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About Model 3 Sales

About Model 3 Sales

Given the FUD going on about Tesla right now, I dropped in on the Bloomberg site that tracks Model 3 production. Here's the latest:
1) The number of registered VINs -- Vehicle ID numbers handed out by the government for new production -- is now well above 400,000. Even better, Bloomberg reports that cars registered are now sporting VIN #s in the high 300 and 400,000 range. Most of the higher ones are in the US. There is a gap between the lasted cluster and the last, but this is normal. I suspect those will fill in as European deliveries.
2) At the end of Q1, Tesla had cumulatively sold 218,613 Model 3s. As of 5/21/2019, Bloomberg estimates Tesla has now delivered 263,428 M3s, an increase of 44,815, slightly over 6,000 weekly.
3) If current production holds Tesla will deliver 6,000 x 13 = 78,000+ M3s in Q2. Tesla delivered 62,950 M3s in Q1. In Q4 of 2018, Tesla delivered 61,394 M3s. Bloomberg cites these a production numbers, but Tesla tends to make the vast bulk of its cars after receiving actual orders.
4) Nobody knows what is going on with the Model S or Model X in Q2, at least they're not talking, but the refresh has to be adding to what was a disappointing first quarter. I'm of the opinion that most knew a refresh was in the works for both models and were waiting for those to be announced before purchasing of new S or X. What I was doing. I'm ordering a new X with longer range than my current 90D this fall.
6) IOW, another dismal quarter like the last is unlikely unless the bottom falls out of the global economy. Unfortunately, most of the signs don't look good at all on that front. Lots of numbers point to a global economy that is already noticeably slowing.
7) About the FUD, what we don't hear about is that ICE manufacturers are being hammered. Remember when the yoyo's with drones were looking for Teslas squirreled away in parking lots as proof the company was making cars that weren't selling? Next time you hear that, tell them to fly their drones over lots owned by ICE manufacturers. What they'll find are hundreds of thousands to vehicles ICE dealers have no room for because their lots are already packed with cars that aren't selling.

Just something to remember under the current FUD blizzard.

Mike83 | 21 mei 2019

Ford and GM cutting jobs and going into EV's and self driving software. The success of the M3 around the world is a wake up call but they are at least 3 to 4 years behind Tesla.

https://www.apnews.com/0036437d785c483fb40c8a7dbe5a22d0

jimglas | 21 mei 2019

what mike83 said ...

TeslaTap.com | 21 mei 2019

Good info. Model 3 #1 seller in California for all cars (ICE and EVs) in the 2nd half of 2018. Considering California is the largest market in the USA, other car makers ought to be a bit concerned that they have nothing to compete with it for years.

Tesla-David | 21 mei 2019

Thanks @dmm1240 for the realistic and positive outlook. I am totally optimistic about where Tesla is currently and as Mike83 stated, Tesla doing much better than ICE manufacturers who are cutting jobs, and I expect they have lots of cars sitting in their lots unsold. The incredible Tesla FUD is beyond disgusting.

Tropopause | 22 mei 2019

The FUD is an insult to the USA and what is supposed to stand for.

Madatgascar | 22 mei 2019

It doesn’t matter how many cars Tesla sells, the FUD press will find a way to spin it negatively. Tesla sells more M3s in Q1 than Q4 2018? Let’s report the US sales drop, so we can imply demand has fallen off a cliff. Tesla is still building the cars as fast as they can for ready buyers, right?

dmm1240 | 23 mei 2019

More on Tesla stock.

A couple of days ago Bank of America reported that 31% of Tesla shares are shorted, equaling the all time high, adding that it's the shorts who are responsible for the recent plunge in TSLA's price.

Today: An email leaked of another Elon email to employees. This one is far from alarming. Elon stated the following:
1. The M3 production line has now reached 900 units per day (6,300 per week) consistently.
2. At times, all portions of the assembly line have achieved a 1,000 units per day output, That would be 7,000 weekly,
3. Tesla is sitting on 50,000 orders. Not reservations, actual orders where people have plunked down the $2,500 deposit and are awaiting their new M3s.
4. Musk added that Tesla is on track to BEAT 4Q2018 for deliveries.
5. He then added the usual cheerleading to reach 1,000 units per day so that they can beat the 90,700 cars delivered 4Q2018.
6. Registered VIN numbers, now topping 400k total, support what Musk is saying.

IOW, Tesla has ZERO demand problem. This is particularly impressive in light of the increasingly unstable performance of the global economy. ICE vehicle sales, in contrast, are tanking. They've been declining in the U.S. since a peak in 2016.

The entire short thesis is that Model 3 demand has collapsed. That's what they're staking their money on.

What does this mean? It lays the groundwork for a classic short squeeze. If Tesla deliveries are in the neighborhood of 90k units for Q2, the stock price should go up. If that occurs, shorts will be scrambling to cover.

If you believe all this, now is the time to buy TSLA. If not, stay away, the stock is incredibly volatile historically.

mcdonalk | 23 mei 2019

Glendale, AZ is a suburb of Phoenix comprised primarily of lower-middle-class to upper-middle-class households. When running a 30-minute errand a few days ago in Glendale, I noticed more than one of each of three Tesla Models (not counting my own). (In contrast, I didn't see one Porsche.) Anecdotal, I know, but impressive nevertheless.

greg | 23 mei 2019

And to add in some other facts:

Currently Teslas Vancouver store is reported to be selling over 800 model 3's a week.

That's basically meaning 1/7th (or 1 days production each week) out of the entire week each week taken up with orders from 1 Canadian Province. All thanks to the EV incentive programs in Canada - other Canadian provinces will be having a similar impact thanks to the new incentives that all Canadians qualify for the SR+.[due to the base Model 3 "very short range" (SR-) model that Tesla "announced" in early May, that they will never get any orders for.]

No wonder orders are up on a net basis over the Quarter.

RHD countries other than the UK are still not open to configure/order yet, and there are reliable reports of over 3,500 Model 3s [about 1/3rd of the entire quarters production of Model 3s is UK RHD orders alone - i.e. one months solid production] were ordered by UK reservation holders in early May when that market was opened.

So there between Canada and the UK right there it shows there is a vast untapped demand there. And once orders open up for the other RHD countries that should be quite enough to keep Tesla busy for a month or more with RHD cars for more than a few more quarters at least.

Factor in the rest of the EU and of course, China. And you can see how getting to 1000 cars a week is required - to satisfy the demand.

I can't see that China sales will suffer that much. Even with a trade war.
Unless Chinese Government outright bans Teslas in China. (or socially engineer/condition people to not buy them like they have done with Apple products).

Truth is: China needs Tesla long term as much as Telsa needs China.long term. That may stick in some people craws [both inside and outside China], but its the reality for now. And therefore, even if China whacks on a huge tariff on imported Teslas coming into China. Locally made Teslas - made in China in GF3 won't be taxed as much [or at all]. Keeping the cost and price levels under control.

And even if China stopped buying Teslas for Q2 and Q3 right now Tesla can easily switch all that production to other markets - even for S and X thanks to the revamped Model S and X offerings, to fill in the gaps and utilise any spare production capacity (as if there is any of that to be had right now).

But that Chinese demand won't go away - if anything it will become even more intense. As there are not many competitors for range in China right now either. There are many NEVs (EVs) for sale. Most are crap. Even China recognises that. Hence why they pulled the incentives for many NEVs. But the requirement for 10% "NEV credits" this year for all manufacturers means that come the end of the year, all those Tesla "NEV credits" will be valuable.

Putting even more pressure on GF3 production ramp up in Q4. And given the lessons learned from Model 3 ramp up in Fremont likely the only sticking point to emerge is sourcing 2170 cells.

sbeggs | 25 mei 2019

Both flagged

byegates | 28 mei 2019

China demand is strong, I have been regularly checking Chinese Tesla Fan clubs and forums and the sales numbers. The latest round of tariff excluded cars, which is the only reason I see would impact sales.

China will not ban Tesla or do anything of that sort, it's not North Korea. Shanghai government worked very hard to get Tesla to build the factory in China, and in Shanghai (there are other cities bidding for it as well like Guangzhou), the Central government is very supportive, and local banks pour money in for building GF3, none of them want to see Tesla fail.

And Tesla has almost no competition in China as of now, in the mid to high-end market, China EV sales numbers may look really high, but most of them are short range, low end, I went back to China Feb, saw lots of 'Smart' size EV sells 15k USD, something like that, revenue-wise, Tesla is in a much better position then people think. Model 3 starts at 53.5k USD in China, with an added tariff(15% standard), local taxes, transportation cost, etc.

And Tesla is likely to start taking reservations of local made Model 3 starting 5/31, which would certainly boost sales.