My dodgy maths to estimate delivery dates

My dodgy maths to estimate delivery dates

Like everyone here, I'd really like to know when my M3 might be delivered. I can't answer that, but did some dodgy math modelling to try to estimate it, based on lots of assumptions.

First, I assumed that fully-fledged production of M3 would start in October next year at 2500 per week, increasing linearly to 10000 per week 3 years later.

Second, I assumed that Tesla will aim to fully satisfy the 115k pre-orders from those who lined up, before going around the production sequence again.

Third I assumed the following reservation split, which probably bears no resemblance to reality:

West Coast USA = 30%
Central USA = 15%
Eastern USA = 20%
Europe = 20%
APAC = 5%
Right Hand Drive = 10%

So plugging in the assumptions, I get these delivery dates:

West Coast USA = 26 Dec 2017
Central USA = 1 Feb 2018
Eastern USA = 19 March 2018
Europe = 1 May 2018
APAC = 11 May 2018
Right Hand Drive = 30 May 2018

Interesting. The model also forecasts Tesla would fully satisfy the current 300k reservations by Feb 2019, and hit the millionth M3 by October 2020, if the production rate continues to linearly increase.

If you think my assumptions are rubbish, I can easily churn out another scenario with different assumptions.

Red Sage ca us | 4 april 2016

Eventually Squared, Divided by Googolplex ad infinitum ∓ π = ...SOON.

NKYTA | 4 april 2016

No reason not to throw out completely speculative, dodgy, math. What else do 3 reservers have to do for the next year and a half? Besides, it's fun, especially when the "news" outlets pick it up and print it! ;-). ;-p

dsvick | 5 april 2016

You forgot to carry the 1 ....