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Something very exciting coming...

Something very exciting coming...

Really exciting @TeslaMotors announcement coming on Thursday. Am going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way.

Read it online: http://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/316260319360061440

Care to speculate?

(Thanks Erik)

Bart84 | 1 april 2013

If I am correct, 2PM PST equals 10pm or 22h in the Netherlands.

Maybe someone who is better known with converting those time zones can confirm if this is true, or, if it isn't, provide the Dutch who are interested in tuning in on the live webcast with the correct time?

I am really curious what the announcement will bring!

Kleist | 1 april 2013

Netherlands is 9 hours ahead... Should be 23h or 11PM

Bart84 | 1 april 2013

Thanks,

I guess I am not the only one very curious about the announcement ;-)

Though, I do not hope it will be a takeover by a large car manufacturer (Toyota or Daimler-Benz)...

All kinds of possibilities have been running through my head since the initial announcement, though I haven't been able to put my finger on what the most likely outcome will be.

Guess I have to be patient, not my strongest point ;-)

Kleist | 1 april 2013

A takeover would not fit the tweet. After the guidance came yesterday my bet is on electricy storage...

mwillmsn | 1 april 2013

I think a number of recent events point to a clear announcement tomorrow.... before stating what I think they will announce here are some of the data points I am using to inform my point of view:

  • In the most recent earnings call Elon stated that the NYT review was originally going to be about a step increase in the Supercharger network / technology
  • Based on the announcement yesterday, every Model S is now shipping with the ability to utilize the Supercharger network without any additional Hardware
  • Elon's stated goal is to really push forward the adoption of EVs and he has stated that charging is a major barrier to that goal
  • Elon stated he was going to put his money where his mouth is in a very major way

    So my guess is that Tesla is going to announce that they are going to DRAMATICALLY increase the density of the supercharger network. Rather than superchargers being about 150 miles apart, they will be more like 30 miles apart. I am not sure how Elon is going to put his money behind this as there are a number of ways he could do this, including doing a personal loan to Tesla, spinning out the Supercharger technology into a new business that he then does a capital infusion into, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if it involves a partnership with companies like Target, Costco, McDonalds, etc. as those would be logical Supercharging locations to get the density up fast.

  • July10Models | 1 april 2013

    Level 2 chargers at a national hotel chain and iron man pays for installation and free juice to model s. stark enterprises gets a commission on Model S owner reservations which covers the free juice and the capitalize installation costs.

    cbentinck | 1 april 2013

    Almost certainly supercharging station partnership.
    They have not be able to find locations fast enough so partnering with someone is great financial sense as they will get the space and possibly part of the charging hardware subsidized by partner who will benefit from Tesla visitors waiting 30 mins to charge car.
    Money where my mouth is must refer to his mouthing off at NYT and now going to deliver...
    Just one guy's opinion.

    weeandthewads | 1 april 2013

    Second manufacturing facility?

    Kleist | 1 april 2013

    2nd facility? The one they got is good for 500k cars a year...

    trydesky | 1 april 2013

    I agree with those who mentioned a partnership for SC stations. Do you guys have Cracker-Barrel on the west coast? They are all over the major highways hear on the east coast. It's a sitdown restaurant, taking about 1 hour to eat a meal...perfect!

    portia | 1 april 2013

    My guess is related to SC network, a great increase in number/density/speed will fit the "put the money where his mouth is" statement.

    syddent | 1 april 2013

    I am guessing that it is Tesla is now making profit. TSLA jumped %16 on the annoucement today.

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    @Syddent

    Good guess, but given the official press release it is more a fact...

    @mwillmsn

    I think you are a little bit exaggerating about the possible SC density: decreasing the average distance between SC's from 150 miles to 30 miles means that for every SC planned (150/30)^2-2 = 23 SC's are added. That seems a bit to much too me...

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    *That seems a bit to much too me --> That seems a bit too much to me

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    @ Bart84

    How about decreasing the average distance between the SuperChargers from 150 miles to 100 miles?

    Brian H | 2 april 2013

    I'm afraid I have guessed what the announcement will be. TM is going to establish a large combo solar and battery storage "farm", and attempt to run the Fremont factory on it.

    I don't think success is one of the possible outcomes of that.

    Brian H | 2 april 2013

    2:11 a.m., PST.

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    @Benz

    You're a fellow Dutchman right?

    The ideal density is dependent on a lot of factors, e.g.:

    - city or countryside
    - average distance traveled
    - hot/warm/average climate
    - # of roads between destinations (larger number of routes means more possible routings between destinations, hence in order for not demanding a Tesla driver to take a large detour more SC's are needed with variability in location)
    - traffic density
    - average time per car spend occupying a SC (average service time in queueing theory)
    - # Tesla cars suited for SC on the road
    - etc. etc.

    Therefore it makes not much sense to talk about a mean distance between SC's since this would be oversimplifying.

    I stated earlier the option to make a separate business of the SC network, either fully owned by Tesla Motors or owned by a joint venture between Tesla Motors and SolarCity.

    However, it would not surprise me if the announcement considers a strategic alliance with another car company, e.g. Daimler-Benz or Toyota. Though I would be understandable and has some advantages in the form of reducing overall risks for Tesla, I would not be too happy if this would be the case. I'd rather see Tesla Motors succeed on its own and disrupt the car industry in a major way.

    But we'll see what Elon has up his sleeve. Eleven hours remaing until the announcement and I can't wait....

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    @ Bart84

    Yes I am a fellow Dutchman.

    But more important is that we both (and many more) are fan of Elon Musk and his vision for humanity.

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    Sorry,

    I like your enthusiasm but I've never considered myself to be a fan. In my opinion a fan refers to someone not thinking by him-/herself and belong to a herd with groupthinking as the main pitfall.

    I think for myself and if I agree with Elon, which until now has been the case most of the time, then I agree, though being a fan of Elon in my opinion refers too much to listening what he has to say and uncritically making that your opinion as well.

    What I do have great respect for is his perseverance and (calculated) risk taking. It may be not his vision (sustainable transport and energy, making life multi-planetary) that is unique, but his ability to build the road to success for this vision.

    But as a reminder, until electric transport is really the main mode of transport and until life is actually multi-planetary, al lot of work still has to be done before success can be claimed.

    But this was off-topic...

    Andre-nl | 2 april 2013

    All the people expecting a partnership forget that it is not really compatible with the 'put money where mouth is' part of the announcement.

    Also, many people tend to think: "hmmm, what would I like most?" and post their christmas present wish list to Santa Elon. I don't think he is going to hand out any presents. The Model S is selling itself very well, there is no business sense in that.

    The press would yawn at the news of Tesla installing chargers in hotels. It wouldn't justify a conference call.

    Brian, a solar powered NUMMI plant was my initial thought too, although the battery storage part seems a bit expensive. A factory the size of NUMMI has a continuously metered connection. They pay spot price for their electricity. It would not make any economic sense to store expensive solar energy (electricity prices usually peak during the day) and then use it at night when electricity is cheap. Better to sell it during the day an buy it back later at a lower price.

    However, when solar power is a large chunk of your generating capacity (like in Germany), this is no longer true and actually the price dips mid-day. I believe this is not yet the case in California.

    As for the solar powered NUMMI plant, that fails the 'exciting' and 'very major way' part of the tweet. Ikea and Walmart already made the same move, so it would hardly make enough of a splash to justify the noise.

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    @ Bart84

    Fans do think themselves and they do have their opinion. Fans are not something like sheep. I do not think that your definition/description of a fan is correct.

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    @Benz,

    Fair enough, either way, I prefer not to be categorized in any group by another person whatever that person's definition of that group is.

    I hope you understand this.

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    @ Bart84

    Yes, I understand that.

    The point is that many people do appreciate what Elon Musk is doing.

    Please do continue to share your thoughts with the rest of us.

    dborn @nsw.au | 2 april 2013

    How about right hand drive production? Opens up Japan, India, Australia, South Africa, Singapore, Hong Kong, England.

    vouteb | 2 april 2013

    iI don't that its not something to with Tesla Motors the company directly, like investment or strategic alliance.
    It would potentially difficult to flag this in advance for a publicly quoted company.

    dstiavnicky | 2 april 2013

    I hope Elon sold Solar City to someone with deep pockets with an agreement to partner on Supercharger production and management. Then infuse Tesla with $$ to go with a second shift and pay DOE earlier.

    Andre-nl | 2 april 2013

    dstiavnicky, a Supercharger is essentially a dozen Model S chargers in parallel. There is nothing preventing Tesla from cranking out a few more of those. Production and/or cost of the hardware is no problem. Most of the work is negotiating the sites and getting the permissions and grid connections.

    Is it hope that makes all Teslanauts convinced that the announcement cannot be anything else than an accelerated roll out of the supercharger network?

    But the expansion of the superchargers is already on the roadmap for quite some time, and most of the public would be completely uninterested by such an announcement. A waste of time to tune in to the conference call.

    And striking a deal with a partner to make them partly pay the bill is the opposite of 'putting my money where my mouth is'.

    Maybe they'll start an EV racing competition. Or a prize for the fastest time on the Top Gear track. To learn Jeremy Clarkson a lesson.

    Go_Peddle_4_me | 2 april 2013

    @mdherbst

    I think you may be right! It's just not a lucky Model S buyer though. Elon is going to put up his own money to go into space to the ISS, or maybe it's just the GenIII announcement.

    roseland67 | 2 april 2013

    I would think if this had anything to do w/Space X, Elon would have
    Announced it on a Space X Forum.
    Definately About Tesla,
    now that Model S is profitable,
    Elon will put personal funding into Gen III
    For an earlier roll out, say, June 2016

    drripps | 2 april 2013

    Elon tweeted "you never know..." In response to someone asking "supercharger network=awesome. What happened to universal replacement battery pack? Pull into station? Automated changeout?"

    DonPedro | 2 april 2013

    @Liz

    If you read the Edmunds article, there are a few things you might want to notice:

    - The Dept of Energy is allegedly sponsoring one of the two NASCAR Tesla's (nothing out of the ordinary?)
    - The R&D is supposedly being conducted at a Czechoslovakian facility (Czechoslovakia being the central European country that ceased existing almost 25 years ago)
    - The R&D facility is called Blazen Dubna, which quite nicely translates into "April's Fool"

    Need I go on? ;-)

    L8MDL | 2 april 2013

    dborn - right hand drive is already scheduled for a January roll-out according to tweets on Elon's site.

    Brian H | 2 april 2013

    Andre;
    series, not parallel, to achieve the higher voltage, AFAIK.

    And I think the idea would be to run Nummi/Fremont like an isolated cottage, totally off-grid. Elon is on record as saying a solar farm 100x100 miles in area would power the country. Battery storage using anything from retired LiIon battery packs to specialized bulk designs would be employed. It would be 'economic' only by comparison with dealing with CA's increasingly insane rate structure.

    I sure hope not.

    Brian H | 2 april 2013

    Pedro;
    Have you figgered out what 'Lidocad-daleoxide' is yet? Never heard of that compound. Another version of dihydrogen-monoxide, AKA water?

    mikeadams | 2 april 2013

    My guess is that they have already secretly installed about 18-20 superchargers from the East to West coast and they will already be ready to go after the announcement.

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    Would you consider that to be "in v major way"?

    Brian H | 2 april 2013

    A lot of peoples' wish-bubbles are going to be popped.

    herkimer | 2 april 2013

    Let's see..... What does Elon find exciting?
    I think Elon gets excited by launching things. Like rockets and electric cars. And he launches these things with great precision -- the precision, in fact, of a rocket scientist par excellence. Very mindful of timing, and appropriate thrust! I would say that today's announcement will be a launch, the kind that Elon finds exciting! Or a new thruster, for a launch already underway, or both! Not so much for the money in iteslf, but to reach "orbit" at the perfect altitude to foster and engage the rapidly developing capacity of the best tech ever seen for energy use and transport on the earth!

    Benz | 2 april 2013

    That's for sure. But there must be this one thing that is worth to announce it like today. Otherwise, if it would not be that important, then he would have done it via Twitter.

    dbfish | 2 april 2013

    On March 29th, Project 100 launched, and purchased 100 Model S's for a test car share project in Las Vegas. Here's the announcement:

    http://goproject100.com/

    And more here:

    http://tech.co/downtown-project-100-...teslas-2013-04

    If this isn't Elon's big news, then it's pretty big regardless - since the cars were just ordered, and not delivered, they didn't even count towards Q1's profitability!!

    dbfish | 2 april 2013
    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    @imherkimer

    I hope you are aware that this is the Tesla Motors forum, which, except for Elon Musk, don't have much in common...

    I stick with my original Supercharger idea, since that will make it able to exploit network externalities, a strategy not uncommon to Silicon Valley businesses ;-)

    Bart84 | 2 april 2013

    Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk
    "Today's Tesla announcement is actually the 2nd in a 5 part trilogy (love Douglas Adams)"

    Though this is rather cryptical to me (am not aware with books from Douglas Adams), this might give a hint is someone knows what could be the 1st in this so called '5 part trilogy'.

    Stil a few hours left for speculation ;-)

    mlaiken | 2 april 2013

    Wow it's been so long since I read The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. Any ideas what he may be referring to?

    DonPedro | 2 april 2013

    If the SC network were the first announcement, then the common theme could be "stuff that makes the EV work better than ICE".

    So what is the next announcement that could contribute? Something to do with battery business model? Or with electricity distribution/acquisition? Inductive charging?

    StephRob | 2 april 2013

    Isn't a trilogy by definition three parts . . . ?

    PaceyWhitter | 2 april 2013

    That was the joke (by Douglas Adams)

    The five part trilogy was:

    The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
    The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
    Life, the Universe and Everything
    So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish
    Mostly Harmless

    JoeFee | 2 april 2013

    Today Elon announces (on his nickel) that Costco and Walmart will put Solar City panels on their roof’s & a Tesla SuperCharger at all their stores…worldwide!

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