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Does Woz have early dementia?

Does Woz have early dementia?

Bighorn | 13 november 2018

SamO charged with him at Hawthorne a couple weeks ago and he’s been on this forum. He’s always had a preference for some of the Chevy features which may be Apple CarPlay related. Overall, he likes Tesla but I think he’s FOS about AP. He seems to have squandered any aspect of making a mark in the world behind his Apple early days and he probably is awestruck by and envious of EM’s accomplishments.

Bighorn | 13 november 2018

Behind/beyond

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018

I met him once and always liked him. He was always down to earth so I am surprised to see him getting in the "fake news" limelight. Seems strange for Woz. I certainly see him in a new light now.

burdogg | 13 november 2018

Yeah, Woz got bitter about Enhanced autopilot and has let it become his focal point against Tesla...even though there is not really much else out there as far as that feature (sure supercruise but only on interstates...)

Also, he doesn't own a Model 3 - so also of course he is going to like the small aspect of the Bolt over the boat Model S for his city driving...

burdogg | 13 november 2018

M8B - this isn't the first time he has been vocal of his dislike - that quote about Elon Musk was from some time ago actually...

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018

I don't mind his honest opinion but his bitterness is just not Woz like. I think GM implanted something in his brain. I have known, for a while, his around town car is a Bolt and I started to wonder about his sanity then. I can't believe he forgave them for the EV1 shaft.

Bighorn | 13 november 2018

He’s been pretty off ever since he got booted early from Dancing with the Stars.

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018

True dat', the concerts and foray into entertainment seemed innocent but, you are right, the signs were there.

Windsurfer | 13 november 2018

I met Woz in about 1985 on a trip to Egypt. Great guy, but seriously shy and socially awkward. Wish he was more supportive of Tesla

gballant4570 | 13 november 2018

Might be a little late for his dementia to be considered early onset....

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018

Yeah, it looks like it started a long time ago. I guess I must have purged this from memory totally. WTF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoiGJMZjs0o

quinney | 13 november 2018

He was in a plane crash in 1981 and suffered a head injury which left him with amnesia for a period of time. I don't think he has been the same since then. With regard to whether bitterness is part of his character, just watch the Aaron Sorkin "Steve Jobs" film, for which Woz was a well paid consultant. What a despicably slimy effort to harm the memory of Jobs' life that was.

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018

It's sad really, I used to love the "black box" stories especially the one of them waking up the pope. Going into business will make anyone loopy, I know. The high tech mischief was right up my ally. Anyone with a good crank call story I'm all ears.

wmyers | 13 november 2018

His comments are spot on. Tesla's AP generally takes more energy and attention to drive not less. And they'll never get to FSD.

ravisundaramam | 13 november 2018

He mentions the clear advantage of superchargers, and the foresight. But seems to be let down by self driving thing. I would say it is more like making perfect the enemy of good.

OK, Tesla FSD is not there yet, for you. Any one else ahead, clearly and unambiguously?

Carl Thompson | 13 november 2018

I agree with just about everything Woz had to say.

I bought the 3 in large part for the promise of self-driving. I agree with Woz and now no longer think that's likely to happen in the time I'll own this car.

I agree and I've commented before multiple times that IMO EAP is no easier than just driving yourself.

I agree that E.M. and Tesla are seemingly not as honest as they could be.

I agree that the Bolt has several features that I wish were on the 3: Bird's eye parking view, real blind spot monitoring, cross traffic detection, etc.

I agree that Tesla owns the world when it comes to being able to drive long distances. And this is a _huge_ advantage right now because people _want_ this even if they don't _need_ it.

RedShift | 13 november 2018

I charged with him at the Fremont Supercharger about 5 years ago. Took couple of photos with him, chatted with him...he was super nice. I think I’m with him to say robust FSD is years away. Call me old fashioned or whatever, I don’t care..

This thing is still in its infancy, maturity wise. I am a chip design engineer by training, so I know quite a bit about how hard it is to make hardware and software work well together.

To me the problem starts with not having an ability to clean the cameras and sensors should some mud strike them in incelement weather. Or bugs that squashed. That’s a basic thing. (I believe Audi is the only one to have self cleaning cameras, I am not sure) Then on, add on the fact that the ‘verification space’ is so large that getting it ready for prime time will take a very long time. The real world presents constantly changing and new set of conditions. It will take a very long time to train the deep learning software to be as able as the ablest human in all kinds of conditions. Fair weather or not. Even with all the cars constantly collecting data.

Why do I say that? Look how long the system has been out. We still don’t have FSD. Simple as that. With all the learning that has been going on, where is the software that works on all roads in all conditions? How far away is it? I think it will be 5 years before we get to the robust, ready for prime time type of system.

However this is not just a Tesla problem. It is a problem for everyone. With that in mind, Woz going off on Tesla alone makes no sense to me. It is a very hard problem. Will take a lot of time to solve.

ODWms | 13 november 2018

I think 5 years is optimistic. If we get FSD (in what would be generally accepted by most as the truest sense of the term) in 10 years or so, I would be impressed.

dalesmith1962 | 13 november 2018

@wmyers “Tesla's AP generally takes more energy and attention to drive not less.”

Then you aren’t using it right. EAP should be used as a backup driver, not as a primary driver. Autosteer will try to keep the car in the lane if I get distracted but I do the steering. With a little practice I can steer without disengaging Autosteer except in rare situations.

If it takes you more energy then you are letting it distract you too much. You’re wasting too much energy on those distractions. Just drive the car only overriding EAP when it does something it shouldn’t.

When using Autosteer, keep steering the car and let Autosteer back you up then it’s not much different than with Autosteer off. It’s also less energy intensive than just letting Autosteer take control while you intensely monitor it.

“And they'll never get to FSD.”

Never is a long time.

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018
dalesmith1962 | 13 november 2018

@RedShift “It will take a very long time to train the deep learning software to be as able as the ablest human in all kinds of conditions.”

That’s why level 5 autonomy is at least 15 years away. But level 4 autonomy (full self driving in most routine driving conditions) is right around the corner.

As soon as the new hardware is available I expect a significant jump in the capability of EAP. According to Musk the software is already capable of things the current hardware can’t accomplish. I see level 4 autonomy in less than two years. Probably by the end of 2019.

dalesmith1962 | 13 november 2018

@ODWms “I think 5 years is optimistic. If we get FSD (in what would be generally accepted by most as the truest sense of the term) in 10 years or so, I would be impressed.”

You’re talking level 5. I’d be impressed if it’s available in less than 15 years. But level 4 should be able to handle most routine driving conditions (probably 90% of our driving) much sooner. Even sooner still if human driving were not allowed. The biggest problem is trying to handle the edge cases caused by bad human drivers. :-)

jamilworm | 13 november 2018

I'll believe waymo's "plans" for FSD service about a much as I trust VW's "plans" for an inexpensive BEV. I'll believe it when I see it.

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018
StealthP3D | 13 november 2018

Ok I have a Bolt, and the one thing I like is the birdeye view, thats it. I guess he never drove the Model 3, because around town the Model 3 is way more fun to drive than the Bolt. BTW, my Bolt has been in the shop 10 times for various problems and the car didn't even have 9000miles on it and less than a year. I will never buy a Chevy ever again. After 3 recalls they finally replaced the battery pack.

Carl Thompson | 13 november 2018

Waymo's service is already running in private beta mode with real customers.

Magic 8 Ball | 13 november 2018
dalesmith1962 | 13 november 2018

@Carl Thompson “Waymo's service is already running in private beta mode with real customers.”

Everywhere? Or just in well mapped terrain that the car is designed to operate in?

shawncordell | 13 november 2018

Woz and I have a love/hate relationship. Mostly hate(lately).

lumberjack | 13 november 2018

I completely agree with Wozniak's statements in that video.

Bighorn | 13 november 2018

Can you count back from 100 by 7?

thedrisin | 13 november 2018

"I see level 4 autonomy in less than two years. Probably by the end of 2019." "But level 4 should be able to handle most routine driving conditions (probably 90% of our driving)"

What is routine driving? Maybe routine in unpopulated rural area is manageable, but where I am it is survival of the fittest. Aggressive drivers. No way level 4 could be accomplished by 2019, let alone 2029.

garibaldi | 13 november 2018

I love Tesla for what it is: the best electric car. Didn't by EAP. I'm doing the trial right now and I'm only impressed by TACC. EAP scares me. I wish they had invested on simple Summon (just move straight), and perhaps car play, blind spot detection, etc.

At the moment I'm really torn about buying the EAP just expecting that's going to be better - maybe, some day, maybe, or just enjoy driving the car.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 13 november 2018

I'm sure that Level 5 Autonomy is at least 15 minutes away.

I've always liked Steve Wozniak. But then, I once really liked Chuck Norris too... Then he and his Wife did that really weird 'warning' PSA on YouTube...

I figure Dementia always arrives just in time.

shawncordell | 13 november 2018

I stopped liking chuck Norris after he lost to Bruce Lee. Anyone with that much back and neck hair, doesn’t deserve my support.

sjsamdrake | 13 november 2018

Nobody on the planet knows how much hardware it takes to implement Full Self Driving, since nobody on the planet has successfully implemented it yet.

Magic 8 Ball | 14 november 2018

What has been seen cannot be unseen. Can I sue Woz for nightmares about pink boas and plane crash victims.

RedShift | 14 november 2018

@sjsamdrake

That’s why there are a lot of startups trying to do the next best thing for FSD. The hardware isn’t up to par yet from cost and performance perspective.

Mike83 | 14 november 2018

He may just be invested in GM. His opinion does seem uninformed esp. if he is not driving a Tesla Nav on EAP.

Carl Thompson | 14 november 2018

@sjsamdrake:
"Nobody on the planet knows how much hardware it takes to implement Full Self Driving, since nobody on the planet has successfully implemented it yet."

There are self-driving cars on the road _right now_. And not just from Waymo.

TezCool | 15 november 2018

@Carl Thompson totally share your thoughts about what Woz said. And he also praised EM for his foresight on superchargers. BTW, supercharger network is the main reason (besides acceleration :)) I bought Tesla over Bolt and Jaguar. I also agree that several common-sense features like drama-free blind spot monitoring and 360 degree view (wife's Infiniti has it and it's great for parking) could have been added without much additional expense since Tesla cars already have so many sensors and cameras. I tried EAP and the only useful feature IMO is TACC which is now a decade old technology (saw it first in a 2010 Hyundai Genesis).

CorkChop | 15 november 2018

About Woz, I love how everyone interviews him and writes about what he says as if he is this great tech oracle. "Woz Say's Steve Jobs Would Be Happy About Apple Today" was one similar headline. I feel like the poor man was in the right place at the right time and has been milking that ancillary 15 minutes of fame for a lifetime.

As far as FSD- It rained here pretty significantly last weekend and an unusual puddle formed on the site of a busy street. I travel this route almost every day and never noticed it before. It was not so much a puddle as a dangerous deep flash flood. That is when it occurred to me, how would the Tesla react to this unexpected condition? Would it have tried to plow right through it? In the winter when the snow obscures the lanes and commuters just follow the ruts in the road, how would the Tesla drive in those conditions?

I think the days of hopping in a pod, napping and having a drink on the way to Disney are VERY far off.

spuzzz123 | 15 november 2018

Carl you have never disagreed with a single contrary point of view, so your 2 cents are quite predictable.

Here's a shocker though. I agree with Woz (and partially Carl) that autosteer is disappointing. The nags probably bother me the most. But lane changing is erratic and sometimes scary. EM has only himself to blame for creating the high expectations.

Back to CT though....EAP is the combination of autosteer and TACC. So if you tell me it's easier to just to drive yourself than use those two features on a long stretch of road -- or a heavy stop and go traffic -- then I say you are either out of your mind or being deliberately disingenuous.

casun | 15 november 2018

frankly, i don’t care what woz has to say about tesla any more or less than i do anyone else. i might agree with him about auto-steer. i think it’s more difficult than steering on my own. i only use it because i feel like i’m contributing valuable data that will eventually lead to a really useful feature. tacc is amazing.

Carl Thompson | 15 november 2018

@spuzzz123:
"EAP is the combination of autosteer and TACC. So if you tell me it's easier to just to drive yourself than use those two features on a long stretch of road -- or a heavy stop and go traffic -- then I say you are either out of your mind or being deliberately disingenuous."

I must be out of my mind, then.

With EAP and Autosteer you still have to keep your hands on the wheel, keep your mind focused on the road and still do all the mental work involved in determining how the car should safely proceed so your not saving any energy there. But in addition to that you now need to watch EAP, analyze its actions and make sure it's not doing something that might be incorrect. That _adds_ to your cognitive load, not _lessens_ it. Also, the twitch you have to do every 30 seconds to make sure the car realizes your hands are on the wheel adds to your physical load slightly.

I suspect a lot of the people who say it makes their drives easier are allowing themselves to not stay as alert at the wheel as they should. This is supported by all the posts like "Autopilot saved me from a crash when I was distracted and didn't notice the car in front of me suddenly stop." Sure, for those people Autopilot is easier because they're using as a way to not focus on the road.

I'll concede that TACC by itself is a net plus.

Carl Thompson | 15 november 2018

s/your/you're

georgehawley.fl.us | 15 november 2018

TACC, especially in stop and go traffic, is excellent. Autosteer on long stretches of road with light traffic definitely reduces fatigue.

@sjsamdrake: If you think hardware adequacy for FSD is unknown, think about the software requirements. I believe the only hardware for Tesla that has pooped out for FSD is the central processor. They keep upping the horsepower and keep running out of gas. At some point they will run out of memory as well, if they haven't already. OTA upgrades are going to be interesting when the downloads get up into the terabyte area. Tesla will probably send owners a message asking when they would like the car to drive itself to the nearest service center for new SW.:-))

Don't know anything about the Woz other than the Apple II worked pretty well and he didn't belong on Dancing with the Stars in any capacity. But he is entitled to his opinion.

Everyone makes mistakes. The important thing is what they do about them. Elon fesses up and does better. That's a good thing.

kalagulab | 15 november 2018

Just watched - he wasn't hypercritical, in fact I'd say his comments on Tesla were kind of 50/50.

My 2 cents on FSD - I didn't order it because I still think it's a long shot in at least the next 5 years, or longer. Elon has said they're working out 'edge cases' on the current EAP / navigate on Autopilot. My opinion is that there are so many edge cases that computers need to be trained on; yet human brains instantaneously assess and react. EAP works (imperfectly but well) in a somewhat controlled specific environment, for which it has been approved. The 'generalized solution' holy grail is going to be very hard to achieve.

That said, I'd be thrilled if Tesla can actually achieve FSD, and sooner is better. I'd love Elon to prove me wrong!

spuzzz123 | 15 november 2018

Ok Carl. I am not one to care about grammar/spelling especially in informal forum settings but understand your correction because many visitors do seem to mind. And yes the nag sucks. I get why it’s there but I hope they figure out how to lengthen it and be net safer than self driving.

Haggy | 16 november 2018

He seemed down to earth in personal interactions and seemed like a nice guy. I think he read a lot into what Musk has said over time, and in all fairness based on the promised coast to coast demo, it seemed as if that indicated that FSD was imminent. Woz is now saying that he doesn't see that from any company.

When he first got a Model S, there were all sorts of comments on how great the car must be since he got one. Then suddenly he's a villain when he gets a Bolt. Neither makes much sense. His area of expertise wasn't automobiles, and if he likes a car or dislikes it, the only thing that's out of line is people reading anything into it.

Tesla's cars have amazingly high customer satisfaction rates, and that's something to go by, but what's more important is for a potential buyer to learn about the car and find out if it makes sense to get one. Especially now that EAP does more or less what was promised, and FSD isn't on the order page, fewer people will be misled.

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