My son will be able to drive in 2018. He would consider purchasing the Model III. Do you think it will be available to purchase in 2018?
I don't think it makes any difference what we think. Elon thinks it will begin to be delivered in 2017 but his track record on such predictions isn't too good. "It's bloody hard to build a new car."
Tesla Motors will start taking reservations for the Tesla Model 3 in 2016, start production in Q4 2017, and further ramp up towards full production in 2018. That's what we know as of today.
I think it's important that you do make a reservation for the Tesla Model 3 once they start taking reservations in 2016. That will determine your place in line for when they will start with the production of the Tesla Model 3.
Wow, what a way to start your driving experience after successfully getting your driving license.
@ Benz | June 24, 2015
Tesla Motors will start taking reservations for the Tesla Model 3 in 2016, start production in Q4 2017, and further ramp up towards full production in 2018.
I'm not even sure what "full production" for the M3 means.
I expect production rates to increase for at least 3 years after its introduction. I wouldn't be surprised if the production rate kept increasing for 10 years or more.
I'm still trying to get my head about how a 16 year old would be able to purchase a $35,000 car.
Whoops, "around", not "about".
Personally, I don't think the Gen III will be fully mass producable until the Gigfactory ramps up in 2020. The car may be available prior to that, but I imagine the production line will not be going full bore.
Rocky_H he has worked since he was 10 in the summer. I can't reveal what he does or how much he has made, but I can tell you he will be able to pay for 60% of that car and I will pay the rest. I will not be buying it for him for he must earn what he wants and not be spoiled by his parents.
Also I would probably buy it used or from the showroom or something because I think getting a teen a brand new car would be a bad idea.
If by 'by' you mean 'before', then yes, you will be able to buy a Tesla Model ≡ in 2017.
If you are considering a used purchase, then perhaps the Ford Focus Electric, Chevrolet Spark EV, or Fiat 500e will do.
I'm going to guess no, and will prepare to be pleasantly surprised. Tesla hasn't been particularly close to hitting any of their target release dates (when is the model X coming now? September, maybe?) and I will be extremely unsurprised if they end up launching in March 2019 or something. I also wouldn't be surprised by a 2018 launch, but I would be surprised if they actually manage to ship anything in 2017.
As for a 16 year old buying one, I don't think its terribly common, but one of my college friends freshman year ran a small business as a DJ in middle and high school. He could have bought one by the time he graduated high school at least if he was so inclined.
How about a 5 or even 6 years old Tesla Model S (in 2018)?
Would that also be a viable option?
The main issue with M3 is getting the design right including the structure, weight, safety, performance, cost, etc. Manufacturing process has to be optimized including tolerances, etc. Otherwise costs explode and get poor quality, rework. Same with the GF.
I would rather see 2018 production, getting the right auto, than some hurry up job, dictated by Wall Street. Meanwhile, Tesla could optimize the MS+X. Weight reduction with design optimization, refining the interior. Increase range and battery capacity. May be improve auto-pilot sensors, electronics. Meanwhile, SC network will continue to expand.
At $35k for M3, demand will be high, in millions. So, Tesla could just offer hi end loaded models at $445-50k.
Actually Bubba, I think the batteries will be the sticky point. They need the gigafactory in order to get the price point for the car in the correct range. Without the gigafactory, the batteries will be too expensive to hit the car's target price range.
@ Benz yes it probably would! Thank you for the great Idea!
I guess that there are a lot of people who already have had this idea in the back of their mind, and who are waiting for the price of a used Tesla Model S to drop below a certain pricepoint. Be sure that the demand for a used Tesla Model S will keep on increasing in the future.
I've had pretty much the same thought as Benz, my current car is 4 years old and I think I will be looking to replace it in 2017-2018. My plan is to wait and see what the performance and styling on the model 3 is like. If it is to my liking I will likely buy a model 3 if not I will buy a ~5 year old model S presuming the batteries are holding up as I expect they will.
I hope they take their time and deliver a world class product. The main stream manufactures can get by launching a vehicle that is still teething and improve it over time. I don't think Tesla can 't afford to do that. The media will crucify them if it's not world class out of the box.
I can wait.
When the Model X is reviewed, I expect to see accolades along the lines of, "If you expect your next car to be anything other than a Tesla, you must be insane." That is, no matter your price range, no matter what you believe you can afford, take the time to save a larger nest egg, get a better job, find a cheaper place to live, clean up your credit, and buy a Tesla. Because it will simply be just that good.
All of the concerns that anyone has about Tesla Motors should be answered by the Model X. And, given those answers, all will finally realize that the Model ≡ is the goal, not an also ran, afterthought, throwaway project. More will realize that Tesla Motors is the real deal, in it for the long haul, ready for prime time, and takes no prisoners. The anticipation for Model ≡ will grow to great heights. And the enthusiasm will be rewarded.
don't think Tesla can afford
But, the perfect is the enemy of the good! Can Elon's OCD be controlled?
Once again, Perfect is the arch-nemesis of 'Meh. That'll do... No one will ever notice anyway.'
Am I the only one that wonders why Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and Narcissism are considered bad personality traits?
Elon has stated that the GF and Model 3 are all tied together. The goal is to have the GF ready to supply the battery packs for Model 3. But the Model 3 must be ready to accept the battery packs. He mentioned this is a crucial stage for Tesla. Timing is a very important part of the whole GF/Model 3 equation. He can't have GF producing packs will no Model 3 to put them in, and he can't have Model 3 delayed due to no battery packs. Delays on either side will be very costly. An Idle Model 3 assembly line, or an idle batt production line is not part of the plan. Its all about timing.Time is money.
On the other hand, with the GF running a bit ahead of schedule, it would be fantastic if Model 3 was early. That would quiet a lot of naysayers, and please an awful lot of Tesla followers.
Yeah! What David N said and stuff! +42 UP! w00+!
Yes I believe so. Be sure to get reservation as soon as possible because they might be slow in production in early 2018.
@ David N | June 29, 2015
Elon has stated that the GF and Model 3 are all tied together. ... He can't have GF producing packs will no Model 3 to put them in, and he can't have Model 3 delayed due to no battery packs.
Yes, delays would cost $ million. However, I believe that in the large scheme of things there is no critical make-or-break milestone dates for either the GF or the M3.
I trust Tesla to manage these mutually dependent projects effectively to ramp up production at about the same time.
The GF now under construction is just a pilot plant, ¼ the size of the whole. It will produce some working batteries beginning 2016, but is really meant to test the "full-blown" design.
Tesla must feel safe capacity-wise as the X and S appear to be headed for full blast production and at the same time battery storage systems are being promoted. It is about cost as much as capacity. The Gigafactories will hopefully make them a whole lot cheaper.