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Reservation Order vs Delivery Order

Reservation Order vs Delivery Order

Apologies if this has been discussed.

On Tesla's website it says this:

"...Once production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets."

Does that imply that someone later on the reservation list, who lives in North America, will get his/her car before someone earlier on the reservation list who lives in Europe?

PhillyGal | 3 mei 2017

At this point, no one knows for sure but in my humble opinion, someone in Cali who reserves a Model 3 today and wants RWD would get hers before someone in Australia where they have right hand drive cars that reserved a year ago.

Geozeke | 3 mei 2017

Given the stated production schedule, you're probably right. It does make sense that Left Hand RWD cars would start delivering before Right Hard AWD cars, regardless of reservation order; at least initially.

Frank99 | 3 mei 2017

PG -
My humble opinion is opposite yours - I expect the worldwide rollout to start by Q1 2018, long before the US backlog is worked through, so that someone in Australia who reserved March 31, 2016 will get their vehicle before someone in CA who reserved on March 31, 2017. RHD will throw a wrench into the works, surely.

Your proposed approach would suggest that no one outside the US would get a Model 3 before, say, 2020 when production catches up with the US reservation queue. With the huge amount of enthusiasm for Tesla in various other nations, I just can't see Tesla doing that.

M3forMe | 3 mei 2017

IMO the RHD won't be available till Q3'18 so as they have to work on the AWD version first for LHD with that being said I don't think if you reserve today in Cali you will get it before someone in Australia who reserved @ or shortly after the reveal.

Frank99 | 3 mei 2017

What a difference a couple hours makes. After listening to Elon on the quarterly conference call, he seemed to contradict me (how dare he?). He suggested that most US reservation holders would get the full credit - which means that Tesla is somehow planning on shipping, say, 300,000 Model 3's (half the reservations) to the US in two quarters. Assuming they hit 200,000 cars on Jan 1, 2018, that would suggest that all deliveries in the first half of 2018 would stay stateside.

I bow to your superior prognostication, PG.

sjl | 3 mei 2017

To me, it makes sense for Tesla to roll out the Model 3 in LHD markets first, and only ramp up production of RHD models once they're producing LHD cars reasonably close to as fast as they're selling them. It also reduces their recall risk somewhat - having the early models in the USA, close(ish) to the factory means less cost in dealing with early production niggles.

It wouldn't surprise me if somebody in, say, California, who placed their reservation deposit six months after me (in Australia), were to receive their vehicle before me. And I'd be completely okay with that. For one thing, it would give me more time to save up the estimated $AU50-60k that the vehicle will probably cost. For another, it means that things will be more solidly bedded down by the time my vehicle is produced.

But at the same time, I don't expect Tesla to delay all RHD deliveries until after all LHD reservations have been fulfilled. I'm guessing (and it is just a guess) that there'll be a maximum of about six months' differential. Depends on a number of factors, really, and it's hard to tell.

Geozeke | 4 mei 2017

@sjl: Are any government tax credits or rebates offered in Australia for the purchase of an EV?

jefflane | 4 mei 2017

I was on a Model S test drive a couple of weeks ago - needed a fix :) - and the Tesla guy with me, who also has a reservation for a 3, suggested Q4 2018 for UK deliveries. However I think this was more based on his personal opinion rather than any insider knowledge but would tie in with the update from Elon and your last post Frank99....

Mapowing | 4 mei 2017

I ask this before on a different thread...
I put $1k in 3/31/2016...if I put another one now, does that mean I get to configure both vehicles at the same time and possibly get them both roughy around similar time frame???

dsvick | 4 mei 2017

@mapowing, no I seriously doubt that. The myTesla page says you'll be asked to configure based on reservation date. I would assume a reservation now will not get to configure until late 2018. On the other hand by then you should have your first one delivered so maybe you'll get the prior owner priority .... :)

melinda.v | 4 mei 2017

@mapowing - to add to dsvick's comment, I believe even if you reserved (2) on day one, you would only be able to configure one to begin with. can't recall if that was an official comment from Tesla in the blog post that came out just prior to the initial reveal, or general public speculation.

KP in NPT | 4 mei 2017

@melinda I believe what was said at the time was that you could reserve up to two, but would only get owner priority for the number of Tesla's owned (up to the two.) So if you only own one tesla, only one of the 2 reservations would get the priority.

PhillyGal | 4 mei 2017

@Frank - Now I'm disappointed. I was all ready to compliment your opinion (first comment) and say that you could easily be right, then I read your next post learning more toward my guess. Dang ;)

But really, it's all still really a guess. Because even Tesla themselves can't predict how quickly they'll ramp production, it's incredibly hard for them to say what delivery priorities may look like. I'm not at all envious of the guy or gal whose job it will be to prioritize deliveries.

Frank99 | 4 mei 2017

>>>I'm not at all envious of the guy or gal whose job it will be to prioritize deliveries.
Not such a hard job - it just involves the judicious application of a pair of dice, a Ouija board, and the Magic 8 Ball ("When will I get my Model 3?" "Reply hazy try again").

Geozeke | 4 mei 2017

+1 for sympathy for the delivery prioritize-er :-)

It will be really interesting to see how the queuing order plays out once they open the design studio. My hope is that Tesla will moderate entry into the design studio to give all customers a relatively consistent timeline from that point forward (like, "I just ordered and delivery is in 3 months..."). I'd like that approach, as apposed to early design studio entry and then wildly divergent delivery times as more people order.

Of course that may mean a longer wait to get into the studio :-)

Frank99 | 4 mei 2017

I'm guessing that an entire "region" will get invited to configure more-or-less simultaneously, with a rough estimate initially provided based on options and your place in line. It wouldn't even surprise me if the early reservers got an estimate of "October", or even "Early Q4", rather than a specific date, during their initial configuration. Within a couple of weeks, I'd expect production scheduling to be able to better batch the cars and refine the estimate.

Red Sage ca us | 10 mei 2017

Frank99: If the dice fall on an odd number, use the Ouija board, if you have an even number, use the Magic 8 Ball.

Geozeke: I expect that Delivery dates will seem 'wildly divergent' almost immediately due to some people wanting fully loaded vehicles while others order basic black bottom-of-the-line and yet more order something else in between.

Frank99: The time will come when Custom orders can be delivered pretty much anywhere within the contiguous U.S. within about two weeks. But that may take a while to come about.