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Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

As at 28 May, Bloomberg ceased making Model 3 production estimates based on their model. They will however still report VINs created and submitted. So with that, I endeth this thread.

Historical stuff
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According to Bloomberg’s production model, Tesla reached the 150k milestone on 31 Dec 2018, 200k on 18 Feb 2019 (although Bloomberg later revised its quarterly numbers down - so it probably happened later than that - maybe early March) and 250k on 8 May 2019

That implied a pretty consistent production rate of between 5000 and 6000 cars per week. No other manufacturer is coming remotely close to that volume of production of BEV.

If this rate keeps up, Tesla would make over 300,000 Model 3 cars in 2019.

bj | 2018年12月31日

Happy new year everyone!! 2019 is 9 hours old already where I am, wait until you guys experience what 2019 is like. You won’t believe it - so different to 2018.

And finally I can say.... I’m getting my Model 3 this year!!!!!!!!!

I just read the Electrek article - “Tesla still had over 3,000 Model 3 vehicles left in inventory in the US, according to a source familiar with the matter.”

Two things - 3000 cars is less than 1 week of production. That looks more like JIT manufacturing than overhang.

Second - “a source familiar with the matter.“. Gawd I hate that phrase with a passion. What does it even mean? Is it English? Someone either knows a fact or they don’t know. This weasel in-between cop-out should be punted into journalistic oblivion.

Coastal Cruiser. | 2018年12月31日

Relax bj. You are suffering from 2019 Pre Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). The phrase "a source familiar with the matter" is an old journalistic expression that simply means "I spoke with someone who knows that score but if I give you their name they will be fired".

ps - I'm likely getting my car in 2019 too.

greg | 2018年12月31日

@bj
Yes, this year is also the year I get my Model 3 too. So far 2019 is exactly like, living in the future!

As for the Electrek piece, well, those will be officially listed as "in transit" come the early January quarterly sales update. Some of them may actually be on a truck. The rest - probably unpopular colours or trim/spec levels or with damage of some sort requiring rework in the field before delivery.

But 3000 is a pretty small number.. Especially as Q3 had something like double that at the end of Q3 and they really pushed hard to deliver every car they could in Q3. I guess tax credit expiry has something to do with that number being lower than usual.

I doubt even Toyota runs that lean with their JIT processes either.

kcheng | 2018年12月31日

My car, LR AWD silver, has an October build date, but is only 104xxx. Seems like a very early number for an October build, .

bj | 2018年12月31日

@CC - then why not just say “a source”? Or if an adjective is required, “a reliable source”? Less is more!

PTSD... ho ho... maybe I drank a bit too much last night :)

bj | 2019年2月18日

Bump for the 200k production milestone!

bj | 2019年2月19日

Crickets.... ?

No response? People don’t give a rats? No one believes Bloomberg?

Just curious, because it appears I’m wasting my time updating this thread so I’m more than happy to put a stake through its heart.

jordanrichard | 2019年2月19日

Perhaps put in the title, in brackets, the words “update”.

Also I am a bit confused. Is this 200,000 the number of Model 3s produced and as of when?

spuzzz123 | 2019年2月19日

I live in Ohio. Why is it that I see more s and x than m3? It’s really not even close.

Bighorn | 2019年2月19日

200kth Model 3 was estimated to be built this week

bj | 2019年5月8日

The QUARTER MILLION bump!

Lonestar10_1999 | 2019年5月8日

I would love to see a running total Model 3s coming off the assembly line versus Model 3s delivered with zero items on the Due Bill.

For my SR+ produced in March 2019 and delivered in the same month, it had two cosmetic items on the due bill; a paint chip on the driver door, and a misaligned trunk. I later discovered a rear bumper fitment issue but the authorized body shop took care of it while they remedied the due bill items.

I would like to know the production rate of flawless M3s and whether that trend is improving.

bj | 2019年5月29日

Bloomberg has killed off their Model 3 production predictions. So I am ending this thread.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2019年6月3日

Production is nice. What matters are Deliveries. The traditional automobile manufacturers only count what they Ship, not what end users purchase.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 2019年6月5日

Hmmm...

Kia Forte
MSRP: $17,790
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 44,191 (Through May)
...[6688+7662+9381+9199+11,261=44,191]
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 101,890 (Total)
2019 U.S. SALES ___ 39,076 (Through May)

Tesla Model 3
MSRP $39,900
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 18,305 (Through May)
...[1,875+2,485+3,820+3,875+6,250=18,305]
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 140,317 (Total)
2019 U.S. SALES ___ 46,425 (Through May)

BMW 3-Series
MSRP $40,250
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 20,629 (Through May)
...[4,551+4,255+4,845+3,550+3,428=20,629]
2018 U.S. SALES ___ 44,578 (Total)
2019 U.S. SALES ___ 16,231 (Through May)

Tesla sold more of the Model 3 in Five months of this year to U.S. Customers than BMW sold of the 3-Series in the same market during the entire calendar year of 2018. Though the Model 3 is also outselling a car that costs less than half as much (the Kia FORTE) the BMW 3-Series is being outsold by the less expensive car. Yet, the narrative pressed in all sorts of media is that there is 'no demand' for Tesla products. I get the impression someone is lying.

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