too many unknowns....
1. when will they start manufacturer of Production models;
2. how many Signatures and Production holders have cancelled/converted to Model S;
3. how fast will Tesla Ramp to manufacture;
4. mostly, how is the Beta Testing going (if started);
5. when will Tesla "reveal" the production models;
6. how many non-US reservations -- Signature and Production are there and how will Tesla prioritize these due to shipping time?
7. are there going to be supply-chain issues for unique components;
Anyone can guess. However, Tesla Changed the Web-site to "new reservations will be delivered in 2016 about 14K in the P reservations for the US. The better the Beta Test goes, and manufacturing quality testing goes the sooner. My expectation is September,2015 for my 9K reservation at best.
13,017 here and, realistically, I fear I'll be very fortunate if my X ends up as next year's Christmas present.
I'm just over 10,000 and my only expectation for delivery is before the end of 2015. When I reserved the website said Summer 2015, so given there has been a one quarter delay that would put it at Fall 2015 if everything else maintains the same schedule. I am hoping for November delivery, but expect in the worst case scenario that Tesla will make a big December push much like they have with the Model S P85D. As aljjr2 said, there are still many unknowns and it's really just a guess at this point.
I'm in agreement with the previous posts. I'm 13,3xx and I'm crossing my fingers for Christmas 2015. I feel confident (at this point at least) I'd have it by end of Q1 2016, but I would really like to not go through an additional winter in my front wheel drive sedan.
First Soonday in Soonvember.
No, delayed till Whenuary.
I'm expecting mine on the first of Octember.
@modelx:It sounds like Tesla is already building about 1200 cars a week with the expectation that this will grow to 2,000 by the end of 2015. Assuming that they ramp up from zero to 1000 MX a week during the 3rd quarter, you should expect yours in late November or early December barring any further slips. That will still leave them with enough capacity to build more than 50,000 MS sedans.
Don't be put off by the sarcastic remarks. These people have been waiting for an average of 7 years for their MX. They are understandably beginning to lose patience. I, on the other hand, have received a personal message from Jerome Guillen recognizing my reservation. You can trust me.
I am probably the lone individual who expects Tesla Motord to deliver ~20,000 of the Model X, as a minimum quantity, during 2015.
I think production would begin slowly. A small handful of cars, twenty or less, would be delivered in July 2015 at an official launch event. But those and others, unseen, would have begun production in June 2015 or a month earlier, I think.
The production line would start at 100 per week and gradually double output. 100, 200, 400, then 800 per week to finish the year. This is a rampup over the course of 28-32 weeks or so. Thus, if Tesla Motors can reach 800 per week with only 12 weeks remaining, they can blow past 10,000 deliveries well before the end of the year.
I have signature reservation #1225, what is your best guess for delivery?
Big delivery push at the end of September. Maybe.