Looks like Elon confirmed 'free' HW3 upgrade for all HW2.* owners who purchased FSD. Projecting end of Q4.
Also tweeted Tesla will stop selling cars at consumer prices once FSD is perfect, per supply and demand. Grab em while you can!
I’m sure this estimate is based on another estimate that FSD will be feature complete by q4. It’s an aspirational estimate like everything. I’ll be happy when it gets here but my expectations are tempered.
Free is kind of a misnomer, we just pre-paid for it.
And it doesn’t work to put in a service request for a swap out. ;)
Not expecting swap-outs til 1st Qu 2020. All of those HW3 units are going into production vehicles now. Plus the software is not yet optimized for HW3, so zero benefit to having it yet. But we'll be glad when it comes!
yep, in non-sales speak. End of Q4 means Q1 of next year, minimum. Plus they are not going to be able to do half a million installs in a couple weeks or even months on top of the normal servce demand most likely.
@Joshan While they may have half million cars that have been sold that could be upgraded to AP 3.0 hardware the first ones to get them would be the people that pre paid for the FSD feature with their car. I would venture that would be much lower number. Say in the 20% range given that the logistics goes from 500K to 100K. Still a large number but still speculation at best because Tesla never officially released the number of sales had or added the FSD feature that I am aware of.
I am just going by Elons numbers himself. I am just trying to temper expectations Elon is always very "optimistic" with his time frames. I am as anxious as anyone to have it, believe me!!
looks like I was a victim of #FakeNews, they now updated the story with this disclaimer...
Correction: Article updated to clarify that not all of the 500,000 HW2 Tesla owners will get the upgrade for free, only the ones who have paid for the Full Self-Driving package
@Joshan agreed. Even though I got FSD, and Elon suggested we would be seeing FSD software ready by end of year, I don't really expect the Software state by mid 2020, with areas approving it by Quarter 3 2021. Widespread approval where I can totally let car drive without any intervention my best guess would be end of 2022.
Elon's track record indicates that his predictions on availability are often generous on when they will be available. Track record items was Model X followed by a better but still late on Mass production goals was the Model 3. Then Enhanced Summon I believe was suppose to be Spring 2019, but still only a handful Early Adopters are only ones getting to test it out. And those videos I have seen indicate it still likely has a ways to go before it's ready for mainstream.
There will come a day when full FSD firmware and certain features will only be able to run on HW3.
In that day if you paid for FSD you will be able to get an HW3 upgrade.
Not much to worry about until that day comes.
I’m not buying into the hype (this time)…
With the rate of advances in technology and hardware, odds are even HW3 will not be sufficient enough to run FSD effectively (just like HW2, 2.5) vs some other newer version HW4, etc..
Too many variables to make it worth risking imo + until I see it with my own eyes and know how it works + legality, I’m doing nothing.
Nice.....my Model X is going to love it.
If you have purchased FSD and HW3.5 is necessary, you will get it for free, just like you're gonna get HW3.0.
Wonder if they can do it as an assembly line like they did for the M3p spoilers.....maybe the new computer install requires recalibration....I hope not....
Sort of off topic, but I found the photo of the HW3 computer in the above-linked Verge story rather striking.
@Charley - I colorized the Tesla supplied HW3 image several months ago showing different hardware in the S/X/3 (MCU and AP) here: https://teslatap.com/articles/autopilot-processors-and-hardware-mcu-hw-d... Took about 3 hours of work! Not sure why Tesla only put out a B&W version.
How do I know which HW I have? I got the M3 LR AWD FSD delivered 4 weeks ago.
@jluiswn, If your build was mid April or later, you already have HW3.
So the article says upgrades for cars with HW2...does this include HW2.5 (which all pre midApril model 3s have), or were they literally just referring to the older HW2 cars? (Which is what the original tweeters question seemed to ask...). If so, perhaps HW2.5 swap out comes sooner?
End of Q4, 2023.
Not in any of the current cars. Unless someone who can see the future has an office at Tesla, since FSD (Level 4 or 5) does not yet exist, it is impossible to say if the current hardware can support it. At some point in real world there will be a realization that more hardware/sensors are needed and it will added in Teslas manufactured in 2021+ (HW4 or HW5). Then by 2023, we will have some version of it.
Could it be that Tesla’s definition of FSD is not level five autonomy? What I see them listing under FSD features coming later this year, are not really level five autonomy.
No reason we couldn’t see those FSD features currently listed complete this year.
@jgunn. My dog is going to love it.
Elon was asked at the autonomy day what he means by FSD, and he confirmed it was level 5. That being said, feature complete does not indicate FSD immediately. Likely we’re looking at end of 2020 before we see Level 4 sort of capabilities with everyone that has purchased FSD upgraded to HW3.
"...end of 2020 before we see Level 4 sort of capabilities"
As long as features are beta and require driver to be ready to take control, it will remain level 3. It is a large jump to level 4. That would need for features be ready and not beta, and perform all functions in certain circumstances and driver have the option to control the vehicle. That will be awhile.
... and awhile...