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How often have you Checked Your Estimated Delivery?

How often have you Checked Your Estimated Delivery?

I have to admit I can be a bit OCD about things like this so I have been clicking a couple of times a day. Still at Feb-Apr 2018 for the Standard Battery model, which is what I will probably order. The Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive started Oct-Dec 2018, now at Aug-Oct 2018. First Production hasn't changed, Dec 2017 - Feb 2018. I reserved online as soon as it was available.
Is there somebody in the Tesla IT dept monitoring how often reservation holders check, then changing their place in the queue depending on how obsessed they are? :)

bmz | 10 augustus 2017

I expect that all those who don't cancel will move up in line. Before the 1st deliveries of July 28 the average price was estimated to be $42,000. Based on the actual prices now available, the average price will be approximately $51,000. The demand for a $51,000 car is a lot less than a $42,000 car. I would expect at least 100,000 cancellations.

bmz | 10 augustus 2017

Oops, I miscalculated; based on the data in the model3Tracker, the average price will be approximately $60,000.

pyrofer | 10 augustus 2017

Ok, I am worried now. "My Tesla" doesn't show a model 3. Just the option to buy an S, X or Powerwall. Also, the delivery estimator redirects back to a generic Model 3 page.
I live in the UK and wonder if my account is correctly linked to my pre-order? Do others in the UK get this?

iroberts | 10 augustus 2017

Too Often.....

Ehninger1212 | 10 augustus 2017

Beginning and end of day, also have screenshots of changes that have happened.. but that's totally normal.

geoffalexander737 | 10 augustus 2017

Mine haven't changed, I have one premium at October-December, and one standard January-March. I reserved in line March 31 in California and am a non-owner.

Techsla | 10 augustus 2017

Where do we check this ?

Carl Thompson | 10 augustus 2017

@flwrman:
"That would be interesting to see as well as you!! We might have talked to each other !! I have gray hair, was wearing a cap and had a black backpack."

Wow, you remember what you were wearing! I just took a look at my photos and I do see a grey haired man with a black backpack wearing a grey jacket and a hat but the hat isn't what I'd call a "cap." It looks more like a fedora with a bunch of pins on it. I don't suppose that's you?

Carl

rxlawdude | 10 augustus 2017

"Oops, I miscalculated; based on the data in the model3Tracker, the average price will be approximately $60,000."

Source? This is an absurd contention.

Coastal Cruiser. | 10 augustus 2017

Once

HummerMan3 | 10 augustus 2017

Whoo hoo! Hadn't thought about rechecking my delivery date until reading this thread, and I am up 1 month on the expected delivery for standard model, now May - July 2018 (Reserved 4/3/16, non-Tesla owner, Florida).That means I have more of a fighting chance to snag the full tax credit!

ejunk | 10 augustus 2017

I check everyday and nothing's change. Is it next year yet?

bmz | 10 augustus 2017

@rxlawdude: Source? This is an absurd contention.

https://www.model3tracker.info/report_config_popularity.php

Goroqs | 10 augustus 2017

Hi everyone!

I reserved on the day of reveal, March 31, and I'm getting estimates of Mar-May 2018. I live in CA and a non Tesla owner and was wondering why I'm behind a lot of people outside of my state. Arent Californians getting their Model 3 first?

deemo | 10 augustus 2017

Mine is showing Nov-Jan for First Production, Jan- Mar for Standard and AWD on both orders- I reserved in store pre reveal, am a Tesla Owner and live in California - why are others on east coast getting dates in October ahead of this

burdogg | 10 augustus 2017

deemo - I am convinced there is some error in this whole calculator. I have someone looking into it right now. I am in similar boat - Colorado, Owner since 2015, reserved online right before reveal, and get dates of Dec-Feb for first production.

Interesting stuff and confusing. Hope to have good news from my contact, instead of the well, you are reserved and in line as an owner - don't worry about the estimate dates showing up :)

deemo | 10 augustus 2017

I talked to them 2 weeks ago - they messed up my account and originally had me listed as a non-owner - yesterday they assured me that they have fixed it but haven't seen any changes, the dates are the same and I should get owners preference on 1 order and not the other so should have 2 different delivery date ranges not both the same. The rep I talked to yesterday said his showed Nov- Jan also and he is an employee in California but I think he mixed up his standard delivery and my first production timeframes.

burdogg | 10 augustus 2017

I guess you and I are just the red headed step children and therefore got lower priority than the blue eyed blonds of the family :)

deemo | 10 augustus 2017

LOL

rxlawdude | 10 augustus 2017

@bmz, from your source: UNITED STATES (USD DOLLARS) TOTAL BUDGETS: 1,361
Average Budget: $ 50,194

How are you claiming $60,000????

daver6640 | 10 augustus 2017

I have been checking daily and I don't think my estimated delivery dates has changed.
I am not sure if this helps on giving people an idea for Non-Owners living on the West Coast but here are my details:
First in Line in Monterey CA and Non-Owner

First Production - Nov 17 - Jan 17
Standard - Jan 18 - Mar 18
AWD - Jul 18 - Sep 18

daver6640 | 10 augustus 2017

Lol! meant Nov 17 - Jan 18 on First Production and reserved at 10 am.

deemo | 10 augustus 2017

Dave - Thanks for the info - My AWD dates are Aug-Oct 2018, a month later than yours, your other dates match mine so it is not showing owner preference dates for the AWD version at a minimum. And based on Geoff dates as a non owner in CA of Oct-Dec it still looks like all my dates are suspect.

mntlvr23 | 10 augustus 2017

East Coast, non-owner, 10 am 03/31
First production date: Nov 2017 - Jan 2018

I read this to mean November 1st or maybe the 2nd

rdovale | 10 augustus 2017

I’m sorry what was the question, I was on the delivery estimate page?

flwrman | 11 augustus 2017

@ Carl Thompson---Yep, that does sound like me !! Were you close to me,. ahead of me or back of me ? I am 82 and will be 83 by the time I get my M3 !!! Good thing I am in good health or there would be one less buyer and you all might get yours car sooner!! HaHaHa

theo.lagendijk | 11 augustus 2017

daily

fgaucher | 11 augustus 2017

From Montreal, Canada. Reserved on mach 31 during the reveal. Non owner. Checked the estimated delivery date the first time today and there is one date and its end of 2018. Hope that will will adjust with the ramp up.

bmz | 11 augustus 2017

@rxlawdude: "@bmz, from your source: UNITED STATES (USD DOLLARS) TOTAL BUDGETS: 1,361
Average Budget: $ 50,194
How are you claiming $60,000????"

The problem with using the average budget is that before July 28 people were thinking the average M3 would cost $42,000, so they would have adjusted their budget accordingly. The $60,000 is based on the options the majority said they wanted on their M3's.

Neither measure is flawless. Regardless, it is safe to say that with people now looking at average prices of $50-$60,000 there should be at least 100,000 cancellations. Time will tell; but I am very confident that those who do not cancel will all move substantially forward in the queue :-)

bmz | 11 augustus 2017

@flwrman: " I am 82 and will be 83 by the time I get my M3 !!! Good thing I am in good health or there would be one less buyer and you all might get yours car sooner!! HaHaHa"

So you are like me--buying an M3 with FSD so your kids won't be able to take your keys away from you ;-)

Carl Thompson | 11 augustus 2017

@flwrman:
"Yep, that does sound like me !! Were you close to me,. ahead of me or back of me ? I am 82 and will be 83 by the time I get my M3 !!! Good thing I am in good health or there would be one less buyer and you all might get yours car sooner!! HaHaHa"

It's hard to tell from my pictures but I think I was maybe 5 people ahead of you in line. You may have seen the person next to me in line leave to go to Starbucks and bring a bunch of us coffee. I'm a bald black guy so I may have stood out if you noticed me (not a lot of black people buying Teslas unfortunately). If you like I can send you the picture I have that may be you. You could reach me at carl.thompson [@at] outlook [.dot] com. I don't normally use that email address but I'll check it later today.

Carl

Jvb1103 | 12 augustus 2017

I check weekly. Non owner (yet). Reserved on 7/3/2017 (east coast). First production: Apr - Jun 2018

cweaks | 20 augustus 2017

I reserved mine on April 4, 2016. Today was the first day I checked believe it or not when I heard from someone they finally had an estimated delivery date online. For "First Production" my estimate is still not until Feb - Apr 2018 so I am trying not to get too anxious but I am super excited!

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