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Next question. How long before hands off full FSD will be feature and regulatory complete on Hiways?

Next question. How long before hands off full FSD will be feature and regulatory complete on Hiways?

V10 is clearly a big step towards true FSD on highways . Equally as true, there remain many big hurdles, I.e., dealing with road debris, construction zones, accident blockages and reroutes, and maybe the toughest of all; overly aggressive and bad driving humans. I’m sure there are many more hurdles, this is just an example list

My question is not a debate on what should be on the list of challenges or the technical difficulty of the challenges. I believe that all will eventually be solved in Elon and regulatory time, but when??

My speculation, with no more knowledge than most, but simply as an observer and owner of a Tesla is that Tesla will release true FSD capability for highways within a year from now. Each State will then make their own decisions, but evidence will support legalization within 6 months from release. So... 1 and 1/2 years from now, we’ll be able to nap, watch Netflix, or whatever while the car safely takes down the highway. Thoughts?

sheldon.mike1010 | 29 september 2019

3 years

vmulla | 29 september 2019

10+

derotam | 29 september 2019

Just curious as to what in V10 makes you see "clearly a big step towards FSD on highways"

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, I just don't see much changed from V9.

vmulla | 29 september 2019

@derotam +1

Let's flip the question. What about V10 is a FSD feature on the highway?

M3phan | 29 september 2019

Less than 5 yrs

pct45 | 29 september 2019

Ok, remove “big”. It’s a step. I’ve now driven about 300 highway miles on V10. The visualization of lines and surrounding cars is much better. I found the response in stop and go traffic to be much closer to my own driving habits. (Not so pre V10). For those familiar with the Bay Area, I let the car drive nav on autopilot, during rush hour traffic, from highway 280 out to Pleasanton with no correction from me. This is a very complex series changes in highways - 280 to 101 to 80 over the bay bridge to 880 to 580 to 680 and then my exit. Stop and go, merging, lane changes, and especially - preparation for upcoming freeway changes all seemed much better. First time I’ve not felt the need to take control.

teslamazing | 29 september 2019

10+ really? They already accomplished FSD like 5 years ago and showed it again during autonomy day earlier this year. All hands off.

Accomplished just not perfected.

teslamazing | 29 september 2019

3 not 5 * sry

jebinc | 29 september 2019

I don’t see my current M3 being capable of Lvl5 FSD in it’s lifetime. I suspect FSD will come, but only after Tesla learns more/different hardware is needed to get all the way there. I’d be happy with Lvl3 FSD in two to three years, but that may be a stretch.

howard | 29 september 2019

Hp.1193 | September 29, 2019
10+ really? They already accomplished FSD like 5 years ago and showed it again during autonomy day earlier this year. All hands off.

Accomplished just not perfected.

Oh my gosh! This never ends. The FSD demos are very limited, highly choreographed, geofenced demos that do not remotely indicate just how far off "true" FSD (level 5) really is. I am in the +10 camp and not with my current Tesla.

teslamazing | 29 september 2019

bahahah ok.

calvin940 | 29 september 2019

None of us here have any real technical insight nor regulatory insight to answer either question so you'll just get a.lot of pointless postulation on both sides

Just carry on enjoying the level of change we are seeing Tesla make and it will come.

SnowZA | 30 september 2019

As a software developer, I can say that the first 90% of a large, complex project normally takes about 90% of the time, and then the last 10% also takes 90% of the time. I suspect that Tesla are close to that first 90% mark, but unfortunately that still leaves a heap to get finished and finalized. I don't really expect them to just suddenly one day release FSD fully baked. I think you will get constant small improvements like are happening with V10, and then sometime down the line, it will just all be working, and people will still be wondering when it is coming.

Either way, I think the biggest hurdle is still regulatory approval, and without that, even if they had it at 100% right now, it couldn't be released. Regulatory approval is going to take a long time to come around, I think - especially since there are so many different jurisdictions. I'm sure there will be somewhere that will allow it within the next few years, but I'm afraid that 10+ years is probably more likely to have it available everywhere.

AWDTesla | 30 september 2019

20+ years for us in Canada. Easily. Were still working on a decent supercharger network and that has a long ways to go.

AWDTesla | 30 september 2019

what will be amazing is Telsa will be the leader in this area with all of their AP data they've collected over the last decade or so. That data will just become more plentiful and better. Tesla will make a killing just being able to sell that data to other Automation companies and making FSD that much better across the board.

hamiltonned | 30 september 2019

calvin940: Yes. But people have to put their two cents in, worthless though it is.

derotam | 30 september 2019

@vmulla,

There is nothing NEW in V10 for FSD features on the highway. The only thing new to people would be smart summon.

Joshan | 30 september 2019

if you are talking hard features yes none were really added, but what more is really needed in hard features? Nothing really...

What is needed is tweaking and better performance and V10 brought a ton of that.

derotam | 30 september 2019

@Joshan, can you provide a detailed description of the "ton" of better performance that you are actually seeing yourself? I am curious as to what you, and others, are actually seeing as being greatly improved.

bjrosen | 30 september 2019

The question was not about when Tesla will have true self driving on highways, it was about regulatory approval. Governments do not move at Silicon Valley speeds, they move very very slowly. That pedestrian warning sound that was just introduced came from a law that was passed 10 years ago, that's how long it took for the rule making process to go through all of the required steps and then for the final rule to go into effect. That was for a trivial noise maker, imagine how long it will take for them to approve true self driving cars. Before DOT can even make rules Congress will have to pass legislation, and that can could take years. States probably can't do it on their own, the last thing you want is a patchwork of laws where every state has their own rules, it has to be done at the Federal level. I don't see how this could take less than 10 years, it might me much more.

Tronguy | 30 september 2019

Way I figure: Yeah, Elon time is "Now, Late, or Never". But during autonomy day he guesstimated 4th Q to 1st Q Tesla would be feature complete. Yup, V10 was delayed while they figured out curbs. All the SW guys know about that 90%/90% rule. But so do the SW guys at Tesla and Elon managed crowds of SW people long before he came to Tesla. So, late, yeah. 10 years late: Personal opinion, but I sure don't think so. My personal guess is late by months, maybe a quarter or so. Remember: They really did have a car driving around hands-free in the bay area for the demo view. If that was well and truly a fake: Yup, there's tons of TSLAQ types around who want that to be true or, on the other hand, to _make_ it be true (thinking of that idiot who tried to fake an autonomous Tesla into crashing).
As I've said around the forum before: We're not privy to what's going on with SW over there and, to my knowledge, there's been no leaks one way or the other. Officially: We get to wait and see.

terminator9 | 30 september 2019

Just on highways, 2 years. Full door-to-door 6+ years (which includes hardware version 4 with a new advanced sensor array, a ton of research, ability for at least some cars to talk to each other)

terminator9 | 30 september 2019

Although, I do agree that most of us don't know how much progress internally Tesla is making but I do know the progress shows one way or the other - meaning why not put it (more autonomy features) in the car with driver still required to hold the steering wheel like today? That will not require regulatory approval and the software will be tested. Tesla is not afraid to put beta software on the cars if it was there (or some features were close to there).

vmulla | 30 september 2019

Original question: How long before hands off full FSD will be feature and regulatory complete on Hiways?

Folks, please address the ***regulatory*** part of the question too :) oh, and don't forget ***hands off***

A demo on a vehicle means nothing for regulations.

I see the original question as similar to - 'when will AP come out of Beta?'

thedrisin | 30 september 2019

"if you are talking hard features yes none were really added, but what more is really needed in hard features? Nothing really..."

@Joshan. What is considered a hard feature? There are numerous issues to deal with yet in order to have FSD. Examples include low obstructions/debris, poor pavement condition avoidance, poor or no lane markings, snow-covered roads, construction areas, emergency vehicles, accidents, detours, wildlife, just to name a few. 10+ yrs.

teslamazing | 30 september 2019

Honestly, if you're not working behind Tesla doors, no one should comment on this topic. Simply. We prob only know 10% or less on what they are really working on.

thedrisin | 30 september 2019

The regulatory approval issue is not really the big problem. Many states have approved or are in the process of approving autonomous vehicles:

http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-self-dri...

Meeting the regulatory criteria will be the issue. Features will have to be fully ready, not beta, in all conditions. The other, maybe bigger issue, will be liabilty issues.

AWDTesla | 30 september 2019

@Hp.1193 doesn't really matter what Tesla is working on. Tesla could have FSD ready for tomorrow and most countries won't allow it, nor be ready for it.

Joshan | 30 september 2019

@derotam

It now seems to be much more confident to start. I always have my hand on the wheel, and when the car gets uncertain you can tell as it moves the steering wheel quite a bit more, almost like it is unsure to go left or right. If you use AP a lot you learn to identify this and its the first warning to get ready to take over. This is now happens much less often now since the update for me.

It now accelerates much faster than previously, both from a stop and in general. This is a huge boon and resolves quite a few issues and the personal preference of not looking like a grandma. I now can feel myself get pushed back in the seat when it accelerates. I am sure this will come of the cost of the Mileage though.

The new lane change is so much better. Not just the visual queues, which are also awesome. But it also doesnt slow down the way it used to when "thinking" about lane changing. It actually accelerates into lane changes and is much closer to how I drive.

It is now aware of "stripes" on a road. Single line, double line, dashed, etc. This allows it to make better decision on when to lane change legally and safely.

It now moves around in the lane more it seems. I have had it move out of dead center when there is a reason (driver hugging the line, semi in other lane, etc) I need to test this more though.

I can now see on coming traffic on my display! It is now tracking the cars coming at me and I have had it move over in the lane when the car coming the other way is hugging the middle. You can feel it clearly on the steering wheel and feel it steer back. This is HUGE!!!

teslamazing | 30 september 2019

@AWD if they did have it ready by tomm, it wouldn’t take 10+ years though for it to be regulated ..

Pointless thread.

Daryl | 30 september 2019

I see Smart Summon as training wheels for FSD. Maneuvering through a parking lot at slow speeds is in most ways a lot simpler than driving a city street or a highway, but it's a baby step to self driving. Capabilities will slowly be enhanced and added to. I have no idea how long it will take; Musk is famously optimistic, but it will happen.

Does the Model 3, even with the new HW3 computer, have enough sensors and processing power to handle FSD? Hopefully, but it's not proven yet.

Techy James | 30 september 2019

My estimate for FSD, given following considerations: 1) Elon stated feature ready by end of 2019, 2) Elon's track record of being overly optimistic on timelines, 3) Time to upgrade a 2.0 & 2.5 existing FSD Hardware 1.0.
If you have a newer Tesla with FSD Hardware 1.0 you will likely see Highway (Not City/Rural) FSD in about 1.5 years with City/Rural in about 3 years.
If you have older AP Hardware, your timeline will be based on when Tesla get's to upgrading your AP hardware to FSD Hardware 1.0.

Techy James | 30 september 2019

Clarification 3) Time to upgrade existing AP 2.0 & 2.5 Existing hardware to FSD Hardware 1.0.

andy | 30 september 2019

We are many years away from FSD on the UK. The road layouts have been created and amended to try and control drivers and to make use of existing space without building new infrastructure. To make FSD a reality there would be a need to standardise the roads and revert them to a less hostile environment for automation. It’s hard enough to tell the real-time mandatory variable rules as a human, let alone as a machine.

andy | 30 september 2019

s/on/in