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How Many Cars does TM Currently Produce in a Week?

How Many Cars does TM Currently Produce in a Week?

I have read they can produce from 500-1000 cars a week, yet I also read that just in China they have over 4000 reservations and that can take over 6 months to fulfill, I assume that is not including transit time. LA to China is only 15-18 days on the water. So how many US Reservations per month 2500-3000? And in Europe and Japan add another 1000. So for arguments sake 8000 reservations a month, producing 4000 a month should only be a two month waiting time. Tesla must be closer to just 400-500 cars manufactured per week as the delay from ordering to delivering seems to be about 4 months. Why not fire up the plant 7 days a week or run a second shift a few days a week? Any thoughts on this?

Captain_Zap | 01. oktober 2014

The last I read was that they were running at 700-800 a week as of a couple weeks ago and they are ramping up to 1000 a week. The last I heard was that capacity is 3000 per week when all is said and done with the current line and X in production.

Tesla appears to match the production rate with the rate of supplies coming in and with the pace of deliveries by destination.

bejachb | 01. oktober 2014

Thanks for the input.

Well X is not being produced at this time, so at 750 a week the wait should not be 4+ months. Other manufacturers in the auto as well as other industries use the JIT process on inventories and production and do not normally have such delays. There must be something else that is slowing down the manufacturing process!

Jolinar | 01. oktober 2014

it's not only about production capacity, but also supply constraints...

johncrab | 01. oktober 2014

JIT is certainly a factor. Any car company needs some local stock in case a train derails somewhere, etc., but JIT is a precarious method if it does not have some buffering built in up and down the supply chain. As Tesla's production grows so will their influence over suppliers and the numbers alone will smooth out the JIT process. All of this means that ramping up has to be done quite carefully to avoid getting into a start/stop situation.

txgreen | 01. oktober 2014

Not enough. [August order, no VIN, December delivery according to dashboard, no grin]

AlMc | 01. oktober 2014

I am confident they are producing 1,000/week. My confidence comes from the fact that TM/EM guided for 13,000 deliveries in Q4. So, they need to be at least at 1,000/wk now and 1,300-1,5000/week exiting 2014.

DTsea | 01. oktober 2014

TX green stop complaining. Ordered 11/2011 delivered 02/13. You are getting your car FAST.

txgreen | 01. oktober 2014

not fast enough

georgehawley.fl.us | 01. oktober 2014

800 is a good number at this time based on Tesla unofficial statement but likely to grow during the 4th quarter(guessing on that point)

Brian H | 01. oktober 2014

What were the July-Aug-Sept rates of battery cell delivery and pack production?

Captain_Zap | 01. oktober 2014

I got the impression that they were going to push to 1000 towards the end of September, but whether it happened or not known to anyone but Tesla. Things are very fluid and changing quickly.

Blu Zap | 01. oktober 2014

Yes things are changing quickly. We all saw the delays in Q3 that came from reconfiguring the production line. But now the MS productivity has improved. Since they are not producing MX yet, it is all about MS.
They are producing 65 MSs per shift X 2 shifts per day = 130 per day. I know in September they were running 7 days/week to meet Q3 production targets, especially to make up for the August shutdown.
TM will likely continue with 2 shifts/day. Weekends? Not sure on that. 3rd shift? Not likely. Time for maintenance and restocking.

So we know they've got 650/week. Will they ramp up to 910/week running 7 days/week?

They just built my MS over last weekend. Into Production Thursday. Ready to pick-up late Monday. Actual delivery on Tuesday. They are getting quick.

Captain_Zap | 01. oktober 2014

Where did you get your info?

carlk | 01. oktober 2014

I believe battery is no longer a restrain. It was reported they are even manufacturing static battery packs at Fremont plant now.

Blu Zap | 01. oktober 2014

Factory tour. No photos. But read a white board facing the tour group.

Captain_Zap | 01. oktober 2014

@carlk

I do wonder if there was a supply issue at first with the new steering columns, turn signals and accessories at first.

bejachb | 02. oktober 2014

What worries me is one waits 4+ months for the car, and then some idiot runs a light and totals the car. Now one has to wait another 4 months or resort to buying an ICE car. TM should institute a Total Loss Guarantee; in the event your Tesla is involved in a Total Loss Accident that was no fault of the Tesla Driver (backed up with insurance documents and police reports) they should move you to the head of the production line. I know of several potential buyers that are holding back on purchase due to this fact alone. Any thoughts?

txgreen | 02. oktober 2014

@dave, shut up and get back in line!!!! :)

I feel your pain, and I still ain't got no stinking VIN.

Captain_Zap | 02. oktober 2014

I think there will be more answers next week. There might be good reason you don't have a VIN yet txgreen!

There might be more variations of a VIN number available right away!

@tjmelka

Didn't you have to sign an NDA?
If that really was the number for just the Model S, that adds more fuel for speculation regarding next week's announcement.

bejachb | 02. oktober 2014

@txgreen

I am in line, just do not want to have to be inline again!

txgreen | 02. oktober 2014

@Cap'n Z, I think you are right. I expect some announcements, changes to ordering pages and perhaps some opportunity to change before all orders are thrown into a great big production algorithm and we get VINs and new dates.
Will I still have fingernails? or even fingers!!!? Who needs Hollywood - the suspense is killing me.

tes-s | 02. oktober 2014

@tx - December delivery (vs October or November) is because most US cars are delivered in the last month of the quarter.

Order a car today (1 to 2 months later than your order) and Tesla still says December delivery.

shipkj.fl.us | 02. oktober 2014

Got my VIN 59377 over night - Aug 15 order, since yesterday back to Nov delivery. There is hope :)

bejachb | 02. oktober 2014

Maybe they are back on track as I confirmed on 8-11, VIN 56607 assigned on 9-1, Orig Del Was October, then Dec, now still shows NOV.

gallenfam.az.us | 02. oktober 2014

I ordered my Model S July 25. I originally had an October delivery date on my dashboard but it changed to November in early September. I have a VIN in the mid 57000 range. I wonder now if it will get pushed to December?

Nexxus | 03. oktober 2014

Don't forget, they are building the Beta version of the Model X at this time on the same assembly line. How many? Don't know. With the differences between the two models, I would expect slower production times to start and then ramp up as the Betas get out of the way. But I would imagine the first actual production models of the "X" to start sometime in January for March 1st delivery.

sbeggs | 03. oktober 2014

@Go_Peddle,
I thought they were using the old line for beta Model X, while using the new lines for Model S right now.

jjs | 03. oktober 2014

@dave I think that is a great idea. Pretty easy to monitor. You get an insurance company to say your vehicle is totaled. You get to jump to the front of the line. (No....I have not had an accident and am not trying to jump the line! :) )

This is in keeping with Tesla's prior behavior of taking care of their customers. Great car, great service, great way of getting you back in a Tesla after an accident that totals your car.

SamO | 03. oktober 2014

X prototype has been shown.

Alphas are coming off the line.

Betas in a "few months"

Then production.

AmpedRealtor | 03. oktober 2014

Q: HOW MANY CARS DOES TM CURRENTLY PRODUCE IN A WEEK?

A: Not nearly enough.

bejachb | 03. oktober 2014

@jjs

I will tweet the idea to Elon now!

Red Sage ca us | 03. oktober 2014

JIT -- Just In Time Delivery, 'An inventory control system that replenishes and delivers supplies/products to a manufacturer/retailer just as a current supply is depleted.'

txgreen grumbled, "not fast enough"

I'm sure that Lexus, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz dealerships have something on the showroom floor right now, "With YOUR name on it!"

dave said, "TM should institute a Total Loss Guarantee; in the event your Tesla is involved in a Total Loss Accident that was no fault of the Tesla Driver (backed up with insurance documents and police reports) they should move you to the head of the production line. I know of several potential buyers that are holding back on purchase due to this fact alone. Any thoughts?"

Here the thing is... Certain states specifically forbid automobile manufacturers from selling insurance of any sort -- not even an extended warranty. What you describe would effectively be a form of insurance. Tesla Motors has no interest in becoming an insurance company.

In fact, Tesla doesn't need your repeat business. "You bought a car, thanks. Take good care of it, will you? We are busy building cars for everyone else now." They are trying to literally put a Tesla in every driveway in the world. Get in line, or buy something else.

RanjitC | 03. oktober 2014

Actually this is the best business model in the world. If you have to wait for it, it must be great! Plus the business doesn't get stuck with inventory sitting on the lot for 90+ days. Ask any ICE car dealer.

bejachb | 03. oktober 2014

#1 It is not insurance in any form, and as being an attorney (in this field) it would be legal in all states at this time.

#2 JIT is great but the production rates are just to slow, even admitted by Elon himself in many interviews.

#3 In fact, Tesla doesn't need your repeat business. "You bought a car, thanks. Take good care of it, will you? We are busy building cars for everyone else now." They are trying to literally put a Tesla in every driveway in the world. Get in line, or buy something else.

They will never be able to put a Tesla in every driveway with a 4+ month delay, many larger companies have failed with the attitude of telling customers to buy elsewhere, thank goodness this is just @Red Sage's attitude and not that of TM.

#4 Some people on these Forums would be happy if Tesla Motors Crapped on their heads, all they would say just go to the SC and they will clean you up and even give you a free wash.

We all know that the car is a great innovation but it is far from perfect, those that seem to be combative with every idea presented are the same type of people that say "little Johnny is such a nice boy, he would never harm anyone" right after little Johnny caused the death of multiple people at his school. Come on people wake up the car has several faults and in this price range most of them should no longer be an issue. Constant repairs minor or major, delayed production times are only going to cost the company major $$$ as they get closer to their goal of 100k Cars a year. One does not purchase a car no matter the price to constantly have it serviced regardless of the time it takes or if it is free. I know a few here are going to say than "why did you buy it" or buy something else, well luckily I have the luxury of being able to wait, but I know many people that do not and therefor will pass on Tesla at this time and I am sure that many others on these pages also know of many people that will not wait as well. Bottom line lost sales equal lost profits: it may not show up on the balance sheet now as times are good for TM, but if it continues it can be assured to have a negative effect on the company.

bejachb | 03. oktober 2014

Oh, and for all the English Teachers and Education Majors I hope all the spelling is correct!

bejachb | 03. oktober 2014

I guess someone at TM is reading as my dashboard went from November to January!

Brian H | 03. oktober 2014

dave;
Conflated confusion. Elon has said one TM goal is cars that never need servicing.

mclary | 03. oktober 2014

Is this a joke? I don't know.....how many?

mclary | 03. oktober 2014

Oh.

Flagged!!!!!

mclary | 03. oktober 2014

Please don't bother Elon with these silly questions!

He has more important things to tend to!

Captain_Zap | 03. oktober 2014

dave's not here

mclary | 03. oktober 2014

Dear Dave:

YOUR AN IDIOT!

Regards,

Tesla Forum

rfriess | 03. oktober 2014

And mclary doesn't know the difference between your and you're.

bejachb | 04. oktober 2014

Mclary, is just one of those people, like I mentioned above!

Red Sage ca us | 04. oktober 2014

dave wrote, "It is not insurance in any form, and as being an attorney (in this field) it would be legal in all states at this time."

I was merely explaining what I believe may be the reasons for not doing a 'Total Loss Guarantee' program such as you suggest. The problem is that these things are typically interpreted by regulators who are not lawyers -- and that's only when they are allowed to interpret them. Most often, state insurance regulators simply do as they are told by politicians -- who don't care what the 'spirit of the law' may be, even if they are lawyers themselves. Besides, you expressly asked if we hand 'any thoughts' on the subject. You didn't ask that they all be in the affirmative.

I noted the definition of 'Just In Time Delivery' (JIT) for the sake of any who come by the thread and don't know what the term means.

dave wrote, "They will never be able to put a Tesla in every driveway with a 4+ month delay, many larger companies have failed with the attitude of telling customers to buy elsewhere..."

Once again, I think you my not have understood my intent. That tends to happen when I write in shorthand instead of grand soliloquies. Cadillac, AUDI, Lincoln, BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz, et al, thrive on repeat business. They market their cars as being exclusive, while Tesla Motors intends to be inclusive. They want to inspire the notion that their cars are a rarity, while Tesla Motors intends their cars to be ubiquitous. They have decided their market has a narrow focus, on a specific pool of potential buyers -- and no one else. Tesla Motors has decided their market will be -- everyone.

If, by 2020 Tesla Motors is manufacturing as many as 700,000 cars per year... If, by 2024, they are building around 1,400,000 cars per year... If, by 2028 they manage to get to 3,000,000 cars per year... That would still amount to perhaps 0.7%, 1.4%, or 3.0% of worldwide sales. It is the other 97% that the company needs to convince they should go electric, one car at a time. If they are able to garner as much as 10% of the worldwide market for personal transportation in the next 10-to-15 years, it will be an absolute miracle.

dave wrote, "Bottom line lost sales equal lost profits: it may not show up on the balance sheet now as times are good for TM, but if it continues it can be assured to have a negative effect on the company."

I don't believe it is a fair, rational, or reasonable demand that Tesla Motors "should move you to the head of the production line" after an accident, as a condition of purchase. The Customer is always right. Someone who says they aren't going to buy your products is not a Customer. I would take them at their word and move on to someone who actually wants to be my Customer.

What's that saying again? "We do NOT negotiate with terrorists." Making irrational, unreasonable, and unfair demands as a potential Customer is tantamount to making terrorist demands from the perspective of those in Customer Service.

bejachb | 04. oktober 2014

@Red Sage

We can agree to disagree, the easiest solution to the problem of delivery times is to increase production! TM will never be able to reach your suggested number of manufactured cars in a year. As at those levels the wait will be over a year or two, besides you and a few others, most will not even look at TM for a vehicle.

Regards,

@dave

Captain_Zap | 04. oktober 2014

Never say never.

bejachb | 04. oktober 2014

@Captain_Zap

Never unless they decrease delivery times, as a stock holder I welcomed TM to produce at those suggested levels. But I am also a realist and the waiting game gets old and as per Execs at TM as well as analysts they are aware of this issue.

Red Sage ca us | 04. oktober 2014

dave said, "TM will never be able to reach your suggested number of manufactured cars in a year."

That's the spirit! Oh, wait... No it isn't!

;-)

JB Straubel indicated that Tesla Motors intends to get capacity at Fremont to 700,000 units by 2019. Elon Musk has indicated that he intends to manufacture cars in China within the next four-to-five years. Elon has also said that in a similar time frame, Tesla may also be manufacturing cars in Europe as well.

If a Chinese factory is open in 2018, it may have a capacity of 350,000 to 500,000 units. If a European factory is opened in 2020, it too could have a capacity of 500,000 units. Allowing time to ramp up production, Tesla could be at 1,500,000 to 2,200,000 vehicles per year by 2022.

A second Gigafactory should be in North America by 2019. A third Gigafactory could be built in Europe by 2022. Panasonic could turn over their Chinese production to deliver battery cells to Tesla's Chinese factory, so no need to ship across the Pacific anymore.

The Model S 2.0 would be introduced for sale in 2020. The Tesla Model P pickup truck would be revealed in 2020 for sale in 2022. All this, and so far Tesla has not expanded operations to either South America or Africa.

As the cost of battery cells goes down, while their energy density increases, Tesla will find it much easier to manufacture a larger quantity of vehicles over the course of the next decade. Just. Watch.

bejachb | 04. oktober 2014

And I am going to win the Lottery in 2020

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