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Tesla Model 3 Part Two

Tesla Model 3 Part Two

Am hoping a concept of Model Y will appear on second Model 3 unveil so buyers can better decide if they want a 3 or Y. No need for specs like range, etc., but just reveal the exterior design and the interior design / seating.

Red Sage ca us | 12 oktober 2016

I'm hoping that Tesla Motors avoids the issues caused by showing the Model X three-and-a-half years before it was ready for public consumption. So, when they show any future configurations of the Tesla Generation III vehicles, they should be firmly within an 18 month window of release in order to minimize 'The WAIT' as much as possible. This, even though Elon Musk has stated he would love to introduce a new car every year...

dsvick | 13 oktober 2016

@Red Sage - "when they show any future configurations of the Tesla Generation III vehicles, they should be firmly within an 18 month window of release..."

I agree, except that if they do show the Y early and there are M3 reservation holders in front of me that like it, they might change their reservation and move me up ... :)

jamilworm | 13 oktober 2016

@Red, how far out from the 3 release do you expect the Y to be? I suspect (or maybe just hope) the design is pretty far along already, because they will want to be sure that there is nothing about the existing 3 platform that will cause unnecessary and unexpected challenges for the Y.

makobill | 13 oktober 2016

I'm not going to lie - I'd give long pause on a Model Y as I'd prefer that to a sedan given the right look/specs. My solution is to buy both however, so would be an additional purchase for me, so waiting isn't a problem. I agree with Red on the wait window - could hurt the Model 3 release with people on the fence and if its not available in the same window.

david.jones24 | 13 oktober 2016

If the Y is unexpectedly revealed soon, there might be some people that jump to that model. Personally, I don't mind the wait since I can have more time to just pay off the car directly. More time goes by, the more options I can afford.

Calibrotha2000 | 14 oktober 2016

I think the Model Y wouldn't be till 2020 honestly highly doubt you'd wanna have model 3 reservation owners holding out and 2020 is when all the other companies are supposed to come out with cars in the same class so I def think any model Y talk should be ruled totally out

jordanrichard | 14 oktober 2016

A prototype/concept of ANY vehicle is not a "product". A product is something that you can buy.

gregcropper | 14 oktober 2016

I hope they wait until right before production before they announce a model Y, so they won't dilute Model ☰ sales.

SamO | 14 oktober 2016

@gregcropper,

I'm not sure I believe it's the Y this time, but they will definitely announce the Y and at least 1 additional vehicle before delivery of the Model ☰

Red Sage ca us | 14 oktober 2016

I have said for over two years that I expect the Tesla Model ☰ to eventually [MIRROR] the entire BMW 3-Series lineup -- wherever and whenever it makes most sense.

Most seem to expect the Model Y will be an SUV, perhaps a bit like the BMW X3, but with Falcon Wing Doors. That is a possibility, I guess. But I think the Model ☰ badge will adorn configurations other than the current Sedan: Crossover/Wagon, Coupe, and Convertible. So, if a Liftback version is introduced, that would be an analog to the 3-Series Gran Turismo. But considering the European market, I figure a Hatchback Estate car would more closely match the 3-Series Wagon. I would be immensely surprised if a 2-Door Liftback Coupe (with Falcon Wing Doors) were to appear prior to 2019 -- but that would make me happiest. At least until a Hardtop Convertible version were introduced (highly unlikely).

I think that Tesla wants to prove the Model ☰ can outsell the entire BMW 3-Series lineup, worldwide, with only a Sedan first, and they will. That success may well delay the release of other configurations for a while. But perhaps not their announcements: because Elon Musk has said he would love to release a new car every year if possible in order to become a 'full line' producer of cars.

makobill | 14 oktober 2016

@Red - Interesting thought process and likely the next evolution when it comes to building out the portfolio. To date, a model represented a car with Tesla. I can see your point on how the Model ☰ might end up being a lineup of multiple vehicles - and makes sense as they expand the product portolio. I think they need to change some naming nomenclature, as the 'model' in front should become 'series' or something of the like. Makes sense though when you think about them expanding their portfolio.

brando | 14 oktober 2016

BMW _ Series
Mercedes _ Class
Tesla Model _

Porsche 9__
Peugeot _0_
Saab 9_ and 900 and 9000

Traditions, even naming traditions, are not necessarily planned, but evolve, right?
I think Model is both unique enough and just fine.
Worked for FORD in the beginning.

gregcropper | 14 oktober 2016

I like the Model nomenclature too.

topher | 14 oktober 2016

At some point Tesla may just realize that the Model ≡ waiting list is longer (in terms of production times) than the design cycle of the Model Y. At that point, there is nothing to lose by announcing it. Reservationists (if I can coin that usage) will simply rearrange themselves based on which version they want, and Tesla will still be production limited for both.

Tesla intends to be a major car manufacturer (among other things), that means producing new models faster than 1 every few years; in fact the process will need to be simultaneous for different models.

Thank you kindly.

CC396 | 14 oktober 2016

@Red Sage ca us, I agree with you, there should be multiple model within Model 3. Hatchback is something I would want and FALCON WING doors!

The reason I want to get a glimpse of Model Y is because it is a disappointment when Model X's second seat can't fold down. If Model Y is the same as X where the second seat can't fold down, I maybe more tempted to get the Model 3, but if there is a hatchback version maybe even more tempting. Hoping falcon wing doors will be an option!

jamilworm | 14 oktober 2016

@jordanrichard "A prototype/concept of ANY vehicle is not a "product". A product is something that you can buy."

I disagree with that statement. I would consider the Model 3 first reveal to be a "product unveiling". They still unveiled a product (Model 3) even if it wasn't final yet. That is why I don't think this upcoming product unveiling will be reveal part 2, because the Model 3 has already been unveiled.

I mean, I guess you are right that the actual physical prototype unit is not THE product, but it still represents a product that will eventually be sold.

Red Sage ca us | 14 oktober 2016

makobill: Thanks!

brando: Indeed.

gregcropper: As much as I like it, ElonMusk has stated that the Model Y will be the last of their cars to use that naming scheme.

topher: Yup. Once Tesla Motors can lay claim to outseling both BMW's biggest seller in the 3-Series, and their flagship vehicle, the 7-Series, that will make a huge statement. Because among premium passenger cars, the 3-Series has been the perennial worldwide leader in sales for a very long time. Especially in the US, where doing so will leave the egg on the faces of all the ~350 'independent franchised dealerships' that sell BMWs.

cchui396: Look more closely at the design of the Model X. Elon has said the primary focus of the design was safety. I suspect the car would not be likely to get the expected, longed for, safety rating if the second row seats both folded flat and had integrated shoulder belts. With the doors swinging upward, and opening an entry to the third row, there is not a side pillar available to attach the shoulder belt to. Attaching shoulder belts to a door panel proved to be an absolute disaster in the early 1990s.

jordanrichard: If the 'product' is a Model ☰ P135D 2+2 Liftback Coupe with Falcon Wing Doors, that would certainly be 'unexpected', I think. (bigsmileyfacegrin)

EVolution | 15 oktober 2016

I just want it asap to cancel my Bolt reservation and get an affordable EV asap

EaglesPDX | 15 oktober 2016

T3's are not going be delivered to general public until 2018 and Bolts are starting delivery in a few weeks. If it's a Bolt or a Tesla for and you can't afford both (buy a Bolt in 2016 and sell it in 2018) you need to decide if the Bolt fits your requirements.

Badbot | 15 oktober 2016

what about the ones delivered in 2017??? since you eliminated the general public, who gets these?

EaglesPDX | 15 oktober 2016

@Badbot "what about the ones delivered in 2017??? since you eliminated the general public, who gets these?"

Tesla employees, SpaceX employees, Solar City employees probably covers first 10-15,000 cars which is likely the 2017 production. We are six months after supposed design finalization and there has been no announcement of final design, Tesla may be six months behind already.

Given Teslas history, 15,000 T3's in 2017 would be an expected number.

bmalloy0 | 15 oktober 2016

Everyone, I'm sorry. I have tried my hardest not to feed Eagles. But dear god.

15,000 M3s in '17 is a joke. Even those of us that are being super cautious with delivery numbers are expecting at least twice that.

EaglesPDX | 15 oktober 2016

@bmalloyO "15,000 M3s in '17 is a joke."

Actually it would be good first step if Tesla can indeed get that many on the road by 2017. Tesla can't even announce final design results that were supposed to be completed in June. Is Tesla actually six months behind? And we all know that the 500,000 in 2018 is a good goal but no expects Tesla to make that, same with the 2017 internal deliveries to Tesla employees.

brando | 16 oktober 2016

Tesla Employees 14,000
Space X 5,000
SolarCity 14,000

No idea how many might afford a Model 3
And then previous owners in California
Not sure if all previous owners before any new owners world wide/USA.
Would seem no new Tesla customers get cars til 2018 at the earliest, would be a safe guess.

Would love to see Tesla out produce the Bolt, but I would also be very pleasantly surprised in 2017.

WormtownKris | 16 oktober 2016

GM is going to start selling a limited number of Bolts on the West Coast late this year (about 10 weeks left, btw). Most East Coast Chevy dealers aren't even aware of the car. "Bolt? You mean Volt! Yeah, I've got one in the back corner of the lot, covered in leaves and tree sap. Battery's not charged, but there's a gallon of gas in it. Want to take it for a spin?"
Bolt is a >30,000/year compliance car. No matter when Tesla starts rolling out Model 3s, by no later than February 2018 there will be more T3s on the road than Bolts. If you live in CA, you can get a Bolt several months earlier than a Model 3. If you live east of the Mississippi all bets are off, and you will pay more for a comparably equipped, slower charging, slower all around Bolt. Everyone but Eagles knows this. :)

mathewjoseph1993 | 16 oktober 2016

looking forward to see tesla HUD in the next model 3 reveal.

SamO | 16 oktober 2016

"If deliveries don't start on July 1, 2017, Tesla is a failure and I will definitely buy a Bolt."

"If I don't get an update right now . . . I will sometime in the future get a Bolt"

"I'm going to hold my breath until Tesla does things the way that I want."

bwahahahahahahahahaha

The better question is how many Roadster, Model S and Model X owners will jump the line by the time deliveries start. There have been roughly 170,000 deliveries through Q32016. Currently at a 100K run rate.

As for "demand" . . . I've been having this conversation since 2013 here. Demand for 3 is astronomical. It will be the best small sedan ever made. Y will be the best small SUV. Truck will be the best truck. Van will be the best van.

There is nothing to "fear" from Bolt. Think pimple on elephant's ass.

jordanrichard | 16 oktober 2016

What Eagles EaglesPDX conveniently forgot to mention that the GM has already said that Lyft drivers and a ride share company (I forget the name) are getting the first Bolts. No coincidence that Lyft was bought out by GM...... So, the first Bolts are not going to the "general public" either. GM will do just as Ford and Chrysler have done for decades, they will sell a lot of cars to fleets like Avis, Hertz, etc. and include those sales in a manner which give you the impression that people are buying their car in droves.....

In the late 80's both Ford and Honda laid claim to having the number one selling car in America. From a purely statistical stand point, Ford was correct. Ford made/sold more Taurus's than the Honda Accord. The problem is a lot of those Taurus's were fleet sales. Whereas Honda sold more Accords bought buy actual people, with their own money. Fleet sales are used to seriously skew the real popularity of a given model.

Red Sage ca us | 16 oktober 2016

GM Strengthens Business, Communities through Mobility
http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/u...

Lyft and GM’s Express Drive Expands to Colorado and California
http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/u...

finman100 | 17 oktober 2016

So how many GM employees get to be 1st in line for a Bolt? hhhmmm, i wonder...

jordanrichard | 17 oktober 2016

finman100, well in all fairness we can't criticize GM for giving their employees first crack at the Bolt, Tesla did the exact same thing for both Tesla and SpaceX employees.

dsvick | 17 oktober 2016

@Eagles - "Tesla can't even announce final design results that were supposed to be completed in June. "
I'm sure they could if they wanted to, they choose not to though. That doesn't mean that anything one way or the other.

"Is Tesla actually six months behind? "

Since they finished the design on schedule just a few months ago I find it hard to believe that the schedule has slipped 6 months in the past 2. Just because no one called you on the phone to personally let you know that they were done doesn't mean they aren't.

finman100 | 17 oktober 2016

it was sarcasm. or that's what i was going for.

gregcropper | 17 oktober 2016

Tesla just announced an event at the Gigafactory January 4th. I wonder if that will be Model ≡ part 2.

EaglesPDX | 17 oktober 2016

@dsvick "Since they finished the design on schedule just a few months ago I find it hard to believe that the schedule has slipped 6 months in the past 2."

Since they can't announce the results of the final design, no one knows if it was completed or not. If it was completed there is no reason not to let the paying customers know. If it wasn't completed, say nothing and keep working. That would put Tesla six months behind on the entire project.

We have the say nothing part.

dsvick | 18 oktober 2016

@Eagles - "We have the say nothing part."

No, as you no doubt know, Elon has said on a couple of occasions that the design was completed on time. Just because they don't choose to share with you when you want them to doesn't mean anything other than you're just looking for something else to whine about. There are all sorts of reasons to plan a big reveal where they can show off everything, not the design this week, the options in a month, the pricing a month or two after that.

Your outraged sense of self importance and what you are owed, couched in the thinest veneer of looking out for all of the customers, doesn't fool anyone. I'm done discussing this, and everything else with you, since you're obviously incapable of listening to anything other than your inner child.

PhillyGal | 18 oktober 2016

@WormtownKris - +1
i've had that same convo with east coast dealers. "Bolt with a B." "Volt with a V?" "Bolt with a B!"

@SamO - I thought I heard somewhere that the percentage of that 373,000 reservation list was only like 3%. Did I make that up? I thought I heard that around the same time Tesla mentioned 50,000-100,000 in 2017. Because of those two things, I got my head wrapped around me getting a Model 3 in December of next year. (Had originally assumed May-June of 2018.)

jordanrichard | 18 oktober 2016

PG, you are not hearing things, I too remember Tesla pointing out that the number of M≡ reservation holders that were existing Tesla owners was in the low to mid, single digits.

jordanrichard | 18 oktober 2016

I meant low to mid single digits percentage wise.

KP in NPT | 18 oktober 2016

Yeah PG I thought I remembered it was 7% of current owners had reserved the Model 3.

PhillyGal | 18 oktober 2016

Yes, 7%. That's what I remember, 93 new.

That would have put me mentally within the first 50,000 after Tesla and SpaceX employees. I didn't factor in a solar city merger though. Womp...

brando | 28 oktober 2016

PhillyGal,
SolarCity wasn't part of Tesla when delivery schedule was explained, so they might not get to go to the front of the line for deliveries.

I think Tesla will make 3 model on both platforms for a long time. Maybe add a Van?

Model S/X/pickup
Model ≡/SUV/pickup truck

Can't imagine Elon buying into the marketing BS (to maximize profits) of a need to make a full BMW series of offerings. I never followed the reasoning of why so many models were needed/wanted. Elon wants to make compelling products that are beautiful and profitable and successfully sold (large numbers).

Competitors have yet to make an offering as good as, let alone better, than the model S (not even an ICE/Hybrid).

Then add in Freight Semi Trucks and maybe even Buses. Delivery Trucks and Vans?

Elon, I believe, want to show the other vehicle producers that all transportation being electrified make the most compelling products, if you try. To speed up adoption of electrics. Obvious?

jamilworm | 29 oktober 2016

@brando I also don't expect Tesla to make so many models. I believe most manufactures do it based around a particular engine or certain performance characteristics, but we've already seen Tesla can offer those performance upgrades in the form of software updates, it doesn't have to be a completely different model of car. I think they'd only have separate models when they think a new form-factor is needed.

EaglesPDX | 29 oktober 2016

@brando "Can't imagine Elon buying into the marketing BS (to maximize profits) of a need to make a full BMW series of offerings. I never followed the reasoning of why so many models were needed/wanted."

A good model for Tesla would be Subaru which currently makes and sells 582,000 cars in the US. Tesla's goal for 2018/2019. Subaru markets with 6 models vs. Tesla's current 3. It sounds like Tesla is going to market a fourth, a smaller version of the TX similar to the T3 being a smaller model of the TS. So Tesla will be marketing 4 models in 2020.

KP in NPT | 29 oktober 2016

EM has stated they have plans for a the Y crossover built on the 3 chassis, a pickup, a cargo van built on the pickup chassis, and a Semi Truck

https://electrek.co/2016/07/20/teslas-pickup-suv-crossover-model-3/

https://electrek.co/2016/08/03/tesla-minibus-semi-unveil-production-in-2...