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Big Oil and Ice dead in 8 years

Big Oil and Ice dead in 8 years

http://www.impactlab.net/2017/05/18/all-fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish...

Thought this might interest those looking into the future and not just the next quarter.

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

Another know it all. GF 1+2+3+...+100

EaglesPDX | 2017年5月18日

I wouldn't call Mr. Seba a "know it all", he's just having some fun at the expense of people such as yourself.

EaglesPDX | 2017年5月18日

You might want to delete the topic here and repost it to the General Forum as it is not specific to T3's.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

That is a very well put together summary of Tony Seba's points. I read through most, but not all of it.

Problem is...? The Naysayers will be louder and more respected somehow... They will claim there are phantom 'holes' in Professor Seba's arguments... But will never be able to specify what they are or why they won't come true. They will do as they have done for much of the past 25 years when it comes to Climate Change and insist that there is no problem and that no one should listen to 'alarmists' because 'they don't know what they are talking about' or 'there are still points to debate'.

But there aren't. Everything that is annotated is completely supported by the evidence before us. All of it will happen. Perhaps not in that precise order, or that level of magnitude, but it will all happen anyway.

And, rather than advising that businesses and governments prepare for the inevitable future...? Naysayers will tell everyone to 'wait and see'. And those Naysayers will never, ever admit that what was predicted has come true, or that they were wrong. Their goal is to maintain status quo and delay change for as long as possible, even if it leads to ultimate disaster.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

Trolls don't get to dictate forum rules.

Tony Seba's report is very interesting. I read it last week. he's an expert on technology disruption - but may be a bit optimistic. that said, I think it will happen - at least in terms of transitioning to BEVs, at some point. Even if he's only half right about the timeline, it's going to be an interesting future.

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

I called you EAgles the know it all and not Dr. Seba. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

SamO | 2017年5月18日

I wrote Seba's same thesis 4 years ago. Welcome to the party. Shoulda bought TSLA.

Grin.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

So much ignorance. I guess trolls gonna troll.

akgolf | 2017年5月18日

Interesting article, thanks for posting Mike.

Chunky Jr. | 2017年5月18日

Maybe 15-20 years. But 8? No way. There are way too many people who still like the sound of a muscle car, do a lot of traveling, or otherwise not interested in an EV. EV technology still has a ways to go. But it is on the right track.

EaglesPDX | 2017年5月18日

@Chunky Jr. "Maybe 15-20 years. But 8? No way."

You are right but the real problem is we need EV's to be 100% of all cars and light trucks by 2050 to get an 80% reduction in green house gases from 2000 levels by 2050, the basic science timeline of per IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch

And we are not on that path.

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

THE BIG GREEN BANG is an article worth reading on the Financial Times. You will need a subscription. Some fossil fuel companies are already shifting to GREEN energy.

Sparky | 2017年5月18日

An interesting article, but incorrect. Specialized ICE vehicles will be around for quite some time (military, industrial off-road, etc.) and all of these will continue to require fuel infrastructure. Also the plastics industry requires oil producers. The supply-demand curve will continue to rise for oil production, however, which will keep petroleum cheap and competitive (with the exception of punitive taxation) for the foreseeable future.

The rate of change from ICE to sustainable electric will depend as much on legislation as it will on raw economic forces. I would wager that in 8 years BEV's will make up no more than 50% of new car sales but even that is a quantum paradigm shift for the better.

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

The Links I posted address your sketicism

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

Attempting to bring back coal and drilling will be like trying to bring back buggy whip jobs.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

Poor Pigeon. His benefactors must be shitting themselves.

EaglesPDX | 2017年5月18日

@Mike83 "The Links I posted address your sketicism"

But they don't address the reality that such a conversion in 10 years times is simply not possible.

topher | 2017年5月18日

"too many people who still like the sound of a muscle car"

Muscle Car V8 #1 / No Copyright Sound Effect - YouTube

and 2.1 Million other hits on Google.

Thank you kindly.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

In 10 years, every automaker will have converted to BEV. Ford just announced a PHEV truck and hinted a BEV version could also come. Tesla is about to announce their truck. That will arguably set off a BEV pickup race as the Model 3 is apparently doing with sedans. Battery technology is improving daily. Battery costs are falling and will have parity with ICE by the time these trucks come to market - IF they don't already. So yes, 10 years is entirely realistic.

Given the average lifespan of a car is 10 years before it's traded in, and given the fact that the conversion to BEV will set off a vicious cycle of depressed used car values, which will make people think twice before buying a new car, I find it very easy to believe in 13 years, 95% of the cars sold will be BEV.

Where I am unsure in this report is where autonomy comes in - because it depends on federal approval, and the spread of autonomy out of cities to suburbs and then rural areas. I believe it will happen, but I think the timeline might be optimistic. But I'd love to be wrong.

It kind of helps to read the entire report before making yourself look like an idiot.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

Sparky: The article basically distills the findings of Professor Tony Seba. You can see his videos online at YouTube, and recently someone posted a link to his full report in PDF format. Keep in mind it is very long, but good reading through and through.

Most of us here understand about 'specialized ICE vehicles' and look forward to the point in time where they are relegated to appearances in parades, weekend track days, and offroad events only. You know, just like horses. And, just as the military moved away from horses to mechanized infantry, they will similarly move away from ICE to fully electric much sooner than most will admit. Because electricity is simply BETTER at moving heavy equipment than is diesel fuel.

If you read through the article again, it does not overlook the importance of petroleum to the plastics industry.

The products of the petroleum industry were originally used primarily for lubrication. That was necessary for the machinery used in steam engines and in textile factories. They later found some use in lighting as well. Then electricity came along. Various fossil fuels have been used for heating too. But the two breakthrough industries, each completely unforeseen for petrochemical firms, were automobiles and plastics. Oil companies were extremely profitable, making their owners ridiculously rich, well before Ford Motor Co was founded (Standard Oil, 1870) in 1903. So, they will still be extremely well off, even when they are only supplying fuel for old cars and trucks (about 2,500,000,000 of them worldwide), and lubrication products for various industries, and plastics. Many of them have rebranded themselves as 'energy' companies as much as two decades ago.

Look closer at what Tony Seba is saying. There is a certain level of daily oil consumption that is driven by ICE, and will be eliminated at a faster rate than it previously grew, with each percentage of the market that switches to electric vehicles alone. Below a certain point, those oil extraction methods that are barely profitable now will become absolutely non-viable. Black gold will be no more than black sludge again. Worthless to those who wanted to leverage future sales against debt. It won't be worth the effort once demand drops precipitously.

The only legislative changes that will prevent what is predicted here are the sort of protectionist maneuvers that have been done to support the monopoly on sales of new cars held by 'independent franchised dealerships' in various States in the U.S. Crony capitalism. Regulatory commissions and insurance agencies will be in favor of what they will perceive as 'safety systems' in the form of autonomous vehicles. They have known for decades that the weak point of risk was the human driver. Insurance companies will be 'WINNING' all the way to the bank once full autonomy can prove itself less likely to have an accident by a 10:1 ratio than a human being. That's a lot fewer policies to pay up on, because computers don't use drugs, don't get angry or sad or depressed, don't get distracted wrangling children or checking their tweets, won't have a pressing need to do their toenails or brush their teeth or eat their breakfast or apply makeup on the freeway while driving to work in traffic, and won't be stupid enough to drive during inclement weather conditions. This WILL happen. It's just a matter of WHEN. I'm with Tony Seba, except I think it may happen even SOONer thanks to Tesla Motors.

Garyeop | 2017年5月18日

Too quick? I wonder how many music cds were written off by Wal-Mart when no one could move to digital music that fast. I do feel EVs will hit like crashing waves. Soon.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

KP in NPT: +21! Superb. Thanks for covering the part I was about to post, because I realized I skipped it! My final paragraph above covers your concerns about how/when/why autonomy would come about.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

+21 to you Red for the other points - the oil industry - the oil collapse will also set off a vicious cycle. Oil companies already know this is going to happen - though they put it another decade or so beyond what other reports (besides Seba's, but that aren't from incumbents) say. Really, the report addresses just about every point a naysayer or TROLL could come up with.

Iwantmy3 | 2017年5月18日

I've got to agree with Sparky on this one. 80% of all new ICE cars being sold today will still be on the roads in 20 years. Even if the bottom drops out of the second hand market, the low prices will just attract people who couldn't otherwise afford a car.

As EV sales increase, the oversupply of oil in the market will drive down gas prices and make driving cheap used cars even more affordable. This could only be addressed by adding punitive taxes to petroleum products. The problem with this will be that these taxes will be specifically targeting those in the lower economic classes who are using the ICE cars as cheap transportation. Good environmental policy vs. terrible socio-economic policy.

Gas powered cars will have a significant presence for another 20 years. The best we can hope for is that ICE sales as a percentage of new sales drops drastically over the next ten years.

As an aside; the need for increased power production to meet EV needs is being overstated. It takes ~1KWH of electricity to produce 1 liter of gas. For an average car that gets 10Km (6miles) per liter, it requires 10 liters to go 60 miles. In an EV, it takes ~18-20 KWH. That implies that the power required for EVs is approximately equal to the amount of electricity no longer needed in gasoline production x2. This amount of power added over 20 years is a minor concern.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

They won't be on the roads in 20 years because people won't buy them because it will be cheaper to use Transportation as a Service. (TaaS) Especially for poorer people. No maintenance (older cars need more $ sunk into them, parts will become an issue, repair shops will become an issue,) no gas, no insurance, no depreciation.

SamO | 2017年5月18日

Tesla leads in:

Autonomy
Electrification
Sustainable Energy Generation
Backup Energy Storage
Grid Services
Swap
Charging Infrastructure
Semi/Cargo

And participates tangentially in:

Hyperloops
Construction/Boring
Rockets
Computer-Human Interface

Trillions of dollars in the future company(ies) with potential for much more. Tesla may be the most valuable company in the history of the world.

"Dutch East India Company made history as the world’s first IPO. Known as VOC in the Netherlands, the company was one of the most successful ventures in the last several hundred years. When adjusted for inflation, its highest market capitalization would be worth over $7 TRILLION today (i.e. ten times the size of Apple)."

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/08/22/a-history-of-ridiculou...

tstolz | 2017年5月18日

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/591a2e...

Here is a link to the full report - Key points include;

- World vehicle fleet declines to 1/6 current size due to higher utilization rates and shift to TaaS
- Cost to operate an already paid for ICE is more than cost to subscribe to TaaS by 2021 ish - people abandon ICE
- Dealers are gone by 2022
- Oil volumes decline by 30% due to TaaS .
- People are able to breath clean air in cities by 2023

Iwantmy3 | 2017年5月18日

tstolz,
"World vehicle fleet declines to 1/6 current size due to higher utilization rates and shift to TaaS"
This is the part I simply don't believe. People do not want to share transportation. If they can afford their own vehicle, they will own their own vehicle. That is the basis of North American Society for the last 70 - 100 years. Self-driving cars will not change that.

"Cost to operate an already paid for ICE is more than cost to subscribe to TaaS by 2021 ish - people abandon ICE"
See above. Public transportation is already far cheaper than owing a car in major cities yet everyone still aspires to own their own car.

"Dealers are gone by 2022"
Fewer dealers maybe, but I don't see the other manufacturers moving away from the dealership model any time soon. In any case, that is a side issue on the EV/ICE debate

- Oil volumes decline by 30% due to TaaS .
Personal transportation only accounts for 25% of of oil consumption as it is. This will dwindle towards 5% over the next 20 years, not 8.

- People are able to breath clean air in cities by 2023
Only if we stop burning coal.

This whole paper is based on TaaS killing the auto industry. I don't see it.

EVs will win out because they have the potential to be better cars. The model 3 is better and cheaper (total life cycle) than anything close to its class. When people see the benefits to them, they will move to EVs. However, current the stock of cars on the road will be driven till they drop.

Haggy | 2017年5月18日

It seems wildly optimistic even for the US alone. Unless used car sales get banned, that simply won't happen.

There's also the rest of the world to deal with. Does he think that this will fly in Cambodia? There's a big world out there and there's a matter of infrastructure. I remember less than a few decades ago seeing people selling petrol by the side of the road out of plastic bottles. Gas stations might be more prevalent now, but they are also easier to put in, as long as gasoline can be trucked in. Installing sufficient power throughout the world just won't happen so fast.

tstolz | 2017年5月18日

IwantmyM3 - I hear you ...

1. I will keep 2 of my 3 cars and my mom will drop hers by 2021. That is 50% decline for us and we live in a rural region who's demographic is predicted to be the slowest to adopt this model. City dwellers its a no-brainer.

2. Thats the think, you still have access to a car ... in fact you have access to sports cars, trucks, vans, ... anything for a fraction of the cost ... why on earth would I keep my current low-use truck when I can call one up at 10X the cost?

3. Fleet operators will be the buyers ... and dealers require ICE repairs to stay afloat. Sorry .. they are done.

4. The math isn't mine but once you count the impact of all transportation including trucking which is also affected it seems reasonable to me.

5. Two things ... I'm talking about in the cities, but no matter what ... coal is done ... even here in Alberta. No one will provide capital to coal anymore. We see power companies here in fact are getting out even sooner than mandated by government. We will have 0 coal by 2030 in Alberta.

6. What I love about this paper is it makes you think about things in a fresh way. I do happen to think Tony Seba is a little aggressive in his timelines, but since I can completely relate to how I would use TaaS and how my friends would adopt it ... I can certainly see 50% just in my own circle of people.

7. I'm not certain about that. You may keep yours, but my mom is itching to get rid of hers and I would totally drop one of my 3! So ... there you go.

Iwantmy3 | 2017年5月18日

tstolz,
I guess my biggest reservation with Taas is that I just don't see how it gets so cheap. Taking a cab is expensive. Renting a car is expensive. Yet, with automated driving, all of a sudden the costs all disappear? I will believe it when I see it.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

Iwantmy3: The time for 'punitive taxes' on gasoline in the United States have passed. It's over with in that regard. For precisely the reason you state. Politicians will argue that they shouldn't place a 'burden' on the 'working class' or levy unwarranted fees on 'the poor'. You know, just as they always have in regard to the notion of 'Carbon Taxes'. That just ain't gonna happen.

The oversupply of petroleum will not make prices go down in the slightest at the pump. It is just like any other business that is relegated by 'Supply & Demand'. Vendors have the supply and will demand whatever they want to be paid for it. The less gasoline they are able to sell, the more they will charge for it. There aren't going to be any bargains on petrol.

All executives care about is the quarterly bottom line. If they have to raise the price on fewer gallons sold of gasoline in order to get to the quarterly goal of profit growth that is precisely what they will do. A few months of paying "Eight Bucks a Gallon! Please PAY before you PUMP!" and people will be HAPPY to buy 'cheap' gasoline at 'only' five bucks per gallon. Because, generally speaking, Americans are pretty much universally afraid of mathematics and science and have no sense of history. Meanwhile, HEMI/HELLCAT/DEMON drivers will be proud to pay SIX BUCKS A GALLON for Premium 93 Octane fuel while exercising their inalienable right to conspicuously consume.

Already, youngsters have no particular interest in driving. They are perfectly fine with UBER & LYFT. If you have a phone and a bank account Daddy pays for? Just hitch a ride. Parents are happy that it isn't the kids out driving themselves while drunk or out joyriding. Kids don't care, won't care -- until you show them a Tesla. Unless you purposely infect them with the will to ICE at an early age with motorbikes and ATVs and snowmobiles and jet skis. And ten years from now, the best of those will all be fully electric too. The current and future generations will happily use Transportation as a Service. So will the aging Baby Boomer population. It's a different world, Man.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

iwantmy3 - it becomes cheap because the overhead costs are so much lower. No driver to pay. No gas. almost no maintenance. Insurance will go down because it's safer. Cars will be built for ease of manufacturing, ease of replacing parts. (Seats, etc that would get use.) Cars will go from having a lifetime of 200K miles to 1M miles, further lowering the TOC for BEV. Seba predicts automakers will transition to being fleet operators. They will maintain their own fleets. Cost will be measured by price per mile driven. Those costs are lower with autonomy + BEV than they are with driver + BEV or driver + ICE. Companies that have the lower costs will survive. There will be a race for dominance in markets between Uber, Lyft, Tesla, OEMs and new entrants. That competition will lower prices.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but he puts TOC for an individual ICE at something like $9600 per household. The cost of TaaS he puts at 3600. (I might be slightly off with the numbers - but its close to that.)

That gigantic difference in cost will cause people to abandon their cars.

Iwantmy3 | 2017年5月18日

Red, I have a 17 and 20 year old who are both itching to get a hold of my current car when I get my 3. Maybe they are in the minority, but they both want the freedom that comes from having your own car. I believe I have infected them both with EV desire but practicality dictates that a free ICE beats a non-free EV (especially when you are a student with no money) even if the gas isn't free. They will be driving that (already well used) car for a few more years yet.

My point is that I see people buying EVs instead of ICEs in the years to come. However, I don't see TaaS or the abandonment of the ICE used car market any time soon. The transition will take decades before ICE is gone.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

Iwantmy3: When a base Toyota Corolla starts at $40,000 some day, and a Yaris is 'only' $29,995...? The number of people who want to show off they can 'afford' to waste money on a gasoline burner will have diminished by a bunch.

Sure. Public transportation is cheap. But, in metropolitan cities like Los Angeles, where it was set up purposely to be as inconvenient as possible, especially when travelling on an East-West route, living East of the 710 FWY and working West of the 405 FWY means you MUST own a car. Period. Transportation as a Service would be extremely convenient and available on your schedule all times of day or night to go from door-to-door. No train system or bus line does that, and taxi cabs or livery/limo services will be immensely expensive in comparison.

The bankruptcy proceedings will allow OEMs to dump the 'independent franchised dealerships' for good, if they intend to actually compete. And, if they end up not 'selling' or even 'leasing' their cars, but actually using them as their own autonomous fleets? They again, do not need dealers for that at all. Just an app.

I'm not aware of any major U.S. cities with active coal plants within their borders. If there are any, I would suggest to citizens: Move. Away. Now.

Think of it as an, "I reserve the right to say, 'I told you so!'" exercise. It doesn't matter if you see it coming. Tony Seba's point is that those who are incumbents in the transportation industry are destined to be blindsided, despite his warnings. So, in ten or fifteen years, when executives are tearing out their hair, throwing up their hands, and exclaiming, "Why didn't anyone warn us?" Elon Musk and Tony Seba can be there to say, "Hello. We did. Ages ago."

Current stock is vehicles that have already been sold. A couple of years ago in 2015 there were over 38,000,000 used vehicles sold in the U.S. That was around 21,000,000 more than the number of NEW cars sold the same year. Most used cars are a bit over 10-1/2 years old. Ten years from now, frugal individuals that want to buy a used car will be looking for Tesla Model ☰ if they can get it. Not a Ford Fusion Energi or Prius Prime. Because at a single dime over five bucks a gallon, it doesn't matter if you can manage 50 MPG if you go light on the throttle. And gas will cost way more than that.

Tesla is not exactly in the used car business, that's Autonation (AN), down $8.85, 22.46% in the past three months. Tony Seba's report is not about used cars either. It is about what the future of new car sales and the majority of transportation will look like. It is a prediction that slow moving top performers are often unable to see the extent of disruption that is right before them. And how they are often unable to recover from that disruption to either maintain or regain their market prominence before their extinction.

Fredbob711 | 2017年5月18日

"Public transportation is already far cheaper than owing a car in major cities yet everyone still aspires to own their own car."

While true, it ignores the fact that public transportation is incredibly inconvenient for many people. Take my situation for example...

My commute is 8 miles, and according to Google takes me 14 minutes via shortest route.
Riding my bike to work is 8.6 miles and according to Google would take 45 minutes (30 is probably more realistic.
Walking would take me 2 hours and 38 minutes (I just find that amusing)
Public transit? 2 hours and 2 minutes. Half an hour faster to ultimately move 8 miles from my house to work.

TaaS gives you more (basically infinite) point to point dropoff/pickup options than public transit does, making it so much more convenient that there's really almost no comparison.

bricha55 | 2017年5月18日

I can't believe I'm doing this, but I almost have to agree with Eagles.

While I think we are seeing the rapid change to EVs, cars aren't like phones or computers. My current car is almost 20 years old, and mine is far from the oldest on the road. According to a quick google search, right now in the US the average age of a car on the road is 11.4 years, meaning if somehow tomorrow every single new car was an EV, it would take over a decade before half of the cars on the road were also EV's.

What I think is more likely is that within the next 8 years every major car company will have made huge pushes into the EV market. You can see it happening now with the luxury car market. Almost every luxury car maker has an EV about to hit the market. 8 years from now everyone will have multiple.

Iwantmy3 | 2017年5月18日

"I reserve the right to say, 'I told you so!'"

Absolutely. That you have.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

iwantmy3 - to use your example:

Your boys get your old car. They have the freedom to go as they please.

Meanwhile, BEVs and TaaS are introduced. They still have your old car. TaaS comes to your area - they try it out. They call up their ride with their app. It's cheap. It's convenient. It's easy.

They continue to drive your car. Now your car is getting old and is starting to rack up maintenance costs. All the while, TaaS is expanding, and they find they use it more and more. Now it's time to get rid of your old car. They find they can't get anything for it- the used ICE market has collapsed. They could buy another used ICE since they're so cheap - but that's going to start needing maintenance soon, too. Or they could buy a new car - it it will likely be a BEV with autonomous capability. And maybe they will do that.

But that TaaS is so easy. People are using it more and more. There is a TaaS service in their area that has sweet mobile-office cars with wifi and complimentary bottled water and coffee machines in them. they can work on their commute! Or, it has a flat screen TV with free streaming. They can relax on their commute!

When your sons start to contemplate how much MORE a car will cost them in the long run, when rapid depreciation is factored in, they will either a) lease, which will hasten the vicious circle of collapsed used car values, when all those leases are turned back in and flood the used car market (that's what some say is happening now) or b) decide to save all the up front money and use the much more cheap and convenient (in terms of less responsibility) TaaS.

The report postulates that used ICE cars will lose ALL value eventually - so that you will have to actually PAY to get rid of them. Call someone to haul it away. But that won't happen overnight - it will happen gradually.

Either way, your sons will end up with a BEV next. ;-)

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

bricha - it's not that they're no longer on the road. It's that they're no longer sold new.

They will always be on the road. As collector cars. As long as you can still find gas. ;-)

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

When I was fifteen years old, I desperately attempted to explain to Family members the importance of computers for the future. They all looked at me as if I had grown a second head that was whistling 'Dixie'. A decade later, most of them had jobs where they worked with computers, and many had computers themselves. Five years after that, and they all had computers in their homes. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

The same sort of change in the market is happening with electric vehicles. Having home computers, and PDAs, and iPods, and iPhones, and iPads didn't put every ledger pad company or stationery store out of business. But they sure get a lot less business now, don't they? 15 years from now, there will still be people who are dedicated enthusiasts to ICE vehicles. But just as next year, there will still be dedicated enthusiasts to equines, a full 110 years after General Motors was founded and my Grandfather Will was born...? Those guys talking about pistons and timing belts and fuel pumps and pushrods and live axles with leaf spring suspension will seem every bit as old fashioned. Just as were the old engineers that marveled that no one was teaching students to use a slide rule once logarithmic calculators were available to students.

I vaguely remember learning how to use an abacus way back in kindergarten. I thought they were really cool, and I got pretty good at it, but might need a tutoring session to get it right again. But these days I'd rather learn to play a guitar in a manner just slight better than I do now -- where I can make sounds come out of one that are not entirely unpleasant.

CraigW | 2017年5月18日

There are groups that will adopt TaaS immediately: the elderly and the poor. Then there are the millennials...who are trying to buy a car and a home at the same time -- wonder what they will do???

There are social forces in play that will make TaaS an economic no-brainer. As that comes into play around 2021, the tide will start to really rise. You will simply no be able to sell new ICE cars, period. With that, repair shops and gas prices will rise, just to break even.

As all this starts to happen, the young, the elderly, and the poor will be in the forefront of forcing massive change on the country. The populous states are likely to be the first to allow automated driving and it will only be a matter of a couple of years before the accident statistics, the cost to their own citizens, the demand of their businesses, will drive the rural states into the future. This will happen fast because there will be no profit available for those who don't adapt. We may even see a couple of states effectively go bankrupt fighting the impending change.

This is a tidal wave starting to build and it is likely to wipe out everything in its path if people don't change.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

FUD doesn't become true if you repeat it over and over.

Red Sage ca us | 2017年5月18日

"...I wish I may, I with I might -- [MAKE] some FUD that sticks tonight!"

So go the wishes of FUDsters everywhere.

Mike83 | 2017年5月18日

Their FUD is having the opposite effect. I estimate short stock holders lost over $200 million just today. Eagles is one of those quantity types who has no quality of information.

topher | 2017年5月18日

"Gas stations might be more prevalent now, but they are also easier to put in, as long as gasoline can be trucked in. Installing sufficient power throughout the world just won't happen so fast.""

If you can truck in gasoline, you can truck in solar panels. A tanker truck with 3,000 gallons of gasoline is transporting 90 MWh of energy. A truck hauling solar panels can carry about 300 kW of solar panels, which can produce 400 MWh per year. Plus, of course, using that energy in an EV gets you 3-4 times further than the same energy from the gasoline. Your choice.

Thank you kindly.

Sparky | 2017年5月18日

@RedSage; there are a lot of good points there but I still think that the transition will take longer than people think just because the energy density of fossil fuels by weight is still much better than batteries. The military, for example, has one prime directive and that is to prevail in armed conflict. For that reason they need the most portable and energy dense fuel possible. The world's marine fleet is still using bunker fuel and will for a long time. There are aviation companies that are experimenting with bio-fuels but the UAE has placed a big bet on airline market share with support of their home oil industries by burning cheap kerosene. And most of the world's freight railways are still burning diesel even though the locomotive engines are electric. Think of that for a second: if batteries could store the energy that a tank load of diesel does it would be a no brainer for them to convert and it would be easy to do.

Conversion will take place but it will take an evolution of legislative incentives plus improved battery technology to do it. In the meantime, driving a Tesla will be an enjoyable way to demonstrate the viability of the change.

Anyone who thinks that the predictions within the article are valid can easily place a very lucrative bet on the outcome; just invest in short positions against the major automotive and petroleum companies.

KP in NPT | 2017年5月18日

@Sparky, the military is a valid point but I doubt it was included in the scope of the report. Aviation and shipping were singled out in the report as being a remaining customer for the oil industry.

However, the report does say all forms of private and commercial ground transport will switch to BEV. Some current public transport would be eliminated. (Why take the bus when you can cheaply call a car, for instance.) Some may take longer than others - but in the case of trucking, for instance, I believe the number was 70% of all current truck routes are within today's battery range. (I don't remember the number, but it was less than 100 miles.)

david.jones24 | 2017年5月18日

2025 is a bit early, I think.

As Elon has pointed out, shifting to renewables is tautological. It literally must happen. Tesla's value lies in the degree to which that process is expedited. I'd LOVE to be wrong, but having an executive branch in league with the fossil fuel industry for at least half that time will most certainly slow it some.

In any event, it's inevitable at some point, and let's all hope that point is very soon.

Sparky | 2017年5月18日

@KP, I agree that the trucking industry will probably be the next big BEV beachhead, which is, no doubt, why Elon is focusing on it. The required driver breaks will dovetail nicely with SC capabilities and the potential for battery packs in the trailers will increase efficiency as well. But I doubt that we'll see fully autonomous trucking in the near future due to liability and regulatory issues.

And that brings up another thing that this thread is helping to highlight; even in our forum community there is quite a split between people who can't wait for fully autonomous driving to become the norm so that they can leave the details to the HAL 9000 and use their time for other things, and car guys like myself who simply want the best real world driving experience possible in a capable vehicle that's easy on the environment.

I think that throughout the world the percentage of people who enjoy the challenge and independence of driving their own vehicle is greater than those who don't. That fact alone will slow the demise of ICE vehicles and the fossil fuel industry. 100 years ago manufacturers took great pains to provide a luxury cabin for automobile owners with scant attention paid to the comfort and driving pleasure of the chauffeur. There isn't a car made today that doesn't have the driver's seat considered the most important place in the vehicle.

I hope somebody archives this thread so that we can look back at it on May 18, 2025 to see who was right. :-)

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