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Tesla stock

For all of us who are long term Tesla investor, please don't lose Tesla’s vision. Here's the reason the stock market has been and is reacting negatively.
Think about which/what industries Tesla is disrupting and what kind of short monies these industries can throw at the stock market. Here’s my list of disrupted industries so far as I can phantom.
1. Big oil industry, chain distribution of oil and gas, to the mom and pop gas stations.
2. Big car manufacturer who have stupid monies for TV ads and obviously monies to try to kill Tesla.
3. Big and small car part suppliers who are not ready to join in Tesla's vision.
4. Big and small car dealerships who are afraid of losing their "rip off" sales/service centers.
Now ask yourself has any company like Tesla ever disrupted so many industries? Who else is Tesla pissing off? Please tell me who is on your list
Remember Amazon - They disrupted brick and mortar book stores. Their vision continues.
Remember Apple/Google/Microsoft - They disrupted the whole communications industry. Their vision continues.
Tesla investors, hang in there and remember your focus. You will be rewarded.

jimglas | 27. april 2019

troll flagged

jordanrichard | 27. april 2019

Jimglas, why are you classifying this as a troll post? There is no FUD or self promotion.

jimglas | 27. april 2019

the troll has been flagged away

Madatgascar | 27. april 2019

As the stock price has dipped, notice how negative press has accelerated.
Real news: Elon settles with the SEC, and S and X range is dramatically increased.
But Business Insider goes with another Linette Lopez hit piece on Tesla fires.
Real news: Tesla demonstrates convincing FSD capabilities at their Investor's Day.
But CNBC calls it a "publicity stunt" and headlines one analyst's negative take.

NKYTA | 27. april 2019

Maybe there should be a wiki entry for worst analysts ever. Public shame, for generations.

At least the line of Robert E. Lee is calling bullshit on the doofus.

Dramsey | 27. april 2019

CNBC probably called it a stunt because Tesla also demonstrated convincing FSD capabilities two years ago-- remember the video? FSD was obviously JUST AROUND THE CORNER-- and has missed multiple self-imposed dates for things like cross-country autonomous drives and the delivery of FSD capabilities to people who have paid for them ("Three months maybe, six months definitely" for the start of FSD capabilities that go beyond EAP. The "six months" limit would have been the summer of 2017. Still waiting.)

You know how every time someone posts a dramatic story on a miracle battery and breathlessly demands to know why Tesla's not using them, and we point out that a laboratory demo of a new battery tech doesn't make it real? It's like that with Tesla's FSD. I paid for FSD 28 months ago, and the carefully choreographed no-pictures-or-video-allowed driving demos mean precisely nothing until I get a software update incorporating what they're showing.

NKYTA | 27. april 2019

Well, and the new chip, so hardware too, @Dramsey.

If your post was @ me, I would respond thusly:
- liars should be shamed historically
- dividers should always be shamed
- Elon can be shamed for timelines, but not “yet” for eventual deliver of previous concepts/forward looking statements

“remember the video? ”

Actually, I remember my wife NOT driving in a loop while I was in the back seat. Don’t think that video was ever shared, but we both were there.
Granted it was early (2016) and a fixed route but it wasn’t a posted video, I was in the car.

If you watched the Autonomy heads, and know a bit of h/w and s/w and throw in the fleet learning, nobody else is closer than TM. Machine Learning is certainly a current buzzword, but it really does a job.

I hope you get both hardware and software “soon” 28 more months? It seems unlikely from any other company.

Just like we have the e-tron. Forehead slap.

Honestly, I enjoy our Tesla’s but I think Elon should go all in on SpaceX - more bang for the buck, IMO.

hcwhy | 28. april 2019

Tesla is under new leadership. Who picked her?

carlk | 28. april 2019

Tesla autonomous car is the game changer. There is a good possibility that Tesla could be the only game in town in a few years. Elon had this all planned for long ago . Real visionary is very rare and usually is misunderstood by people who are not.

I've made my case in a post here but it did not get much attention. Here is the one I put on the TMC forum.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/teslas-real-plan-is-to-disrupt-i...

Mike83 | 28. april 2019

If your an employee and get stock options or want to by shares it is not a bad thing. IMO the company is doing better than ever but stock prices don't reflect the company and I've seen this before.

Dramsey | 28. april 2019

@carlk,

I read your linked post, and agree-- at least in the abstract-- that Tesla autonomy _would be_ a game changer. I certainly hope so, anyway, since Elon seems to be betting the future of the company on it.

While EAP is the most advanced driver aid system we can get in America, others are catching up: Audi offers full hands-off, eyes-off Level 3 autonomy up to 60kph in Europe, although the autopilot-like functions we get over here don't seem to be nearly as good as Teslas. But the "Traffic Jam Assist" L3 offered overseas in the new A8 seems more advanced than anything we have in our cars right now-- check the various online reviews and videos.

Also, I'd argue that visionaries aren't rare. Indeed, w're inundated with them, all of them certain they have the solution for free energy, teleportation, or what have you. Vision counts for bupkis unless you can follow through on it and actually deliver, and Elon's record here, I think, is mixed:

Massive success: Made true EVs a thing, rather than curiosities. The efficiency refresh of the S and X move them even further ahead of the competition. I remain puzzled as to why anyone would seriously consider an e-tron, iPace, Taycan, with their laughable range and efficiency and lack of a charging network, over a Tesla.

Just silly: Hyperloop. I still have trouble believing people take this seriously, but the way it's dropped off the radar recently seems to indicate that its impracticality is finally becoming evident. At least Tesla's not putting any time or money into it.

Jury's out: I still use EAP to get dropped-jaw reactions from my friends without Tesla experience, but FSD remains a long overdue promise rather than a reality.

A last note: one thing that makes me really nervous about the way Elon seems to be betting the company on FSD is something completely out of his control: regulation. If Tesla pushed out FSD tomorrow, would it be legal? As best I can tell right now, in the lack of Federal regulations on FSD, this is a state by state thing. Even at the Federal level, the bureaucracy is glacial: heck, they've been looking at matrix headlights-- a simple and proven technology, especially compared to FSD-- for more than five years and are still stroking their chins and going "Hmmmm...."

The press narrative on Tesla autopilot is not favorable; every time some moron stuffs his car into a fixed object because he was texting while driving, it's reported as an autopilot failure. Gah.

greg | 28. april 2019

Neither Tesla or anyone else don't have to make FSD cars need to be 100% perfect before they are useful.
We musn't let perfect be the enemy of "better". For most cases being better than human is good enough.

FSD won't be perfect day 1, but it will be safer than humans in most situations.

That is all it will require then to speed the transition is for the insurance companies to start adjusting risk premiums against human drivers. Then the transition will start. Doesn't mean no accidents with Tesla Robo Taxis - but as long as the level of them will be provably lower than a human driver - society is better off.

Level 5 autonomy also doesn't mean your car can drive anywhere on the planet [even off road] completely unassisted. Few people can manage that skill right now. Robot cars? even fewer [I am sure the US Military has some that can in some lab somewhere though].

In any case, you don't need to have full level 5 autonomy that can drive everywhere for a Robo Taxi operation.
If it can navigate city streets or between cities on highways - thats good enough.

And if the cost to hire a Robo Taxi is cheaper than an Uber or Taxi a lot of people will vote with their wallets and go Robo Taxi over a human driven one.

Still Musk could deliver 999,999 Robo Taxis by the end of 2020 and the headlines would still scream:

"Musk fails to put 1 million Robo Taxis on the road as promised".
So he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

I believe that Musk has thought through the entire Robot car changeover and his approach of using passive optical scannng (cameras) augmented with RADAR and Ultrasonics will be validated longer term - just as his approach to designing EVs from the ground up with all parts integrated is now becoming obviously needed to produce a "better than ICE" experience. This is why ICE makers produce such crap EVs right now.

Why Cameras etc? Because a Robot car needs a multiple sensory system that works as good as the human eyes, human ears and human touch/senses to individually and as a unit to be able to drive as well as a human would.
Having said that the current crop of sensors may not be perfect, and may well be replaced or augmented over time with newer technology.

LIDAR is in effect a one-eyed Giant (and a lot of LIDAR units sure look pretty fugly like One eyed Giants too), yes it can see, but is blinded by fog/smoke/rain and haze, it can't "hear" or "sense" the world around it.

Thats why I think Musk is so down on LIDAR or any "do it all" sensor tech.

Dramsey | 29. april 2019

I remain agnostic on the subject of whether or not LIDAR is necessary for full autonomy or just one of many options. I have no expertise in this area, but for those who want a deep dive into self driving car tech I can heartily recommend the book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Cars, And How it Will Reshape Our World", which you can get on Amazon:

https://www.amazon.com/Autonomy-Quest-Driverless-Car-Reshape/dp/00626611...

Elon's promise of 1 million robotaxis by the end of next year was just another example, I'm afraid, of the absurd stuff he spouts, seemingly off the cuff. Even if the software and regulatory issues are solved, there simply won't be anywhere near that number of HW3 cars on the road by then.

TeslaTap.com | 29. april 2019

@Dramsey - Perhaps you are getting upset over nothing? You keep saying Elon breaks promises or will break promises, yet he rarely promises anything. He has goals, hopes and desires, which he states fairly clearly. Yes many items have taken longer than his goals, but if you have no goals, it's easy to never reach them. So far he's delivered on most goals, just not in the time frame you want. Then again, no one else seems to be even close.

On LIDAR, I have mixed feelings. It's a great way to get FSD faster, with less software effort, but at a significant hardware cost that is basically priced out of the market. We've been hearing of cheap LIDAR for years now, but not here yet. Even with cheap LIDAR, you have to have an expensive cleaning/wiping system to keep it functional in anything other than pristine weather. You also need a lot more computational power to process all that data. Still it works for Waymo, where they can spend $25K on a car and add $50-100K worth of hardware so long as it only drives in clear weather. Doubt many consumers are willing to pay for it.

As for Audi's unavailable Jam assist - only works to 37 mph, which seems useless on freeways, unless it is really backed up. Other car makers will figure it all out - perhaps taking a huge per-vehicle loss for the first 2-3 years producing a limited production compliance vehicle.

Agreed Tesla has yet to prove FSD, but they can deliver FSD requiring hands on the wheel without regulatory approvals. Once the approval occurs, the hands-on-wheel limitations can go away. It's would be a cool way to apply some pressure to the regulatory process if 100,000 owners are using FSD (with hands) waiting for those regulators to get there act in gear.

TeslaTap.com | 29. april 2019

P.S. Read the book you cited last year. Interesting read, but totally from Waymo's perspective (where the author consults) and really negative on Tesla without knowing what Tesla is currently doing.

carlk | 30. april 2019

Here is what the original Google Lidar guru Anthony Lavendoski recently said in an interview appropriately titled Lessons Learned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNgEG5rCav4

He said "a wiser person than me said Lidar is a crutch" and "he is right". What he said about things need to be worked on now were exactly what Karpathy mentioned in the event that Tesla is doing -- machine learning to observe small movements of cars and pedestrians (body languages) to predict their intentions. What more you need to hear to say Elon is right again? More amazing than this is it took those very smart people a lot of time to work on it. Only when they reached 99.9% they started to realize the remaining issue could not be resolved their way. On the other hand Elon saw it from the very beginnig. What else is new?

dmm1240 | 30. april 2019

If you're inclined to take a flyer on a startup that isn't quite a startup any more, now is the time to buy Tesla stock. Wish I had more funds available in my play at stock accounts right now to really load up.

Consider:
1. There is no longer any question that the world is moving to address climate change. Whether you think it's real (which it is) or a giant conspiracy cooked up by libruls to take control of your life no longer matters. It's happening. People are taking to the streets all over the world to demand action. Politicians are taking actions to move it along. Even here, Democratic candidates are falling over one another to come up with the best way to move the U.S. to renewables.
2. ICE cars are now increasingly facing restrictions (i.e. bans/fees to drive ICE vehicles in many European cities. A growing list of countries have set sunset dates for ICE vehicle sales.
3. Transportation and electricity generation are the main culprits spewing GHG emissions into the air. Of course, cleaning that up becomes the primary target for change.
4. EVs are the best way to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. Battery powered vehicles are the best option to do that for the foreseeable future.
5. Tesla leads the world in battery technology for cars and electric motors. Everyone else is years behind. The vaunted Tesla killer has yet to emerge with the latest round from Europe still falling short to Tesla's technology.
6. The problems bedeviling Tesla are mostly logistical; such problems are solved far more easily than developing the technology required to compete with Elon's brainchild.
7. Tesla is vertically integrated where its competitors are not. This gives them a huge advantage in cutting costs over the medium to long term with more flexibility to continue to innovate. (Detroit et al outsourced its design and parts to third parties years ago making it difficult for them to be anywhere near as nimble as Tesla).

I think Tesla stock is going to skyrocket over the next few yeas. When? I dunno, but the stars look to be lining up for Tesla to eat everyone's lunch at some point in the not too distant future. Anyway, that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

NKYTA | 30. april 2019

"6. The problems bedeviling Tesla are mostly logistical;"

Or, the bigger problems bedeviling Tesla/TSLA are adversarial advertisements, from , NADA, Big Oil, Koch brothers.

Still long on the stock.

carlk | 30. april 2019

Here is a nice article about the Tesla stock. I would have written exactly the same if I had time and writing skill as the author who had exactly the same viewpoint as I do. He even used the Netflix analogy I always like to use. Take a look at what has happend to NFLX price since early this decade when it dropped 75% because fear of its new disruptive venture. The Tesla FSD is exactly the Netflix streaming few years ago but only much bigger. I love Reed Hastings but Elon is even more of a visionary and super smart person than him.

http://www.hamidshojaee.com/post/184522555004/teslas-autonomy-day-the-st...

Tesla-David | 30. april 2019

Thanks @dmm1240 for sharing your positive thoughts on TSLA, and its future. I completely agree, as owner of IPO TSLA, and remain long on this incredible company and believe in EM's ability to deliver on his goals.

Thanks @carlk for sharing your positive link on Tesla stock.

carlk | 30. april 2019

If you have not watched the Jim Cramer video attached to that article you definitely should do it. He talked about all those short strategies those people are still using today. Go to 3:35 when he said shorting Apple was very easy and described how you could spread rumors about Apple to bring it down. It all sound very funny, or not very funny depending on your perspective, now.

nipper2 | 01. kan 2019

Where do I go to buy Tesla Stock? I do want to buy

JustSaying | 01. kan 2019

nipper
One of the good online financial sites that in addition to low cost trading provides easy to understand financial advice.
Read Money magazine and never invest more in a single stock than you are prepared to lose.
Also research what a "Stop-Loss" good until cancelled order means.

JustSaying | 01. kan 2019

Sorry, I use Fidelity but there are others...

andy.connor.e | 01. kan 2019

You're a fool if you still think Tesla stock price means anything.

jimglas | 01. kan 2019

I use Ameritrade for fun time trading.

dmm1240 | 01. kan 2019

A little aside here. One of the FUD arguments used against Tesla is Gigafactory 3 will not be ready this year and will cost much more than the $500 million Tesla says it will cost. Naysayers scoffed that it would be turning out cars by the end of the year. Ahem, hold the phone because it's happening. Tesla broke ground on gigafactory 3 in February. The linked article has photos and a drone flyover showing what it looks like today. No wonder they call it Chinese time construction. Amazing progress.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-gigafactory-3-drone-video-update/

Looks like a factory with the roof almost in and the walls going up to me. Pretty solid.

NKYTA | 01. kan 2019

How many hamsters can they fit in it?!

Amazing. GF1 better try to keep up!

Air quality, ugh. They need it more than we do.

Go Tesla.

andy.connor.e | 02. kan 2019

Thats actually insane that they can get that much done in 3 months. But it shouldnt be that much of a shock, i've watch entire data centers go up from dirt in 5 months with level 5 commissioning completed in 7 months.