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Resale value

Resale value

I have tried to figure out whether or not the battery pack life will increase in a significant way in the next few years. If Tesla, or even another car company upon seeing what a success the Model S is, develops a 400 or 500 mile range battery within the next 4-6 years, what does this mean for us in terms of the value of our 2013 Model S? Any thoughts?

Brian H | 18 november 2012

Well, rate of decline declines over time, so the experience of Roadster owners that about 2%/yr would leave you at about 90%, slowly declining to 70% over another 10 yrs. That would be about the same as a 60 kwh. battery, currently. So it would have about half the range of the new battery, and would be declining more slowly.

Hard to say how the market would evaluate that, but say 1/3 the new battery's value (battery only).

jbunn | 18 november 2012

I really hope that tesla uses the S form factor over a long period, and that future packs are compatable. I would hate to not be able to replace it in 15 years.

BYT | 19 november 2012

@jbunn@hotmail.com, I really believe the Model S frame and form factor will be the staple for all the cars going forward. It's just too perfect with the CoG the way it is and convenience for battery replacement and added safety. I ask myself, why would they change it?

I can't come up with a valid answer to why they would.

lajollan | 19 november 2012

Can batteries be switched out easily? I have heard conflicting answers from Tesla reps.

BYT | 19 november 2012

In about 5 to 15 minutes, prop the car up, drop the battery down and swap.

Volker.Berlin | 19 november 2012

BTW, here is a very similar thread that is only a few months old. May be interesting to read:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/resale-value

Brian H | 19 november 2012

In a volume fully robotized operation, it supposedly could take less than a minute. Nothing like the Roadster, which almost has to be partially disassembled.

jbunn | 19 november 2012

BYT,

Well, the batteries could always get smaller, and not fit. Say, if they were narrower for example. Or the voltage or amperage could change and not be compatable. At some point it must change. Everything does. Eventualy, the Tesla will have a 1 pound cold fusion power source the size of a grapefruit that will power the car for a million miles. (OK, I made that up), but I think that in 20 years, the future we are experiencing here might look kind of quaint... : )

mrspaghetti | 19 november 2012

@jbunn

Twenty years from now we'll all seem like primitive, unfashionable dorks if history is any indication. But the Model S will still be a classic :)

Brian H | 19 november 2012

Yeah, titanium and CF will be as common as aluminum and plastic! Cars will drive themselves at 150 mph. And pharmacies will sell pixie dust!

I can hardly wait.

Assuming that rejuv kicks in in time ...

<8-\

jbunn | 19 november 2012

Mr Spaghetti. I completly agree. The Sigs should appreciate and get collector status like the 64-1/2 mustang ragtop. It is a beautiful car.

Brian. Saw a couple in the wild tonight. My wife says plural form is Teslae. Sounds right. Thoughts?

Tiebreaker | 20 november 2012

Tesle.

Brian H | 21 november 2012

Actually, Tesla was Serbian. So probably Teslaj? ;)

Tiebreaker | 21 november 2012

Tesle.

jbunn | 21 november 2012

I like the way Teslaj sounds.

I was thinking more about the way antenna changes with plural form to antennae in English.

lajollan | 21 november 2012

Price increase should help resale value for current reservation holders. Waiting to see how that looks before I consider finalizing.

Tiebreaker | 21 november 2012

Latin:
tesla, teslae (like nauta, nautae, a noun of masculine gender that changes by the 1st declension)

Serbian:
tesla, tesle

so: Tesla, Tesle

Tiebreaker | 21 november 2012

"Teslaj" may sound offensive...

DouglasR | 21 november 2012

Tiebreaker,

Nice touch, making it masculine (nauta, nautae, as opposed to amica, amicae).

Brian H | 22 november 2012

Hm, ja, I was thinking of Esperanto, and thought it had borrowed j from the Slavic/Balkan languages. Oh, well.

lolachampcar | 22 november 2012

I purchased a Zero DS9 in May of this year (first truly usable electric motorcycle). I'll trade it in on the MY13 DS which sports significant upgrades including the battery. I will loose my rear end when I do this.

If Tesla makes as many cars as they anticipate, there will be less demand in the secondary market. I read somewhere that BMW sells 11k Seven Series in the US a year so 20K cars world wide will be more than enough. I hope I am wrong but it would seem reasonable that Tesla would not outsell the Seven Series in its first full year. Then again, who would have forecast MT Car of the Year?

EV technology will march forward at a greater rate than ICE and thus I expect my Model S will depreciate more like a stone then a Seven Series. I guess this is another example of how the Tesla model is more like Apple then GM. That being said, the 85kw battery has an eight year warranty. Even a zero value at eight years makes the whole adventure more than worth it for me.

This is just my two cents worth. I hope I am wrong and the Model S follows the Roadster path. Plan for the worse and enjoy any upside has always worked for me.

lajollan | 22 november 2012

Has there been any Tesla comment on cost of replace batteries/

Brian H | 22 november 2012

TM projects 8% reduction per year in the cost of a kWh capacity. May result in cheaper battery for same size, or larger size for same price. Nobuddy nose.

jbunn | 22 november 2012

Bill,

I believe you are correct. Without us, the revolution wont happen, so im looking at it the same way. Its V1.0, but without buyers well never get to 2.0, 3.0, 4.0

Volker.Berlin | 23 november 2012

lajollan, here's the official statement. Not what you wanted to hear, though:

Given rapidly changing battery technology, it is impossible to accurately forecast the cost of future battery replacements.
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/facts

Brian H | 23 november 2012

Doesn't necessarily follow. It will be compared in price to ICE cars of the same vintage, favourably.

Koz | 23 november 2012

Resale value will be determined by several unknowns: long term reliability, long term viability of Tesla, acceptance of EVs, gas prices, and replacement battery costs or remaining battery capacity.

I believe better, cheaper batteries will mean higher value for future used Model S'es since they are designed for easy replacement and assuming they are made available for it. Better batteries and time will bring more consumers into the new and used EV markets.

Brian H | 23 november 2012

The upcoming price hike doesn't hurt, either! ;) Many more to come!

lajollan | 25 november 2012

Anxiously awaiting price hike. I hope that it is high enough to give us res holders instant equity. 10K would be nice :)

Brian H | 26 november 2012

Should make these forums really *interesting* for a while!!

lajollan | 26 november 2012

@ Brian H

Absolutely! As a former 60kW person, I was on the wrong end of the "free" Supercharger debate and resolution. Now I will be spending 8k more for the 85kW battery. So Tesla owes me! :)