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Model 3 lowering expectations with each passing day...

Model 3 lowering expectations with each passing day...

Elon is doing a damn good job of talking me out of the car.... what color and wheel size for the initial configuration? what gives?

I was/am hoping options for battery size and GLASS ROOF (Must have for me).. don't care about battery size.

We will see... apparently 4 hour wait on 3/31 and seeking hourly updates on M3 turning to be sour.... (not?).

SamO | 06. juni 2017

you are just experiencing the anxiety of "the wait."

enjoy.

burdogg | 06. juni 2017

I don't think we are realizing that the car was NEVER expected to start shipping in JULY. Remember, he initially said We HOPE to have everything ready by July but that is way pushing it and doubt we will make it. But it is the goal and if we don't have a goal, then we won't. (I totally paraphrased).

Most all of us were expecting the first cars to roll off at the end of this year. By that point, you will have the options open up - as he is even saying maybe AWD will be ready by end of year, if not, first of the year.

It truly is AMAZING that they are even delivering cars in July. Go look through past and you will see, the whole media even was stating that they would be lucky to deliver any cars in 2017.

So, there is a reason to only offer a handful of options up front, if you don't like it, wait until those options are available and you probably will still get the car when you originally THOUGHT you would get it back when you first reserved.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 06. juni 2017

SamO: +21!

burdogg: +21!

skappag: Chill. Everything will be fine. Elon is trying to talk others into buying a Model S or Model X. Not trying to talk you out of buying a Model ☰.

Frank99 | 06. juni 2017

+42, burdogg.

The expectations I had when I plunked down $1000 were significantly different than my hopes today. I was expecting to get a car in 2018, or possibly 2019, when I reserved. I was expecting a 200 mile EV equivalent of a Honda Accord with a Tesla nameplate. What I'm getting instead is a car far better looking (better looking than just about anything under $100K) with performance that I wasn't expecting, and HOPING to get it a year early.

As Burdogg said, the options will be there - just push the delivery date back to when you originally thought you'd get one.

skappag | 06. juni 2017

Sorry, missed mentioning an important point .... one big reason I want to be the first ones is to make sure I qualify for the full federal tax credit ($7500). To few, that amount may seem trivial but 7.5K will help me a lot.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 06. juni 2017

skappag: Or, you could simply delay your purchase until you have saved an additional $7,500 and all the options you want are available. Sorted.

burdogg | 06. juni 2017

skappag - completely understand. I think that even if you wait until Feb you will get the full tax credit, and by then, I would bet you get the options you want.

Here is how it works: When tesla hits 200,000 sales in the US
The rest of that quarter gets full credit
Next full quarter gets full credit
Third full quarter gets half credit
Last (4th) quarter gets 1/4 credit

So if they don't hit 200,000 in US until Oct, the full tax credit will be had on all vehicles delivered until end of March.

Some have postulated that they may not hit it until Jan time frame, but with all that is going on, it may be possible the last quarter they hit it.

Either way, I think you have enough time to get what you want (maybe pushing it on AWD). But that is just my opinion, and when it comes to hard earned money, I don't want to be blamed for being wrong :)

ReD eXiLe ms us | 06. juni 2017

burdogg: No. The IRS uses the term 'calendar quarter'. That appears to mean...

JAN | FEB | MAR
APR | MAY | JUN
JUL | AUG | SEP
OCT | NOV | DEC

So, the first part of what you wrote is true, to a point. That is, if the 200,000th qualifying vehicle is Delivered anytime from October 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 -- the full $7,500 Federal EV Tax Credit will be available through March 31, 2018.

But subsequent phaseout periods each cover TWO calendar quarters, not just one, as you wrote.
So, continuing the example above -- the $3,750 amount would be available for all U.S. Deliveries made from April 1, 2018 through September 30, 2018. And the final reduction to $1,875 would be in effect for all U.S. Deliveries made from October 1, 2018 through March 31, 2019. Then, every U.S. Delivery from April 1, 2019 forward would no longer be eligible for the Federal EV Tax Credit.

Thus, why I am among those that argue Tesla should defer Delivery of the 200,000th unit in the U.S. to early January 2018, because that would move the last and final day of eligible purchase to June 30, 2019 instead. Production should be at or over 10,000 units per week before that time, so that is potentially over 70,000 more Customers that could at least get the $1,875 amount as an incentive (assuming 60% U.S. Deliveries for that last three months).

12Brent | 06. juni 2017

I am much more worried about Trump taking away the EV credit than I am worried about missing out. Tesla will certainly have an eye on their 200,000 car and will get production ready to roll out as many as possible to take advantage of the phase out period. I waited in line to be at the front on March 31st, but I'm waiting longer to get the Dual motor option, which is a no-brainer if you live in CO. Faster car, more range, good in snow... listed in order of importance. :)

burdogg | 06. juni 2017

Sorry Red - i was multitasking - on a conference call as I typed :)

I meant Calendar Quarter and yes each one covers 2 full calendar quarters (Not sure how I messed that all up :)

For some reason, my head was not working, my apologies - thanks for keeping me straight :)

ReD eXiLe ms us | 06. juni 2017

12Brent: As much as President Trump likes to 'lead from the top down' there are certain things he absolutely will not be able to do. Elon Musk has warned since early 2013 that the winds of change in political circles may well eliminate EV Incentives before buyers of Tesla Generation III cars could take advantage of them. But attempting to spite Tesla, a Real World 'America First!' company would not be to President Trump's advantage in any way. Besides his remaining 'advisers' likely all still believe that Tesla is on the brink of failure 'any day now' and that the Federal EV Tax Incentives will expire 'soon' thereby guaranteeing their imminent failure. It is cars like the BOLT and LEAF that really need those incentives most. They are just an extra bonus for Tesla customers.

tstolz | 06. juni 2017

Elon is trying to manage expectations and be real about how the roll-out will work. It makes sense to limit the number of configurations initially since demand is through the roof as is. If the configuration you are after happens to be what Tesla rolls out .. you will be elated. If you have to wait a few months .. so be it. I want a M3D ... so I'll wait. No biggie.

12Brent | 06. juni 2017

@ReD I hope so, but Trump does a lot of stupid things, and cutting off his nose to spite his face would fall right in line with his M.O. I could easily see him being butt-hurt by Elon speaking up about climate change and have him take petty measures to show that he's "the boss". My concerns are more related to my own selfishness than they are being worried about Tesla. I think Tesla will be just fine either way. Do I need the tax credit? No. But the federal credit combined with the CO credit will go a long way towards configuring a well optioned M3.

burdogg | 06. juni 2017

12 Brent - yeah, those CO credits and fed were really nice and helped me convince my wife for the S, and then eventually the X - and that was when CO was at $6,000. Now they are at $5,000. I hear rumors of them maybe doing away with the state one?

12Brent | 06. juni 2017

@burdogg there is a bill to repeal it, effective January 1st, 2018 (SB17-188). I think it has passed the senate (or will) but I can't imagine it'll pass the house because the Democrats have a good majority there. They'd need 5 Democrats to vote in favor of repeal and I'd think that'd be unlikely. Especially given the current political climate (pun somewhat intended). It is supposed to end in 2021 if it is not repealed.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 06. juni 2017

Does CO still limit Tesla to a maximum of two locations in the State?

M3München | 06. juni 2017

Are we assuming at this point that this virtually uncusomizable Model 3 will be the $35,000 version (no upgraded tires or paint)? If so, I think Tesla might burn through the number of people in line who want the base version fairly quickly. model3tracker dot info shows 6.33% want "nearly bare bones." Add to that "bare bones + Autopilot" and we'd get a few more I guess.

Just for kicks let's say there are 500,000 reservations and 10% of reserve-ees want barebones or barebones with AP. That's still 50k cars to produce, which would take a while given the slow ramp-up.

This shows a lot of potential to jump to the front of the queue if you're keen on the initial offering.

Bersus | 06. juni 2017

come to Italy: NO tax credit whatsoever, full VAT applied!
on a 35k car? You get 7,5k off, i have to add (at least) 7,5k VAT!
boy am i lucky or what?

M3München | 07. juni 2017

I have to add 19% VAT in Germany, but we thankfully do have a 4000€ rebate, and no "licence-plate-fee" for 10 years.

Ross1 | 07. juni 2017

https://www.theverge DOT com/2017/6/6/15750228/elon-musk-tesla-model-3-model-y-twitter-red-wine

M3, MY, semi, new products...

jcd82 | 07. juni 2017

If I take delivery in MA but then move to another state within the tax year of taking delivery would it still be possible to get the MA state incentive (if any remains)?

gatorj31 | 07. juni 2017

Jcd82, pretty sure it must be purchased in the state you claim the credit in.

COrich | 07. juni 2017

12Brent, the bill to eliminate the CO income tax credit (SB17-188) never even made it to the second reading during this session. Hopefully it will die completely during the next session.

At least for now, the credit will survive into 2018.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 07. juni 2017

jcd82: You should probably check this out...

IMPLEMENTATION MANUAL
FOR THE FY 2014-15
MASSACHUSETTS OFFERS REBATES FOR ELECTRIC
VEHICLES (MOR-EV) PROGRAM

B. Vehicle Purchaser or Lessee Duties and Requirements
The vehicle purchaser or lessee is responsible for submitting the rebate application and providing all required documentation to the Administrator. Eligible vehicle purchasers or lessees must accept the rebate directly – MOR-EV does not provide an option to assign the rebate to a vehicle seller or lessor (i.e. vehicle dealer or manufacturer).

To receive a MOR-EV rebate, a vehicle purchaser or lessee must:

a. Be a private individual that is a resident of Massachusetts. Proof of Massachusetts residency will be required to complete a MOR-EV application. Businesses, fleets and other entities are not eligible to apply.
· Active duty military members stationed in Massachusetts with a temporary Massachusetts residential address, but with permanent residency in another state are eligible to apply and may use military orders in lieu of other proof of residence documentation.
b. Purchase or lease a new eligible vehicle as specified in Section A of this Implementation Manual.
c. Except as otherwise specified in A.II., above, submit a MOR-EV application within 3 months of the vehicle purchase or lease date, after taking possession of the vehicle, and prior to exhaustion of available rebate funds. Vehicle purchase or lease date must be on or after start of program on June 18, 2014.
d. Not make or allow any modifications to the vehicle’s emissions control systems, hardware, software calibrations, or hybrid system.
e. Commit that any emission reductions generated by the purchased vehicle will not be used as marketable emission reduction credits, to offset any emission reduction obligation of any person, or to generate a compliance extension or extra credit for determining regulatory compliance.
f. Retain ownership of the vehicle for a minimum of 36 consecutive months immediately after the vehicle purchase or lease date.
· Lease terms of at least 36 months are required for program eligibility.
· Resale of a MOR-EV vehicle for financial gain within 36 months is prohibited.
g. Register the new vehicle with the RMV for a minimum of 36 consecutive months for use in Massachusetts.

https://mor-ev.org/frequently-asked-questions#Application10

https://mor-ev.org/sites/default/files/docs/Implementation%20Manual%20fo...

jcd82 | 07. juni 2017

Thanks!

12Brent | 07. juni 2017

@COrich thanks, that's good to know. I guess what I remembered was that it made it through Senate Finance sub committee... hopefully it dies for good soon.

4fishtankz | 07. juni 2017

I was standing in line too, and I am in a wait and see mode right now. All that "anti-sell" is creating a lot of anxiety and doubt. All this is not working on persuading me buying an S since I wanted a smaller car than the S. I'll wait to see the configuration page and final figures and monthly payments to make up my mind. A bigger battery and super charging were on my list of must haves, and I want to see how that center console works and the ergonomics of the car.

bmalloy0 | 07. juni 2017

So far the only thing that's made me second-guess my reservation is the slew of sub-$40k CPO Model S's that Tesla just put up. Even that isn't enough though.

4fishtankz | 07. juni 2017

Just had another thought, The latest news was that in the beginning that only the rear wheel drive will be available and the only choices we would have is paint color and wheel size. Depending on what this initial configuration is, I don't know if I will order it or wait for what I want. I wonder how many of the initial 300,000 plus reservations feel the same way and by doing this, we are just punting the same number of reservations down the road a little.

But then, if people are allowed to see what's coming up and are allowed to pre-order those options, they can see what the most popular configuration is and gear up for that next?

Like I said before, waiting to see.

SamO | 07. juni 2017

@4fish,

If you are feeling anxious, buy a used Model S/X. That is the point of these comments. Continuing to sell those vehicles.

This is the 10th(ish) time they've said "WE ARE ANTI-SELLING MODEL 3."

4fishtankz | 07. juni 2017

No SamO, that's the whole point. I know that's the intention, to push people to buy the S. I had plenty of opportunities to go that route for years but the S is as always before, too big and I'm not going to be forced to buy a car that isn't right for me. I had a taste of Tesla with my RAV4 EV and have been waiting since they announced that they would make a mass market car to get one (many years before the March 31 reservation). I even saw the roadster, but it was too low to the ground to get in and out of, LOL. I've been waiting and anticipating this car a long time, and the anxiety is that it will be watered down to the point it won't meet my needs either. In that case I won't get either car.

Some of news of the specs have been encouraging, and then they do an anti sell and makes me wonder if the car will have the features I want.

SamO | 07. juni 2017

@4fish,

1. You are not "going to be forced to buy a car that isn't right for [you]."

2. Model 3 will not "be watered down to the point it won't meet [your] needs either."

This will be a 215-350 mile range EV with:

a. High speed Supercharging Access
b. Room for 5.
c. Tons of storage.
d. Full Self Driving
e. Tesla Network

What is it missing?

PhillyGal | 07. juni 2017

@bmalloy0 - You win today!

"So far the only thing that's made me second-guess my reservation is the slew of sub-$40k CPO Model S's that Tesla just put up." +100

4fishtankz | 07. juni 2017

I don't care about the full self driving feature, with a world where you feel less in control each day, at least I want to feel in control of my car when I drive, LOL.

SUN 2 DRV | 07. juni 2017

They've never taken announced features out of the Model 3. They've only said two "anti-sell" things:

* some people's personal expectations have gone beyond what Tesla intended and promised
* not all promised and intended features will be available at the initial introduction.

Neither of those should be a surprise to anyone...

El Mirio | 07. juni 2017

I find it surprising that people do not appreciate the fact that Tesla pulled forward their production schedule by two years!

270K+ depositors expected the car by 2019/2020 and some are now lamenting that options might not come out from the getgo. No comprendo!

akgolf | 07. juni 2017

Some people just like to complain.

Lots of "the glass is half full" folks here.

burdogg | 07. juni 2017

akgolf - wait, where did you get a glass from? Tesla didn't send me a glass so I can't even get it half full. Great...On the phone I go again with my Tesla rep :)

El Mirio | 07. juni 2017

@akgolf
i suggest we hire these for-rent-mourners to create proper atmosphere around the "glass half full" folks.

http://www.rentamourner.co.uk/

akgolf | 07. juni 2017

Unfortunately burdogg I had to supply my own glass, I can only imagine it's another cost savings measure for the 3. Or perhaps they were afraid some would like the glass, others would think it's not like the glass mom gave me. Who knows?

At first El Mirio I thought the rent a mourner was funny, and then sad.

bricha55 | 07. juni 2017

@burdogg I'm with you, how am I supposed to complain about the glass being half empty when they haven't even sent me the glass yet... What a mess!

Also as someone who constantly works at small up and coming companies, I wish I could scale 10% as well as Tesla is. They are literally building this thing from the ground up at speeds an established player can't match! And they are doing it in an industry that requires an insane amount of capital. there is a reason that other than Tesla there hasn't been a new successful american car company in over 90 years. Its hard, and the current players are HUGE with huge budgets.

bricha55 | 07. juni 2017

@burdogg I'm with you, how am I supposed to complain about the glass being half empty when they haven't even sent me the glass yet... What a mess!

Also as someone who constantly works at small up and coming companies, I wish I could scale 10% as well as Tesla is. They are literally building this thing from the ground up at speeds an established player can't match! And they are doing it in an industry that requires an insane amount of capital. there is a reason that other than Tesla there hasn't been a new successful american car company in over 90 years. Its hard, and the current players are HUGE with huge budgets.

rxlawdude | 07. juni 2017

So if the first M3 deliveries are in July, and it's now early June, when would we expect to see the Design Center or other ordering functionality go live?

Jcastillo18 | 07. juni 2017

As long as it's a Tesla I'm happy

Frank99 | 07. juni 2017
SamO | 07. juni 2017

@rxlawdude,

Configurator active "next month." per the annual meeting.

mos6507 | 07. juni 2017

"What is it missing?"

Spaceship steering (aka HUD/2nd display, even an option)
Controllable vent airflow
HEPA filter option
Air suspension option

KP in NPT | 07. juni 2017

You guys should just cancel your reservation now. The car isn't out yet but clearly it will suck.

Xerogas | 07. juni 2017

Just because Elon said you could only pick color and wheels doesn't mean it won't have a glass roof. The first ones off the line might be nicely-equipped packages with lots of options, selling for more than base $35K. That's how they rolled out the first S models, so they could recoup some cash from early adopters who are willing to pay more.

Yes, I know some people here claim the press would vilify them if they don't sell it for $35K, but nobody said *when* the $35K ones would first ship. And I imagine stockholders would rejoice in a higher margin to help with cash flow.

@skappag, you might just get lucky and have your exact wish list available as the first package off the line!

akgolf | 07. juni 2017

I'm a stockholder and would prefer and expect the base model to be available at launch.

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