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Gasoline cars banned in U.S. what year?

Gasoline cars banned in U.S. what year?

Norway plans to ban ICE and diesel by 2025.

Germany is looking at 2030.

Sweden and other countries, such as France, see the need and they will also ban ICE.

When for United States? Will we wait until coastal cities are underwater?

trx430ex | 2017年2月20日

It's a trick question
The cans won't be banned, they will just get smaller and smaller and smaller,,,as batteries get more dense more dense more dense. It's a time/public/actceptabilitty/personal most efficient thing.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月20日

Cars will get smaller in the US? Not with this administration.

vperl | 2017年2月20日

Dooms day post, gotta love it .

Where is Chicken Little when you need him, probably crossing the road .

SO | 2017年2月21日
SO | 2017年2月21日

Why is it that many republicans can somehow see Jesus in a potato chip but yet cannot see the evidence of sea level rise with blatant measurements?

jordanrichard | 2017年2月21日

KP in NPT, really? The Trump nor any administration has anything to do with what people want to buy. The recent trend of people ditching cars for gas guzzling trucks and SUVs started damn near the instant the price of oil/gas dropped, well over a year ago. It's the price of gas that decides what type of vehicles people buy.

So let's go down the road you started with your inference about Trump's administration. Let's say through his policies or flat out elimination of the EPA, that GM is allowed to produce cars that get 10 MPG. Once the price of oil/gas jumps up, no one will buy them.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月21日

My understanding of the regulations that have been in place is that automakers were compelled to build cars that allowed them to meet overall MPG regulations. If that regulation is removed, as it appears likely, automakers will not be compelled to build fuel efficient cars - and the only thing that will stop them is a change to gas price (so that, like you say, people will no longer buy them.) Under the current administration, with his appointments throughout from the fossil fuel industry, policies (TPP, soon to be rescinded EPA regs, etc) I don't see gas prices rising to the point that people stop buying gas guzzlers in the near term. (Which is why I said during this administration.) He seems very much committed to the oil industry.

Trucks and SUVs are still massively popular in the US and are what brings companies like GM significant profit. So I don't see car sizes shrinking without regulation to require it. People still want big, gas guzzling cars. Because gas prices are cheap. While I agree with you that gas prices is what makes people switch, (I was one of those people, back in '07) I just do not agree that gas price increases will happen under the current administration. Unless something else happens to raise prices - like another gulf war.

So to answer the OP, I think that for now, market forces - not regulation - is going to be what makes ICE obsolete in the US. The US Government is no where near banning ICE - never mind who is president or what regulations are eliminated.

massimob30 | 2017年2月21日

@SO_S90D - I am not a Republican, but it may have to do with most of the apocalyptic predictions failed to come true. Not only did they not come true, they didn't even come close to coming true.

Take a look at this video made in 2008, about what would happen by 2015 if we didn't do something about climate change. It was predicted that milk would cost $13 a carton, gas would be $9/gallon, and NYC would be underwater.

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2015/06/12/flashback-abc...

stockbandit91 | 2017年2月21日

The answer is never in our lifetimes, but they will become obsolete in our lifetime due to technological advances. A ban is a regressive penalty on the poor who cannot afford to update and are forced to stay with old tech and therefore should not be a mandatory switch.

Remnant | 2017年2月21日

@flight505 (OP, February 20, 2017)

<< Gasoline cars banned in U.S. what year? >>

Manipulating consumers' choice makes a mockery out of individual rights and is arrogant, stupid, ineffectual, unfair, and mean.

We should not want a ban of anything based on free choice. Market forces are the way to address and resolve all imbalances of needs, wants, an incomes.

nadurse | 2017年2月21日

There will never be a law that says gasoline cars are "banned". Eventually they will become obsolete and just regulated to niche market and collector car status, which is ok. At that point the impact of the few remaining gasoline cars on the road will have a negligible impact to climate change.

SO | 2017年2月21日

Massimo - I do agree that many predictions have failed to come true. There is hysteria all around. However, the evidence keeps building towards a particular outcome. And the outcome is happening. I don't expect a massive flood to happen in our lifetime. It will be a slow change. But if people have grandkids, the most prudent thing to do is to plan accordingly for their future. Why wait until the problem is so much worse and more expensive to correct? Besides, sea level rise is only one issue. Lower pollution is another benefit.

carlk | 2017年2月21日

The first step could be banning gasoline cars in cities. People there are not as much relied on cars but they will suffer the same consequences whether they drive one or not. There would be less resistance from people who do drive a car when cost of EV is brought in line with ICE cars. That day may not be too far away from now.

@nadurse Many cities in the world are already doing this.

TeslaTap.com | 2017年2月21日

I look at it differently. By 2025, I expect new ICE cars will be seen as total junk in comparison with EVs. ICE vehicles will be expensive to buy, expensive to maintain, offer poor performance, and expensive to fuel relative to EVs in 2025 (even more so than today). The market will completely switch to where ICE are the rare vehicles to buy - perhaps bought as a status symbol to say you just don't care, prove your stupidity or to show you can afford to be foolishly wasteful.

sp_tesla | 2017年2月21日

"TeslaTap.com | February 21, 2017
By 2025"

Hopefully Lexus, Mercedes, Audi, BMW will offer ICE less flagship cars much sooner than 2025.

El Mirio | 2017年2月21日

Once critical mass of consumers go thru the 5 phases of denial, conclude that ICE may face a rapid depreciation in the future, transition could avalanche and send ICE prices of a cliff.

massimob30 | 2017年2月21日

I see EV's being in full swing within a decade, if not sooner. People will just see ICE cars like a VHS player compared to something like streaming Netflix, there is just no comparison. Tesla has completely changed the game on how people buy a vehicle, not just with the vehicle itself, but the process of buying it. No more haggling with pushy car sales people, being able to customize your purchase, and the constant OTA updates. ICE will seem like a relic too antiquated to maintain.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月21日

I do agree there will start to be a huge shift. But again, in the US it will be because of market forces not because of regulation.

Elon's mission seems to be coming to fruition (Dr. Evil voice) - The model S and now model 3 along with the VW scandal has spurred automakers to pledge real investment in the EV arena. That is good and I hope they follow through. Remember EVs are still a tiny sliver of the new car market in the US.

There is a huge segment of the US market that wants trucks, SUVs and minivans - and no one has gone there yet with EVs. Maybe battery tech isn't there yet to get the needed range. But it will happen. It's just a matter of when.

Haggy | 2017年2月21日

I don't see a ban, but limits on new sales. ICE cars will be far less practical with EVs available, but when demand drops for gasoline, it will go under a dollar a gallon and a cheap ICE will be economical. Depending on politics, there might be stricter environmental regulations. Old cars will die out.

Even at $2/gallon it could cost people an extra $10k over a decade and that will factor into the selling price. However, car loans tend to be five years or less. It will have to be favorable to consumers for their monthly car payment for an EV, plus electricity costs for a car, to be lower than payments and gasoline for an ICE. At current gasoline prices, something like a Model 3 will give people more car for their money than a comparable ICE when fuel is factored in.

Half of all EVs in the US are still sold in California, and where I live, gas is about $2.70/gallon. Anything that competes with the Model S will run on premium, so even there a base Model S is competitive with much more expensive cars. Nationwide is another story. Supply and demand will always be a factor and if an EV is equally as compelling as an ICE in the same price range, it won't be a matter of making the money back over time but of getting an immediate monthly drop in costs.

radami2 | 2017年2月21日

If anything, gas stations disappear gradually and gas gets more expensive as they are more and more rare. People drive their ice less and less because of the inconvenience and then range anxiety in their ice becomes an issue. This turn in the tables obviates the need to ban ice cars. And the state will whither away.

David N | 2017年2月21日

They will never be banned. If BEV's take off like we all think they will, eventually no one will want an ICE. The market will determine the demise of ICE.
Getting everyone to test drive a quality Electric car will take time.

KP in NPT | 2017年2月22日

As expected - automakers have already submitted a letter to their pal Scott Pruitt to "relax" fuel efficiency standards.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/automakers-asked-science-denying-head-of-...

Mike83 | 2017年2月22日

The more highly civilized countries with high standards of living are in the process of eliminating gas vehicles; Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, etc. Also Japan, home of the Leaf. The more literate countries will move ahead, not so much the anti-science countries.

Remnant | 2017年2月22日

@Mike83 (February 22, 2017)

<< The more highly civilized countries with high standards of living are in the process of eliminating gas vehicles; ... >>

In the meantime, the "highly civilized countries" have been committing ethno-suicide, laying the foundations of the Islamization and terrorism now haunting and undermining them from within.

The elimination of ICE vehicles by decree will undermine them economically, due to the political stupidity of the social engineers who have undermined them ethnically.

Not an example to emulate, IMHO.

finman100 | 2017年2月22日

f%$k u. way to make s#$t up. God this is tiring. you have got to be kidding. go back to your hole, the rest of us know better. and shut off the Fox.

Dramsey | 2017年2月22日

"The more highly civilized countries with high standards of living are in the process of eliminating gas vehicles; Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, etc. Also Japan, home of the Leaf. The more literate countries will move ahead, not so much the anti-science countries."

It's not so much that they're "more highly civilized"-- whatever that means-- but that they're _smaller_. The largest city in Norway, for example, is Oslo, with a population of less than 700,000. Tokyo in Japan is huge, but many Japanese live in apartments and houses we in America would consider unlivably small: the average apartment size in Tokyo is less than 700 square feet...so they can pack a LOT of people into smaller spaces.

Smaller cities and smaller living spaces == less need for cars. These solutions aren't currently workable for the sprawling American metropolitan centers, where it's not unusual for people's round trip to work to exceed the range limits of cars like the Leaf.

Tesla-David | 2017年2月22日

This utube discussion by Tony Seba makes it clear we are headed for an EV centric world by 2030, much like the disruption where the ICE replaced the horse, as exemplified early in his talk.
http://tonyseba.com/portfolio-item/clean-disruption-of-energy-transporta...

RedShift | 2017年2月22日

No need for a ban. EV is a paradigm shifting change. Give it time.

massimob30 | 2017年2月22日

RedShift nailed it, people more and more will see this is not just feasible, but better than using fossil fuels. Improving tech will make this easier, look how quickly they are improving things with batteries and charging.

bigd | 2017年2月22日

RedShift Something is awry in the cosmos I keep agreeing with you. "Give it time." +42

Remnant, I wonder what will become of these "highly civilized countries" economies when they are paying their "fair share" for military protection. That may "undermine them economically" Far grater than "The elimination of ICE vehicles by decree".

RedShift | 2017年2月22日

@bigd

That's because I am not your typical liberal. I tend to stick to a center-left line. In fact I hate labels, but in this hyper polarized state of the union, I find myself identifying more and more with the liberals.

flight505 | 2017年2月22日

@Remnant
I would agree with you except we live on one planet where burning fossil fuels is damaging my space and everybody's space.

bp | 2017年2月23日

For passenger vehicles, it may be more likely we'll see a mandate for all new vehicles to have FSD before a non-ICE mandate.

Since commercial vehicles have more utilization and have a larger impact because of their size, a non-ICE mandate could be imposed first on commercial vehicles.

The transition from ICE to EV may be similar to what happened to transitions like LPs to tape to CDs to digital download or VCRs to DVDs to DVRs to streaming - when the price and functionality of non-ICEs becomes competitive with ICEs, the market will shift. Why would anyone want to keep buying complex technology with higher fuel and maintenance costs?

Tesla's on the right path with the Gigafactories, Model 3, and likely plans to bring other passenger and commercial vehicles to the market, and continue driving down the prices to make them competitive to ICEs. If Tesla is able to get the prices down enough, government mandates shouldn't be needed - and actually could take longer than the market moving away from ICEs.

Mike83 | 2017年2月23日

bp Some good points.
Also trucking is the most dangerous profession next to logging where 1 o 2 deaths occur per 100. AP on trucks and eventually complete auto driving will save lives and expense. The Tesla semi should be a winner in this category.

Remnant | 2017年2月23日

@bp (February 23, 2017)

<< For passenger vehicles, it may be more likely we'll see a mandate for all new vehicles to have FSD before a non-ICE mandate. >>

Hey, @Bisexual Promotion, how can a vehicle have Female Sexual Dysfunction?

Haggy | 2017年2月23日

Gas stations will go down if demand goes down because there will still be enough of them to handle that demand. However the potential supply of gasoline will high, so price will have to drop. Increasing demand means more difficult or politically contentious ways of getting gasoline. Off shore platforms and fracking would be less needed with a fraction of the current demand. OPEC nations could see their demand dry up unless they drop prices drastically. They might go from being oil multi-millionaires to needing the revenue to pay the rent, but they aren't going out of business.

flight505 | 2017年2月23日

Haggy-

What about the Rockefeller effect, now the Koch Brothers effect? Big oil has no conscious and is a corporation, which Supreme Court has given the same rights as a person. There are many hurdles to jump to get to a ban on new ICE cars. EV's will have to be cheaper and superior to kill the smoking, choking automobile here.

bp | 2017年2月24日

If hydrogen fuel cells capture much market share, gas stations will turn into hydrogen stations, though with a smaller market share than ICEs currently have, fewer hydrogen stations will be need.

Since most EVs can refuel at "home", long range EVs need fewer fueling stations, and fast charging could also become part of the new market for gas stations.

We'll still have gas ICEs for a long time - so it's unlikely gas stations will disappear as quickly as Blockbuster.

Now, if we can only get Tesla to start installing superchargers at BUC-EEs in Texas...

Silver2K | 2017年2月24日

Mike83 | February 22, 2017
The more highly civilized countries with high standards of living are in the process of eliminating gas vehicles; Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, etc. Also Japan, home of the Leaf. The more literate countries will move ahead, not so much the anti-science countries.

-------------------------------------------------------------

the countries you mentioned don't even add up (in total) to the US population and their GDP doesn't even add up to 1/3 of US. The change is a lot different when you have to manage the largest economy in the world with 320 million people that would be effected by it.

Population and GDP

Sweden - 9.8 million - GDP: $492.62 billion USD (2015)
Netherlands - 16.94 million - GDP: $750.28 billion USD (2015
Norway - 5.2 million - GDP: $388.31 billion USD (2015)
Switzerland - 8 million - GDP: $670.79 billion USD (2015)
Japan - 127 million - GDP: $4.38 trillion USD (2015)
United states - 324 million - GDP: $18.04 trillion USD (2015)

Mike83 | 2017年2月24日

Not sure what your point is but the EU has 500 million people and this is one link to their climate action.

https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/climate-action_en

In addition US states and cities are taking action. You can add India, China, Saudi Arabia, etc. and it does add up.
The only places not taking action to address the problem of Climate Disruption are really not significant; they are noisy though.

DTsea | 2017年2月24日

Based on James T Kirk's mustang in the movie, looks like not by the 23rd century!

SamO | 2017年2月24日

A few antiques from the last dying gasp of gas . . . The mustang might be the last.

TeslaTap.com | 2017年2月24日

Going at it a different way - just require all vehicles to have 100% of the emissions the produce filtered through the cabin. Those that want to stay with ICE would be eliminated fairly quickly. Even easy to retrofit the existing ICE fleet - just a $10 hose!

Mike83 | 2017年2月24日

That would certainly decrease GW gases.

lilbean | 2017年2月24日

Not everyone shares our love for EVs. Here in LA, a lot of people still love their gas-guzzling, polluting noise-making cars.

SamO | 2017年2月24日

Only because they don't have any choices for excellent electric vehicles other than Tesla

flight505 | 2017年2月24日

When the price of an EV is equal to or less than the price of an ICE vehicle, the last obstacle to EV domination is charging time. Samsung's new 21700 is supposed to charge to 80% (310 miles) in 20 minutes. Tesla's new 2170 battery (essential the same size as the 2170 Tesla/Panasonic) should at least match this speed.

The EV will get 5-7 times fuel efficiency of the ICE with no oil to change, no radiator with anti-freeze, no transmission, and so on.

Advantage: EV