their current state in the US market. Every call to slow down, be more predictable, or allow customers to settle into their expectations for 'residual value' is a vote in favor of terminal failure.

There are too many forces that are waiting for the slightest opening to destroy Tesla. The singular advantage Tesla has right now is their level of innovation as compared to traditional automobile manufacturers. Tesla can press that advantage with their flexibility to bring changes to market, and the magnitude by which they can implement those advances.

Every single thing that Tesla can get right today for Model S and Model X is one less thing they must perfect for Model ≡.

vandacca | 2015年2月15日

I'm all for Tesla pushing hard on the R&D and staying ahead of the rest of the industry. That way when GM comes out with their supposed Model ≡ killer (the Bolt), they'll be embarrassed at how far behind they are.

raffael s. | 2015年2月15日

And they are pushing R&D! But you can not make every small change go into production, you would end up with hundreds of different, batteries and for every battery you would ned extra inverters plus software, charging software at home and especially at the superchargers. No Tesla is a small company. They can not even handle bringing out the X in time. Implementing every incremental step in battery development would be mad. I am not saying those steps are bad for the consumer! It is the best thing for ensuring a transition to a 100% EV market. Nor am i saying they have to have a step in 2015 or even two until 2019. That all is just speculation based on how I would operate and tesla tends to operate now. The days of just putting the word out are over, they have gotten more and more secretive and they need to. To survive the next 5 years, Tesla has to be more than 1 step ahead of the game.

ian t.wa.us | 2015年2月15日

@raffael s. - In response to your comment about not putting every little R&D change into production.

You must have missed the thread over at TMC.com talking about how the very first 85kWh packs in the S are limited to 90kW Supercharging even though they've ramped up the Superchargers to 135kW's. You'll read that Tesla currently has at least 4 different versions of the 85kWh pack in the model S; A, B, D, E (maybe more as I haven't checked the thread myself in a few months).

Here's a link...

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/24799-Older-Teslas-limited...

Wiki: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Battery%20table

Also, per Elon's comments in the Q2 or Q3 investors call last year he said that they have been making small changes in the production line that has been bringing the weight of the S down.

Maybe we're talking about different things but it sure seems to me that Tesla does NOT wait to implement changes if they feel it will improve the product.

Cheers!

Red Sage ca us | 2015年2月15日

I'm not speaking of 'incremental steps in battery technology'. I'm talking about giant leaps.

⋗ If Tesla Motors finds a way to make a 135 kWh battery pack vehicle that allows a 375-420 mile range in Model S and Model X, and offer it for $130,000 or less by August 2015, they should do it. They will sell every single one of them.

raffael s. | 2015年2月16日

@ Ian: did not know that! Wow that is impressive from a product engineers point of view!
@ Red: But that would not be the case more like 100kwh. Battery technology is not that fast progressing, I also assume with Tesla using the 18650s changing the cells in a major way strongly depends on Panasonic. If they said we want to wait Tesla would have to recognize it.

So... We have taken a litte detour here. What i have learned is that some of you think that Tesla would not improve batteries in medium sized steps but in incremental mini steps or at least in much smaller steps than I thought. If that where the case I don't see Tesa build anything like a 400 mile car in 4-5 years. We had almost three consecutive years without any improvement in overall battery Capacity. Set aside any noticeable change in volumetric or gravimetric Energy density. Maybe its just my wishful thinking but that is not what I believe. Maybe just not what i want to believe?

Red Sage ca us | 2015年2月16日

People here complain about everything... Automatically folding mirrors, parking sensors, parcel shelf, center console, CHAdeMO adapter, cup holders, a 1.5° angle difference in fold down between seat designs... To them EVERYTHING is a MAJOR change! There is no perspective, no patience, no priority. They just complain.

So... Knowing that there is no way to prevent the complaints... Because the longer you wait to implement changes, the more they complain... And the sooner you act to implement changes, the more they complain... It is best to simply put out the very best product you can the very soonest you can manage. Period.

That's why I have no problem with how the Tesla Motors 'D' Event was handled. BAM! Autopilot and dual motor AWD. BMW M3 and M5, Mercedes-Benz AMG, Saleen -- dismissed. Complaints about 'missing features' that people had on a Kia -- dismissed. More stuff to come later.

And people still found a way to complain about THAT.

No. Tesla Motors should simply work to improve their cars. No slowing down. No holding back. No quarterly, bi-annual, perennial, or every-two-years updates. Git 'er done. NOW. Because you can.

jjs | 2015年2月16日

There you go again Red quoting that great literary giant without citing your source.

Also I would encourage you to endeavor in the future to tell us how you really feel. Pent up emotion can be so damaging to your health. ;)

Oh and +1 Red

Guy2095 | 2015年2月16日

Tesla also said they would be selling batteries for solar installations. Sounds like a perfect economic/recycling/green use for traded-in car battery packs, no?

GuyDormehl | 2015年2月17日

Just had a thought while walking the dogs.....

Tesla want something to 'spring on the public' at the last moment that won't impact on the specifications/colour/options etc without letting the cat out the bag before.

Clearly this idea is fraught with all the problems people have listed - except, perhaps, this one.

The MX will be released with wireless charging capabilities from day one. Standard plug-in charging still available but if you buy the 'charging' garage floor then no need to plug in and the self-parking car makes sense and Elon's 'joke' about a remote arm waving around in the garage to insert the plug will just be a red-herring....

This would only enhance the MX, catapult Tesla head of the rest without impacting on the current MS ownership. And all reserved specifications can stay the same.

Maybe the feature could even be retro-fitted to MS's?!

OK just an idea and wishful thinking - but NOT impossible.

larmorfreq | 2015年2月17日

May be: Home battery on side of garage, with solar, arm which extends to self charge. Car will self park to appropriate location...

carlgo2 | 2015年2月17日

Why make the auto charging feature too complex. Simply have an arm extend out from the SC and the autonomous driving feature will back the car up onto it. So what if it is the butt of jokes...

ian t.wa.us | 2015年2月17日

Will the self driving be able to handle backing a trailer?

You all know the X will be able to tow don't you?

Will it also know when you have a rack attached to the hitch so when it's backing itself it doesn't drive whatever is on the hitch into the "EV Charging Only" signs at the Superchargers?

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