When do you think Tesla will hit 200K US deliveries (post Q4 2017 investor call)?

When do you think Tesla will hit 200K US deliveries (post Q4 2017 investor call)?

Well now that the bad news has been delivered (3 month additional delay for most) the $64,000 question is when do we think Tesla will hit 200K deliveries in the US? Ideally it would be July 1 (or later) but I think they'll hit it probably in April/May. July 1 would be ideal as far maximizing the federal tax credit for more people as that would extend 100% of the credit through the rest of 2018. If they hit it earlier in Q2 then the full credit would only last through September. Obviously this would factor into people's decision making process as far as waiting for "Late 2018" for either the SR battery and/or AWD.

MarylandS85 | 7 februari 2018

I don’t think anyone can answer this with certainty. My guess is like yours—that they’ll likely hit 200,000 US deliveries in the second quarter, which would mean a halving of the federal tax credit on Oct 1, reducing the benefit to all of those who want to wait for AWD or SR battery. If this is true, it would mean the LR battery version purchased today would effectively "only" cost $5,250 more than the SR battery version (rather than the $9,000 difference advertised). For this reason, I’m rethinking the possibility of getting the LR version rather than waiting. Perhaps this is what Tesla wants, to maximize profit—though that is the nefarious take on the current situation. More likely, Tesla isn’t price gouging us, production bottlenecks are a real thing, and they are doing the best they can.

stevenmaifert | 7 februari 2018

Tesla previously told us in Q3 2017, we delivered the 250,000th Tesla. They told us today they had 29,967 Q4 2017 deliveries. So by now, they have delivered well over 280,000 vehicles world wide. The trick is to guess how many of those were qualifying U.S. deliveries. I think they will hit the 200K mark this quarter.

WormtownKris | 7 februari 2018

One other smallish data point is that Inside EVs, who typically is pretty accurate with their projected Tesla sales numbers, pegged their January US Model X and S sales at about 700 and 800 respectively. So with their combined X/S 2018 sales target at around 100,000 vehicles, that would tell me that at least last month they funneled a lot of their produced vehicles out of the US. So if their projections are accurate, Tesla only sold ~3375 cars in the US last month. If they can continue to push cars outside the US, and don't focus heavily on US sales until the Model 3 production ramps, that *could* bode well for stretching out the tax credits. But I don't think they can reasonably hold up US sales (and buyers with cash in hand) too much, so that strategy can only go so far.

pisto234 | 7 februari 2018

@stevenmaifert Don't forget you have to by the PUP for an additional $5,000, so the LR cost an extra 10,250. I was hoping to get a LR without the upgrade.

stevenmaifert | 8 februari 2018

@pisto234 - True, but I don't think there is any shortage of U.S. reservations holders who wouldn't gladly go for the PUP and LR if they could just get "the invite".