Q1 2016 Model X delivery guess thread

Q1 2016 Model X delivery guess thread

Please guess the number of Model X that Tesla will deliver in this quarter.

My guess - 1750.

Triggerplz | 23. mars 2016

I assume u mean this "Quarter" I'm only concerned about VIN10xx..

vperl | 23. mars 2016

Stupid, care only of delivery.

This must be a OP by troll

vperl | 23. mars 2016

Stupid, care only of delivery.

This must be a OP by troll

aesculus | 23. mars 2016

I am going for 2250.

carlk | 23. mars 2016

2250 sounds better to me.

Out4aDuck | 23. mars 2016

Unless there are quality issues in this last week, I think there could be as many as 700 Signatures and 2300 Production Series delivered in Q1.

dortor | 23. mars 2016

at least one…

cbentinck | 23. mars 2016

I am VIN 223x and offered delivery on 31st. I think 2250 is a good guess with some VINs out of sequence

NumberOne | 23. mars 2016

I am going to go with 2560. The reason is the P90Ds and the Sigs and Founders that were not delivered by the end of Q4 2015.

elguapo | 23. mars 2016

With deliveries appearing so backloaded to second half of March, I'd like to believe a 2,000+ number, but VINs are all out of order and some sigs look like they won't get Q1 deliveries. I am going with 1,333. I hope it's 2x that!

lar_lef | 23. mars 2016


vperl | 24. mars 2016

This number means and is nothing for folks waiting three years. SIG's ought to be outraged..... What was that 30 k for the red paint job... A Sig badge and still wait ....

sp_tesla | 24. mars 2016


michelcub | 24. mars 2016

1975 x's

sra | 24. mars 2016

The guessing is not interesting at all. We will have the information with the Q1 report in due time.

vperl | 24. mars 2016


Move on.

sp_tesla | 24. mars 2016

"Svein | March 24, 2016
The guessing is not interesting at all."

1749 & 1751 are not guessing just messing:)

Triggerplz | 24. mars 2016

2018 because that's when Vperi is finally going to get his 5 seater. :)

Red Sage ca us | 24. mars 2016


vperl | 24. mars 2016

Trigger,not a problem, bot your location. I will borrow yours tillmi get mine. Thanks, your fantastically fantastic.

When would be a good time for me to pick up the MX.

Thanks again

NumberOne | 01. april 2016

I just saw a post on Facebook stating 2,720, which is 160 more than I predicted. We will have to see what other reports say for sure, but I think I was close enough.

vperl | 01. april 2016

Does your definition mean, "Delivered" to the owner and the owner drives away their MX?

NumberOne | 01. april 2016

I am referring to cars in the hands of their new owners i.e. 'delivered'.

vperl | 01. april 2016

Or Twenty or ten MX delivered to Service Centers being glued together

Eracer | 04. april 2016


sbeggs | 04. april 2016

Like 2,500?

San Diego service center has delivered one in 5,000 VIN range though...

Triggerplz | 04. april 2016

@sbeggs they are NOT delivering them in the order of the Vin number I have Vin 10xx with an April early May date

cweber | 04. april 2016

Tesla reported on Monday that it had delivered 14,820 vehicles in the first quarter of 2016, short of the 16,000 the company said it would sell.

The pace is well below what the electric-car maker needs to meet its full-year guidance of between 80,000 and 90,000 vehicles.

Unless Tesla can catch up in the coming quarters, it will have to deliver a daunting 35,000 vehicles in Q4.

Nevertheless, Tesla reaffirmed its full-year guidance in a statement.

"Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles," the company said. "Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016."

The new Model X was the culprit in the weak quarterly performance.

"The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected," Tesla said. "Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically."

Elon Musk and his team really fell on their swords this time around. The company cited "hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house" as reasons for the miss.

eric.zucker | 04. april 2016

They also state they achieved a run rate of 750 in the last week of March... Wow.

eric.zucker | 04. april 2016

Assuming they run at the same rate all year, there's 27,500 X's. Plus the S, say 60k they are well on track.

Note that in Q4, tesla produced S's at the rate of 70,000 per year.

We don't know how much this mobilized the capacity of both assembly lines though.

100k this year? Ambitious but possible...

Ankit Mishra | 04. april 2016

Wow!! 2400 Model X... Well done Tesla!! My guess is they will slow the deliveries yet again to solve the problems that they found out recently. They will resume deliveries around mid to late Q2 and deliver more than 5000 cars in Q2.
Congrats to @aesculus, @carlk, @cbentinck and @LeonardD. You guys were the closest.

Haggy | 04. april 2016

I wouldn't quite say the fell on their swords. They made it clear that it was Tesla's fault, but they also made it clear that the demand is there and the production capability is there and that the problems were fixed. The parts shortage came down to being able to make certain parts, and the underlying capability is now there.

A typical dip or unexpectedly low quarter is due to sales, but in this case, it's due to something that Tesla had complete control over and rectified. Although it has nothing to do with Q1 results, the Model 3 orders go a long way to keep the results from sending the stock way down.

Triggerplz | 04. april 2016

@cweber. Good Job, Very informative

vperl | 04. april 2016

Is that 750 amonth or a week, and is the weekly rate( hopefully) sustainable for let us say six months starting last week?

Just under 300k model 3....

Do the math at 1000 a week model 3, with Production by year end 2018, to get the 300k delivered.

eric.zucker | 05. april 2016

Vperl They said 750 MX in a week. Last week of March, and most of these are not included in the Q1 deliveries. Still in transit to service centers and customers.

39 weeks at 750 per week gives 29250 MX by the end of the year. Certainly they can make one of those a five seater for you.

vperl | 05. april 2016

Nope, I deserve to not get mine till end of Jan 2017 earliest.

All others served before me. Was my fault to be a forward thinking five seater person. Shame on me

sir1099 | 05. april 2016

Curious what y'all think. If I put an order for Model X today. How soon realistically I could get it?

vperl | 05. april 2016

Before any Model 3 reservation holders by two years

sir1099 | 05. april 2016

"Before any Model 3 reservation holders by two years"
What does that mean?

vperl | 05. april 2016

It is a mythological date, just like the delivery of m3 in quantity above five thousand a month.

Tesla has over 26,000 MX reservations to deliver in excellent operating condition. Even at 1000 a week of MX delivered you do the math.

Hope I am wrong and 2000 MX roll off the production line each week excellently built for direct delivery

eric.zucker | 05. april 2016

@sir1099 - some here have been waiting too long and are just nervous wrecks. Who wants a five seat config in a Model X when you can have a Kia, anyways ? (sorry, inside joke).

The X deliveries were delayed a lot from the original schedule. Model 3, we fear, may also suffer delays. We hope not.

elguapo | 05. april 2016

@sir1099 If it is a P90D with premium, or maybe even a 90D with premium, I'd bet 60 days.

sir1099 | 06. april 2016

@elguapo you really think ordering P90D vs standard model X makes any difference? I am in fact looking for the top of the line version.

aesculus | 06. april 2016

I don't think reg versus p makes much difference anymore. Still may have some interest in the other sig stuff because it makes the batching easier, but they may have gotten past that too.

I attribute the fact that I ordered everything but the P stuff that was on the Sigs and that is why I got my car earlier. The skateboard was an easy swap.

sir1099 | 06. april 2016

Ordering fully loaded X today, you guys think most likely would arrive before the end of the year?

vperl | 06. april 2016

Seat configuration.

Tesla has five seat avoidance.

If 6 or 7 seats.... Probably earlier

elguapo | 06. april 2016

@sir1099 The P is still given preference for the S, so yes, I do think a P90D X will come sooner, with premium. You'll have it before the end of June, I'd bet.