Unlocking The Mystery Of Tesla's Model 3 Ramp

Unlocking The Mystery Of Tesla's Model 3 Ramp

A list of interesting points by timeline:
* Early Model 3s were not produced on the automated assembly line but were assembled by hand in the “beta” or “pilot” shop.
* Start-up and commissioning of the assembly line at Fremont did not happen until later in 2017, possibly as late as December.
* During January and February of 2018, model 3 production was less than 500 cars per week. It is likely that battery production at the Gigafactory was still the primary bottleneck.
* Production averaged 1,500 cars per week at first and was increased to about 2,000 cars per week for the last week of March and the first two weeks of April by adding manpower and moving to a seven-day work week. Fremont, not the Gigafactory, was the production bottleneck during this period.
* The $7500 FIT credit will be phased out starting at the end of Q2 in which Tesla reaches 200,000 US sales. Tesla has planned for this by offering Model 3s to Canadian buyers to keep the number of US buyers below 200,000.

jherndo | 27 april 2018

It's pretty easy to knock this guy down, but first several of your "points" aren't even addressed in this opinion piece. His profile describes him as "long only, value, special situations, growth at reasonable price" and then he goes on to talk about how he holds a short position. Uh... ok, so you aren't even internally consistent on your own stated investment strategies, so I can honestly start ignoring you at any point now.

Then he tells a very nice story about how using manual labor will decrease the potential production of the plant, which doesn't actually track. Then he tries to claim that the decrease in efficiency by adding a 3rd shift should decrease the overall profits of all model 3s by roughly 10% ($1000 a unit) with nothing but sunshine and wishes to justify these numbers. Yikes.

This guy needs to quit day trading and get a real job before he loses his shirt.

jherndo | 27 april 2018

Oh, and his main source of information on production appears to be our crappy google document about vins and deliveries. Anyone trading on info based on a publicly editable google sheet needs to have their brokerage account taken from them for their own good.

carlk | 27 april 2018

What's the point of this?

Coastal Cruiser. | 27 april 2018

Hmm. The single most important sentence in the article comes at the end:

"Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA."

Beyond that, the article seems to be a mix of facts on the record combined with pure speculation. But why bother trying to separate the wheat from the chaff? As of this point there is no publicly known facts that provide certainty as to what the next bottleneck in the line will be. The author none-the-less makes a prediction, only to later assert that predicting future production is about as reliable as predicting the author's future golf score.

"As of the end of Q2, US sales of Tesla Models S, X and 3 stood at 175,000 units. Assuming sales of 9,000 model S and X for Q2 leaves room for 16,000 Model 3 to be sold in the USA in Q2."

End of Q2?? This is April. Does the guy drive a Delorean? Even if he meant Q1, where did he get his number? Is this a disclosed figure?

"The $7500 FIT credit will be phased out starting at the end of the quarter in which Tesla reaches 200,000 US sales..."

This is either worded horribly, or outright incorrect.

WormtownKris | 27 april 2018

I won't click on this, as the SA bashers get paid per click. But just curious, which of those clowns wrote this one?

strava | 27 april 2018