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Check-In: Current owners living within an hour or so of the factory who reserved the morning of 03/31/16

Check-In: Current owners living within an hour or so of the factory who reserved the morning of 03/31/16

Just curious how many of you are out there on this forum. Please post to check in.

It will also give us some idea as to the group who will be invited first to configure (after employees).

Thanks

mvu | 25 augustus 2017

Checking in

Carl Thompson | 25 augustus 2017

Yup. Waited in line at the factory hours before doors opened early morning 3/31.

Carl

LA-Fohlen | 25 augustus 2017

Check

sroh | 25 augustus 2017

Checking in also. Technically, my reservation wasn't completed until after noon. But I waited in line in San Jose. Nov-Jan is my window.

SolidWhite60DX | 25 augustus 2017

I reserved during the reveal, so 3/31 evening. I do live close to the factory.

I'm thinking of holding out for AWD, though.

SamO | 25 augustus 2017

Confirmed both reservations at 10:05am, by Tesla Service.

SamO | 25 augustus 2017

Oops. I should read more carefully. I'm NOT within an hour of the factory.

noleaf4me | 25 augustus 2017

@Carl - how many people were actually in the factory line?

KP in NPT | 25 augustus 2017

Carl Thompson, are you a current owner?

Bluesday Afternoon | 25 augustus 2017

@SamO

You are if you fly direct! ;-)

chris.pribe | 25 augustus 2017

Checking in. About 35+/- min. by car from where I live to the Fremont factory.

I've put myself down for first production and have a delivery estimate of Nov '17 - Jan '18. I plan to place my order as soon as the white interior is available.

RichardKJ | 25 augustus 2017

I'm close to the factory, but my reservation was 4/2. My delivery estimate in Oct - Dec. Current owner.

dsvick | 25 augustus 2017

SamO - "Oops. I should read more carefully"

So should half the other posters .... :)

Sweetride | 25 augustus 2017

Checking in...mid-morning reservation 3/13 at Dublin, live about 45 minutes from the factory. Current owner.

mntlvr23 | 25 augustus 2017

@chris.pribe - Are you a current owner? it seems like November is for the non-owners and October is for the owners.

rxlawdude | 25 augustus 2017

I'm an hour away by Southwest. :-)

mark | 25 augustus 2017

Check that!

mntlvr23 | 25 augustus 2017

@KP - he is not

Bluesday Afternoon | 25 augustus 2017

After extensive research, and a couple of happy hour drinks, I have determined SamO, rxlawdude and SR do not qualify. A direct flight on SouthWest Airlines from John Wayne Airport (SNA) or LAX takes slightly more than an hour according to my FlightStats app. Not sure if a 1st class ticket would help! :-(

mntlvr23 | 25 augustus 2017

The airlines exaggerate the flight times, so that they show up as late less often, plus - 1st class does land first, so therefore the ruling is that you all qualify

Bluesday Afternoon | 25 augustus 2017

;-)

Carl Thompson | 25 augustus 2017

@KP
"Carl Thompson, are you a current owner?"

Oops, no I am not a current owner. I misread. Sorry about that!

Carl

carlk | 25 augustus 2017

Reservation made the first hour it opened online. Some people still have to work to support the expensive hobby.

flwrman | 26 augustus 2017

Live 5 miles from factory. In same line as Carl. Walking out the door at 10:20 am. Reservation about 10:17 am. Non owner. Estimated delivery is Nov 2017 thru Jan 2018 ! Hurry up EM HaHaHa. My Tesla Charger was delivered today. My Electrical people all booked up till Oct !!

noleaf4me | 26 augustus 2017

@mntlvr23 - have you determined who may be first to get theirs? (on Oct. 17)

EinSV | 26 augustus 2017

Reserved in Burlingame but hit the line when it was literally at its longest so reservation not taken until after noon. Current owner and currently planning to order initial production version, so should get one of the early ones : )

Darkon | 26 augustus 2017

I was a bit sad that my online preorder before the the unveiling only got me a Dec-Feb date for FP, but it looks like I would have only been able to shave a month off that by reserving in-store since I'm not a current Tesla owner, so overall I'm pretty happy I'm as early in the queue as I am.

mntlvr23 | 26 augustus 2017

@E- so that just might answer my question. It takes Simi Valley out of contention - and puts a level of confidence of 90% for Silicon Valley and 5% for Sonoma Valley

Shesmyne2 | 26 augustus 2017

Also Burlingame 3/31. Reserved at 10am
I live about 20 minutes (on a good day) from the Mothership.

Still Grinning ;-)

mntlvr23 | 26 augustus 2017

So far, it looks like we will be counting on hearing from the following people to hear the good word about the start of non-employee configurations being opened up:

Vuminh, LA-Fohlen, sroh, SolidWhite60Dx, sweetride, mark, EinSV & Shesmyne2

and perhaps also from the three musketeers:
SamO, Simply Red & rxlawdude

Anyone else? (please only those who are EACH of these 1) Current Owners, 2) Reserved 03/31/16, and 3) Lives within one hour of the factory (okay, even if only by plane)

Bluesday Afternoon | 26 augustus 2017

But, did they indicate the larger battery on their MyTesla account?

mntlvr23 | 26 augustus 2017

@SR - I do not think that should matter. I am not trying to figure out who is getting there vehicle first, I am just trying to find out the first batch of people who will be invited to configure.

I think that the current thinking is - that the preferences saved on your "My Tesla" estimator is just there to give Tesla an general idea of how many people are looking for each type of configuration - and that your selection is non-binding and you will be given the opportunity to configure based on your priority level and place in line (ie:
configure now with the first production run versus defer configuration until other options are available)

noleaf4me | 26 augustus 2017

mntlvr23 - I believe your assumption is correct. I do wonder what happens if the early reservers want dual motors???

Bluesday Afternoon | 26 augustus 2017

I would expect all California Tesla owners with a first day in-store reservation to receive notification on the first day. This number is not as large as most would think. If the 7% estimate for all owners reserving a Model 3 in store on the first day is accurate (130,000 X .07 = 9100) we are looking at 9,100 owner reservations worldwide. California owners, more than likely, will be the largest group at, say, 35% then we're looking at approximately 3000-4000 California owners (probably closer to 3,000).

I admit this is conjecture on my part. So somebody feel free to check my math but questioning my logic is shameful and, to be honest, not nice!

Famman49 | 26 augustus 2017

I live close to the Factory. Delivery estimate for first production is still Oct-Dec 2017. Stood in line the morning of 3/31. In Brooklyn. Was there on an extended trip. Couldn't wait!

rxlawdude | 26 augustus 2017

@Simply Red, you didn't account for the fact that Southwest doesn't have a First Class section. But you're right that the stated flight time is 90 minutes.

Off topic, but you know what's funny? In the late 1960s when I lived in L.A. and my sister was at UC Berkeley, my parents would take me up there every couple of months to visit. PSA flight time (LAX - SFO) was 45 minutes. The one way fare? Around $14. Here we are 50 years later, and flying is SLOWER than it was way back then. Clearly, Moore's law doesn't apply to air carriers.

mntlvr23 | 26 augustus 2017

@SimplyRed – here are a couple things that may be wrong with your calculation.

1). There have been owners who reserved after 03/31 reporting estimates of October at the earliest - so the 130,000 might be low.

2). If what is above is true, and that 7% was provided early on, I would expect the percentage of owners reserving to grow significantly as everyone started to realize how hot the car was.

Perhaps your 3000 is the low-end boundary, and the high-end boundary is: 250,000 x 0.60 (%US) x 0.50 (%CA of US) x 0.25 (of owners) ~ 19,000.

(Yes I know that my number is likely way too high, but is just a different way to look at it)

Bluesday Afternoon | 26 augustus 2017

I agree with between 3,000 and 19,000 California Tesla owners with a Model 3 reservation. But how many live in my zip code of 92604?

deemo | 26 augustus 2017

I am a California owner in 92064, does that count.

Bluesday Afternoon | 26 augustus 2017

@deemo

It looks like you live in the southern end of Southern California. Your area may be just too far south unless Tesla feels the need to grant San Diego County a special Chargers compensation. ;-)

cornellio | 26 augustus 2017

Check. Within 20 minutes of the factory.

cornellio | 26 augustus 2017

Oops, uncheck me. Not a current owner. Missed that part.

Haggy | 27 augustus 2017

I was in line in Fremont a few hours before the place opened, and the line was already moderately long, but I don't think I saw more than one or two Teslas in the parking lot. That doesn't mean that an owner didn't show up in a different car, but I get the impression that there weren't many ahead of me. If Tesla gets up to 500 cars per week by the time they open things up to non-employees, it might be more relevant when I hit the button to confirm than where I stood in line, and how quickly I make an appointment for a test drive once one is offered might be more important than any of it.

For now, all I know is that the Delivery Estimator says Oct-Dec. I'm assuming that thousands of others have the same estimate, and Tesla might open up ordering to groups of a certain number at a time rather than literally inviting people by sending out email one at a time in reservation order.

noleaf4me | 27 augustus 2017

@Haggy - I hope you get you Model 3 soon -- like on Oct. 17th...

cruisin | 27 augustus 2017

Check, within 20 minutes of factory

chris.pribe | 27 augustus 2017

@mntlvr23 - No, I'm not an owner, though I am less than 7 miles from Tesla Headquarters on Deer Creek as well, will that help me do you think? ;)

mntlvr23 | 27 augustus 2017

Chris - that will help you get your car faster than other non-owners. But this thread was searching for owners, as they will be getting theirs first

cephellow | 27 augustus 2017

Oct-Dec 2017/ owner, line-monkey & close to factory; reserved 2

Famman49 | 27 augustus 2017

Ooops. Not current owner. Except in my imagination.

chris.pribe | 27 augustus 2017

@mntlvr - Ah, skimming too quickly.

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