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I did some math and I don't like the results. Help me fix it.

I did some math and I don't like the results. Help me fix it.

If there have been approximately 160,000 Tesla cars sold in the US and 55% of current owners ordered a model 3 (number comes from a poll of owners) then there could be 88,000 model 3's going to owners. I'm assuming current 2-Tesla families balance out with some owners that will reserve 2-model 3s. If 88,000 cars go to owners and 1/3 of them delay ordering for dual motors etc. (which is the approximate ratio on the google doc spreadsheet) then there could be about 58,000 owner model 3s delivered before 1st day line waiters. This seems high... Please tell me I'm wrong. Otherwise even at 5k per week I won't see a car for several months.

DTsea | 15 december 2017

Nobody knows how many.

Also if you waited on east coast its longer.

12Brent | 15 december 2017

Oh come on, there has to be an actuary out there that can predict this! :) I'm in Colorado... hoping we come before the east coast.

Frank99 | 15 december 2017

Way back when there were only 370,000 reservations, Tesla noted that 93% of them were to people NEW to Tesla - or that 7% of reservations were to existing owners:
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/04/93-of-tesla-model-3-re...

Your guess is as good as mine as to whether this has increased or decreased in the meantime, but it's the only solid data point that we have. 7% of 500,000 current reservations would be about 35,000, about half those are outside the US so we're down to perhaps 17,500 owner reservations in the US. If half of those are waiting for D, then we're talking 9000 in front of you. At 5000/week, that's about two weeks worth of production.

Rutrow | 15 december 2017

With you 12Brent.

Arkansawyer here. Hoping you and I get ours before FillyGal and Mintlover. :-)

12Brent | 15 december 2017

Thanks, Frank99. I like that math better. See? I knew someone could fix it. I do remember that 7% number now that you mention it... I'm sure it went up some after the reveal and the hype snowball started to roll downhill. When I was standing in line I said I'd be happy to have the car in 2 years... hopefully I get it a month or two early but March looks as likely as anything.

burdogg | 15 december 2017

12Brent - what part of CO - Denver metro area, western slope, eastern, southern??? I am on the western slope, so just curious.

12Brent | 15 december 2017

@burdogg I work in Boulder and live in Denver... lots of time sitting in traffic, can't wait for autopilot. I've never had an automatic transmission car so autopilot sounds amazing to me.

Tuning In | 15 december 2017

"Way back when there were only 370,000 reservations, Tesla noted that 93% of them were to people NEW to Tesla - or that 7% of reservations were to existing owners"

What was their cutoff to get in line in front of non-owners? Could they in fact have procrastinated to put down their deposit until 1 year later and still be ahead of all non-owners?

georgehawley.fl.us | 15 december 2017

When O lived in CA, people in Demver were referred to as being "back East".😀

georgehawley.fl.us | 15 december 2017

When I lived... O is east of I on the keyboard.

noleaf4me | 15 december 2017

I believe there is some sort of cut off where a current owner would not jump to the front of the line -- not sure when that date is but pretty sure that is the case.

burdogg | 15 december 2017

Not necessarily - I have seen some on facebook reporting placing order Oct 2017 and have been invited to configure their 3. Not sure I agree with that, but it is happening, wonder if there is a glitch in their system.

Frank99 | 15 december 2017

It's unclear if such a cutoff exists. People have reported that Tesla reps told them that buying a new/used Model S would move them to the front of the Model 3, even as late as mid-this year. Of course, Tesla Reps have been reported as saying a lot of ridiculous things, so it's hard to tell if that's true or not.

patswin | 15 december 2017

For reference, I put my deposit down March of this year. My delivery estimate is Dec-Feb (east coast)

patswin | 15 december 2017

And current owner

jordanrichard | 15 december 2017

Where on earth did you get that 55% of current owners ordered a M3?

12Brent | 15 december 2017

It's from an Inside EV poll of 300 Tesla owners from shortly after the reveal.

https://insideevs.com/survey-92-of-tesla-owners-will-buy-tesla-again-55-...

Tuning In | 15 december 2017

I can see the figure of current owners shifting from 7% to 50% over the course of over a year. Why bother putting $1000 down a year and a half early if your guaranteed to be at the front of the line anyhow.

DaninChi | 15 december 2017

"Of the ~300 owners taking part, 55% of them plan on purchasing Model 3, or have already placed a reservation."
So something less than 55% actually placed an early reservation; the rest "plan(ned) on it." And they only surveyed 296 when there were ~100,000 US Tesla owners at the time. And there's no explanation of how the sample was selected. I wouldn't take any conclusions from that survey very seriously.