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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Volker.Berlin | 2 november 2011

It's an "S". michiganmodels, you need a new screen or a different font. ;-)

michiganmodels | 2 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 620 (October 31, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,608 (October 31, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,644 - October 31, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

michiganmodels | 2 november 2011

Thanks for the correction :-)

michiganmodels | 2 november 2011

"Reservation Growth for Model S continued to accelerate, as we added about 1,150 net new reservations during the quarter. This brings our total count to about 6,500 reservation as of the end of September."

http://ir.teslamotors.com/

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1315613635x0x514425/7...

September 30th Official Count: 6,500
September 30th Model S Tally: 6,892

GoTeslaChicago | 2 november 2011

There is some exciting news in the Tesla Motors, Inc. – Third Quarter 2011 Shareholder Letter -

available here:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1480769681x0x514425/7...

Relating to a recent post questioning Elon Musk's statement that that there were over 6,500 reservations, apparently that only refers to the end of the quarter, ie. September 30th, 2011.

"Reservations growth for Model S continued to accelerate, as we added about 1,150 net new reservations during the quarter. This brings our total count to about 6,500 reservations as of the end of September."

this compares to 6,749 reservations listed on this forum on October 1st. Please note that reservations increased 1150 during the entire quarter, and at least 895 in the month since then!

Way to Go!

Mike Fowler
Chicago

michiganmodels | 2 november 2011

According to the 2nd and 3rd Quarter Shareholder Letters, net reservations per month are increasing.

2nd Quarter Shareholder Letter:
"At the end of June, we had over 5,300 reservations, and through July, this number has grown to over 5,600..."

3rd Quarter Shareholder Letter:
"Reservations growth for Model S continued to accelerate, as we added about 1,150 net new reservations during the quarter. This brings our total count to about 6,500 reservations as of the end of September..."

July 2011 Reservations: 300
August 2011 Reservations: 425 (Average of remaining 850)
September 2011 Reservations: 425 (Average of remaining 850)

I'm interested to know how many net new reservations were added in October.

jackhub | 2 november 2011

Judging from the bar chart in the 3Q letter to shareholders, it appears that the additional reservations in October almost matched the increase for the entire 3Q! Using michiganmodels info about 950 were added in October compared to 1150 for the 3Q11. That presents the beginning of a steep curve for the 4Q11.

michiganmodels | 2 november 2011

@jackhub - I was thinking along the same lines.

I figure, unlike the Q2 letter, Telsa wanted to keep the first month's reservation numbers close to their chest. It will sound much more impressive if/when the Q4 reservations almost double compared to the Q3 reservations. I believe the increase in reservations is directly related to the October 1st event, it's subsequent press coverage, and the current Model S tour. While the reservations may slow down, I don't think it will be much. Even though 2012 production is full, there is a huge population of drivers who have leases that expire after 2012. Thus, there is a large population of potential reservation holders who will sign up for a 2013/2014 car. Only time will tell...

jackhub | 2 november 2011

I agree. They are playing it close for a big impact in the 4Q report. We may not see any more numbers above 6500 until then. There is no reason to put a bigger number out there in order to support 2012 production.

JamesIwan | 3 november 2011

Just reserved mine at #5,652.

"
Congratulations and welcome to the Tesla family! We look forward to getting you behind the wheel of your custom built Model S.

Your Reservation Sequence number is 5,652 of the General Production reservation list."

Peace,
James

michiganmodels | 3 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 620 (October 31, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,652 (November 3, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,712 - November 3, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

STARR X | 3 november 2011

Got my confirmation# today - #5653 for a production Model S in the US.

Robert.Boston | 3 november 2011

Welcome, Starr X! Out of curiosity, what led you to reserve now?

michiganmodels | 3 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 620 (October 31, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,653 (November 3, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,713 - November 3, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

michiganmodels | 4 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 620 (October 31, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,653 (November 3, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,689 - November 3, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

jackhub | 4 november 2011

In several interviews, Elon has remarked that only 600 of the Model S reservations are from roadster owners, the balance are new to Tesla. The count in this tally is 272 roadster owners who also are buying the Model S. That suggests that most of the roadster owners who have reserved the Model S have neglected to say that they are roadster owners when they report in this tally. Of course if they are already counted under the Production tally, it doesn't matter in the total. Or have they not reported to this tally at all? It is curious that the last roadster buyer to report buying a Model S was July 9 in Hong Kong.

Come on guys, report in!

Mycroft | 4 november 2011

jackhub, don't forget the Signature Special List (SSL) is also made up of Roadster owners. Add in the founders and the global numbers and you'll get up to 600 or so.

Frankly, I think it's phenomenal that 1/3 of Roadster owners are also buying a Model S! I think it's amazing recidivism for such high-priced vehicles.

jackhub | 4 november 2011

@mycroft
Thanks, Right.

EricK | 4 november 2011

An observation: 1,310 S indicates that they expect a chunck of these to drop off. I saw on YouTube:

http://youtu.be/5CjnL573Tcc

Where the Tesla rep in describing the interior answered a question that the 1st 1000 are signature there after are production. Interesting the driver is #~1600 and the rep indicated that he is 600 in the general production and likely to get his car in the fourth quarter. Statements made 6:30 into he 7:23 video

Mycroft | 4 november 2011

Yeah, so if the first 1,000 of the P number sequence is set aside for signature, then our guesstimates of reservations are off by over 1,000.

It sounded like he knew what he was talking about, but who knows.

At the end of the video he said that the Signature will only have three options; Sport, pano roof, and colors.

michiganmodels | 4 november 2011

@Mycroft - Our September 30th count was only 392 higher than Telsa's official announcement.

Mycroft | 4 november 2011

Then that guy knew not of what he spoke.

michiganmodels | 4 november 2011

@Mycroft - On the sequencing yes, but on the options, I believe he's correct. My Tesla Rep told me the sport option and the Pano Roof was not included in the Signature. Also, the design center clearly differentiates colors between Signature and General production.

clea | 4 november 2011

You are forgetting that the wheels will also be an option (already part of the design studio). I can't imagine that they would force us in the northern climates to 21" wheels that will be hard to outfit with winter tires.

Mycroft | 4 november 2011

I think that means you can choose either the 19 or the 21 inch wheels without paying extra either way. Same with the paint colors. They're all premium, so you're just picking between them.

300... | 4 november 2011

S 639 on 11/04/11

michiganmodels | 4 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 639 (November 4, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,653 (November 3, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,708 - November 4, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Daxz | 4 november 2011

US - P 5679 on Nov 4th

michiganmodels | 4 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 639 (November 4, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,679 (November 4, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 205 (October 21, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,734 - November 4, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Mishkin Berteig | 5 november 2011

Canada reservation # 214 as of Nov. 1, 2011.

michiganmodels | 5 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 639 (November 4, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,679 (November 4, 2011)

Canada
S 92 (October 3, 2011)
P 214 (November 1, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,743 - November 4, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

Styo2000 | 5 november 2011

Need about 41 a day to reach 10,000 year end! Hopefully Seattle, Chicago, and Newport beach will be big contributors.

Discoducky | 5 november 2011

bellevue, wa store opened today and was taking a ton of reservations. hope to see some of those people on this thread soon!

can't believe other car companies haven't thought of this sooner. it's very similar to the apple experience. my wife and i sat in the back lounge that all white with an apple monitor, keyboard and mouse to configure your car.

jackhub | 5 november 2011

@discoducky
Other car companies contend with the rules and regulations that apply to internal combustion, gasoline storage, oil, etc. The Tesla model S is not only green, it is clean! They can put a store anywhere!

Mycroft | 5 november 2011

Just wait 'til they can offer test drives. Bet they sell out the second year by the end of June.

Denis Vincent | 5 november 2011

Tesla is able to set up "Showrooms" instead of " Dealerships" because they don't need; Sales people, the car is selling itself, they won't need huge warranty\service departments, the vehicle has 1\10th the moving parts of an ICE(age), they don't need umpteen service bays and mechanics to provide ongoing maintenance, they will never have an inventory of vehicles sitting on the lot and will never take ICE V's as trade ins. Yes, the car is clean, it deserves to be parked in a Showroom and not a garage!

Leofingal | 5 november 2011

The only advantage of having an "inventory" would be to see the actual paint on the car before buying. Sadly my visit to see the vehicle in Toronto didn't allow a look at the paint choices (they actually don't have a store yet, so it was just out in the middle of a mall like space). Hopefully they get a store (or even better maybe one at Niagara falls, which is much closer to me).

Larry Chanin | 5 november 2011

@Mycroft
"Just wait 'til they can offer test drives. Bet they sell out the second year by the end of June."

Hi,

That sure would be nice, but I assume you are taking a little literary license. I figure they are currently selling about 30 general production cars per workday. It would require more than 80 reservations per workday, spread over every workday of the year, to get to 20,000. Compressing 20,000 reservations by June...well. that would be astronomical.

Larry

Mycroft | 5 november 2011

Viral Larry, viral.

brianman | 5 november 2011

@Larry

All it takes is rental companise realizing that baseline-specced Model S would be quite a draw to consumers. ;)

brianman | 5 november 2011

companies*

STARR X | 5 november 2011

@Robert.Boston. Been mulling this investment for a while and got an early holiday bonus. I am assuming I will not get my car until the first half of 2013?

sarge7359 | 5 november 2011

@STARR X -- if you get a Signature series, you'll get it Q3 2012. But if you order up a regular S then the line is much longer. Prolly 2013. Signature is gonna be about 90k, I think.

Larry Chanin | 6 november 2011

@Mycroft & Brian,

I sincerely hope you're right, but such a rate would require selling $60,000+ cars as if they were iphones. I'll be happy if they can increase their reservation rate to equal next year's production target. Even that would required a tripling of the current rate.

Larry

michiganmodels | 6 november 2011

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 639 (November 4, 2011)
SSL 189 (October 5, 2011)
R 270 (June 1, 2011)
P 5,679 (November 4, 2011)

Canada
S 98 (November 4, 2011)
P 214 (November 1, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 99 (October 14, 2011)
P 510 (October 14, 2011)

Switzerland
S14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 13 (May 21, 2011)

Hong Kong
S 2 (April 27, 2011)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
S 9 (April 10, 2011)
P 10 (June 5, 2011)

Total: 7,749 - November 4, 2011

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

jackhub | 6 november 2011

Is 20,00 per year reasonable? What do we have as a reasonableness test? During the month of October about 950-1000 Model S were reserved. That was the first month after the public actually had some kind of 'hands-on' experience with the car- however limited that experience may have been. Two points do not a trend make, but lets work with that number. That is a going rate of about 12,000 per year. So, 20,000 would be an increase of about 50%. Is that increase reasonable? What might we attribute such an increaser to? Well, there will actually be cars in the stores. Actual buyers will be driving the cars around. There is likely to be a flurry of mediaq interest. This is likely to stimulate demand. 50%? Who knows. Is the 1,00 per month going rate a good base for a start? who knows. But I don't think 20,000 is unreasonable.

Mycroft | 6 november 2011

You just know the Sport version will be the demo car and the acceleration of that car is better than half the sports cars on the road!

The smoothness of the ride, the quietness, the unbelievable amount of storage available, the luxury, the high-tech, the ability to avoid gas pumps regardless of ability to pay for the gas. Think about it, the wealthy don't really care about the price of gas. But give them a way of avoiding that stinky gas pump...

Once the well-to-do get to actually drive these things, the reservation list is going to fill up fast!

jackhub | 6 november 2011

Actually, my rounding up was a litlle on the generous side. Still, a 67% increase over current monthly levels is not unreasonable.

Robert.Boston | 6 november 2011

Mercedes sold 24,449 E-class cars in October 2011 -- that one month! http://www.emercedesbenz.com/autos/mercedes-benz/corporate-news/mercedes...

BMW sold 30,954 5-series vehicles in March 2011. https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/pressclub/p/us/pressDetail.html?outputCha...

Audi appears to see about ~10k A6s per month. http://www.audiworld.com/news/11/aug-sales-global/

So, annual volumes of the E-class + 5-series + A6 appear to be about 800,000 per year. Tesla carving out 2.5% market share -- 20,000 per year -- doesn't seem unreasonable.

Larry Chanin | 6 november 2011

Hi Robert,

Good information.

Do you think that Tesla can sell out the second year by the end of June without the advertising budgets of those companies?

Larry

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