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Any Thoughts on Place in Line

Any Thoughts on Place in Line

I know I placed my pre order when it went live for On-line registration since I was at work and not able to visit dealer that day.
Is there any way to identify where in line I am to get a better idea of my timeline for availability.
I know the Model 3 page is still listing Mid 2017 for starting production.
New Reservations for Model 3 is expected Late 2018 for new Reservations per the Model 3 Reservation page.
At the Start of the Unveiling Event the pre orders was over 115,000 total already.
I am somewhere in that 115,000 since I had already completed the Pre-Order online submission.

My best guess is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of Early 2018 if the production starts as expected. Any sooner and I will be pleasantly surprised, but with West Cost, Employees, and Prior Tesla Owners getting priority, I am sure early 2018 should be right about right since I live closer to the East Coast.

Shadowmist | 2017年2月27日

The honest answer is no one really knows. For example I pre-ordered mine 4/2/2016 so a couple days after you, however I live in San Diego, CA so idk if that means I'm gonna get such a high priority that i'll get it before you or the priority i'll be receiving is small. + I'm a non-owner.

Trust me a ton of people here wish more information was available in regards to your question but there just isn't at this time.

Frank99 | 2017年2月27日

Well, I'd figure that about 7% of all reservations are for existing owners, so somewhere between 26,000 and 40,000 people are ahead of you. Roughly 13,000 Tesla employees reserved one, so they're in front of you too. Tesla's sales in 2016 were about (IIRC) 60% US, so assume about 40% of the non-employee reservations are behind you (assuming that Tesla rolls out to the US before the rest-of-world). Then you have to prognosticate about both the date that Model 3 production begins, and how fast it ramps. People have estimated anywhere from 30,000 to 100,000 Model 3's built this year.

You'll probably have better luck guessing a date by throwing a dart at a dartboard while blindfolded.

Brian Vicars | 2017年3月1日

@Frank99. I ordered my Model X on July 23rd. 2013 and received it on June 25th. 2016. I friend of mine ordered on March 13th. 2016 and received their vehicle 2 week after I did.
So.. maybe put the dartboard in motion as well as using a blindfold.

dd.micsol | 2017年3月1日

I get it when I get it. Get it?!

Frank99 | 2017年3月1日

Got it.

SamO | 2017年3月1日

Good.

I have thoughts on your place in line.

It's a good place. One of the best places. A huge place.

EaglesPDX | 2017年3月1日

Just some guesses, about two hours after my online order went in Musk announced that they had 178,000 orders so I'm guessing I'm somewhere in the first 200,000, mid 2018 if Tesla can keep to its most amibtious production schedule.

ekbuzc | 2017年3月1日

There's a calculator that was created that you can find on teslamotorsclub, but I can't post the link here. I'm a non-owner and I reserved around noon in MN on 3/31 and it puts me out in ~Feb 2018

It's still just anyone's guess on if an owner in CA could order today and be in front of a 3/31 10 AM reservation in NY.

EaglesPDX | 2017年3月1日

My order was confirmed 2016/4/1 at 11:56PM for the 200,000 +/- estimated spot.

Galiano | 2017年3月1日

Will old age move me up in the line ? I'm 73 years old and the model three will certainly be my last car. I hope I'm around long enough.

SamO | 2017年3月1日

@Galiano,

Unless you are ill, not necessarily. Actuarily, you can expect to live 12-15 more years. Self Driving capabilities and Tesla Network may allow you to access a variety of vehicles for the rest of your life, even if you aren't driving.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Geoffreykamen | 2017年3月1日

Can always buy up more tesla stock while waiting like I did!

4fishtankz | 2017年3月1日

Anybody else get real excited seeing an email from Tesla in their inbox only to get the let down it's another ad for a Model S? LOL. Even went to a brunch to test drive an S. Still wanting my 3!

Haggy | 2017年3月1日

You know where your place is in line. It's with the people who ordered the first day, right around the time ordering opened up online. That's about as accurate as you can get, and nothing else will give you a clue when you will get your car.

Once cars hit production, somebody will start a thread. Then people will ask where the person lives, what options she ordered, whether he was an owner, whether he waited in line, or what date it was ordered online. Then people will try to use all that information to make wild guesses that will be far more meaningful than any that people are making now, but not anything you'd want to set your clock by.

You know it won't happen before production starts, and until the first deliveries it's too early to guess what your place in line is or what difference it makes.

francisjhurley | 2017年3月2日

Just reserved mine today, I was about to last March but I often move overseas for work. I've decided to stay put. hoping I get mine in 2018 but I am pretty sure I'd be looking at end of 2019?? What would you all say??

Haggy | 2017年3月7日

Looking down the train track won't make the train come any faster.

Badbot | 2017年3月7日

how about lying on it

dsvick | 2017年3月7日

I suppose next you're going to tell us that repeatedly hitting the call button doesn't make the elevator come any faster either ....

Sandman5150 | 2017年3月7日

I ordered on 06/31/16, 10:10 am, I was 7th in line in San Diego. I'm thinking X-Mas time this year, YAY!!!!!

dsvick | 2017年3月8日

@Sandman - Is that a typo? 06/31/16 would be 3 months after the initial reveal, I don't know why there would have been line that day. And, if you really did reserve that late, you're probably looking at Q1 of 2018, even though you're in San Diego, unless you're also a current owner or an employee.

Haggy | 2017年3月8日

"I suppose next you're going to tell us that repeatedly hitting the call button doesn't make the elevator come any faster either ..."

Not only that, it will annoy the elevator operator.

eandmjep | 2017年3月9日

Announced 115,000 towards the end of the reveal, Completed my online order by the time the live feed ended 10 min later. Accounting for some canceled reservations, well......maybe...... I Have no Idea ;) Q1 2018

SoFlaModel3 | 2017年3月9日

Like everyone, we simply have no clue where we actually stand in the queue.

I reserved early in Florida pre-reveal on 3/31/16.

Assuming all goes to plan, it must be safe to assume I'm driving a Tesla within one year and qualifying for a $7,500 tax credit!

Carl Thompson | 2017年3月9日

SoFlaModel3:
"Assuming all goes to plan, it must be safe to assume I'm driving a Tesla within one year and qualifying for a $7,500 tax credit!"

If all goes to plan, which is a very big IF. But if (volume production of) the 3 is delayed a few months, and Tesla decides not to suspend sales of the S and X in the U.S. in the meantime, You could possibly only get $3,750.

Carl

Red Sage ca us | 2017年3月9日

"We will do the obvious thing." -- Elon Musk

SoFlaModel3 | 2017年3月9日

@Carl, that's why I said if all goes to plan. If it doesn't, I get my car later and potentially less credit.

It's all speculation and guess work until we hit the design studio and get a delivery estimate.