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"FREE FOR LIFE IS SUSTAINABLE"

"FREE FOR LIFE IS SUSTAINABLE"

Tesla Vice-President of Business Development Diarmuid O’Connell was in Amsterdam yesterday for the AVERE E-mobility Conference. The long-time Tesla executive, and one of the company’s first 50 employees, gave a short presentation before doing a Q&A with the audience.

A few nuggets:

Supercharging - Free Forever is sustainable.
Tesla wants to provide off the shelf solutions to other OEMs for batteries and other EV parts.
Tesla has a 3-3.5 year product cycle, about half the industry average.
Evolution of Net Metering going to make storage more viable and interesting.
V2G depends on development at the utilities. Currently at "smart charging" but eventually to arbitrage.
Tesla product line increase is coming beyond Model 3 including a truck.
Great story is shaping up in the China Destination Charging program.
Approaching 400,000 people have put down their reservation.

Video link in excellent article by Electrek.co

http://electrek.co/2016/04/14/tesla-model-3-reservations-2/

TaoJones | 2016年4月14日

Love it. Corroborates what Dr. Straubel said last year and then some. Thanks for posting.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月14日

Also that product line increase includes the Tesla Truck.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2016年4月14日

@jordan: absolutely right!

SamO | 2016年4月14日

@TaoJones,

Knew you'd appreciate the update on Supercharging.

@jordanrichard and @georgehawley,

Original posted edited to include info on the truck. This wasn't "new" information, but of increasing interest to many prospective owners.

tes-s | 2016年4月14日

I think a truck may be coming sooner than many people think. How hard would it be to put a truck body on the S/X skateboard? With a small battery capacity increase (100 or 110kWh) I think it is very viable.

I think they will soon have excess S/X capacity; a truck on the same skateboard could be a nice solution.

My only hesitation is how well a truck will sell at the S/X price point - that may cause Tesla to wait and build it on the M3 platform.

SamO | 2016年4月14日

Model Y should be coming before the truck.

Mathew98 | 2016年4月14日

My bet is a pickup shell for the M3 skateboard due to overall cost. If the small pickup is proven successful, then it would be followed by a full size pickup based on the MS/MX skateboard if the battery prices comes down drastically in a few years.

I'm not sure if there are much demands for $75K+ pickups for the time being...

PhillyGal | 2016年4月14日

The hardest part will be for Tesla to pace themselves. They have plenty of demand for M3 and will have even more with a crossover version. That's plenty to keep them busy.

But if I were them, I'd want a full line NOW!

jordanrichard | 2016年4月14日

SamO, with him specifying the truck just confirms what had been kicking around. Elon did indeed mentioned before, but that was a long while ago and almost seemed to be forgotten. Many new people here but more on the Model ≡ forum, have been asking if Tesla will build a truck. So, this answers/confirms it.

As for the truck being really expensive because of being on the MS/MX skateboard, I don't know about that. A pick up truck is a 2 person cab and a big open box. So take the MX and remove all the structure, doors, seats, glass behind the front seats. Also as we all know the biggest expense thus far has been the batteries. By the time they came out with the truck, the Gigafactory will definitely be up and running, reducing battery costs even further.

Mathew98 | 2016年4月14日

@Jordan - If the base 70 battery costs $30-$40K, then how much would the rest of the full size pickup cost?

Bighorn | 2016年4月14日

Elon's AMA tweets mentioned work on a truck last week.

It's not unusual for a full size truck to run $60K already.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月14日

$30-$40K now or is that what you are saying it will cost for a battery pack in 2020 ish?

Also when I question is being really expensive, I mean as much as a MX. So I am just theorizing that is you took a MX, removed everything behind the front seats, there is a real material and construction time savings. Then factor in the cheaper battery costs come the timeframe that it would be out and it will be less than a MX.

Present F-150s are not exactly cheap themselves.

SamO | 2016年4月15日

@Mathew98 and @Bighorn,

Full size truck comes first. If you are going to make a truck (or car) you make the most bad-a$$ version. But I think we will see a shortbed on the model 3.

How are they going to display all the new variants at the Showrooms? Those near me will hold 2 cars at most.

@jordanrichard,

IMO, retail for the pack will be $250-$350/kWh until the Gigafactory is producing lots of cells.

Elon has said the molecules of the battery are $60-70/kWh. "It's just about arranging those molecules."

The goal is $100/kWh.

Those lines will intersect at some unknown point in the future.

@PhillyGal,

It sounds like they might be making some big news "soon" about revised expansion plans. Should be interesting.

Silver2K | 2016年4月15日

@SamO

As per Chevy they are at $145 per kwh on the Bolt and inline with Elons estimates at this time. The gigafactory will and should trim 30% off that price making the $100 kwh goal possible.

SamO | 2016年4月15日

@Silver,

Chevy obfuscates the cell price in the much higher pack price.

Keep an eye on the powerwall and powerpack cell price costs for a good metric since they are simpler than the vehicle battery packs.

And they have lower margins than the replacement pack purchased from insurance.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月15日

SamO, right. That is what in your opinion is costs now and let's say that is true. What is also true is the they are not building the truck "now". It will be made after the M≡ and I will guess, after the CUV version fo the M≡ or perhaps at the same time. Going with Elon's goal of $100 p kwh, we could use/speculate with that figure, on what a Tesla pick up truck might cost and it would definitely be cheaper than a MX at it's current price.

Pungoteague_Dave | 2016年4月17日

The issue for an EV truck is price point. You can buy a full size Ford F-150, list price $24k, for $19.5k on the road - with an 8' bed, roll-up crank windows, vinyl and rubber interior, but with A/C and am/fm radio, eco-boot 6-cyl engine. We use these in our oyster farm business, buy a new one every year or so. No EV pickup truck can be made for half that number. There's lots of discussion about how great an EV truck would be, based on the huge number of F-150's sold, but the vast majority of those go to industrial users, tradesmen, even to Tesla for its ranger and towing fleet. The majority of F-150's and F-120's are sub-$30k models with black bumpers, steel wheels, and no frills. The price point and the need to tow heavy boats and stainless steel cage material for hundreds of miles each way make EV alternatives a nonstarter.

PaceyWhitter | 2016年4月17日

PD, sure, Tesla may never be able to make a true work truck, but a F150 platinum competitor could sell a lot of trucks.

NKYTA | 2016年4月17日

So just to clarify @PD, you are saying TM will -never- make a pickup truck?
;-)

kwen197 | 2016年4月17日

PD I think all your points are very true, however I believe there is a huge markets in the truck sector that Tesla could satisfy.

For instance the city haulers like UPS, FedX & USPS. They have the luxury of city warehouses ( garages ) where a

number of Superchargers can keep them going around the clock for a much lower operating cost and a greener

environment.

TaoJones | 2016年4月17日

They're* already working upon wireless charging specifically for route delivery trucks. By picking up juice at each stop, long charging stops become unnecessary. The fuel savings will defray the infrastructure and deployment costs.

I forget whom, but this effort is a step beyond the typical static wireless charging pad at home, and a step more attainable than the embedded charging apparatus in highways (testing stage only) in the United Kingdom.

I expect electric trucks - note the surface area underneath a typical UPS deilvery truck, for example - to arrive not too long after the pickup truck competitor Elon will build as, in part, a poke in the eye to Ford's F150 (for being difficult about the Model E trademark thing). Karma, baby.

georgehawley.fl.us | 2016年4月17日

Pick-up truck market seems to have tiers similar to the car market. Tesla might go after the high end using the S/X skateboard and maybe the compact end using the ≡ skateboard.

It will be fun watching YouTube videos of a Tesla truck in a drag race against a Corvette.

Pungoteague_Dave | 2016年4月17日

@PaceyWhitter "PD, sure, Tesla may never be able to make a true work truck, but a F150 platinum competitor could sell a lot of trucks."

I have several cheap F-150 work trucks - the sub-$20k wonders referenced above. I also have a 2015 Platinum, with all the AP stuff like lane keeping, adaptive cruise - MSRP for fully optioned version was $62k, after discount we paid $57k for a special-order truck at top spec. It is my personal tow vehicle, with the cheaper rubber-lined versions in the oyster company fleet. It has way more content, technology, and bits and pieces than my P85D, with equal or more luxury appointments - it has a superior interior fit and finish.

I don't see how Tesla could compete with the heavy-duty (11,400-lb towing capacity - and I use every bit when pulling the offshore boat or car hauler) requirements at the high end of the pickup truck market - folks who buy those tend to have serious uses and need the full-frame, heavy, high-physical-profile nature of those trucks. I would buy a Tesla version, but I would also pay the $150k minimum price to achieve the current F-150 Platinum standard - it would have to have a 200-kwh battery to start. My '15 Platinum F-150 gets 23 mpg highway unloaded, but only 9 mpg pulling the box trailer with a car inside, and range goes from over 800 miles, down to about 342 miles, still way more than any Tesla. A big truck MUST have that kind of range - so at least a 200kwh battery - and then charging speed feasibility becomes an issue - will folks really be willing to wait 2 hours at a Supercharger when hauling a boat from Maryland to upstate New York, like we do most years? Probably not. Weight, size, and towing are killers for EVs. I'm in if Tesla does it, but it cannot be a crippled capability truck that looks like one, but is really more like the pansy-ass Honda Ridgeline, with a unit body and sub-5,000-lb towing capacity.

@NKYTA "So just to clarify @PD, you are saying TM will -never- make a pickup truck? ;-)"

No I did not say that - I actually think they will, but do you remember the Subaru Brat or the current Chevrolet Colorado? I am afraid that will be what Tesla creates - and again, the Colorado is a $20k base price truck, and $37,555 win top trim, 4WD, and fully loaded with NAV, etc. Do you seriously think that Tesla will be able to build a luxury pickup truck that competes with that? They will likely make one, but I am worried that it will be a luxo-poser, for big bucks, but without the capability of real truck products - see the Model X as an example. Price equals volume (see the 3). Yes, I would buy one, but few real truck users would. It would never work for my business truck needs, and I'd still have to have the Platinum for serious long distance towing duty. I could see popping on a motorcycle trailer (1,500 pounds all-in) and taking one of the adventure bikes or ATV's to Colorado for some fun above Crested Butte, or to trailheads around Lake City - but not real truck stuff.

NKYTA | 2016年4月17日

We clearly disagree on what "nonstarter" meanes then. @PD.

"Like never", like, ever.

Compelling? Shading you are.

brian | 2016年4月18日

Glad to hear about a truck - I have been saying it to my friends for years. An electric pickup is so far superior than any of the monster diesel pickups for hauling a load, like a big boat. All that torque, its a truck owners dream. Stack 2 battery packs below the bed, giving twice the range, no fuel tanks give either greater clearance or a deep bed. This is the killer app for the heartland.

jordanrichard | 2016年4月19日

brain, of course the big question is, for the purposes of putting a boat in the water, can the drive unit be submerged......? I am sure they will give that some thought when they do design the truck.