Is Tesla timing the tax credit with change to Canada delivery estimates?

Is Tesla timing the tax credit with change to Canada delivery estimates?

This could push the 200K threshold into Q3, which means full credit into Q4.

Might be a silver lining for those who are mad about the delay - if deliveries are shifted to Canada to time the credit, would that make the wait less painful? :-)

Coastal Cruiser. | 8 februari 2018

I spotted that too. Not the article. But one of our regulars here mentioned in a comment that their delivery had moved forward in time whereas most others were reporting delivery pushed back.

I would bet a nickel on Q3 for US.

Coastal Cruiser. | 8 februari 2018

I meant one of our regulars, who lives in Canada.

JustSaying | 8 februari 2018


Tuning In | 8 februari 2018

Would this be bargaining or denial stage?

carlk | 8 februari 2018

That could certainly be an option. I just don't think Tesla would deliver the 200,000th US car in later part of a quarter even if it could.

bayareakid2008 | 8 februari 2018

Tuning, denial for sure. Why are people still paying attention to the delivery estimator?

bernard.holbrook | 8 februari 2018

I'm in Canada and my ETA has recently moved from Late 2018 to Mid 2018.

I am a non-owner, stood in line in Montreal. I selected AWD (because ice, snow, and Canada). No Canadian price was listed.

stevenmaifert | 8 februari 2018

Doubt it. It's all about maximizing revenue with as many highly optioned M3s they can sell.

Shock | 8 februari 2018

"Would this be bargaining or denial stage?"

There it is. That's the thread winning post.

KP in NPT | 8 februari 2018

@steven - they would still be maximizing revenue. Just diverting deliveries outside the US for a spell.

Because otherwise Bernard's estimate doesn't make much sense. That's how Canada reservers estimates changed - forward not back.

Shock you're canceling your reservation anyway. ;)

Shock | 8 februari 2018

"Shock you're canceling your reservation anyway. ;)"

Probably but I haven't yet ;)

seattlemag | 8 februari 2018

Thanks for the update, @Shock . Let us know when it changes from "probably" to "definitely", or the slim chance it goes from "probably" to "I changed my mind, cancellation rescinded"


stevenmaifert | 8 februari 2018

KP in NPT - Perhaps Tesla is just being nice to our friends to the North before any changes get made to NAFTA that might make the car more expensive for them :)

jamespompi | 8 februari 2018

I think it's an indirect benefit (potentially) rather than a company focus.

Iwantmy3 | 8 februari 2018

If I can help thousands of people save money by taking delivery of my model 3 earlier and delaying the U.S. tax credit limit being hit, well then

Help me help you!. I will very happily be of service!

andy.connor.e | 8 februari 2018

15 minutes could save you 15% or more in delivery time.

sp_tesla | 8 februari 2018

andy.connor.e | February 8, 2018
15 minutes could save you 15% or more in delivery time.

Very funny, Buffet would love it!

Haggy | 8 februari 2018

Musk said explicitly that he'd keep in mind how the timing affects who can get rebates and implied that he would, if possible, try to have the 200,000 threshold hit at the start of a quarter. If it can be done by interspersing Canadian orders, that's better than keeping cars on lots unsold until the following quarter.

SamO | 8 februari 2018

Yes. I had the same thought and have seen the US delivery numbers over since 2007, combined with 2500/week run rate being hit end of Q1 and then 5,000 run rate being hit at end of Q2.

This makes sense and will stimulate sales of Model S and X in Q3 and Q4 in ways that may shock. I'd expect that Model S and X will get upgraded 125kWh packs in 6-12 months with 2070 form factor batteries.

Tuning In | 8 februari 2018


There's enough issue with things that he was more explicit on and yet people are hung up on things that he implied years ago?

kmeslinger | 8 februari 2018

I wonder how upset U.S. AWD in-person first-day reservation folks will be when Canada gets AWD months faster.

MS-lover | 8 februari 2018

Not upset

El Mirio | 8 februari 2018

Tesla probably knows Canada market wants AWD to finalize an order, so they decided to open AWD up for them so they can sell cars, at good margins, while managing the tax credit for the U.S.. Seems a solid plan to maximize tax credit for U.S., ensure Canadians follow thru with orders and protect margins. Sounds like a win/win/win. | 8 februari 2018

3750 in additional tax break buys a lot of good will on the US side. If NAFTA falls apart, better to see our Canadian friends get some Tesla love before that.