Q2 2014 Delivery Estimate

Q2 2014 Delivery Estimate

Based on the popularity of last quarter's thread, it must be time to start the Q2 thread. I'm thinking that NA sales will be down 200, EU will be down 400, and China will add 1400. RHD markets maybe 200. So 7500 total. Sound reasonable?

JoeFee | 2014年6月3日

Based on VIN's at 46,457 (5/29/14) ... production 8,200/ Deliveries 7000

renwo S alset | 2014年6月3日

Where's tes-s? I will not speculate until I get it straight from him, so I know the majority consensus.

Out4aDuck | 2014年6月5日

I see now that the Hong Kong Signatures have been moved from June to July. I'll have to reduce my RHD estimate by 150. Q2 estimate revised to 7350.

uselesslogin | 2014年6月5日

I certainly hope they don't miss their guidance as the VINs might suggest. The VINs have always been unreliable so maybe on the negative side this quarter. In that case I'm guessing they won't beat by much though so 7,600 delivered and 8,750 produced. My guess is really just adding a small beat onto the guidance in the shareholder letter.

tes-s | 2014年6月5日

If they miss sales guidance it will simply be because of international delivery logistics - delayed from Q2 to Q3. Besides shipping time, there can be many other factors delaying delivery.

They are selling all they can make, so I'd look more at the production number than sales number.

GAGSTESLA | 2014年6月5日

Hey tes-s, I brought a client of mine to the local Tesla Mall shop, the order time (if you ordered one today) is delivery in late September. I guess demand is falling in the US?

dborn | 2014年6月5日

My VIN, Australia RHD is 46612. Published VINS here are up to 46630 - there is a rumour here that Australian confirmations outstrip either Hong Kong or the UK. Does this help?
Our deliveries are due end July, Tesla time.

tes-s | 2014年6月5日

@GAGS - Not sure why you think late September delivery indicates lower US demand. If you order in the last month of the quarter, the vehicle is delivered in the next quarter. Been that way ever since they started international deliveries.

Very few US deliveries in July and August, but so far none pushed to Q4.

Out4aDuck | 2014年6月6日

I agree that although HK deliveries have been pushed out to Q3, it will not affect the total number of cars produced in Q2. I'm guessing that the delay is due to import regulations which can be tricky in Asia.