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Likely no final reveal?

Likely no final reveal?

From live blog session updating Q&A with Elon

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2017/02/22/tesla-earnings-arrive-am...

Q:When people could expect to see a final, production-ready version of the Model 3?

A:Not sure if it’s going to make sense for Tesla to show a final version before start of production, Musk says. First cars usually go to employees so any issues can be addressed. Final version is still a few months away and likely close to July. Car is going to look “pretty close” to what Tesla unveiled last year, he adds.

Hmm, not sure how I feel about that.

skygraff | 22 februari 2017

Pretty close but much better...

rrobin36 | 22 februari 2017

My concern more lies with final specs. What is the minimum range one can expect from the Model 3? Will there be a HUD? Etc. would be nice to know before deciding how much money to throw into is as far as configuration options. I guess we'll see if other details come out between now and July.

freeewilly | 22 februari 2017

I have seen the M3 in person, the exterior looks like a slightly smaller Model S, no change needed.

I will be extremely disappointed if the interior of M3 looks like the the concept version they showed a year ago.

Lonestar10_1999 | 22 februari 2017

My main concern is that I want to test drive a production M3 before I have to configure. I hope the early production models go to the Tesla retailers.

greg | 22 februari 2017

This tells me one of two things. Especially given Pencils down was nearly 1 year ago by the time the next reveal comes along.

1. There are some technical issues with some of the tech in the M3 not being ready, for a reveal prior to the date when production is starting. e.g. new tech is late arriving or proving more of a problem than initially expected.

2. And/or they are going to include some pretty smart/clever features in the M3 which Tesla don't want to tip to the market too soon. Especially if that tech is interior related (maybe think HUD or flat screen dashboard or driverless).

After all, we know the tech of the car itself (motors, battery tech, BMS, glass roof, likely range options, AP HW 2.0) are all known quantities that Tesla already use in the MS or MX, so there should be no surprises on the externals of the car. The only issue on that front is what they did to "fix" the "trunk opening".

So the only thing is whats on the inside which is key.

While a not quite ready tech does raise concerns, if the initial recipients are all Tesla/SpaceX employees then there is a "late Beta" testing group to help iron out the kinks without leaking too much [given they're employees they'll no doubt have NDAs etc and secrecy clauses for Africa].

The fact that it is likely some late breaking tech means that it could be something truly special when it does arrive. So while I want my M3 ASAP, if I have to wait a little longer for the much better car, I'm all for it.

So while I'd like to see the final M3 sooner than later, I'm happy to wait if needed.
And if the M3 turns into a MX with big delays and big complications around some components, then we can cross that bridge then.

Itrnhds | 22 februari 2017

if car is going to look pretty close to what was unveiled, what about his comments on a spaceship interior? never been in a spaceship but what I saw last year is no where near ready

Tcloutier5890 | 22 februari 2017

Well spoke Greg!

dsvick | 22 februari 2017

@greg - "And/or they are going to include some pretty smart/clever features in the M3 which Tesla don't want to tip to the market too soon. Especially if that tech is interior related (maybe think HUD or flat screen dashboard or driverless)."

Not tipping the market too soon and also not revealing to prospective Model S and X buyers yet. Since it's very likely that any new tech will appear in the S and the X first they'll want to be ready to produce it there before they show it in the 3.

greg | 22 februari 2017

@dsvick

Yes, a good point re: coming to MS/X first.

So maybe there will be an refreshed MX ,MS reveal closer to the Northern Hemisphere summer with a "oh, and one more thing" tacked on the end - that thing being that options X,Y,Z we just showed you on X and S, they're also standard on the M3. And [heres some we prepared earlier!] cue the M3 reveal.

JPs M≡ | 22 februari 2017

rrobin, I can tell you exactly how I feel about it..... IT'S A REAL LET DOWN!!!

Last April, while responding to a Tweet expressing concern about the lack of a driver-centered instrument cluster or HUD alternative, Elon responded with "It will make sense after part 2 of the Model 3 unveil" and "Wait until you see the real steering controls and system for the 3. It feels like a spaceship." Well Part 2 has come and gone, and I don't think anyone would disagree that we really didn't learn anything about why having no display directly in front of the driver "makes sense." We certainly didn't see anything about the "steering and system" that looked like a spaceship!

Hope was rekindled somewhat after Part 2 when Elon tweeted "of course" when asked if there would be a Part 3 reveal. And later, at the special shareholder's meeting when asked when that reveal might occur, he said “Today is not the time for that announcement. Uh but I mean it’s probably, yeah, I don’t know, um, beginning of spring, or something. Yeah – 3-4 months from now.”

Disappointingly, today we hear that "it probably doesn't make sense to show the car again before production starts in July." On top of that, we heard loud and clear that there is still just a single screen for the Model 3. While he didn't specifically say there wouldn't be a HUD, his direct comparison to the two screens and two computers to drive them in the Model S (and X) seem to hint that what we saw at the initial reveal may be about all we get other than some UI enhancement on the center screen.

As for that horizontally mounted center screen, while it may be better for the front passenger, placing the audio and any other controls on the right side of that screen seems to put them awfully far away to be easily read and managed by the driver. Consequently, that's where the controls were shown during the test rides, as the left side of the screen was all MAP and a little speedometer in the upper left corner. I don't know about anyone else, but my current vehicle has a small center screen in the instrument cluster where my speed, estimated range, and NAV directional indicators appear, and I REALLY like seeing them there instead of having to look over at the larger screen in the center console. I think I'm really going to miss not having that info directly in front of me.

End of rant... Go Tesla!!!!

greg | 22 februari 2017

@shop

How would you feel if M3 came with a gesture based control system for all the dashboard controls along with a proper [driver side] HUD along the lines of what Panasonic showed at CES 2017?

Would that be worth the wait do you think? Would that meet your expectations and then some?

And would it explain why the controls are easier for the passenger than driver to reach?

Cowbell | 22 februari 2017

Since the car was designed to be primarily self driving, there's little need for a display in front of the "driver" or a HUD. The center landscape display is also better for watching in-flight movies.

Red Sage ca us | 22 februari 2017

Space: 1999; UFO; Thunderbirds... Gerry Anderson's visions of The FUTURE were always nice.

FYI, folks...? shop is always right. That doesn't mean our views can't differ from time-to-time... It just means I won't mind at all if you agree more with him than you do with me. :-)

I am certain that as was the case with the Master Control Unit for Model S, the central display for Model ≡ will be customizable to some extent. It isn't so important what items were shown where in a demonstration nearly a year ago... Just about all of it will probably be different in the final car. The user interface will definitely change to reflect more features and allow information to be shown in a manner that benefits the driver's preference if you like. I expect the final product to be very much to my liking. So, nothing at all like a Cadillac or Porsche.

tstolz | 23 februari 2017

I was disappointed to not hear more about M3 as well although at the same time expected it. With a years worth of M3 orders in place plus the fact any new tech needs to be released to MS and MX first ... what else could they do? Tesla releases and announces tech when it's ready ... never before.

kzodz | 23 februari 2017

I suspect the issues lie with making the car work out of the box with minimal upgrades from what we already know. Gesture controls would be a costly nightmare, as could augmented reality. Fully Autonomous? Are you kidding me? AP2 still hasn't reached parity with AP1. I don't need a spaceship from the future just a nice alternative to a BMW 3 series or an Audi A4 that isn't too problematic to own and operate for a long time.

jonathanbrown1265 | 23 februari 2017

I'm excited about the model 3 coming to fruitition ....I don't care what the instrument panel looks like or even if there is one? Either the center stack speed listed and range available and the radio station...works for me...if it goes to a hud like in my corvette that's cool too. If not who cares...I really don't..

I want awd, automous mode and ludicrious mode but I'm not spending tesla model s model option pricing so ludicrious mode may take a back seat for me..I didn't realize it was 133 grand for ludicrious mode model s...screw that...

I usually have paid cash for the past 40 years of only buying new cars...as it keeps me level headed on the worth of vehicle pricing...

Right now my latest new ride is a c6 corvette z51... if I can get the tesla model 3 to accelerate to 60 mph in 4 seconds I'll be happy....as long as I don't have to spend more than 50 grand to get awd and zero to sixty in under 4 seconds...and then other options above that...

I was hopeful tesla would offer a discount on an option popular package that would simplify their first year production variations...if I were tesla I would offer a popular option package...for a discount combination....and another grand down o generate cash for production

Something like that...I expect to see preproduction cars around the country in showrooms by September for ordering specs of existing customers

Red Sage ca us | 23 februari 2017

kzodz: I'm pretty sure the goal has always been to make the Model ≡ a compelling purchase. And thus, far more than just a, "...nice alternative to a BMW 3 series or an Audi A4 that isn't too problematic to own and operate for a long time." It will be superior to them, at the very least.

Red Sage ca us | 23 februari 2017

jonathanbrown1265: I would not be surprised if a base Model ≡ P85D costs no more than your Corvette. Think about it. It's been quite some time since the base price of a Corvette was $35,000.

For the sake of nostalgia revisited:

http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2005-chevrolet-corvette-z51-road-test

The C7 Corvette looks like a Hotwheels car come to life -- but I can't help but wonder, each time I see one now, "Why isn't this an electric car?"

http://www.caranddriver.com/chevrolet/corvette

JeffreyR | 23 februari 2017

It's not clear to me listening to Elon on the call yesterday if he was trying to not give too much detail (set unrealistic expectations) or if he literally meant no other Model 3 special events. It sounded like Founders and Employees would get some deliveries first, then things would open up to the rest of us once the kinks were ironed out. The Model X release was like that.

Good news is that Tesla expects to ship thousands of the Model 3 this year. So even if Tesla does not have an event (we would all be disappointed), there will be a huge number of videos posted for us to pour over. I think they'll do a Delivery Event though. Seems like it would be a shame if they did not.

Red Sage ca us | 23 februari 2017

I'll listen to it later this morning. I have said for some time that the Model ≡ will outsell the BOLT in the U.S. this year. That goal should be reachable. So much for GM's head start...

jefjes | 23 februari 2017

I'm all in for the delivery event idea that JeffreyR has posted ideas for elsewhere on this forum. The comments about all the possibilities for why postponing the reveal are interesting but my main concern is the base model cost rising. All the extra bells and whistles that everyone would like to see plus the threat of unionization, could force the price for the base model higher and higher. That would definitely be a cause for concern if it happens since many of us put down our $1k reservation money based on that $35k starting figure. By the time the car is in full production and is available for most to configure, the average sales price of cars in general may have gone up by then and so they may feel justifiable in raising the base price. If that occurs, it will be a problem for many of us and may adversely affect sales to the original reservationists. While waiting only gives me more time to save, I was hoping that would lead to lower payments and/or more options. Being disappointed that there isn't a reveal coming next month doesn't make me want to request my money back in any way but it does leave a bunch of unanswered questions that will lead to many unfounded speculations and fears as the one I've presented here.

andy.connor.e | 23 februari 2017

Pretty close design wise. id say

Johnwhi_ms | 23 februari 2017

Elon, unacceptable! Say what you mean and mean what you say. If your word cannot be trusted, then you can not be trusted.

Badbot | 23 februari 2017

It is much too soon for the three to arrive with driverless controls.
It will need human controls until the laws are in place or you would need to keep it parked until that time.
So expect a steering wheel and pedals.

Red Sage ca us | 23 februari 2017

Those who have decided not to trust Elon Musk never will, and they are the ones that can certainly be trusted to twist his every word at any opportunity.

rrobin36 | 23 februari 2017

@Red Sage ca us - I have complete trust in Elon still. This hasn't hampered my excitement. Hopefully more details come out between now and July.

Haggy | 23 februari 2017

That quote above is way out of context. He did say it would be close. Close, but better. In some ways, much better. You could say it will be a lot better than what was at the first reveal.

That's not a direct quote but is the essence of what he said. He did say that orders would start in 3-4 months, and I would expect that people will have a reasonable idea of what they are getting before they order. At the long end of that, (4 months) that's consistent with "close to July." It sounds more like wiggle room, but also that once they have what they think is final, some things might change.

You also have to consider that there is no final version and won't be one until they stop making the car. I have what people want to call a 2014 Model S. But if you look at the owner's manual from 2014, it doesn't describe my car accurately, while the one from 2016 does. Tesla doesn't use model years for a reason. There has to be a VIN code for year by US law, but it's a specification of when the car was made rather than what features or model (in the sense that a year and model name is a model designation for most cars) it is.

dsvick | 23 februari 2017

@jefjes - "my main concern is the base model cost rising. All the extra bells and whistles that everyone would like to see plus the threat of unionization"

In the call Elon specifically said "A lot of the bells and whistles that are present on an S and X are not present on a Model 3", also, just because people are asking for them doesn't mean Tesla is going to add them. The unionization threat is real but, from what I've read, not much of a concern at this point. Apparently the whole process can take months to years, and Tesla factory employees are already the highest paid in the country (including stock options I think). So any unionization shouldn't cost Tesla money, if anything, between dues and such it might end up costing the employees money.

bj | 23 februari 2017

I don't understand the negativity here. OK, so no reveal in March. But the bigger news is surely that production is on track - planning for 1000 cars/week in July, 2000/week in August, and 4000/week in September. That means somewhere between 84,000 and 100,000 cars being made in 2017 - a substantial proportion of all the pre-reveal reservations. Something the naysayers said would be impossible and that Tesla would be late, as usual.

Why hasn't that got everyone excited?

rrobin36 | 23 februari 2017

@bj, I am excited that they're on track. It would have been icing on the cake if we were provided a date for a final reveal so that we can be given formal and final information on the specs for the Model 3. That's all.

rrobin36 | 23 februari 2017

@bj, I am excited that they're on track. It would have been icing on the cake if we were provided a date for a final reveal so that we can be given formal and final information on the specs for the Model 3. That's all.

akgolf | 23 februari 2017

In three to four months when some are allowed to order, we'll know the final specs and options!

I'm excited!

Bluesday Afternoon | 23 februari 2017

I've already learned to function without a few bells and whistles in my Model S. If not having coat hooks constitutes a bell or whistle. 8-)

krafter324 | 24 februari 2017

I think we all want to see it already since it's been almost a year BUT we've waited this long, and it sounds like production is way better (decent amount of cars may be produced in 2017) than most would have thought. Maybe some teaser photos will be posted soon...we are almost there! Counting down the days! :)

Rsandy | 24 februari 2017

I assume the first set of Model 3s will go to showrooms and the test drive fleet. That might use up a week of production if they do reach the 1000 per week goal in July. After that the cars have to spec'ed to customer orders. Even with a very tight turn-around between order and manufacturer and the earliest cars restricted to a limited set packages of options and color combinations, they need to have the Design Shop open a month before a car goes from irrevocable order to production. They don't stockpile parts so this kind of lead time is required for the flow of parts to reach the assembly line.

Not having the Design Shop open until July only makes sense if the deliveries to customers (Founder's Edition or whatever) is pushed back from July. The date of the final reveal or whether they have a final reveal at all is less important than the date of the opening of the Design Shop. The Design Shop tells you what every option will cost and what combinations are possible. The "reveal" just drums up business.

d.r.coursol | 24 februari 2017

I think that this is also a way to keep pre-orders from going Maximum Plaid. Why have a reveal 3-6 months before production and rack up Another 4-600 000 pre orders before the car enters production. Still... I was hoping for a 03/31/17 reveal. :(

massimob30 | 24 februari 2017

Come on Elon, throw us a bone here.

Frank99 | 24 februari 2017

d.r. -
I was expecting a 3/31 reveal also, but I have a different take on the reveal..

I've decided that when Elon said he expected a ton more reservations after "part 2", he really expected a much stronger reaction to the autonomous capabilities shown in Reveal 2 than he got. I think he expected everyone to drop what they were doing, say "an autonomous car for $42K? Sign me up!", and what he got was "Ehh, it'll be cool if you ever make it work".
So now everyone's expecting another big reveal that's going to drive a bunch more reservations, and I think they're going to be disappointed - the next reveal is going to show the five colors you have a choice of, finalize costs for options, and show that the recent interior pics are the actual interior. I don't think there's going to be anything revolutionary, or anything that's going to drive a bunch more reservations.

Haggy | 24 februari 2017

The naysayers don't care about context. Their take away is that Tesla is bleeding cash, will need to raise more money, and is on the edge of bankruptcy. The reality is that Tesla is spending cash on schedule, will probably have enough, but wants to have a reserve in case it's needed. That doesn't mean there's an expectation that more cash spending will be needed. It's just the reality of ramping up. If they want to make more cars sooner, it means spending more money up front.

vp09 | 24 februari 2017

We were at Tesla Showroom Pasadena this afternoon, and the worker who seemed to be the top person on hand, Nadine, said the Final Reveal would be in April. She said no exterior changes from 3/31/2016, just interior changes.

vp09 | 24 februari 2017

She also said the Model Y would be a smaller Model X built on the Model 3 platform. I asked when I could buy a Roadster II, and she said it would be 2 or 3 models past the Model Y.

Red Sage ca us | 25 februari 2017

Frank99: Except for the words 'I don't think', that appears to be a plausible scenario.

Haggy: For some reason the Naysayers cannot fathom the notion that Tesla will be able to make money by selling cars, or solar panels, or stationary storage.

It makes me think the $#0r+s are bound and determined to drive TSLA to somewhere above $2,400 per share before they give up... And that the various pundits, talking heads, and ANALysts won't stop trying to talk sense into Tesla supporters until they have seen about 60-to-90 consecutive months of profits... And even then they will still call it a 'cult stock' and claim that 'there has to be an end' to its popularity, some day... And that will be a full three or four years after the supposed 'big boys' will have missed their deadlines to have offered 'real EV competition' on the market... Because Tesla will always be a moving target, leading the way.

vp09: Interesting.

topher | 25 februari 2017

" the next reveal is going to show the five colors you have a choice of"

Why 5? We know that they can paint 10 colors on X and S. Will they need to dedicate separate lines to each?

Thank you kindly.

kwen197 | 25 februari 2017

Greg & Shop. Considering Model 3 is on course to deliver 3 to 5 months early, I do not understand the complaint's

Sit back, Elon always deliver's an exciting and break through product that will "WOW" the industry.

Red Sage ca us | 25 februari 2017

Elon has a strong tendency to want to avoid putting on events it seems. He'd rather work than put on shows or throw parties. Maybe he'll decide to have more fun once he gets old, like me, sometime in the next four years. That said, it has been a long while since I saw FISHBONE perform live... I did get to see Rev Horton Heat some months ago... And then Morrissey a bit more recently though.

Ross1 | 26 februari 2017

@jefjes:
vailable for most to configure, the average sales price of cars in general may have gone up by then and so they may feel justifiable in raising the base price. If that occurs, it will be a problem

Tesla is in the enviable situation where the price has been set but not the specification and bill of materials.

Having so many fwd orders allows Tesla to
. reduce the speci
.delay some features to a later iteration
.confine options, eg 5 colours not 10
.deliver by geographic order
.produce high profit models first
.produce standardised models first...no tooling alterations

you get the gist: while they continue to unreveal, they can change anything they want, pencils down, up or sideways notwithstanding

rsvalesen | 26 februari 2017

I hear of all the frustration on this forum. In my opinion I am willing to wait for purchase to clean up this car. But as a customer I want some things from Musk (not a vague things to come communication) - a final reveal, a M3 test drive and a reasonably debugged vehicle. No one should be so naive to expect less from Mr. Musk.

jefjes | 26 februari 2017

@Ross
I do get the gist and hope you're right on one hand and wrong in another way. Most want the best car that can be bought for the promised $35k and a list of options that may drive the price beyond reach won't make many feel better if they can only afford the most basic "stripped down" model. Being Tesla has already shown the tendency to add many features to later models as tech becomes available won't discourage sales. That would be like not buying a new cell phone with the latest tech because you know even better will be coming. Tech advances will hopefully continue long into the future so we as consumers look forward to even better things to come. My point here will be if the current available tech isn't included in the base model to a large degree instead of taking it away to control price, there will be disappointment.

JeffreyR | 26 februari 2017

Rsandy wrote, "I assume the first set of Model 3s will go to showrooms and the test drive fleet. That might use up a week of production if they do reach the 1000 per week goal in July."

No, the first set of "Founders" M3s will go to employees (and investors if I heard correctly on last week's call). Tesla has done a road show for reservation holders w/ a few MXs in the past, but MX did not hit Galleries until 3-5 months after deliveries began. If you look at the MX release party you can see the likely template for M3:

- Why are we here? Tesla's Mission: Accelerating the transition to sustainable energy (PowerWall & Glass Roofs too?)
- Safety is top priority: 5-Star rating and...
- Autonomous driving preso and...
- Elon summons empty (driverless at least) M3 on stage--and the crowd goes wild
- Performance
- Feature, feature, feature (HUD, voice-control, HEPA filters, accessories rack, all-glass roof, etc.)
- Supercharger and Service Center update
- Let's deliver some cars

Here's hoping it's something like that. Remember interior features like HUD and all-glass roof are hard to demo. HUD you could see in MS/MX first too.

Red Sage ca us | 26 februari 2017

Rsandy: There are currently about 100 Tesla Stores/Galleries in the U.S. If two Model ☰ were sent to each location, one for display, another for test drives, that would be 200 units total. At 1,000 units built per week, that would be only 20% of a week's output. Even if you upped the number of cars to three or four per location, that would correspond to 300 or 400 units in all, or 30% to 40% of a single low volume Production week.

I seriously doubt that each store will need ten demo cars at once early on. As Production ramps up, and more locations are opened, especially after Tesla wins their Federal case, there might be 200 locations by the end of the year in the U.S. 4 cars per site would be 800 cars with two at each site as Service loaners perhaps. The demo cars, display vehicles, and loaners could be cycled out of service and sold every three months or so at each location.

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