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Discussion of 2016 Master Plan.

Discussion of 2016 Master Plan.

He also says SolarCity merger looks like it is a go.

Ross1 | 20 juli 2016

Now we look at a coming plethora of new threads all on the same topic, making it pointless and impossible to be immersed.
@Mike , perhaps consider changing the title of your thread? Like, Discussion of 2016 Master Plan.
But then, there already are scattered threads. Thanks for the heads up anyway.

Mike83 | 20 juli 2016

Will use that. Thanks.

Ross1 | 20 juli 2016

I just might add for Mike, it was originally titled to alert for 5pm PST release news

Ross1 | 20 juli 2016

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/4043829/master-plan-for-burnie-released...

Elon is too slow: been pipped at the post for release of The Master Plan :)

sirgalay | 20 juli 2016

Am I in the right place for tonight Tesla's Master Plan live discussion?

Niko | 20 juli 2016

So what is the Master plan ?

Niko | 20 juli 2016

i guess this is not a place for me, Good Day!

SamO | 20 juli 2016
Sandy’s 3 | 20 juli 2016

Is this repeated 'late thing' just his way of selling..................

Mike83 | 20 juli 2016

Just got back from a workout. I am late but guess it didn't start?

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

Patiently waiting. I'm sure the wait will be worth it.

Niko | 20 juli 2016

still here kinda Elon

Niko | 20 juli 2016

screwing with my canon printer

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

Elon, Niko is waiting, lets not disappoint him. :)

Niko | 20 juli 2016

I don't plan too, it would be nice to hear from him :)

Niko | 20 juli 2016

Niko3 is

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

I feel like anything that takes this much preparation, last minute touch ups should be forgiven for a late launch. Just my opinion.

Jcastillo18 | 20 juli 2016

Don't keep Niko waiting ...... Yeah excited though

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

Pretty amazing though to be living in a era like this. Elon, the world awaits you.........

Jcastillo18 | 20 juli 2016

I keep refreshing my screen I think I may go insane lol

Niko | 20 juli 2016

Yes! I'm

Niko | 20 juli 2016

He keeps the TESLA blood flowing, it means more then you know.
~NikolaRT3. ;)

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

A decade in the waiting, soon I will have zero nails on my fingers. :)

Jcastillo18 | 20 juli 2016

Ok it's almost 6 pm Niko will not be happy about this

Niko | 20 juli 2016

I starting to crack open my iPhone my iTeslaPod

keith.goodwin | 20 juli 2016

It's Live!!!!

Will_A | 20 juli 2016

Time to read

Jcastillo18 | 20 juli 2016

Where ?

Jcastillo18 | 20 juli 2016

Where ?

sirgalay | 20 juli 2016

In the blog!

Anitara2006 | 20 juli 2016

Interesting.
He IS taking on Uber, but he is also going to take on the Semi Truck world.
That one is going to cause a LOT of chaos since NONE of the Semi Truck companies have really worked towards making decent hybrids, let alone EVs.

The one that I expected was a focus on Manufacturing. Everybody likes to focus on his products, but Musk's REAL strength is his manufacturing POV. In this case, what is missing in his master plan is that he is obviously going to have a very heavy focus on robotics. We are not talking buying from others, but developing his own. The reason for selling residential robots is basically the same as creating the Roadster; he is funding and testing the systems.

Mike83 | 20 juli 2016

Wow. This is pretty cool, I will have to peruse the plan some more. A very aggressive and disruptive path. Looking forward to this.

Octagondd | 20 juli 2016

Robotics will improve rapidly and that is the heart of his plan to rapidly increase the efficiency of manufacturing.

Love all of it, though not sure about the shared fleet idea, but it is optional and something many younger people are doing if they don't have families anyways, so it can't hurt.

carlk | 20 juli 2016

The shared fleet is pretty much Uber without the need of human drivers. It's here to disrupt the disruptor.

Niko | 20 juli 2016

Semi Trucks are not cheap, their not like your cars, & the NikolaOne well cost a O/O $400,000 it's not feasible we are lucky to make $100.000 yr off it! Rolling down the Road, I Hope Elon takes it on but, But your talking about Real big money, & it must prove it's self before it's on Public roads, Now think of a Trucking company it well cost them over a 1,000,000,000 for the electric Trucks of 10, the NikolaOne is a Great Idea but it's cost well take ten yrs to pay for it's self, Hey their are other expediences you may not know that exist, Road Taxes, permits, insurance, where to get the fuel or charge, etc., Trucking is not cheap.

Anitara2006 | 20 juli 2016

Not just Nikola 1, but also www.wrightspeed.com.
Wrightspeed is doing a series hybrid which is the smart thing, in my mind.
BUT, I am surprised. Wright is an EX-Tesla and choose to use A123 batteries. These have had LOTS of issues. In addition, he would be better off cutting a deal with Tesla on their battery packs.

But, Tesla is now looking at doing SCs are gas stations, when in fact, the better choice is to hook up with the top 2 truck stops: Pilot Flying J, along with TravelCenters of America.
If they start getting SCs installed in these, they provide a decent set of restaurants and 24x7 rest areas off all highways.

IOW, those 2 are likely good choices for investment.

BTW, when it comes to the batteries on semis, it is probably better to go with the battery swaps.
Likewise, it would be useful to see remote charging at the on-ramps to provide external power to accelerate the vehicle. Once it is accelerated, it is cheap to run in terms of energy.

Niko | 20 juli 2016

Anitara2006
Pilot Flying J still gets me, "Pilot" or "Flying J" it weird win they started to call it Pilot Flying J< I'm For the hybrid
series, but charge only? No one is going to wait on the charge, theirs to much freight to pull & we can't keep up now,
and we are only human, we still have DOT to deal with, & I don't want to sleep next too a charge station it creates waves that affects the mind & body, I do know for a fact.

tigardspaz | 20 juli 2016

To be practical, a semi-truck would have to have some kind of turbine powered generator. simply relying upon the battery won't do. I can't wait to see Tesla pickups and light commercial vehicles.

joemar10 | 20 juli 2016

Nikola Tesla was a genius and a visionary. Look at the following quote credited to him and the date:

“When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain.... We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do this will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket.”

Nikola Tesla, inventor, futurist and engineer, c. 1926.''

He predicted the internet and smartphones in one paragraph in friggin' 1926!!!

Elon Musk is no less a genius and visionary. I don't think he will die a pauper like Nikola Tesla did. I hope Tesla finally gets the recognition he deserves. When the current crop of climate change deniers die off and the world is better for it, Musk will finally get his recognition.

JeffreyR | 20 juli 2016

@gregcropper wrote, "To be practical, a semi-truck would have to have some kind of turbine powered generator. simply relying upon the battery won't do."

Using fuel that you can burn only once is what Elon is trying to get away from. Remember that you can easily swap out battery packs when you are talking industrial scale. Also you would have multiple battery packs per semi, so you could charge them in parallel. Think battery packs with hundreds of kilowatt-hours of juice, not just what works in a car. Also realize that semi-tractor trailer drivers often sleep in their rigs. So stopping at your allotted time (they are limited to driving only in short stretches to keep them safe) to charge up for a few hours or overnight while they sleep is not as big of a deal. The fuel savings would help a lot.

--------------------------------------------

 

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

 

Solar + Battery Storage

I found it interesting that Elon mentions that the only reason that SolarCity and Tesla Motors are separate already is an accident of history. SolarCity's Buffalo plant is coming online just as Tesla's Gigafactory is, so it makes sense they would try to leverage the synergy of the two of them. The fact that Tesla drivers are often looking at solar + storage already makes this seem like a natural combination.

 

Semis, Buses, etc.

The natural progression of battery technology (JB's Law?) is that in a decade or so batteries will be much better--cost less, hold more juice by weight and volume, and charge faster than today's batteries. Not only will that bring the cost of personal vehicles way down (think base Model ≡ w/ a 350-mile range), but it will make other, larger vehicles possible too. The fact that Tesla is already looking into these smaller, more efficient mass transit vehicles shows how much they believe in JB's Law.

 

Fully Autonomous: Summon from NY to LA

Not that people would actually do a summon from NY to LA, but the fact that Class-4, fully autonomous cars are coming is a huge opportunity. That is why Google, Tesla, Apple (assuming that's what Titan is) and others are investing so heavily in it. I drove a fair bit for me today, and I was still only on the road for about an hour.

Ride Sharing

Ride sharing and subsidizing your "personal" vehicle is something that will seem strange to many now. But, when fully autonomous cars dominate, it won't seem so strange when you can cover your payments in a few weeks out of every month.

 

Factory as "Product"

Apple products are stamped w/ "Designed by Apple in California" for a reason.

Apple designers work closely w/ their manufacturers to not only save costs, but also to push the envelope of what is possible to create. Their uni-body aluminum laptops were ground-breaking. And, it was because the designers worked so hard to both define the end result as well as the process.

Elon has mentioned that Tesla looks at the Gigafactory as a "product" before. It's only natural that all of their manufacturing would be thought of this way. I really like how they look at First Principals to see how much they can squeeze out of a manufacturing line. We know Tesla does constant, iterative improvements for their end products. It only makes sense that they would put the same level of focus into the process too.

carlk | 20 juli 2016

@JeffreyR

Great explanation. Thanks,

arneharaldhanssen | 20 juli 2016

I believe we have to rethink solar roofs, both on buildings and vehicles. New materials needs to be developed (paint, lacquer, glass) to cover not only roofs, but entire buildings and cars. They need to be more efficient than todays material in making electricity from solar energy and they need to be able to cover all surfaces. I have some ideas on this, but certainly we will some time in future travel in vehicles that are – maybe even primarily – getting their energy from just light shining on its surface. Glass that uses solar energy for electricity is already developed, ways of using energy from all surfaces on buildings and vehicles will arrive.

Tom Ovlien, Oslo, Norway

lar_lef | 20 juli 2016

Master plan sounds convincing. Kudos to EM.

Red Sage ca us | 21 juli 2016

Anitara2006: I sincerely doubt that Elon Musk will ever allow Tesla Motors technology to be used in a hybrid vehicle from anyone at all. Please note that both Mercedes-Benz and Toyota build hybrid cars. Both of those companies have divested in TSLA.

johnse | 21 juli 2016

"Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works..."

I think what is being hinted at here is: Combine batteries into each solar panel. This automatically scales storage with generation capability, can use microinverters or normal inverters. Simplifies installation in that it adds nothing to the time or cost of installation and completely does away with the need for net metering. If you consistently generate more than you use, Tesla Energy buys it from you and uses negotiated contracts to provide energy to the grid.

Integrating into local microgrids would keep energy local and make one point of contact for grid-tie in a way that is more manageable for utilities. Not having to transmit energy for long distances means fewer losses.

brando | 21 juli 2016

@Red Sage

Come on Red Sage, IF Tesla needed the sales, IF there was profit in it, Tesla would.
Production constrained not demand constrained.
And OEMs won't/can't pay 25%-30% margins Tesla aims for.
And they have Giga Factories to sell. Need 200 plants to produce batteries for 100,000,000 autos annually.
And I think only 1% of roofs have solar panels so far.
Then battery packs for storage.
There won't be a business case to supply major auto makers. Startups and small companies? perhaps

And Elon wants/will greatly improve the auto assembly plant (and auto design) ... Tesla Engineering/Consulting?

We live in interesting times.
If our Banksters and War machine doesn't screw it all up. Or Ocean collapse or atomic bombs or atomic power melt downs ... Maybe even our next President could screw it all up all too easily.

complex times

Ross1 | 21 juli 2016

I will be the first to say I was wrong.
I thought it would include Elon's succession plan.

To think like a genius you have to be a genius.

bb0tin | 21 juli 2016

@johnse
You said "I think what is being hinted at here is: Combine batteries into each solar panel."
Nope. I can think of several reasons why not.

bb0tin | 21 juli 2016

@Ross
And here I was thinking you were joking when you made that prediction

fgaliegue | 21 juli 2016

The concern I have with this plan (note: I have read the blog post only) is, does Tesla really have the manpower to fulfill both the Model 3 production goals AND design the two other vehicles at the same time (they are announced "some time next year", which seems awfully soon).

But then Mr Musk is daring and I'm not, and he probably knows what he's talking about whereas I'm not.

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