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TSLA Stock Price

TSLA Stock Price

I find it endlessly hilarious that every time i search TSLA for their stock price, the news article selection has essentially 4/5 articles being negative towards the company. Yet stock price continues to go up. It seems these online news companies have an interest in undermining Tesla's potential, and many suggest that Tesla will plummet into darkness. Yet, stock value continues to increase.

Remember its not in the interest of news companies to tell the truth.

reed_lewis | 14 juni 2017

Tesla is not like any other company out there. They are a technology company that makes cars which is not something that most people understand.

Captain_Zap | 14 juni 2017

Stock shorters can be prolific writers.

rxlawdude | 14 juni 2017

"Remember its not in the interest of news companies to tell the truth."

That's a bold statement.

Tesla-David | 14 juni 2017

Here is one which is very positive projecting TSLA > $450/share and up to $1000/share by 2020
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/14/investing/tesla-stock-elon-musk/index.ht...

I brought my TSLA shares at IPO and have continued to hold, and am very satisfied with the direction Tesla/EM is taking the company!

carlk | 14 juni 2017

"Remember its not in the interest of news companies to tell the truth."

Some are and some are not. It's only determined by quality of their readerships.

Silver2K | 14 juni 2017

I bought into the stock yesterday during pre market. I haven't jinxed it yet!

Frank99 | 14 juni 2017

"Truth" is a very broad concept when it comes to Tesla.

From one point of view, Tesla is a car company that has never shipped a product on the schedule that they claimed they would, and who has created tremendous hype over a car that they claim they'll ship "real soon now". They sound exactly like the legion of startup car companies that came before them with revolutionary products that got a lot of attention, then sank. From here, it's inevitable that Tesla will stumble and fall.

From another point of view, Tesla is an hugely unprofitable company entering a tremendously competitive market with at least a dozen huge, established competitors, that only survives by continuously raising capital. It's stock is priced at 10 or more times what it should be trading at, according to centuries of conservative financial analysis observing 10's or 100's of thousands of companies as they're born, grow, stagnate, and die. From here, the stock is the biggest bubble the financial markets have seen since Tulip Mania in 1637, and the most obvious bet in the world is to bet on the stock price crashing.

From still another point of view, Tesla's future is unlimited and they're in the very earliest stages of becoming the largest company on earth, controlling transportation and energy as the world transitions from older technologies to modern ones. They're the only company with a crystal-clear mission that brings together the future of the planet, building vast manufacturing capability, and (eventually) making tons of money. From this view, there's almost no price that's too expensive for its stock.

From a card-carrying member of the third point of view, all of these points of view are based on real, hard facts, and the first two points of view contain a lot of uncomfortable truth. Understand the points of view, internalize them, accept them, because the third isn't more true than the first two.

muddy | 14 juni 2017

Many news companies have put profit over integrity. Too often they broadcast/print what sells to their audiences (as Carlk pointed out.
They are great at creating perceptions.
They rarely tell a lie for which they can be sued or that will cause a significant hit on their bank account. And just as rare is the instance when they tell all sides of the entire story. So difficult to sort it out sometimes.

Rocky_H | 14 juni 2017

No need to attribute it to malevolence or lying. Tesla stock just flies in the face of established data from many decades of financial and business behavior. They are finance guys. It does not make sense and doesn't fit the model, so they figure it has to correct some time--regression to the mean.

Efontana | 14 juni 2017

Frank99,

For the truth, "Look at the score board."

Go to google finance and pull up TSLA, then compare to any stock you can name: Google, Amazon, Apple, Index500 (except NVDA).

Then click on all the alternative time scales available.

TSLA gaps, significantly gaps, everyone else.

Look at the scoreboard if you want to find the truth.

Frank99 | 14 juni 2017

Efontana -
Look at the price of Tulip futures 1636-1637, and compare it to any stock you can name. Tulip Futures gapped everything else. Well, until Feb 1637 rolled around...
https://en.wikipedia org/wiki/Tulip_mania#/media/File:Tulip_price_index1.svg

There have been lots of financial bubbles over the years, in large markets (housing/real estate) to individual stocks. I suggest reading:
https://en.wikipedia org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

Silver2K | 14 juni 2017

frank99

when amazon was losing money and all the bigshots like Walmart were making billions, the same was said.

tesla actually would be profitable, albeit not very profitable. If they stopped pouring money into r&d for future vehicles (model 3, Y and Semi) and superchargers and just concentrated on the Model S/X lines they would make money. They make a 25% profit per car.

correct me if I'm wrong.

SamO | 14 juni 2017

You are right. Frank99 is wrong. Sorry Frank. And saying it is a bubble like tulips is incredibly counter-factual.

KP in NPT | 14 juni 2017

I think the stock will be a wild ride...but in the end will end up double...or higher. :)

Al1 | 15 juni 2017

A lot of misconceptions around bubbles. Bubbles do happen. When they burst however leaders come out much stronger. Amazon is a great example.

Amazon did exist before the bubble, it saw many other startups rise and fall. Meanwhile internet is here to stay, playing increasingly important roles.

Imagine Russia hacking elections in 1999.

Any big names that didn't survive?

Madatgascar | 15 juni 2017

@SamO, looks to me like Frank99 is a believer, if you read his first post (best condensation I have seen of the various views on Tesla).

I have read a couple of bearish reviews of Tesla lately that still referred to it as "Tesla Motors." This is where the disconnect is in my opinion. What Tesla is doing in energy may be small now, but it is readily scalable and could grow to be the new paradigm.

SamO | 15 juni 2017

@tbouquet,

Oh I agree that Frank99 is a bull, but the tulip bubble isn't comparable to Tesla. Like saying Amazon is a bubble. Or Facebook is a bubble because it is valuable. Does not compute.

Frank99 | 15 juni 2017

Sorry, SamO, but I'm going with tbouquet on this one.

All three of the POVs that I listed are positions that honest, intelligent people could hold with real facts on their side. The difference between them is how one extrapolates into the future - a notoriously unpredictable place. It is, dare I say it, a difference of belief: The first believes that Tesla will fail because all US Auto startups since Ford (111 years ago!) have failed. The second doesn't necessarily believe that Tesla will fail - but simply believes in the established financial models and believes that the probability of, and loss resulting from, a stock crash outweighs the probability of, and gain resulting from, the stock continuing to climb. The third believes that, despite the history of auto startups, Tesla has found a unique path and should be viewed uniquely, that the path they've discovered is as disruptive as they believe.

I believe that Tesla has found a path, and I believe that the management team at Tesla has the strength to follow that path. And I believe I'm going to buy a kick-gas car.

Tesla-David | 15 juni 2017

I support the validity of the third path, as does Tony Seba, who believes EVs will take over by 2030, and that Tesla is in the driver seat for that transition. There is a link to utube talk from March 2016 worth viewing.
https://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/tony-seba-all-new-ve...

SamO | 15 juni 2017

Sorry Frank99 but NO! There was no path for tulips to continue their bubble. They have zero intrinsic value and their price went up based on fantasy.

Not so with Tesla.

Price is based on discounted future sales. Now those sales may never materialize, Tesla may produce Model 3 that is not compelling with lots of problems, full self driving cars may malfunction and kill crowds of people or Elon may leave for Mars.

But that's not a "bubble" driven by psychology. Those are examples of product failures and loss of "key man."

Is Tesla like pets.com with no path to profitability? If so then Frank99 is right. If Tesla has a path (but no guarantee) then Frank99 is using a poor analogy.

El Mirio | 15 juni 2017

korean bump

Madatgascar | 15 juni 2017

Well I'll agree the analogy to a tulip bubble or even the more recent tech bubble is flawed. Look at the intrinsic value of what Tesla has accomplished - gigafactory built, worldwide charging network looking unmatchable, world's best and SAFEST sedan and SUV produced, and a brand name has been established that is so well respected that half a million people will place a deposit for a product that will not be produced for over a year. All this without a scrap of conventional paid advertising. Sure, the stock may be overpriced now, depending on a lot of variables - but it's not going to go "pop."

Frank99 | 15 juni 2017

>>> but it's not going to go "pop."
I happen to agree with you, but my whole point is that this is an opinion, it's speculation on what the future holds for Tesla. Someone who holds a different opinion isn't factually incorrect, and isn't necessarily being untruthful, especially if their opinion is backed by well-established precedent.

SamO | 15 juni 2017

Frank,

I don't think you're being dishonest, but I do think that your analogy is totally counterfactual. Although there is evidence that teslas share price is pricing in a certain amount of success, that is different in substance from whether or not this is a bubble based upon fantasy. I don't think you have made a logical connection between tulips and Tesla. But I love you anyways. :-)

Frank99 | 15 juni 2017

Thank you, SamO, I love me too. ;)
I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about the meaning of the word "fact".

SamO | 15 juni 2017

If TSLA flops it won't be because of a bubble like tulips. It will be because of product failure.

SCCRENDO | 15 juni 2017

@Sam0. +1

Ross1 | 15 juni 2017

Or management failure, or Musk dies

El Mirio | 15 juni 2017

Musk better gets this sorted out before leaving for Mars :O)

vp09 | 15 juni 2017

Nice analysis Frank99. I'm with you.

SamO, the way I read Frank's bubble comment was not as an analogy to TSLA's stock price. Here is again what Frank wrote: Efontana - Look at the price of Tulip futures 1636-1637, and compare it to any stock you can name. Tulip Futures gapped everything else. Well, until Feb 1637 rolled around...
https://en.wikipedia org/wiki/Tulip_mania#/media/File:Tulip_price_index1.svg

There have been lots of financial bubbles over the years, in large markets (housing/real estate) to individual stocks. I suggest reading: https://en.wikipedia org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

I'm not sure anyone is saying "bubble" about TSLA. I certainly would not.

vp09 | 15 juni 2017

A price reflects what people are willing to pay. If I think that 500 florins for one Admiral van Eyck tulip bulb is a good price, I might buy one. If I thought others would be willing to pay more in the future for that bulb.

With TSLA, I'm pretty certain that others will be willing to pay more than $370 a share or $500 a share or $1000 a share in the future.

Madatgascar | 16 juni 2017

I think the Tesla failure scenario would have more to do with the company getting too far out over its skis and leveraging these valuations to justify big debt and capex, and some catalyst (most likely the failure of the promised FSD) creating a panic situation where stock drops and creditors lose faith in Tesla's long term ability to repay. Once weakness is perceived the big competitors will pounce and challenge Tesla's distribution system, and I imagine things could get pretty bad, but Tesla would still have a substantial value and compelling products - and its whole energy business.

Energy is where I see Tesla's real growth potential. The auto business, as the bears always point out, is pretty competitive, but in the energy sector Tesla would be both serving and effectively competing with utilities - and generally speaking, those guys don't know the meaning of the word competition. Having the size and economy of scale to survive the current solar market shake-out and the vertical integration of battery storage puts Tesla in a potentially very good situation. Barring an antitrust intervention, I don't see much downside.

Ross1 | 16 juni 2017

TSLA stock value is based on its potential, and basically relies on one man's vision.
If he were not there, would we have such enthusiasm for the future of TSLA?
Would you pay $400 for shares if it was run by JB or Shotwell?
Its value would then more represent a manufacturing company rather than a magic beanstalk.

Frank99 | 16 juni 2017

>>> If he were not there, would we have such enthusiasm for the future of TSLA?
The same question was asked about Apple after Steve Jobs died. Apple stock did fine.

I think the goals and path for Tesla over the next 5-10 years is much clearer than the path for Apple. Even if Elon Musk got hit by a bus, they could continue to execute and kick ass.

Silver2K | 16 juni 2017

ross1

they said that about apple when jobs passed. the company is bigger than it has ever been.

AlMc | 17 juni 2017

JB running Tesla would not get me out of TSLA. if JB left to start his own company I will sell my TSLA that day. Just one man's opinion.

Captain_Zap | 17 juni 2017

I'd be all for Shotwell being the boss. She gets things done.

Tropopause | 17 juni 2017

Are you guys implying the future lies in tulip stocks?

McLary | 17 juni 2017

SilverP85plus | June 14, 2017
I bought into the stock yesterday during pre market. I haven't jinxed it yet!

Wow!

Silver2K | 17 juni 2017

I spoke to early :(

I jinxed it!

zanegler | 22 juni 2017

I do object when the Tesla shorts (or bears) say things like they lose money on every car. The fact is they make a great margin approaching 30%, but are putting profits into growth. I do suggest to those that got in early, to dollar-cost average up, rather than just hold. I used to refrain from doing this just so I didn't bring down my % gain. This was silly as what really matters is dollars gained in total, not percentage. I suggest buying more TSLA on any dips or a set amount every month. I am not a financial adviser, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express.....once or twice.

Ross1 | 22 juni 2017

I am predicting a ramp along with M3 ramp (over 400) but a shaky tumultuous following 6 months while the hiccups control the market.
Time to buy: September?

falikhani | 12 juli 2017

Could someone tell me how i can buy some tesla share please, i have never bought any share before please?

falikhani | 12 juli 2017

Could someone tell me how i can buy some tesla share please, i have never bought any share before please?
I live in the UK ,

Frank99 | 12 juli 2017

1. Open an account at Etrade.com, Ameritrade.com, or similar online broker that allows UK customers.
2. Move some money into the account
3. Buy shares of TSLA trading on the US NASDAQ exchange.

daverileyak | 16 juli 2017

Wrote this to agree with Frank about presenting the bubble POV, thenI erroneously posted it to a different thread which had a similar theme...

... Bubbles ... Much of the 6-month TSLA stock price runup since mid-December 2016 has been based on momo investing - Wall Street speak for momentum investing. Momentum investing is completely divorced from value- or fundamentals-based investing. It is buying into an uptrend in the belief, the hope that the momentum will continue, the price will rise, a profit will be made for the 'investor.' This is about as close as you can get to the Bigger Fool Theory of investing - betting that there will be another buyer, a bigger fool, next week to pay more - which is the classic basis for the Tulip Bulb Craze bubble and crash. It becomes a pyramid, and you may eventually run out of bigger fools. TSLA stock is not special in this in any way. Plenty of stocks get run up by speculators. Momo buying is speculation. Many crash, some don't. You can make the case that 1928 and 1929 represent another good example of momentum buying followed by a crash. Did your parents or grandparents come of age in the 1930's? Thank the speculators for those hard times. The momentum buyers.

At what point do you call momentum investing participation in the Bigger Fool Theory? When is it a bubble? The folks above who won't accept Frank99's excellent and thoughtful presentations insist we ignore the lesson of the tulip bulb investors and declare it to be a bad comparison.

The TSLA stock recent one-week 20% price drop is pretty serious, especially if you happen to be one of the folks who bought in on the solstice, because your manicurist showed you an article speculating on a $10,000 a share future valuation, and then sold your shares in a panic the day Model 3 SN 1 was due out.

What's TSLA worth as an investment? Well, what's their profit margin? Negative 8.5%. OK, what's their operating margin? Negative 7.4% (Yes, really.) What's their book value per share - assets minus liabilities? $30.38. Discount that by 40%. P/E? PEG? Not even negative numbers, since dividing into zero is so challenging. (Flamers: ignore everything else and aim at this paragraph of inconvenient truths.)

What's TSLA stock worth as speculation on what you may think or hope will occur in in the future? That's up to you and the rest of the stock market. If a 20% loss in a week doesn't scare you, Buy On The Dip. Tomorrow.

Now that you know the score and willingly choose to buy bulbs. Err, the stock.

Disclaimers: I have bought and sold TSLA stock. I consider it speculative, and knowingly accept the associated risks. I own a Tesla and have reservations for the Model 3. I am a big fan of Tesla and Elon Musk, and modestly can say I share in his vision for renewable electric modernization. I am not a financial advisor (or a robot) and the views I express are intended only to be helpful for the discussion. But here is some non-professional advice: Never short a stock without hedging the position, and especially never short the stock of a company with such vision and potential as TSLA.

Al1 | 17 juli 2017

Thank you for your comments. I do see however fundamental value in what Tesla is doing. What others are doing at Wall Street? Not so much.

Electric cars will continue to grow exponentially in the next decade or so. Prediction that half of new cars in ten years will be electric in my opinion is not far off. Tesla has a pretty good chance of grabbing biggest portion of that market share. The only constraint I am seeing for now is Tesla's own ability to produce that many cars. But others are somewhat behind and as off now that gap is only increasing.

Al1 | 17 juli 2017

Tesla is leader in terms of product innovation, safety, security, sustainability, performance, utility, infrastructure, cost per mile, and car AI.

That latter is developing at such a speed that all other cars made today except for Tesla will look like horses on the road. How does your model take it into equation?

Shock | 17 juli 2017

You gotta like the head of the company saying it's overpriced :)
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/17/elon-musk-teslas-stock-price-is-higher-th...

Tesla is like a lot tech companies. It could go belly up, it could explode into something that makes even its current stock price look like a ridiculous bargain.

I don't do individual stock trading. It's a fools game. Despite that, and against my better judgement, TSLA is one of the few stocks I have a specific interest in owning and could see buying it. Mainly because it's the only company I've actually been truly excited about in years.

SamO | 17 juli 2017

Perhaps you could have purchased when it was $27?

Not advice.

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