Submitted by 12Brent on Fri, 2017-12-15 14:10
If there have been approximately 160,000 Tesla cars sold in the US and 55% of current owners ordered a model 3 (number comes from a poll of owners) then there could be 88,000 model 3's going to owners. I'm assuming current 2-Tesla families balance out with some owners that will reserve 2-model 3s. If 88,000 cars go to owners and 1/3 of them delay ordering for dual motors etc. (which is the approximate ratio on the google doc spreadsheet) then there could be about 58,000 owner model 3s delivered before 1st day line waiters. This seems high... Please tell me I'm wrong. Otherwise even at 5k per week I won't see a car for several months.