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Don't sell your shares tomorrow!

Don't sell your shares tomorrow!

Make the shorts pay for playing the game with Tesla. The price will go through the roof and they will have to pay!
It will be one to remember. Truly epic.

Hold strong!

rdalcanto | 08. kan 2013

If you have the balls, sell first thing in the morning and buy back in the afternoon.... Unfortunately, I'm too chicken....

kilimats | 08. kan 2013

can someone explain in baby terms how the shorts player think ? im a stock noob

jnb | 08. kan 2013

They borrow the shares from a broker and sell them, with the proceeds going into their account. When they borrow them, they have to agree to repurchase them for the broker at a later date. If the stock goes down they repurchase the stock at a lower cost and keep the difference between the original proceeds and what they paid to repurchase them. If the stocks go up, they still have to buy them back but now it costs them more to buy them back than they made when they sold them originally, so they have to kick in their own money to make up the difference. There is also normally an interest payment to the broker tied to the price of the stock. So, the more the stock goes up and stays up the more the "shorts" lose on the stock and at some point will sell at a high price to cut losses, sending the stock higher.

kilimats | 08. kan 2013

jmb..THANK YOU, that made sense ! I'll hold my small 76 shares count then ahah

kback | 08. kan 2013

Better reason not to sell tomorrow - TSLA will keep going up. This is just the beginning. In the short run, Consumer Reports' test drive is published tomorrow, and it is expected to be very positive. This influences many people, as they are about as objective as you get in the publishing world. In the long run, Tesla will continue to succeed and prove the naysayers wrong. This is the beginning of the electric car revolution. Let's all stay in and make money for being early believers/adopters!

jnb | 08. kan 2013

Sure. In the last para, meant to say that they are forced to buy high, therefore sending this stock price up.

agiangone | 08. kan 2013

$69 After hours...

Jamon | 08. kan 2013

I'm with you on the solidarity - but I've got to tell you, if it reaches $150 in the next week or so I'm going to have to sell!!

NKYTA | 08. kan 2013

@Jamon
When it gets to $150, sell half and play with "house money". ;-)

joepruitt | 08. kan 2013

Already made a bunch from 34 to 46 and am sorry I sold. I bought in again and doubled my holdings yesterday at 55. Not making that mistake again... I'm in for the long haul now! B-)

PorfirioR | 08. kan 2013

This could be the ultimate self-licking ice cream cone:

Funding a Tesla vehicle with profits from Tesla shares.

Captain_Zap | 08. kan 2013

@Jamon

That is what I said about Microsoft in 1989. Regretted it ever since.

noel.smyth | 08. kan 2013

in at 34ish, staying for long haul. this could be a 10 bagger over a decade!

zero2hide | 08. kan 2013

Am holding onto mine long-term. For me It's like "voting" for Elon and his excellent CA team. Looking forward to the serious jump in price tomorrow!

Jamon | 08. kan 2013

Okay, I drank the cool aid a long time ago and I love my car and everything about the company. But $150/share in the next couple weeks seems unreasonably high to me. If it gets that high that fast, I believe it would have to pull back significantly sometime in 2013 (probably rather quickly). There are still so many chances to stumble on their road to success, and there are plenty out there who will jump all over any opportunity to bring them down. In the long run, I see no reason they couldn't be the number one car manufacturer on the planet with a stratospheric share price, but that's years in the future.

With that being said, what do you think is a reasonable share price right now? $150 would be something like $18B market cap. That's 1/3 the market cap of GM. Long term I expect them to surpass GM, but is it reasonable (sustainable) right now??

Aleksandyr | 08. kan 2013

I too sold early. I would expect some dip in the next coming weeks. This is getting ahead of itself. Eventually this will come down a bit , the question is when. It may make sense to short if it gets to 100, but who knows. Not sure this is the same as microsoft. But imagine if there is some bad press, one car catches fire or there is a recall. Just saying that taking profit is always just that, profit. I don't want to get swept up in the hysteria right now. I will continue to sell puts to the shorties and collect my shares if the price drops

SamO | 08. kan 2013

@Jamon

GM has margins of ~ 10%. Yes Tesla is only selling 20K cars/year but with 17% margins that will eventually land in the 25% range, then each car sold for 80K, nets $20,000.

Thus when GM sells a $25K dollar car, their profit @ 10% is $2,500.

Which means Tesla is selling the equivalent of 160,000 $25,000 cars per year on a profit basis.

Suddenly Tesla doesn't look too small.

gary.greene | 08. kan 2013

Hey, I put down my deposit, bought the stock at 32 in July 2012, paid and had my car delivered in Feb. 2013, and today bought more stock at $55.65 anticipating/before the quarterly report. To me this is all a no brainer. I am in this and will remain in this for the long run. This company is the apple of automobiles. Love to all my Tesla buddies-victory dance baby!!

Jamon | 08. kan 2013

@Sam I hear ya. I love the 25% profit margin, and look forward to Tesla taking over the world someday. But GM had revenue of $150B in 2012. Tesla could sell 30,000 cars at $80k for revenue of $2.4B. Even 100% profit margins wouldn't get in the ballpark of 1/3 GM's market cap. And what happens if GM has to recall one of their models, or has to shut down a single factory for a couple months due to a natural disaster. I don't know the answer, but I guarantee it's much less damaging to the stock price than Tesla having to recall their one and only car model, or temporarily shutting down their one and only production facility.

Jamon | 08. kan 2013

PS - I'm not trying to be a naysayer - just trying to wrap my head around what is a reasonable market value for Tesla right now so that I can make informed decisions about buying or selling shares and/or options if the short squeeze heads into overdrive in the next couple weeks.

PorfirioR | 08. kan 2013

@Sam, @Jamon
Margins from vehicle sales might be much greater than that. The 25% is just the target margin on the sale of the vehicle to the consumer. Tesla also makes money on the green credits (as much as $35K per vehicle).

I am also guessing that their licensing deals with Toyota and Mercedes Benz carry some handsome profits.

However, I too do not see $150 per share as realistic in the short term. I will be happy if they break $100 by the end of the year. Even that, will be a stretch, in my opinion.

Anthony H | 08. kan 2013

Friends, everything is volatile now.

...and it has been for 10+ years.

nickjhowe | 08. kan 2013

The big unknown in this is the impact of the short squeeze. Looking at the fundamentals it is difficult to see it going to 150 soon, but with (depending on how you calculate it) as much as 110% of the stock shorted, we are not in normal fundamentals territory.

Robert22 | 08. kan 2013

Would you sell Apple to buy Tesla? No consensus at work today.

Anthony H | 08. kan 2013

@nick, I agree. And that is why we should just pause, and breathe.

Short-term play... or something longer-term?

xradr | 08. kan 2013

If you believe in the long term view of the company ... consider if the stock goes rapidly and dramatically (like to $150 in few weeks), keep your shares. If you are really truly compelled, buy options like some 6 month puts or longer term leaps. This hedging will give you a little solace if price drops (sell the puts, but keep the shares).

I would urge people to stay long this company if you believe in the product and their ability to execute on their plans. There are very positive long term trends shaping up (model X, Gen III mass market car, tesla pick up truck). There are few companies that can execute as nearly flawlessly as Tesla has done in last 5 years (all things considered).

Personally, I'm all long right now and have volume averaged up as I think 5 years from now this stock will be worth significantly more that what it's worth today.

Will leave with two thoughts from the oracle of Omaha (not specific to TSLA) ...

- "Forever is a good holding period. When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."

- "The company is more important than price"

Go TESLA!

portia | 08. kan 2013

did you read the annual report for 2012 which talks about Elon's comp, and the 10 tranches which have to be met before his options from his 2012 CEO grant of more than 5 million shares are vested completely, they have a goal of market cap at 43.2 Billion, and the last tranch being they sold 300,000 cars. even if this takes 10 years, the stock would have to go up more than 10 times from his exercise price of $31.17.
this is around page 23 of the report.
so, are you holding out for the long haul?
would you sell google to buy Tesla?

jonesxander | 08. kan 2013

Ahhh. What a lovely lovely day. Birds are singing, sun is shining. I don't think I'm alone here.

I am also a stock noob. Beginner's luck? I don't think so :)

jonesxander | 08. kan 2013

Oh yes, I forgot the point of the thread once I read everyone's posts. Do not sell your shares tomorrow unless it does break that crazy unicorn number lol.

Tesla is the first stock I've ever bought and sold though starting July 2012...so don't take my word for it :)

Discoducky | 08. kan 2013

I'm actually going to buy more on the opening most likely. Feed the fire!

xradr | 08. kan 2013

@ portia,

- yes holding for the long haul, indefinite time period.

- as a word of caution, stock picking and trading are more difficult than investing. With the former, you have to make two correct decisions (one to buy and one to sell). When you couple that to trading one company for another, you have to make 4 right decisions (2 buys and 2 sells).

- I must leave timing the markets to those much smarter than myself. I will stick with steady as she goes investing in companies that I believe in.

- in short, sell google to buy tesla? not for me ... keep google and buy tesla.

Jamon | 08. kan 2013

+1 xradr & xander. I had so much fun watching the after hours stock price climb! Biggest Tesla grin I've had since picking up my car at the factory in January!!

Robert22 | 08. kan 2013

If you put 50K into the stock two weeks ago and sold today you just bought your p85 at half price. Nice....

kilimats | 08. kan 2013

@ Robert,

2 weeks ago itwas @ $50 and at closure today it was $55, not sure where you get your numbers

If say tomorrow it remains at $70, you would have made a profit of $20k if you bought 50k worth of stock at $50/share

not sure where the half price comes in, i'm a noob too with the market so correct me if im wrong please

xradr | 08. kan 2013

@ robert & killmats,

Killmats, agree. Numbers are slightly off.

- 2 weeks ago, price was about $50 a shares. 1000 shares sold today in aftermarket at top price ~ $71 / share would have netted you approximately $21K (pretax).

- short term capital gains, on a real basis would result in tax rate at ordinary income. This would be a rate at 10% - 35%.

- I would assume the average person in the 10-25% rates are not buying this car (but I could be wrong). Let's assume 25% short term capital gains tax. On a net basis you'd be at 15.75K profit.

- So on a real basis you'd have about 20% off of a new P85 (or less).

- but point taken, investing in the company is/was a good investment.

GO TESLA!!!!!!

xradr | 08. kan 2013

one slight mistake above, 2013 upper tax rate is 39.6% for highest bracket for short term capital gains (considered taxable at ordinary income).

kilimats | 08. kan 2013

^ Unless the money gained is in a TFSA (Tax Free Saving Account but Canadian only i guess) which means no tax at all !!! right ?

Robert22 | 08. kan 2013

@kilimats-

Oops, wrong chart. The last chance you would have had to pick it up at 35.25 was March 19th. My apologies.

Evoc | 09. kan 2013

I realise that many people here are TSLA shareholders, but really this sort of post is out of place here.

In Australia this sort of post on any public forum would be looked upon as bordering on financial advice and even on sharetrading forums would be seen as ramping and probably disallowed.

Personally I don't care about the shareprice of any company. It's all rigged at the moment anyhow and anyone celebrating a 15,000 DOW etc is delusional. The economy has not changed since 2008.

There is MORE not less debt in the world now compared to then. Nothing has improved. Nothing can improve in this corrupt usurious system.

Think on this.... will the US $16 TRILLION debt EVER be paid? When?

If the answer is no, and it is... then you know that it's all going to collapse like a house of cards and more suddenly than what you will believe. It's not if, it's when.

Andre-nl | 09. kan 2013

Went in @34.90 and holding on tight to my precious.

And not to forget at the same time when buying Tesla, stepped in another one of Musk's adventures: SolarCity. Bought @15, they're now @24. Perhaps not as sexy as Tesla right now, but still good money.

dborn @nsw.au | 09. kan 2013

Evoc - I am in Australia too and I agree with the thrust of your argument. BUT have you ever seen price movements like on the US market? The key is to not be too greedy and get out with a handsome profit. I too am a shareholder in TSLA. Should I get to the point of paying for my car on profits, I will sell then.

Mark Z | 09. kan 2013

Well, the CU road test has been published on their web site. Good news and bad. The score at 99 is sensational. Here is the frustration with the report.

"...we can't recommend the Model S until we have sufficient reliability data."

It will be interesting how the news media covers this.

GeirT | 09. kan 2013

@ Evoc.

Spot on! However as long as Helicopter-Ben keeps on dumping billions there is liquidity and institutional investors (the banksters!) have to put that money to work. Drives the stock prices up as we have seen proof of lately as there is no economic growth to justify. The market is not allowed to work, the bubble is building and the density of the soufflé is getting less and less and bound to burst, sooner or later. That said, TM has proven to be a solid company with a great product with more to come, and is making money by its own merit. As far I am concerned I believe they have a bright future in the automotive sector. That is why I believe that TM will be repeat of Apple, and I stay loooong on my shares.

ColonyGolfer | 09. kan 2013

Listen, if you own this stock at anywhere between $20 and $50 and the stock is at $69, put in a stop-loss sell order at $62 and if the stock plummets, your gains are protected, somewhat. If the stock goes to $75, raise the stop price to $68 and so on. This is a much better plan than announcing you are going to sell at a specific price and get back in when it falls. If it keeps rising, you are probably not going to buy it back and may miss a significant run-up. Also, psycologically, it is difficult to pay $90 for the same stock you previously paid $30 or $40 for.

bradslee | 09. kan 2013

@dvclifford,

Thus, for a fast growing stock like TSLA, the best strategy would be buy-and-hold. If we MS owners believe in the greatest car we have ever had and believe in Tesla team under Elon's great leadership, TSLA will be no doubt next Apple in our time. I will hold on my TSLA stock shares (which I bought between June 2012 and January 2013) until I see the realization of Elon's goal of $44B in valuation of TSLA. By the way, the incredible gain on paper from my TSLA stock shares has already paid off my MS. I am sure that many years ahead, the gain from my TSLA stock shares will buy me a number of MS or MS next versions! Go TM!

ColonyGolfer | 09. kan 2013

bradslee@yahoo.com .....My Model S is also paid for with the stock gain.....but you really should protect your downside. A tender issue where one piece of bad news, battery, legal, EV credit politics, etc, can send the price south. The stop-loss I put on my stock ownership is cheaper than the Geico I put on my vehicle...I have gauranteed my vehicle will be paid off, per se, you have not. If the stock dips to $30 or so, I will simply pick my re-entry point and buy back in. So much easier today with free stop-loss protection and $7 per trade commissions.

bradslee | 09. kan 2013

@dvclifford,

Thanks for your advise and will consider it. I think that unless something really bad happens, TSLA is hard to go down to $30 again and I certainly wish it not-:)

kilimats | 09. kan 2013

holding pretty good so far

Brian H | 09. kan 2013

New all-time high, $71.40.

RNB | 09. kan 2013

after hours last night 72.99 printed and I expect will be taken out soon. So all time hi 72.99

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