Submitted by bob.naughtin on Fri, 2016-08-05 04:45
I first wrote about this when first predicting that Elon may announce a second Secret Master Plan. Since then the second plan was released and more information released at the latest shareholders Q&A. I now feel more confident putting some dates and numbers on what I previously posted, so here goes...
I believe that not only will Tesla will be in the multi-millions of vehicles at about 2020, but in the tens of millions after that, unless other car companies finally get their act together.
All the requirements for that to happen are coming to fruition in the next year or two, and then two years after that the production will be getting put in place. Tesla will have reached the tipping point of rapid expansion, limited only by physical restraints, for several convergent reasons.
At around 2019/2020 Tesla will have their gigafactory fully running and producing batteries at around $100 per kWh.
Tesla will have their Model 3 and Y running and producing 1-2 million cars per year and will be on their 2nd to 3rd iteration of production lines.
Tesla will have their pickup, semi and mass transit vehicles in production.
Tesla will have fully proved the demand for electric vehicles. They will be better and cheaper than an equivalent ICE vehicle in almost every quality, safety, utility and financial aspect.
Tesla’s fully autonomous system will be legal in many countries.
Various countries will have passed their already indicated regulations banning the purchase of ICE vehicles from 2025 onward.
The threat of Climate Change will be more apparent than it is now.
Therefore, everything will be in place around 2020 such that there is no good reason to buy a new ICE. Not only is an EV better in almost every respect, but you can expect a new ICE vehicle’s residual value to be close to 0 a few years after you buy it. Almost everyone will want to buy an EV, the demand will be in the multi tens of millions, but the supply will not be there.
Tesla will then be able to raise as much finance as they require to duplicate their battery and car production around the world as fast as possible.