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Real Long Term Cost vs. Battery life

Real Long Term Cost vs. Battery life

let me start by saying two things:

a) I am very very excited to received my Tesla Model S
b) despite the questions below - I have placed my own money on this car…

Question and thoughts center around the longevity of the battery (a question no one can answer) and cost of replacement

1. we know the cost to replace an 85 kwh battery is ~$12,000
2. we know the warranty is 8 years/unlimited mileage
3. we know batteries maximum charge degrade over time
4. eventually it will be worth while to replace the battery to get back to the vehicle's original capabilities

therefore I believe we have the consider the cost of the battery replacement in the annual cost to "fuel" the vehicle and if you do this the cost to run the car per-mile vs. an ICE car by tesla's own numbers is not very favorable

Assumptions: 15,000 miles year, ICE 22 MPG, gas = $3.80 gallon, kwh's = $0.11/kwh

by Tesla's own numbers @ http://www.teslamotors.com/goelectric#savings
ICE Car = $2591 year in fuel cost $0.17 per-mile in fuel
Model S = $467 year in fuel cost $0.03 per-mile in fuel

that is until you figure in the cost of replacing the fuel tank at the end of an 8 year life span (the battery) - for which you have to budget $1500 year - making the cost of the Tesla's fuel system $1967/year or $0.13 per-mile in fuel…

now I know there are other costs the ICE car has - but for purposes of this thought exercise let's focus on the "fuel" system cost and treat the battery as the moral equivalent of the "fuel tank". Which in an ICE car doesn't shrink, or need to be replaced in 8 years.

Even a 16 year replacement is $750/year in "fuel" cost to the battery…that still seems to be far less of an advantage than most people would initially consider?

Are there estimates of what the maximum charge of an 85 kwh battery will be in 8 years? What % a year will we as customer lose? How much will my fuel tank shrink each year?

I'm thinking I would replace the battery after it loses 20-25% (300 miles - 75 miles of loss = 225 miles of range - time to swap batteries) of it's maximum range, and if that happens in less than 8 years my fuel-system costs now approach the cost of driving an ICE vehicle…

I'm still excited to get my car, and I'm committed to the success of EV's - but I'm still having trouble with the actual economic benefits when the total life cycle cost is considered - in this case the full costs given the battery replacement cost amortized into the car seem to dramatically change the cost curves.

thoughts, comments, if it takes 20 years to lose 10% capacity then we're good, however if it's more like 20% in 6 years I think the battery cost make the car more expensive to drive.

alan | 23. februar 2013

$0.03 per mile is completely unrealistic, at least with California (PG&E).

I posted elsewhere, but here's the real deal. We have a 4.8 kW solar system on our house, use the E-6 rate (time of day billing) but may change to E-9.

Our baseline electrical rate is $0.10 per kWh. BUT... my Model S sucks 20 miles of range just sitting in the driveway, and that alone consumes my baseline household electricity allocation of 7 kWh/day. That alone costs about $800 per year (to go nowhere).

My actual weighted average cost of electricity for the car is between $0.25 and $0.35 / kWh. I use about 350 Wh / mile driven, so that means that my operating costs are more like $0.08 to $0.12 per mile for electricity, which is 3-4 times what I "expected".

I have looked into getting a dedicated meter just for the Model S, which PG&E will do, but at my house it will be an expensive and elaborate installation so at the moment I'm not going to pursue that. But supposedly there will be a new EV rate available sometime in 2013 which will offer time of day billing without tiered pricing - so flat rate of about $0.11 / kWh if you charge after midnight. Of course that requires the Mobile App to support time of day charging, which it does not support right now.

It's still a great and amazing car, but much more expensive to operate than advertised... careful.

Hogfighter | 23. februar 2013

Interesting topic. If you are buying a MS for the batteries, you are overpaying.

Every car I have ever bought was essentially worthless after 10 years. If my MS is worth more than $0 after that time, I'll be ahead of the game.

I'm fairly certain that my Tesla grin will also still be around after 10 years, albeit with some slight degradation.

Edneff | 23. februar 2013

I agree about the cost/mile. Here in NJ elec costs about .20/kwh. I'm not that great at math, but I think if you get 350wh/mile in the MS, that comes out to about $.07/mile. An ICE getting 30 mpg like my hybrid costs about $.125/mile. So the MS will lower my energy per mile cost by not quite half. I don't even want to consider the cost of replacing the battery. I look at that as a donation to the environment.

tsx_5 | 23. februar 2013

Just an observation...

People make a lot of assumption, which can be a dangerous thing (noting that assumptions make an ASS out of U and ME).

The worst is that battery technology is going to make significant changes over the next decade. As far as assumptions go -- that a really bad one.

Contrary to Lush1's wishfull thinking, battery improvements have been very modest -- and it's not due to a lack of trying. http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/the_future_battery and http://gigaom.com/2010/10/06/want-moores-law-for-batteries-go-find-an-as... talk a bit about this. History says about 5 to 8 percent per year (maybe) -- which means a doubling of capability in 10 years. So our beloved 85KW Model S would be able to have a usable range of about 350 miles (see other threads that say the true safe number for the 85Kw is 177 miles in all conditions). Which, given todays lack of recharging infrastructe, means I still would need to keep my ICE :{

DonS | 23. februar 2013

@riceguy -Definitely yes.
Cars are almost always bought in the order of:
Step 1) Decide what you like
step 2) Convince your self (and spouse) that it makes sense

That being the case my rough estimate is:
1) If Tesla goes out of business in 5 years or less, I'll be kicking myself.
2) If I keep the car >10 years, and Tesla is still around to support it, I'll be ecstatic. If I mange to make liberal use of free charging, this can shorten a year or two.

I'd never pay up front for the battery replacement option. It is a huge premium for locking in a guaranteed price. I prefer to wait and see what the real choices are when I need it. If batteries really improve anywhere near predictions, the current cells will be out of production by then.

kenliles | 23. februar 2013

@ tsx-%
No, it's exactly due to the lack of trying, which has changed an order of magnitude in recent years. Most conservative estimates now are for twice what you quote 10-15% improvement per year (without a game changing break thru which are a definite possibility); Then in your last assumption, you assume 10 years from now, we have 'todays lack of recharging infrastructure' - that's not even a remote possibility, much less the most likely scenario. All told I'd say you're off by a factor of 2 or 3;

Also, someone may have already mentioned this - I just scanned the thread; But OP, if your going to count an 8-10 year life part (car battery) into the equation for operational fuel costs, then you have to count a complete engine replace or rebuild for ICE over that same period (and likely much more- transmission, etc.)- the difference in EV is the motor will never wear out, only the battery.

I disagree with loading an 8-10 life part into the operational costs for this reason. Most people right-off 90% of any vehicle cost over that period with minimal residual value at that point. An EV on the other hand may well carry a much higher value than scrap- since replacing the battery (at a now lower cost) get's you a nearly new car or simply keep driving it at lower range. For example what is the actual life of the battery if 40-50% range is acceptable? Might be 20 years, more? What would an ICE car be doing in that same time period?
Also, in terms of stationary operating costs, keep in mind an ICE also bricks if you don't use it for a long period of time- you can't just let it sit for 2 years without engine damage.

Bottom line for me is, life's too short; I'm with Lush- enjoy the car for what it offers

tsx_5 | 23. februar 2013

kenliles,

I would love to see where you have seen an order of magnitude changes in battery capacity - please share!

Eleonor2002 | 23. februar 2013

Let see, using the same algoritm, can I make a reason not to buy a ICE car?

1. the cost of replacement of a motor and transmision is more the $12,000. The labor is expensive, you need a high skill mechanic that is expensive.
2. we know the warranty is 3 years 36000 miles. no manufacturer will give you 8 years warranty with unlimited miles.
3. we know the motor and transmission degrades over time.
4. eventually it will be worth while to replace the motor and transmission to get back to the vehicle's original capabilities.

No manufacturer is giving you free 4 gallons of gas every 200 miles. No parking garage will give you free gas with parking. NO gas station will give you 30% discount if you pump nights. And no employer will give you free gas...

tsx_5 | 23. februar 2013
Eleonor2002 | 23. februar 2013

You forget about the motor warranty...

kenliles | 23. februar 2013

@tsx_5
I said 10-15% per year in battery performance improvement over next 8 years- twice your quote from a history perspective; It's real simply, if you don't believe that science, then stick with an ICE car; what's the big deal - live your own belief system

kenliles | 23. februar 2013

@tsx_5
This is indicative of your other claims of fact that are incorrect
That Chrysler Lifetime Powertrain Warranty was a offered in 2007 as a marketing ploy, because it wasn't transferable on sale of the car, so they were just playing a statistical game knowing people don't keep their cars a lifetime. That calculation against increased sales from the marketing- It had nothing to do with the actual cost of replacement of Powertrain's after 8-10 years of design life.

And most importantly, they LOST THAT BET. I t cost them a fortune, so they dropped it 3 years later in 2009-10

http://www.autoblog.com/2009/08/20/report-chrysler-dropping-lifetime-pow...

Nobody else has offered it since on major production basis. Of course some like Mercedes essentially price in a potion of those coverages into the car like Maytag, but the cost is all there; After 8-10 years, ya gotta cough up the $10k-$20k to make it happen (or pay it up front like Tesla's battery program); And It's about the same cost as the battery in the Tesla- but the Tesla doesn't have anything else major to replace over a 20+ year life. And the battery costs are coming down over time- Powertrain costs are not...

Amped | 23. februar 2013

some have stated 1.7% per year
http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/08/Model-S-range-Tables.pdf

& if you search Stanford, Tesla on youtube a TM engineer speaks of the battery.
It's long but interesting.

vgrinshpun | 24. februar 2013

What if the battery of Model S, particularly 85kWh, will last the lifetime of the car and replacement is not necessary?

tsx_5 | 24. februar 2013

kenliles,

Ok -- you got me on the warranty. I haven't bought a new vehicle in 7 - 8 years (and that was for my at the time wife), so I googled and came across the chrysler warranty. Then I failed to do check it, my bad.

Duffer | 24. februar 2013

I, for one, will think long and hard before replacing the battery, even when it has degraded to 50% of the original range (I have the 85KWH). For me, and I suspect for many others, even in the degraded mode it will serve me very well for about 95% of the driving I do. Unless the replacement cost and terms are very compelling (e.g., 500 miles range that would greatly simplify cross-country travel), I'll probably continue to drive it until battery degradation makes it impractical for even my local trips.

kenliles | 24. februar 2013

@tsx_5
I've done the same thing myself. Good to keep each other on our toes!
no worries;

Jorge89 | 07. april 2013

From what I understand and electric motor itself does not need maintenance, though I think I've read that this car's transmission still needs oil changes which is still pretty cheap. An ICE will need a lot of maintenance over 8 years. Here are some things that would need to be maintained in an ICE: belts, oil, oil filter, intake filter, spark plugs, spark plug wires, fuel filter, water pump, and radiator coolant fluid. And of course there are other things that would need to be replaced if they break or stop functioning properly like fans, the many sensors and ICE has, fuel injectors, hoses, valves, piston rings, gaskets, and there's more. I think this would add to the advantage of having an electric motor.

nwdiver93 | 08. april 2013
village33 | 08. april 2013

I'm not sure where this line of thinking comes from (eg warranty is 8 years so replace at 8 years or car only serves __% of the intended purpose in 8yrs so I'm going to spend a fortune making it new again)? By that thinking you would scrap any ICE car every time the warranty ran out (eg 4yrs, etc) and buy a new one. Do the TCO on that and you'll be horrified. Similarly a ICE vehicle is not nearly as efficient at 8yrs as an mpg or maintenance matter ($2000/yr to keep a large luxury ICE car in tip-top shape at 8yrs vs $500/yr at inception). The Tesla should be an awesome car from years 8-12, but not the same awesome it is now but rather awesome to another person (or you) for another application (much like an ICE car). I don't think many here who like shiny new things will be driving an 8-12yr old car, they'll sell it and get the 1000mi range EV that does 0-60 in 2.5 with 10min charging at every corner that will be available by then.

herkimer | 08. april 2013

Let's assume that the battery degradation on your Model S after 8 years is unacceptable and you wish to replace the battery but want to keep the car.

Even if the battery capacity and cost is identical in 8 years to what it is today (unlikely, in my view, more likely to have more capacity with less cost, but for the sake of argument lets assume it will cost $12000 to replace the 85kwh battery), and lets assume that you have taken good car of your car and the interior and body are in good condition. You will essentially be getting a nearly new car for the cost of a new battery with another 8 years of use at that capacity! The cost of replacing a battery will certainly be fraction of the cost of buying a whole new car, you keep the depreciation (paying far less in license, registration and insurance fees, and no sales tax on a new car). Another 8 years with no gas and no oil changes, no new transmission, timing belt, water pump, no head gasket, no plugs, no fuel injection, so many less parts to break down and replace. And changing out that battery takes only a few minutes and you are on your way again!

evpro | 08. april 2013

Remember that there are 2 trends operating here:

Gas is getting more expensive (pump price doubled over last 8 years and the 8 years previous).

Batteries are getting cheaper (and better).

Also keep in mind the "black swan" factors. What are the chances of an oil supply disruption over the next decade? What are the chances of a real climate change panic (which might bring about emergency measures like gas tax increases or rationing)?

What is the value of a car that uses no gas under those circumstances?

Brian H | 08. april 2013

Notice how after about 1000 cycles, the degradation hits 20% and is slowing, and it takes another 2000 cycles to lose another 10%. That's about ¼ the early rate!

Brian H | 08. april 2013

Taking a full cycle as about 200 miles, that means 80% after 200K miles, and another 600K miles to get down to 70%. Total 800K miles. Who will reach it first? >:)

Brian H | 08. april 2013

That 200 mi/cycle is a conservative number to accommodate speed, heating, cooling, etc.

Omlette | 14. juni 2013

8 years maintenance on even the average ICE car could easily match the added "fuel" cost of your hypothetical situation.

Btw if your math is correct at 0.13 cents/ mile and 0.17 cents/mile for the EV +battery sawp and ICE respectively that is still a 23.6% savings which i think is incredible in any case.

If the model S batteries are anything close to the first gen prius batteries in terms of longevity I think the Model S is a great choice for a car that is easy on running cost.

djm12 | 15. juni 2013

Occasionally I find myself making these calculations and then I remind myself that I did not buy the Tesla to save a few pennies on fuel. I bought it to get the best performance car on the market. The Tesla drives like a dream - that it doesn't use gasoline is also a major positive - I hate to pump gas, especially when I think of where that money is going.

If you really want to save money, buy a Leaf. If you really want to drive, buy a Tesla.

justineet | 15. juni 2013

Dortor, you have serious flaw in your calculation. First, even w/o counting the the cost of fuel, the cost of running ICE vehicles is much higher than electric cars than u r estimating. But the biggest flaw in your argument is projected cost of replacing the battery pack. You are wrongly assuming the cost to replace the battery pack will remain the same...that is a big mistake...the cost of the battery is going down about 7% a year...so about 8 or 10 years when the time comes for u to replace the battery, the cost will be a fraction of the 12,000 dollars you referred...it will be more likely be in the range of 3 to 5,000 dollars....about the same amount of money u need to by a new ICE engine which is much less than the cost of replacing both the engine and transmission which is usually required with the ICE cars.

dortor | 15. juni 2013

the figure I was using was the disclosed replacement cost of the battery pack - reduction in cost of future battery packs is so far a mythical assertion - and it may in fact be true - but the best available factual information is the quoted $12,000 figure from Tesla itself. Once a price is established that shows a different cost the calculation are easily redone - otherwise we can make up any numbers we want to push the cost estimates any direction we want.

I prefer to stick with actual published numbers, not predicted future numbers that can and will most likely change (for better or worse)…

Also I find anything like swapping a 1000 lbs battery to only cost 3 to 5,000 dollars to a highly suspect assertion - because at a minimum there is labor involved and labor costs are not likely to drop into the future.

feel free to assert any cost adjustments you need to to make your personal reality fit your pre-conceived notions of what is going to happen

Me - I work with actual published numbers today- and adjust my calculations once new factual data is available. Also in the tech industry things don't normally go down in cost to the degree that you're asserting, but typically the price point remains the same but capability dramatically increases...i.e. there have always been $100-$200 hard drives - but the capacity of said drives is dramatically different over time while retaining the same price point

so a more likely scenario IMHO - is not a 85 kwh battery that costs only 3 to 5000 dollars (because just like the 40 kwh battery Elon decided not to make) but rather a 10-12k battery that is say 150 kwh - the price is still likely to in that ball park, but the capability will be dramatically different.

time will tell…

dortor | 15. juni 2013

also - I would appreciate any actual data/refrences showing the cost of battery technology and replacement modules going down 7% per year. Prius, Leaf, and Roadster battery prices points have not reduced prices by 7% year as service parts - or at least not in any references I can find.

so on what actual basis is your 7% per-year reduction based - and if based on "technology" improvements I don't consider that a valid cost basis decision since raw tech. commodity prices has only a loose relationship with actual parts cost when it comes time to buy the manufactured parts that are packaged and available as a service part.

are you aware of, and can you share any actual prices of high kWh battery technology replacement parts as a serviceable item with a reduction in cost?

justineet | 15. juni 2013

@dortor....I am not talking about some imagined future development out of thin air. It's all grounded on what has happened in the last 2 decades with the cost of lithium batteries. Not only has it declined, the price has collapsed especially in the past 8 years. Per Kwh it used to cost about $600 about a decade ago. Now it only costs about 200!! In other words per cell it used to cost about 6 bucks now it costs about 2 bucks. That is one of the main reasons lap top computers cost much less now than a decade ago. As far as your claim tech products not declining prize wise, that can't be any further from the fact. A decade ago you couldn't buy your average lap top or desk top computer for less than 3500 bucks. Now your average computer costs about 1,000 bucks only!! Labor cost for battery replacement is a non-issue; it's a 5 to 10 minute job unlike replacing ICE engine or transmission!!!

I suggest you read the following article to have a better understanding of Lithium Battery economics:

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1084682_what-goes-into-a-tesla-model...

justineet | 16. juni 2013

@dortor....one correction on my part...the 10,000 to $12,000 battery replacement figure I believe takes into account cost decline in the next 3 or 4 years. Thus my figure of about 5,000 bucks in 8 years is probably overstated. If the batteries cost about 12,000 bucks in 3 years, then in 8 years it will be about 6 to 7000 bucks in 8 years and 5 to 6000 dollars in 10 years if trends continue as in last decade.

AmpedRealtor | 16. juni 2013

@ dorter,

I think you would be much better off getting the car and being extra cautious and conservative regarding your battery charging habits. For instance, owners have written that 50%-60% seems to be the ideal charge for the battery. If true, keep your battery charged around 50%-60% (that's still over 130 mile EPA range or 150 mile ideal range) and don't drive faster than 55 MPH in order to get the maximum range out of your charge, and make sure you use your car on a regular basis. On those rare days that you need additional range, charge up for those expected trips.

This type of car makes it far too easy to overthink our decision. I toiled for two weeks before finally reserving, and the battery lasting 8 years was the least of my concerns. I'm presuming that Tesla has done its homework there, and I don't want to worry myself about the payback credentials of the car when that's not really the reason I'm buying this car.

Ultimately, ask yourself why you are buying this car. There are other much less expensive EVs to choose from - Ford Focus, Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi i-Miev, Toyota RAV4 (in California) - all of them less expensive than the Model S and with probably a better ROI considering their much lower cost of entry. The Model S buyer wants not only comfort and range, but also wants to make a statement that we can have our cake and eat it, too! :)

Brian H | 16. juni 2013

AR;
Intangibles are also economic "goods" -- what people will pay for. The "R" in ROI is not entirely monetary, necessarily. There is a sense of driving pleasure composed of a unique blend of excitement/arousal/control and serenity which Tesla seems to be able to offer that no other car can. So in that sense of "R", it may be very high indeed.

daoops | 16. juni 2013

Not sure if I missed something in this thread, but has anyone mentioned second hand price of an 85kwh battery with say 70% left? SC's or homes with solar panel etc.

AmpedRealtor | 16. juni 2013

@ Brian H, yes there is definitely an intangible value to being a badass :) and that's exactly what you are when you drive this car.

mikefa | 14. oktober 2013

@dortor - it is not a fair comparison as you've suggested "... consider the cost of the battery replacement in the annual cost to "fuel" an ICE vehicle "... You have made an unfair assumption that both gasoline fuel cost and cost of a battery will remain constant... you are forgetting the rapidly advancing world of technology and increasing demand for new car batteries will drive down the cost of a replacement battery exponentially... Do you remember the 1st generation plasma tv that came on the market which was selling at $45,000?... the prices dropped dramatically in just a matter of few short years... and Today, we have bigger, brighter, sharper, and more energy efficient plasma tv than cost a mere fraction of the original plasma tv.

kawdennis | 14. oktober 2013

Dortor--I totally agree with you, that is 1 reason I took my P85 to the drag strip when it was brand new, it ran 12.6 seconds at 107 mph in the 1/4 mile, I plan on doing this every 6 months or so--Dennis

J.T. | 14. oktober 2013

@Amped & Brian H

The "cool" factor cannot be computed, it can only be felt . . . and it feels great!

Brian H | 14. oktober 2013

jt;
Actually, an economist would tell you that in principle it's fairly easy to compute. Just determine the effect on price point, and the size of the market segment that is willing to buy at any given price point because of it.

jvs11560 | 14. oktober 2013

Although I applaud the Tesla Model S owners for their loyalty and passion for this company, I am still on the fence with this car. In my opinion, for this company to stay around, they must make a car that is a good value. There is more to the auto enthusiast than a carbon foot print. At least for me.

I am considering a new P85, but I do not like a few things:

Limited Distance - In the winter, I like to take my kids skiing in Canada (Mont Tremblant). From Long Island to Monteal doesn't seem like it would be my normal six hours in a model S. It just doesn't seem to have the range (especially in the winter). As the car gets more popular, what are the wait times going to be at the super charging stations? Is it unrealistic of me to think that there might be 10 Tesla's in front of me at the charging station? If so, that would be a long time to recharge? My current car can make it there and half way back on a single tank.

True cost of ownership - I can buy a 2013 Cadillac CTS-V for $68,000 with all the goodies. It's about the same size as the MS, it out performs the (P85), and it averages 15 MPG. At $4.00 for a gallon for fuel, I would spend Approximately $3,200.00 per year on fuel. After 10 years the car would still be a lot less to own than a comparable Tesla. Mind you, this equation that I came up with accounts for zero cost of electricity, so the business model is heavily tilted towards Teslsa. Plus, Cadillac provides free maintenance (50,000 miles).

Stability - If you want to make money, short whatever I buy in the stock market. From Global Crossing, to Enron, to Boston Chicken, I have watched as my stocks took off and then fell hard. It concerns me that Tesla might be another one of these companies. The growth of this stock does not seem in line with the rest of the company. What happens if I buy a MS and the company goes belly up? Will I be able to get parts? Will someone take them over? Or, will they become another lesson learned?

If I do buy this car, it will be because of the intangibles that the MS brings to the market. I am planning to schedule a test drive soon. Can someone please address the reservations that I have???

jjs | 14. oktober 2013

jvs11560

You test drive will address/trump your reservations. I'm not being glib. Once you experience the vast superiority of the Model S it will be clear. If it is not then you can always buy the Caddy.

Good luck and let us know your thoughts after your test drive.

However:

1) Wait times in the future for supercharging? No one knows for sure however the cost of the supercharger build out is built into the price of your car. More cars sold, more superchargers. Businesses will line up to be part of the supercharger network as it brings affluent clientele to their businesses. The business model is sound and it is working.

2) Cost? Drive the car. Think to yourself you only live once. The true cost may well be in not treating yourself to this extraordinary machine. It may not pencil, but it won't matter.

3) Tesla long term viability? Drive the car. Their execution as a business is close to the quality and innovation of the car. Will Tesla survive? It is unknown, but very likely. They are have one last hurdle to cross. Going from niche manufacturer to large large mainstream manufacturer. There is uncertainty in this for sure and some risk. However much less than there was a year ago. Drive the car and I believe you will see why so many have good reason to believe they will not only survive, but thrive.

Tâm | 15. oktober 2013

@jvs11560

1) Limited Range: If you want Tesla bad enough, you can pick up your car from CA and drive back to your home as some already did without the convenience of Superchargers. It just took longer with RV park charging.

2) Supercharger traffic:
You are right, even with Superchargers, it will take longer than gas station fill ups.

No, you are not unrealistic about Supercharger wait time because it did happen. Wait time at superchargers do get worse but Tesla monitors the usage closely and build more as needed.

Harris Ranch, CA used to be the worst wait, but Tesla built more on that site and fixed the problem.

Then, the wait problem was transferred to Gilroy, CA, so Tesla built more at a different site (Fremont, CA) to relieve the wait and now also build more at both sites.

3) Cost:
It's true that it is costly upfront with new technology. If you want to save your money, then stick with your dinosaur cars.

If you value your family and yourself, there no question that you would want to pay extra to keep them alive in an accident.

Model S has been proven in the lab, testing environment that they are safe, but in real life, no one has suffered any permanent injuries on the road as well.

The offset head-on collision in CA resulted in 2 fatalities in the car, but the Model S driver walked out fine.

A Model S unseated the fire hydrant and also severed a utility pole in Tennessee completely but the driver was fine talking to policeman and the car did not flip.

Recent New York fire that was caused by a curved metal debris on highway that punctured the battery with more than 25 tons of force proved how life saving it was as it warned the driver to pull over for a safe stop immediately.

The fire was contained, the driver was never in danger because he was warned and he followed the instruction.

That is in contrast with the San Mateo Bridge, CA Limousine fire that burned 5 nurses alive because there was no such warning.

http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_23785684/limo-fire-inside-mo...

4) Stability :

A piece of paper costs less than a cent, get some ink, some paint on, it is still worth less than a cent. However, if you know Van Gogh or Mozart is going to do some work on that worthless piece of paper, don't you want to pay dearly just to own their work on now yet blank paper?

That's what TSLA momentum is about. Expert may say the company is worthless because who's in the right mind would want to pay for an electric car and all the negative things that you could ever thought of. But don't you want to pay dearly because Tesla has proven the critics wrong?

Would you want a more stable companies like GM or Chrysler that prove that they already bellied up?

When you buy Model S, you don't just buy the car, you buy the whole infrastructure network in US and Canada.

There's no certainty in life but would you think others have a better chance than Tesla does?

Even when Royal Dutch Shell confesses that "...the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free."

http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/oilfree-who-says-oil-industry-de...

5) Can someone please address the reservations that I have???

No body can!

You need to know yourself!

Norwegians are willing to pay an extra $20,000 for a used Tesla Model S. Why are you not?

You want people to convince you, you want sales people to sell you.

Then, I am not sure this car is for you if intrinsically, it is not coming from you.

J.T. | 15. oktober 2013

@Tam Your arguments are spot on, but premature. It's been my experience with my acquaintances that talking to them before they've driven it is like trying to explain to someone what milk tastes like. Until they taste it themselves they can never know.

AmpedRealtor | 15. oktober 2013

@ jvs11560,

I recommend you sign up for a test drive and then re-visit your list of concerns. You may find some of them not as concerning after you drive the car. On the surface it appears that you are looking for the Model S to solve all problems and to be the perfect car. It doesn't and it isn't. Like it or not, the Model S is built for the EV enthusiast and will require a certain amount of compromise in the range department. For many owners, the car possesses other compensating features that make the range and charging a non-issue. Those compensating features are different for each person. In my case, the fact that the car is an EV, has zero emissions, longest EV range and can be charged at home trump almost every shortcoming of the car.

avanti | 15. oktober 2013

@JJS: "Tesla long term viability? Drive the car. Their execution as a business is close to the quality and innovation of the car. Will Tesla survive? It is unknown, but very likely. They are have one last hurdle to cross. Going from niche manufacturer to large large mainstream manufacturer."

Actually, Tesla has at least *two* more hurdles to cross: The one you mention, and the one after that: Surviving the astoundingly vicious competitive and political pressures from entrenched establishment forces that would certainly be unleashed should they ever become big enough for anybody to care.

We all have our fingers crossed, but to say that success at this is "very likely" is just one of the many examples of the one-sided belief system and blind optimism that typifies this list. (I honestly don't mean to be harsh, but in my experience, few places on the Net are less welcoming to non-party-line opinions than this list).

Epley | 15. oktober 2013

I don't think the Model S is the type of car that one purchases on a limited budget. Perhaps someday Tesla will get there. I personally don't care how much a replacement battery costs. After driving this car for 11 months, I have no interest in going back to a gas car, ever. This car spoils you. It's not "just a car," it's something unique and special. If you're on the fence about whether to buy one, jump off the fence with both feet--it will be worth it.

avanti | 15. oktober 2013

@Epley:

You hit the nail on the head. You buy something like this because (a) You enjoy and can afford the indulgence, and/or (b) you believe that you are contributing to a better future and are voting with your feet.

Whalensouth | 15. oktober 2013

When people do this math about fuel and cost to own, I am shocked that the annual maintenance difference is always left out of the equation. No catalytic converter, no fan belt, no oil changes, no transmission, sparkplugs, etc.. the list goes on. Any ICE car I have owned was 3-5K in maintenance per year. Even the low end of the maintenance delta @3K over 7 years is another 20K in savings. That is just the $$ part. I value knowing that I don't have to worry about these details as well. One less thing to worry about is nice.

avanti | 15. oktober 2013

Whalensouth;
"I am shocked that the annual maintenance difference is always left out of the equation. No catalytic converter, no fan belt, no oil changes, no transmission, sparkplugs, etc.. the list goes on. Any ICE car I have owned was 3-5K in maintenance per year."

Well, I own a 2005 Toyota Sienna with 130K miles. In that time, excluding oil, filters, ONE set of spark plugs (that I probably didn't need), tires and brakes, I have literally never spent a nickel on maintenance. ICE engineering has come a long way. I am not sure that I have spent $5K total, much less per year. The car is still in near perfect condition.

I do believe that EVs will prove to be less expensive to maintain in the long run, but it doesn't help the argument to exaggerate.

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