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M3 Tesla Vision Autonomy.. L4/5???

M3 Tesla Vision Autonomy.. L4/5???

ME: Based in Toronto, daily drive is 100km(62 miles). Live in a condo. hate my commute, don't want to have to fill up ever again.

Just wondering how Tesla Vision in the M3 will fair over the next few years? Elon has oversold Autopilot in the past and I wonder if Tesla Vision will truly be L4/5 Autonomous. Model S owners before Fall 2016 (most of you) don't have the 8 cameras/sensors and therefore cannot get to level4/5 autonomy. What is to say Tesla can't get there with the 8 and has to add something else to the mix (LIDAR). Other manufacturers are targeting 2020/2021 for the release of their autonomous vehicles based primarily on LIDAR and those cars are looking pretty good (thinking Volvo as M3 competitor).

Will M3 be Level 4/5 at some point in the future? Do you think Tesla Vision will come out on top in the end?

gavinfaulkner | 18. mars 2017

Your concerns are real. It sounds like you're an optimistic pessimist about it. I do hope that Tesla can get over this hump they've been struggling with re: the switchover to Tesla vision. It would be very sad to make a boldfaced lie out of what they have claimed is a sufficient sensor array and processing power for full autonomy.

However, I get the impression that they have never claimed to be able to reach level 5 autonomy by official definitions. They have only claimed to be able to provide "full autonomy" which smacks of intentional vagueness in order to account for any insurmountable hardware limitations.

andy.connor.e | 18. mars 2017

It will be level 5 autonomy. And the steering wheel is getting removed

Sparky | 18. mars 2017

If so it will be illegal to leave your driveway.

andy.connor.e | 19. mars 2017

Worse. The windshield will be removed since driving is no longer necessary due to autonomy.

gavinfaulkner | 19. mars 2017

@andy.connor.e

Then where would the beautiful HUD be projected?

(Suggestion: directly onto the "drivers" retina)

Then what would prevent the passengers from swallowing insects and blowing out their bouffants?

(Suggestion: an equal but outwardly directed blast of air to counteract the incoming rush of air.)

Best solution: A windscreen.

Autonomy might be coming, but passengers still need to be protected and informed.

andy.connor.e | 19. mars 2017

Thats a trick question @gavin

There wont be a HUD because you wont be driving anymore. I heard they were even going to implement a full size mattress instead of carseats.

gavinfaulkner | 19. mars 2017

@andy.connor.e

I have just realised that your above comments might be an attempt at irony. Nevertheless I feel compelled to address the first one too since I've been a complete noob.

As for the steering wheel removal I think this makes quite a bit of sense. However, the ability for human control shouldn't be eliminated entirely so there should be some kind of manual redundant backup system.

I remember watching a few youtube videos that demonstrated prototype cars with joystick or yoke controls in the centre division between the seats and even one in the drivers side door. This seems ideal for eliminating the production changes required for switching between left and right hand side driving configurations. If a central joystick was used then the whole left/right paradigm would fly out the window. Add extra pedals to the "passenger" side and you could toss a coin to decide who drives. Better yet, the joystick could have a throttle on it, or forward and backward rocking of the joystick/yoke would control acceleration/breaking.

Of course, there are disadvantages. A joystick based control system has often been described as unsatisfying and I think part of this is because it has a limited range of movement. Any tiny adjustment of the joystick creates a large change in direction of the wheels and it becomes difficult to control. People have become habituated to the wheel paradigm and even though everything is electronic these days there is still a certain amount of trust that comes from turning a big giant wheel in front of you that can't be duplicated with a joystick in one hand.

Bear in mind though that this would be only used as a backup, to drive where autopilot cannot, to manoeuvre in off road or unusual driveway conditions or simply provide driving pleasure for those who are addicted to controlling their moving death machines and need a power trip because they have control freak personalities (or are recovering petrol-heads, presumably one and the same thing). The joystick could fold away when not in use. More cabin space, less clutter, .

Carl Thompson | 19. mars 2017

gavinfaulkner:
"I remember watching a few youtube videos that demonstrated prototype cars with joystick or yoke controls in the centre division between the seats and even one in the drivers side door. This seems ideal for eliminating the production changes required for switching between left and right hand side driving configurations. If a central joystick was used then the whole left/right paradigm would fly out the window. Add extra pedals to the "passenger" side and you could toss a coin to decide who drives. Better yet, the joystick could have a throttle on it, or forward and backward rocking of the joystick/yoke would control acceleration/breaking."

It would be too easy for the passenger to accidentally knock your hand and cause the car to veer out of control. And how would you adjust the music / map / whatever on the center screen while keeping a hand on the steering control? And how would you operate it with your knee so that you can enjoy a smoke and a Big Mac while driving?

No, I think the controls should use left and right levers like old-school tanks.

Carl

andy.connor.e | 19. mars 2017

Dude if you take me at all serious on this topic, i feel pretty bad for you.

andy.connor.e | 19. mars 2017

But on the joystick topic, they might integrate Xbox controller connectivity for full driver control.

Badbot | 21. mars 2017

wrap the joystick with a rag so the dog can drive it

SamO | 28. mars 2017

Level 4 is coming "soon" but it remains to be seen whether current sensors will be capable of 24/365 Level 5 Autonomy.

But if Tesla has Level 5 with the current sensors, Tesla owns the auto market for years to come.