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Tesla as an opportunity of investment

Tesla as an opportunity of investment

I belive that all people that are reading this post think that Tesla is a great Car Company, the most advanced, the most innoative and the most oriented at the future.
This is the reason for which I'm evaluating tesla as an opportunity of investment and i would like to discuss with you about this.

Brian H | 28 mei 2013

Now $7, about $104. That's about 25% in three days.

Vawlkus | 28 mei 2013

This is starting to get crazy. I was expecting this stock price at the end of the year, not before June! Makes me wonder if we could hit 200 before next year -.-

Tesla Lover | 28 mei 2013

simply amazing... i'm up of 190 %

HeebieGeebie | 28 mei 2013

Wow. I wanted to buy some shares at around $50 just before the Q1 earnings announcement, I missed the opportunity because I needed to send off a form to deal in US stocks. Within the few days it took me to send of the form the price jumped to $80+, I was a little frustrated. But just looking at the future of Tesla gave me confidence to invest none the less, and I'm glad I did! Bring on the supercharger announcement! I can't wait for the Model X to come out, it looks fantastic!

Tesla Lover | 28 mei 2013

110 now.... wtf tesla did you use the nos ?

baku | 28 mei 2013

After Supercharger announcement cost will be more than $130, e.g. expect to see > $130 by end of this week.

wcalvin | 28 mei 2013

A TSLA price driver this week is a series of Tesla events in the CT-NY-NJ area. Lots of fund managers live thereabouts. Not to mention journalists.

Tesla Lover | 29 mei 2013

a really big wave of optimism smash on tesla :)

wcalvin | 29 mei 2013

May 29, 2013 Model S Tech Talk – New York City
May 30, 2013 Model S Tech Talk – New York City
May 30, 2013 Model S Tech Talk – Roosevelt Field
June 6, 2013 Model S Tech Talk – Natick Mall

Tesla Lover | 30 mei 2013

retesting 110 $

Kma6 | 30 mei 2013

I use TD Ameritrade, and my brokerage has no more shares available for shorts to sell. I have been long the stock since $28, but I am just curious about how much more shares are still out there. Can you guys tell us what brokerage you use and what's the shares availability for the shorts at your brokerage firm? Thanks!

Brian H | 30 mei 2013

It's down a buck now. Buy, buy, buy‼‼

TeslaRocks | 31 mei 2013

I think the short squeeze is starting to wind down, now. It will probably try to test the high again a few times, establishing lower highs, but I think the trend is starting to reverse downwards for the next month at least. At some point it will drop to about $40 or $50 before consolidating and eventually start rise in more of a normal manner by the end of the year. Just thought I'd post my prediction to see how far off I am. Cheers.

jk2014 | 31 mei 2013

I think it's not right to call it a single short squeeze. I think there have been three thus far. It started April 1st. 30s-50s. Then after the Q1 results 60s-90s. Followed by offering/DOE pay off 90s-110s.

Each squeeze had a separate short position "cohort" based on different set of assumptions as the information came out.

I feel the short position will remain high because the current thought is 100 is way too high and no new announcements will change that. All the big announcements/developments have been done and nothing will top them for a while.

Through to the end of this month and for a month or so after, might see a steady decline in volume and stock price. Probably pick back up after Q2 results if not then, Q3.

AcuraKidd | 31 mei 2013

Man, I just bought 95 shares @$103 yesterday thinking that I got a good deal, and now I check and they're declining at such a rapid space, already at $98

To the experts out there, should I cut my loses now and just sell or give it a few more days?

jk2014 | 31 mei 2013

And yes, Elon admitting he's not dating Cameron Diaz did hurt the stock today. That pairing would've pushed it to at least 113.33.

Acurakidd -- it might drop a bit more in the short term. However, in 2-5 years could see 100%-300%+ on your investment. Keep dollar cost averaging. This is a "winner" mid-long term.

AcuraKidd | 31 mei 2013

What does dollar cost averaging mean?

jk2014 | 31 mei 2013

Put some hard earned cash in every month for the next year. Ex, purchase a $100 dollars worth for till June 2013 (or however long you want really). The idea is your average cost per share will be lower over that time you buy (weather the highs and lows). Good strategy to get more for your money.

Brian H | 31 mei 2013

Down to 97! Buy, buy, buy‼

AcuraKidd | 31 mei 2013

I'm not sure this stock still has any momentum left to keep climbing. There's been lots of great news surrounding this company lately, and you'd think that would cause the stock to keep climbing, but its declined to below $100 at a very scary and rapid pace.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AcuraKidd | 31 mei 2013

@jk2014, can you recommend a good broker, I'm currently using sharebuilder and its costing me $6.95 per trade

SamO | 31 mei 2013

@AcuraKidd,

Most of the people that post here believe in Tesla LONG TERM. Short term share price changes are a recipe for trading disaster.

If you think Tesla will be a success in the middle and long-term future, then follow the advice of jk2014 and dollar cost average.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

tcason | 1 juni 2013

Im confident in the long term of the stock as i have introduced my 11 yr old daughter to ivesting with this stock as her first venture.
I made an agreement that I would invest as much as she did to keep her more sure of the choice we made together. Yes it is small in dollar amount, but enough to have her realize what an informed, researched choice can do in the long run.
She is very excited to see the gains so far, despite the dip, as I have told her there would be with any investment.
looking forard to further gains down the road!

uselesslogin | 2 juni 2013

I am hoping that something drops the stock back to $50 or so. I really don't feel I can buy more at this high price but would love to pick up more at $50. Ah well I bought at like $40 so it is officially the fastest appreciating stock I have ever bought thanks to the short squeezes.

Tesla Lover | 3 juni 2013

why this flexion ?

Tesla Lover | 8 juni 2013

re-testing 110 $ ?

HeebieGeebie | 20 juni 2013

On the way back up.... an analyst predicted a levelling out value of $109, that seems reasonable to me. Maybe it is quite overvalued at present, but I believe that in the medium term Tesla will prove it's value. I see it as the Apple of the automotive industry.

Brian H | 20 juni 2013

As some analysts have commented, there is no rational standard way to "value" TM stock yet; it's way too early in the company's life cycle. It has avoided all of the pitfalls to date, and has various competitive advantages which it may profit from handsomely in the medium term.

IMO, Elon's in-your-face disregard for "market studies" and laser focus on product design and quality is the "secret sauce".

uselesslogin | 20 juni 2013

Brian H,

FWIW we should be careful about using TM to mean Tesla when talking about stock. There are lots of practical ways to value TM stock. Toyota has been in business for a long time. TSLA on the other hand...

Newampster | 20 juni 2013

My techie son-in-law told me about Tesla's unique position in the car market. I researched the stock and bought at $42, have added, harvested profits and added again. In addition to being a great stock, they make a great car. So, I now have a MS on order for delivery late July. What pays for this? Tesla stock! Isn't that fun? Despite today's market crash, just before the big announcement, I am still confident that Tesla stock will perform over the long haul. The gain has not covered the full price of the car, but there is still another month for it to go up. If it hits that projected $109, I get a free Model S! Isn't that fun?

Bubba2000 | 21 juni 2013

Tesla has the potential to disrupt the auto market with its design expertise, technology and manufacturing facilities:
1. Design is being optimized to reduce manufacturing cost. Automation, robots are being added. Reduce rework by increasing precision of assembly. Produce 25,000 cars/shift/year. 2 shifts and 50,000 Model S can be produced. Excluding the battery pack, the simple design car could cost about what a Honda Accord would cost = $25k. Even battery pack costs will come down with volume and tech maturity to $20K. ASP = $45k+25% gross margin for the 85kw model. That is mass market pricing at the mid end.
2. Rapid deployment of Supercharger tech. Forget the battery swap contraption. Free charing nationwide.
3. Rapid deployment of Model X and produce 50,000/year with 2 shifts. Cut costs. Free supercharger use.
4. Introduce hi end 500 mile battery. People pay for range. Panasonic is already shipping the batteries. Add fancy features that people want like smart cruise control, collision avoidance, park assist. Part of tech package. Got to pimp it up like S550, BMW 750, A8.
5. Tesla should have raised $1.5B at the expense of the shorts. We will get another chance.

The company does not need Gen III to sell 100,000 cars at $55-65k if the battery is adequate... 85 KW-hr is the minimum. With limited resources, Elon needs to concentrated at the decisive aspects of the business. Forget wasting $2M for a battery swap station. Most people charge at home anyway. 20 min at the supercharger is no big deal... especially of free! Why would I want to mess with a replacement battery and then worry about getting the original back? Want to keep my life simple, while the car is charging and I am having a snack after 3 hours of driving.

jk2014 | 21 juni 2013

Bubba2000 -- well said. Swap is a marketing statement to the uninitiated that electric is better than gas and will be in your future. It is an important bridge to high speed supercharging not yet here. Swap is not the end game as you already know. There might be other long term strategic advantages elon is thinking about setting swat stations up....

NomoDinos | 22 juni 2013

It has been fascinating reading this thread from the beginning until now. Kudos to all the sage investors who got in early, rode out the rough course and broke the bank. If it gets into the $80 range, I'm going to load up and hold it.

Artem | 22 juni 2013

Ladies and Gentlemen,

In behalf of State fund innovative technologies of Republic Kazakhstan I pray to provide the list of all necessary documents for conclusion of a contract and opening of official representation of Tesla Motors Kazakhstan on the territory of our republic.

Соoperation with our republic will provide your Company not only additional outputs to our market, but also it will give you possibilities for delivering of your electric Cars to following countries:

Russia (free export from Kazakhstan in terms of Custom Union)
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
China

All these countries are neighbors of our Republic.

Through state support of our project we are planning 20% reducing of car number with petrol and diesel motors and replacing them with electric Cars Tesla. We are also interested in Fast Charging Stations for electric Cars, we want to know the cost of spare parts and frame elements. If the personal meeting is necessary for conclusion of contract, I ask you to give date and time. To business ethics and partner I beg you to have talks about opening of official representation in Republic Kazakhstan directly with me.

Yours Faithfully,

Project Specialist

Brian H | 22 juni 2013

Bubba;
You persist in thinking the swap stations are a big expense and drag on production. Their costs are trivial by comparison, and an excellent marketing expenditure to drive demand even higher. Much better than spending the money on TV ads, etc., which is the usual.

MichaelC | 22 juni 2013

Opinions on how the battery swapping option will affect the Tesla stock now?

BTW - Though not as exciting as the recent run on Tesla stock, I have available a related opportunity for building out solar for convenience stores, some of which will be adding solar-powered chargers for EVs. Anyone interested in a low-risk secured investment contact me. Looking for up to $150k, offering 10% return guaranteed for 1 year real-estate secured loan. Capital need date is 7/15. 215-874-7182

TeslaRocks | 22 juni 2013

I was wondering... I read a few times on these boards that some of you were offered something, a percentage perhaps, to lend your shares to short sellers I assume. I have no experience with this and have never been offered, so could someone explain more about this and what you mean exactly. Thanks.

TeslaRocks | 22 juni 2013

Elon tweeted partial recall, in case you missed it.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/partial-recall

Tesla Lover | 22 juli 2013

f**ck goldman sachs.....

Brian H | 22 juli 2013

TR;
What a short seller does is issue a guarantee to supply shares at the current price (when he first shorts the stock) at a certain time in the future. When that time arrives, he must now supply what was promised; if the stock has risen, he loses money by buying at market. So he asks for other holders to loan him some shares to cover his contracted sales. He is still counting on prices dropping. He is paying interest (high rates) to back this hope/wish/wager. If prices don't drop, he's stuck with a double hit, the price rise difference plus the interest on the borrowed shares.

TeslaRocks | 24 juli 2013

Thanks for the explanation, Brian. The mechanics of shorting are largely hidden, but I think it is important to know how it works if you lend your shares.

jk2014 | 15 oktober 2013

The samsung (also panasonic) deal to build dedicated battery factories is huge. Increased battery production not only will be significant for vehicle production, but also for their energy storage business for residential and commercial spaces.

By 2017 30% tax incentive virtually disappear leaving it difficult for solar to compete with utilities on cost. However, Solarcity will continue to beat utility rates with a cheap battery storage solution. How? They will have amassed 1 million customers by 2017. Each will have battery storage included in lease contract, or will be retrofitted with a battery storage without raising/changing lease rate. Tesla will be providing those battery storage units discount unavailable to the competition. That is potentially hundreds of thousands of battery packs to be produced in the next 5-10 years just for solarcity alone. How will that affect the bottom line, future revenue projections, current market valuation?

Not only will Solarcity snap up current utility customers right from under their nose in the next five years, Tesla will be right there with them to do it. Comparable utility companies (where the sun is good) are valued around the 20 billion mark. Solarcity is currently around 4b. Again, how does/will this reflect on the current/future valuation of Telsa?

Energy storage is by far the most significant business to emerge from Tesla motors. I feel it will have to spin off a separate company in order to deal with the magnitude. As far as investment opportunity, Tesla's current valuation should easily double in the next 2-3 years. Beyond that, I feel much much more if it can produce energy storage systems to meet the enormous latent demand...

Brian H | 15 oktober 2013

There's a problem surfacing with storage etc.: having your cake (full grid access on demand) and eating it (substituting storage/renewables), too.

RanjitC | 15 oktober 2013

@ Brian H My dream is to go off the grid altogether and stop paying unionised linesmen 150k + benefits a year. Doctors are now earning 150k a year. My highest daily usage of electricity was 91 kwh , in 2009 with 7 tons of a/c running 24hrs a day. The 85 kwh battery can handle 99% of people's needs including cloudy days if you have a big enough solar array.

jk2014 | 15 oktober 2013

I failed to mention Solarcity will own all those highly recyclable batteries as well. Can refurbish at a low cost and use again. Same goes for the solar system. This is why it is so important to raise as much funds and scale as fast as humanly possible right now, exactly what is happening. Execution is spectacular. Solarcity will establish the battery storage market for tesla to fill. End state is to create a "grid free" distributed energy solution (and I think they currently exceeding their own timelines and milestone objectives.)

Bubba2000 | 16 oktober 2013

Tesla have been one great, and scary, investment. It was scary when I started buying most of my shares at $35-40. Piled in more than I should have. Could not sleep and I was waking up at 3 am. Sold 20% at 107 so I could sleep better. Have to keep my mouth shut, lest I get sent to the funny farm!

However, when I drive my 85P/Pano, I feel much better. It is a very good car. Outside looks great. The interior is minimalistic and not plush like a hi end Lexus, but feels comfortable. Park assist was not available, but I got used to the size and it ok without it. With time Tesla will improve and add features like smart cruise, collision avoidance, etc. AWD should be fun to drive. Without too many chargers around, a 500 mile battery would be a reason for me to upgrade.

I think that Tesla will be able to manufacture 100,000/year rate by 2015 end, with $90+K ASP, 25+% gross margin. Supercharger and geographic expansion will drive the demand. They are already producing at the rate of 700 cars/week.

Tesluthian | 16 oktober 2013

Let's not forget, the Fremont EV plant is shipping partially assembled units to the European Tilberg plant for final assembly. That means the Euro-EVs may be zipping through Fremont faster than people realize, leaving more production time for fully assembled EVs sold in America. I'm reading about some large production numbers, significantly past estimates.

jk2014 | 16 oktober 2013

If Elon is thinking first principles as I assume he is, he understand energy storage is the link between production and consumption. If he works from this energy storage premise, I feel we haven't even scratched the surface of what is to come in terms of growth and valuation. There are endless growth opportunities across multiple industries (nearly all) stemming from Elon's energy storage business.

I keep hearing this is a cult stock, it's a momentum stock, it's this, it's that... all just shots in the dark is reasoning why the stock price/valuation is what it is.

The truth is people see the writing on the wall. People see Tesla/solarcity (everything else Elon works on) as the future. The stock price is what it is, because people want in NOW for what it will be for decades to come. Not 1, 2, or even 5 years. Decades. People aren't looking at production numbers in 2014, 2015, or 2017 even... people are seeing numbers a decade out and beyond. Just look at the growth in sales of the Model S... their first car built from the ground up from a new car company, has outsold all the majors in the same price range... when in the last 50 years has that happened? When has that ever happened in the automobile industry in America? This will be same with the Model X, and continue with the Model E and all vehicles after. The growth is exponential. Add in the developments with the battery tech (energy storage business) that no one else in the world has commercialized like tesla... and something special, unique, and once of a lifetime is happening. This is is why the stock is where it's at and continue to rise. Same with Solarcity. Solarcity has nearly doubled every year, year over year, since it's inception in 2006. And it's projecting to do the same for years to come. Come on, that's incredible. People want in now to be apart of the heights these historic companies (and more broadly energy production/consumption revolution) will go. They are an investment in the most pure sense of the word and that's what the talking heads/critics don't get.

jk2014 | 16 oktober 2013

Energy energy storage mandate for utility companies coming...

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24316359/california-poised-adopt-...

dkingsland | 20 oktober 2013

I got a real chuckle out of reading the beginning of this thread back in February. "Shares are $28, what should I do?" If only I'd known then what I know now. I could have bought my Model S on share profits alone. Oh well...

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